A Recap of Week 4 in the National Football League with Jimmy G

Welcome to the Week 4 NFL recap with Jimmy G of the Team 990. Any comments, requests and information you want to pass along to readers of the Team 990 web site and of this blog can be sent to me jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com

In this edition, I’ll discuss the following:

-4th Quarter of the Giants-Eagles game: Hurry Up Offense?
-Theories of clock management
-The forgotten Damon Huard
-The Bears play selection against Detroit
-Plays from scrimmage: a relevant stat?
-The new boss in Arizona
-Can an 0-4 team make the playoffs?
-Can a 1-3 team make the playoffs?
-Should the 49ers have punted in the 4th quarter against Seattle?

Next week’s edition will feature an in depth analysis of San Diego Head Coach Norv Turner titled “Norv Turner: Should He Be An NFL Head Coach?” The title tells you everything you need to know about what might be inside. Any comments on this issue can be sent to jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com Your comments will be included.

BUT FIRST...A RECAP OF WEEK 4
Alert to Chicago Bears fans....Alert to Chicago Bears fans

Let us add to last weeks statistical note about yards per pass attempt and turnover differential
not going the Bears’ way.

The Bears have lost the turnover battle and have thrown for fewer yards per pass play than their opponents in four straight games.

How often does this happen? And more importantly, how successful are these teams?

Nine teams have lost both these important categories in four straight games since the 2000 season.

How did they do? If you are a Bears fan you might want to look away.

The list in chronological order::
Cleveland Weeks 13-16 2000 3-13
Cincinnati Weeks 9-12 2000 4-12
Minnesota Weeks 1-4 2002 6-10
NY Giants Weeks 11-14 2003 4-12
Oakland Weeks 3-6 2004 5-11
San Francisco Weeks 11-14 2005 4-12
Houston Weeks 1-4 2005 2-14
Tampa Bay Weeks 11-14 2006 4-12
Minnesota Weeks 7-10 2006 5-11

As you can see, the best record was Minnesota’s 6-10 in 2002.

Hopefully, the Bears can overcome their 1-3 start and not suffer the same fate.


TimeOuts and Andy Reid

Last week, I excorciated Redskin coach Joe Gibbs for poor clock management. This week it is time to critique another NFC East coach.

Situation: down 16-0 to the Giants, the Eagles face a 4th and 19 from the Giants 35 yard line. Clock at 13:00 remaining in the 4th quarter and moving. Eagles have two timeouts remaining.

Option 1: Punt the football and hope to stick the Giants inside the 10. Force a three and out and use the field position gain to shorten the field on your next possession.

Option 2: Attempt a 53 yard field goal. Benefit is that it cuts the lead to 13. Drawback is that if you miss the Giants get the ball at their 43. Then they get the short field.

Option 3: Go for it. The least likely option. 19 yards inside your opponents 35 is a risky proposition. The drawback is the same as that in Option 2. Fail and the Giants get great field position.

The one thing that Andy Reid cannot afford to do is call a timeout because his Eagles are trailing by two scores.

If the Eagles are to get a final opportunity to win or tie the game they will have to (a)put points on the board soon and (b)get a defensive stop in the last few minutes of the game.

Former Raider coach John Madden has taught a simple clock management theory for many years: timeouts should be used exclusively in the last three minutes of a game to (a)stop the clock so you can set up important plays when your team is driving for the final time or (b)stop the clock on defense in order to give your offense one final possession.

Timeouts should be wrapped around the two minute warning for maximum clock savings.

What did the Eagles do? The Eagles were poorly prepared: the punting unit and field goal were on the field at the same time. The clock ran down to 12:56 before the Eagles had to call timeout.

That left them with just one. Ironically, the Eagles used Option 2, the option I would have avoided, and it worked. Field goal was good from 53. Eagles down 16-3.

However, losing a timeout was costly. Despite the field goal, the Eagles were still down two possessions. On plays like this, proper communication from the sideline is vital, and in this instance, Andy Reid failed.

The Eagles Final Drive versus the Giants: Is This A Hurry Up Offense

The Eagles got the ball back with 6:36 remaining on their 23 yard line, down 16-3, one timeout remaining. Needing two scores, the Eagles came out in their hurry up offense.

Was it a hurry up offense? Normally, when teams are in a 2 minute drill, they snap the ball 20-22 seconds after the previous play ends, assuming the play is in bounds.

After a completion to Reggie Brown for a 6 yard gain on the first play, it took Donovan McNabb 31 seconds of game clock to receive the snap.

After Correll Buckhalter ran for 5 yards, it took another 28 seconds of game clock to receive the next snap.

With 5:23 remaning, McNabb hit Buckhalter again for 14 yards to his 43 yard line. This time it took 24 seconds for McNabb to take the snap on 3rd and 1 and sneak for a first down.

