Everything That Is The NFL: Week 5

Welcome back Team 990.com readers to more NFL analysis from me Jimmy G. Thank you for the emails, please continue sending them to jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com. I’ll go into the mailbag next week, time permitting, I promise.

Anyway, lots to cover from today’s action, so let’s get to it.


What Was Bobby Petrino Thinking?

Situation: Falcons down 7 to the Titans. Falcons have a first and goal at the 1 yard line with 2 minutes remaining.

4 down territory, Falcons will not get the ball back if they fail, so the clock is irrelevant.

I expected the Falcons to call 4 straight running plays until they stuffed the ball into the end zone. They had 4 plays to work with. If one doesn’t work another will. Nothing complicated.

Instead on first down Bobby Petrino calls for a pitch/toss to Warwick Dunn that was not going to start developing until Dunn was 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage. How can Coach Petrino call for a slow developing play like this?

How difficult would it have been to just run the ball normally! By this time, Byron Leftwich had replaced Joey Harrington, and he looked awful. At the time he was 2 of 6 for 28 yards and totally out of sync with his receivers, which is normal for someone still learning the playbook. How can the Falcons call for anything other than a simple handoff?

Strong rush up the middle, Leftwich is hit as he turns to toss the ball to Dunn, fumbles, Dunn recovers at the 9 yard line. 8 yard loss. Now it is 2nd down from the 9 and the strategy completely changes.

Whereas before the Falcons had the luxury of minimizing the struggling Byron Leftwich by running 4 times, now they are in an obvious passing situation. 2 incomplete passes, mixed in with an offside by Tennessee gave the Falcons one last chance at the 4 yard line.

The 8 yard loss came back to haunt the Falcons. 4th and goal from the 4 is a passing situation, and Byron Leftwich is the Falcon quarterback. Leftwich got sacked and for the 2nd time in 3 weeks a team with a first and goal from the 1 fails to force overtime (Washington blowing the game against the Giants is the other: scroll down to my Week 3 thoughts for more information)

I Hope Trent Green Will Be Okay

As a Chiefs fan, I loved watching Trent Green’s aerial theatrics in the Dick Vermeil era.

Herman Edwards took over last year and I had the same high hopes that Trent would continue to excel, hopefully leading us to a playoff spot.

Trent missed 8 games in 2006 due to a serious concussion. When he came back, he led the Chiefs to the playoffs despite struggling down the stretch.

In the offseason however, Trent was traded to Miami. While I was sad to see him go, I was also happy for Trent. With the Dolphins he would remain a starting quarterback, something that Coach Edwards was not going to guarantee.

Now Trent Green has suffered another concussion, on a play where he showed just how far he’ll go to help his team: he provided a block on a running play.

Here’s hoping that whatever happens from now on, Trent Green makes the right decision as regards his future.

Some Quick Statistical Bits And Pieces

(1)The Packers were outrushed in each of their first 4 games, yet they managed to go 4-0. The Pack outrushed the Bears tonight and lost.

(2)There have been 2085 regular season games played since the start of the 1999 season. On ten occasions has a team run the ball so poorly that they gained 10 yards or less in a game. Would you have imagined that the Kansas City Chiefs, with Larry Johnson and the more than capable Michael Bennett would be one of those teams? The Chiefs ran for a pitiful 10 yards on 10 attempts.

(3)The Jacksonville Jaguars gave up 282 rushing yards to Tennessee on opening day and lost. Since then, the Jags have given up, in order, 82, 47 and 10. They have won all three games.

(4)The Falcons were a PLUS THREE in the turnover differential department against the Titans.

In 2006, teams with a plus three were 32-1. Since 2000, teams with a plus three turnover differential in a game are 229-25, a winning percentage of 90.2%

The Falcons lost to the Titans.

(5)Teams that averaged 2.5 yards a pass play more than their opponents in a game were 27-3 in 2007 heading into Week 5. The Chargers, Steelers and Texans all averaged 2.5 yards per pass play more than their opponents in Week 5. And the won. Yards Per Pass Play is such an important statistic. I’ll delve more into that subject in the coming weeks.


I’ll Stop Criticizing Tom Coughlin

Two weeks ago I criticized Tom Coughlin for not calling a timeout to give Eli Manning one final possession in the 1st half against the Redskins.

Against the Jets, down 14-7 with 25 seconds left in the half, 2 timeouts, on his own 21 yard line, I expected Coughlin to run out the clock.

He didn’t. Eli Manning came out throwing and he was picked off on the first play. The Jets kicked a field goal and took a 10 point lead at halftime.

I am not criticizing Coach Coughlin. He made the right call. 25 seconds is enough time to try two passes up the middle and perhaps a sideline pattern.

Sometimes you have to take risks and Coughlin was ready and willing.

When the Giants were 0-2, the media was calling for Coughlin to be fired. Now the Giants are 3-2. People everywhere should note that under Tom Coughlin, the Giants have made the playoffs 2 years in a row. If things continue to go well, that number could jump to three. Who among us will be talking then?