In theory, if everyone is surrounding the line of scrimmage, it means that you can snap the ball very quickly, since noone has to run a great distance to get in position for the next play.

Despite this, it took another 27 seconds to snap the ball.

That play resulted in an 11 yard completion to Matt Schobel, followed by a lull of 28 seconds before the next snap.

Mercifully, a 12 yard completion to Buckhalter ended out of bounds with the clock stopped at 4:04 of the 4th quarter. Ball at the Giant 32 yard line.

Seven plays in 2:32. Can this be called a hurry up offense?

It is a perfect drive if you are down one score, its four down territory and you know you won't be getting the ball back. In that case a team can try to take as much time off the clock as possible to limit the amount of time remaining for their opponents final possession But the Eagles are down 2 scores. Taking time off the clock is simply not an option.

Basic Clock Management Math When Down Two Possessions

No coach wants to rely on an onside kick. It is a low percentage play. This is how to avoid the onside kick.

If you have two timeouts, you have to score with about 2:10 remaining, then kickoff, force a three and out and that’ll leave you with enough time for a two minute drill. The two minute warning acts as a third timeout.

If you have one timeout remaining, you have to score before the 2:50 mark because you can never be sure how many seconds can be run off the clock on the kickoff.

If the clock reads 2:45 when your opponent takes possession, they can run five seconds off the game clock before the whistle blows to start the next play. If the whistle blows before 2:40, you don’t call your final timeout because your opponent has to snap the ball before the two minute warning (the play clock is 40 seconds) Thus you can save your single timeout until after the two minute warning, and if you force a three and out, you’ll have enough time for a two minute drill.

What happens if the clock reads less than 2:45 when you score to make it a one possession game?
Option 1: kickoff and hope your opponent throws an incomplete pass that stops the clock. If they don’t, you can stop the clock twice, meaning that if your opponent simply runs the ball up the middle three times, they will have to punt the football with 1:15 remaining, and based on how the punt return works, you’ll have just over a minute to go down the field.

Option 2: the onside kick. As mentioned before, a very low percentage play.

The Eagles need to score quickly to avoid Option 2: the onside kick.

Back to the Eagles and the Giants.

The Eagles Final Drive versus the Giants: What Is With The Play Calling?

Okay, quick recap. Eagles down 16-3, clock moving, just under 4:00 remaining.

The Eagles ran the ball on the next play, gaining 16 yards to the Giant 16 yard line, in bounds. A very good gain, though the clock is moving. However, everyone is close to the line of scrimmage so the next snap should conceivably be taken within 16 seconds.

Yet Donovan McNabb is letting precious seconds tick away. The next snap barely beats the play clock.

Important question #1: How does a quarterback let 40 seconds slip away from the game clock?

You can give the Eagles and McNabb the benefit of the doubt as long as the next play is a good one. That would justify letting precious time go off the clock.

On the next play, Buckhalter runs off left tackle for a 4 yard loss. Whistle resets the play clock at 3:14 remaining.

Important question #2: Is that the best play the Eagles can come up with when there is just over 3 minutes to play?

Important question #3: Did the Eagles have to use 40 seconds off the game clock to snap the ball on a basic running play?

Okay, damage done, clock moving, just under 3:00 remaining. Now the clock is stopped at 2:47. Giant injured. Clock restarts, incomplete pass and the clock is mercifully stopped with 2:37 remaining.

The only options remaining for the Eagles now are to score before the two minute warning, and get the onside kick. The Eagles can still kickoff but with only one timeout, the Giants would have to throw an incomplete pass to stop the clock for them.

And that is why the timeout wasted with 12:56 remaining was so important. Teams have a limited amount of clock stoppages at their disposal. Using them wisely is a luxury. They cannot be waste due to poor communication.

Mercifully the game ends two plays later when the Giants sack Donovan McNabb and recover his fumble.

Results of final drive: 12 plays in 4:17. This does not qualify as a hurry up offense. Donovan McNabb taking his sweet time getting his teammates to the line of scrimmage brought about memories of the 4th quarter of the Eagles Patriots Super Bowl.

McNabb taking so much time off the clock to set up the offense falls under the purview of Head Coach Andy Reid and Offensive Coordinator Marty Mohrinweg. It is their responsibility to signal plays quickly from the sideline, and failing that, to ensure that their quarterback is aware of the clock implications.

If Eagles Offensive Coordinator Marty Mohrinweg wants another head coaching job in the NFL he will have to get Donovan McNabb performing much better. It is one thing to pound the Lions secondary for 56 points. It is quite another to game plan against a tough division opponent.

Meet The New Quarterback...Same As The Old Quarterback?

Okay so Lovie Smith benches Rex Grossman for inefficient play. Reasonable decision. Rex has thrown for 5.61 yards per pass attempt and 6 interceptions on 89 throws through 3 games in 2007. More importantly for Lovie, however, the Bears are 1-2 record. Something, or someone, had to take the fall for the poor start.