The Saints Are Not Marching In

The Saints are 0-4 and there is one stat that is SCREAMING to be heard.

Last season, the Saints under Drew Brees threw for 4509 yards on 604 pass plays, an average of 7.47 yards per pass play. The league average was 6.02.

The league average yards per pass play this season (pass attempts plus sacks) has increased to 6.20.

The Saints in 2007 however, have regressed, and it is not a pretty sight.

Drew Brees has taken every snap and has 906 net passing yards on 177 pass attempts and 4 sacks. The Saints average yards per pass play: 5.01.

That is a difference of ALMOST TWO AND A HALF YARDS per pass play (7.47 less 5.01).

Not only that, but in 2006 the Saints opponents threw for 2854 net passing yards on 512 dropbacks, an average of 5.57 yards a pass play.

In 2007, the Saints are giving up an astronomical 9.47 yards a pass play (872 net yards on 92 dropbacks). THAT IS ALMOST 4 YARDS MORE PER PASS PLAY than in 2006.

The math is incredibly scary:

On offense: a net loss of 2.47 yards per pass play compared to 2006
On defense: a net loss of 3.90 yards per pass play compared to 2006.

Add it up: 2.47 plus 3.90 equals 6.37 yards per pass play that the Saints have lost in 2007.

And you wonder why the Saints are winless.

Turn Out The Lights...The Party’s Over

It is a broken record however the music must be repeated...again.

0 and 5 teams do not make the playoffs. Are you listening Rams and Dolphins fans? Saints fans, you might be next.

Since the 1995 expansion, 24 teams have started the season 0 and 5. None made the playoffs.

2 teams were able to finish at 8-8: (Washington 2001 and Tennessee 2006)
6 teams finished at 2-14
5 teams finished at 3-13
4 teams finished at 4-12
7 teams finished between 5 -11 and 7-9

The Lights Are Flickering....The Party’s Almost Over

In Mike Shanahan’s first 12 seasons, the Denver Broncos have made the playoffs 7 times.

In 6 of those 7 seasons, the Broncos started either 4-1 or 5-0.

The one exception: 2000. After a 2-3 start, the Broncos won 9 of their last 11 and qualified as a wild card before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Ravens.

After the shellacking at the hands of the Chargers, the Broncos are 2-3. Are there any similarities between version 2007 and version 2000?

Not really. In 2000, the Broncos had the easiest adjusted schedule in the NFL. Their opponents had a combined record of 98-142 (when adjusted to exclude Bronco games)

If you take the argument further, the 2000 Broncos have had the easiest schedule in the NFL this ENTIRE decade. That certainly helped get them to 11-5 in 2000.

Here is the rest of the top 10
1. Denver 2000 98-142 .408
2. Oakland 2000 104-136 .433
3. Pittsburgh 2001 104-136 .433
4. Kansas City 2003 104-136 .433
5. Arizona 2001 105-135 .438
6. Baltimore 2000 105-135 .438
7. San Francisco 2000 105-135 .438
8. New Orleans 2000 106-134 .441
9. Atlanta 2004 106-134 .441
10. Green Bay 2001, Seattle 2004, Chicago 2006, Seattle 2005 and St Louis 2003 all tied with adjusted opponents records of 107-133 .446

In 2007, looking at the Bronco schedule, there doesn’t seem to be many ‘easy games’.

The Broncos 16 opponents in 2007 have a combined record of 41-33, 39-30 if you adjust the Broncos record from the equation. We may be looking at a situation where Bronco opponents look at Denver on the schedule and say “hmmmmm....that is one we should win”.


What Does A 4-1 Record Really Mean?

A 4-1 record does not give you any guarantee of a playoff spot, but it certainly helps.

The Steelers and the Packers, and perhaps the Cowboys if they lose to the Bills, fit into this category.

So what about a 4-1 start? Let’s look at this decade as an example.

In 2006, 8 teams started 4-1. Two teams missed the playoffs: Denver and St Louis.

In 2005, all three teams that started 4-1 made the playoffs.

In 2004, 6 teams started 4-1. One team missed the playoffs: The NY Giants.

In 2003, 3 of the 4 teams starting 4-1 made the playoffs: The Dolphins did not.

In 2002, 9 teams started 4-1: only five made the playoffs. Denver (as in 2006), Miami (as in 2003) New Orleans and San Diego did not.

In 2001, all five teams starting 4-1 qualified for the playoffs.

In 2000, 4 of the 5 teams that started 4-1 made the playoffs: the NY Jets were the exception.

There you have it: 31 of the 40 teams this decade that started the season 4-1 ended up in the postseason.

Okay, One Final Time With Early Season Records....I Promise

This section fits segues perfectly for the 1-4 Jets and the 1-4 Falcons, and after the Monday night game, perhaps the Bills.

Next week, three teams at 1-3 return to action: the Bengals, Vikings and Eagles. They may have to cancel any travel plans starting in early January.

Since the NFL expanded to 30 teams in 1995, 62 teams started the season with a 1-4 record. Only three teams ended up in the playoffs.

The exceptions: the Jets and Titans in 2002, and the Packers in 2004.

59 out of 62 that started 1-4 failed to make the playoffs. Not good odds.

Kudos To The Redskins For A Speedy Recovery

I was worried about the Washington Redskins. They had a week off to forget about the debacle against the Giants, where they blew a 14 point 2nd half lead. I thought the bye week came at the wrong time.

The Skins defence forgot. They showed up to play, sacking Jon Kitna five times and holding the Lions offense to a meagre 76 yards on 34 dropbacks (29 passes plus the 5 sacks) If you are calculating, that is 2.23 yards a dropback against a Lions offense that, in the first 4 games averaged 7.7, 6.0, 7.1 and 7.2 yards a pass play.

And what about Jason Campbell? How would Campbell recover after being responsible for the brutal clock management against the Giants that prevented the Skins from getting an additional play at the goal line to force overtime?

23 of 29 for 248 yards, 2 touchdowns, no interceptions, no sacks.

The Skins are 3-1 with a brutal schedule upcoming: at 4-1 Green Bay, home to the surging 3-2 Cardinals and at 5-0 New England. They needed this win.

Time Management Supervisor Needed for Mike Nolan And The 49ers?

I criticized San Francisco Head Coach Mike Nolan for not gambling on 4th down with less than 6 minutes to play last week against Seattle down three scores. I hate picking on him again but I cannot resist nitpicking.

Situation: Ravens lead 9-7, they have the ball at their 48 yard line with 2:15 left in the 4th quarter.
It is 3rd down and 4.

The 49ers need the ball back. They only have one timeout remaining, plus the 2 minute warning.

If the 49ers stop the Ravens on this 3rd down play, they can let the clock run to the 2 minute warning, receive the punt and start their final drive with the timeout still in their pocket. Of course if the Ravens decide to pass and they throw incomplete, the Niners can start their drive before the 2 minute warning, in effect getting one extra play.

However, if the Ravens were to get a first down on this 3rd down play, the Niners would have to spend their timeout on defence. Does it matter if they spend the timeout before or after the 2 minute warning?

Steve McNair found Derrick Mason for an 18 yard gain and a first down, in bounds, clock moving with 2:10 left.

Let’s do the calculations for Niners Head Coach Mike Nolan.

If Coach Nolan calls his final timeout immediately, with 2:10 left, the Ravens would have to snap the ball before the 2 minute warning. Assuming the Ravens don’t get a first down on this play, the clock would stop on 2nd down with 2:00 remaining.

If Ravens coach Brian Billick does the expected, which is run the ball twice, the following would occur,:

(1)On 2nd down, Ravens snap the ball at 2:00,
(2)the play would be whistled dead at 1:55, play clock reset at 40
(3)On 3rd down Ravens snap the ball at 1:16 (1:55 less 39 seconds)
(4)If no first down occurs, and that admittedly is a big if, the Ravens would call a timeout to either bring out their field goal or punting unit once the play clock reads 1 second.

Recap: Mike Nolan calls timeout before the 2 minute warning, the Ravens snap the ball at 2:00 and 1:16, play clock resets at 1:11, runs 39 seconds before the Ravens call their timeout. Got that?

If all this happens, the Ravens would either punt or kick a long field goal with 28 seconds to play. They would most likely punt because a missed long field would give the Niners excellent field position and it is only a two point game.

Best case scenario: the Niners get the ball back with about 20 seconds, maybe 22 seconds left in the game deep in their own territory.

I realize that there isn’t much time but stranger things have happened.

But the only way for the Niners to get even 22 seconds on their final drive is to call a timeout BEFORE the 2 minute warning.

So what did Coach Nolan do? He let the clock run down to 2 minutes without taking his final timeout.

In effect, if he calls his timeout with 1:55 remaining and it is 2nd down he has lost 5 precious seconds for a potential final drive.

We’ve already established that the best case scenario for a final drive is perhaps 22 seconds. By not calling his timeout until AFTER the 2 minute warning, Coach Nolan took 5 seconds off the clock for his team.

5 seconds might not seem like much, but in football, 5 seconds equals one additional play. That is a lot of time.

What happened in the end? The Ravens ran the ball at 2:00 when it was first down, and the Niners hemmed and hawed until calling their final timeout with 1:47 left. They let 8 precious seconds tick away (the play was whistled dead at 1:55) for no reason.

Then on the next play, Willis McGahee ran for a first down, in effect, making the last few paragraphs meaningless. Unless, of course, the Niners have a similar situation come up in a future game and make the same mistakes.

Hopefully this is the last time I criticize Coach Nolan.

And that’s it for me Jimmy G. I hope you enjoyed reading my analysis. I’ll be back later this week with my predictions for Week 6 in the NFL.

Until then, goodbye.