But is Brian Griese really the answer? . Griese, for all his talents, has proven, after ten years in the league, to be nothing more than a paper quarterback. Nice completion percentage, decent yards per pass attempt, better than average TD to INT ratio. Yet Mike Shanahan, Jon Gruden and Nick Saban couldn’t wait to get rid of him.

Griese’s numbers against the Lions: 34 of 52 for 5.5 yards an attempt, 2 touchdowns but more importantly, 3 interceptions, including a 4th quarter pick that went 64 yards the other way for a Lions go ahead TD.

Maybe We Should Rethink Damon Huard As A Starting Quarterback

Damon Huard keeps getting accused of being a caretaker quarterback, a career backup, a game manager who is there to make safe plays and nothing else.

Huard has started only 18 games in his career. His record is 12-6 (66.7%)

More importantly however, in those 12 victories, Huard has led his teams to 4th quarter come from behind victories five times and 4th quarter game winning drives twice.

Huard’s 4th Quarter Comebacks
Week 5 1999 vs New England
Week 12 2000 vs Indianapolis
Week 4 2006 vs Cardinals
Week 7 2006 vs Seattle
Week 3 2007 vs Minnesota

Huard’s 4th Quarter Game Winning drives
Week 6 2006 vs San Diego
Week 4 2007 vs San Diego

Not bad for a career backup who went six seasons between starts.

Note 1: a come from behind victory is when a team is trailing at any point in the fourth quarter but ends up winning the game, either in regulation or overtime

Note 2: a game winning drive is when neither team is leading in the 4th quarter or overtime until the winning points are scored.

Offensive Snaps Are Not A Key Statistic When It Comes ToWinning Games

The Bears ran 80 plays to the Lions 55, a plus 25 difference in favour of Chicago. However, the Bears lost the game.

The Ravens ran 73 plays to the Browns 48, a plus 25 in favour of Baltimore. However, Baltimore lost the game.

Despite the huge differential in offensive snaps, the outcome of the Ravens-Browns and Bears-Lions isn’t that uncommon.

These are the 6 largest differentials thus far in 2007.

Baltimore +25 vs Cleveland Week 4 (Baltimore LOST)
Jacksonville +25 vs Denver Week 3 (Jacksonville won)
Chicago +25 vs Detroit Week 4 (Chicago LOST)
New Orleans +24 vs Tampa Bay Week 2 (New Orleans LOST)
Denver +23 vs Buffalo Week 1 (Denver won)
St Louis +21 vs San Francisco Week 2 (St Louis LOST)

4 of the 6 teams with the highest snap differential ended up losing.

In 2006, 5 of the 6 teams with highest snap differential also lost.

Jacksonville +48 vs Tennessee Week 14 (Jacksonville LOST)
New Orleans +41 vs NY Giants Week 15 (New Orleans won)
Philadelphia +34 vs Tennessee Week 10 (Philadelphia LOST)
Houston +33 vs Tennessee Week 7 (Houston LOST)
Minnesota +32 vs Chicago Week 12 (Minnesota LOST)
Green Bay +31 vs Buffalo Week 8 (Green Bay LOST)

Thus far, in 2007, teams with more offensive snaps are 34-23 (59.6%).

In 2006, teams with more offensive snaps in a game were 154-96 (61.6%)

In 2005, teams with more offensive snaps in a game were 139-104 (57.2%)

As you can see, having your quarterback under center the majority of the time does not give you a
better chance of winning.

On To Lovie Smith and The Bears...Please Explain The Play Selection

The Bears defense gave up four touchdowns in the 4th quarter against the Lions. That cannot happen again if the Bears are to get back in contention. However, the loss to the Lions cannot be blamed entirely on the defensive unit.

As mentioned, the Bears ran 80 plays against the Lions. 58 of those plays were passes. 52 attempts and 6 dropbacks that ended in a sack. 22 rushing attempts. Not an uncommon ratio when a team is trailing and has to throw the ball to (a)move down the field quickly and (b)preserve the clock since a running play takes more time off said clock.

However, the Bears were not passing the ball trying to catch up to the Lions.

After 3 quarters, the Bears were leading 13-3. They ran 57 plays up to that point, 36 of them passes.

The results of their 57 plays:

21 rushes yielding 68 yards, an average of 3.24 yards a carry.

36 pass plays yielding 154 yards and 2 interceptions. An average of 4.4 yards per pass play.

Despite the fact that their pass plays yielded just one yard more on average than their running plays, not to mention the fact that they led to two turnovers, the Bears insisted on throwing the ball often for three quarters.

All this despite having a glorified backup quarterback in Brian Griese whose job description was expected to be that of a Trent Dilfer - Brad Johnson game manager who excecutes with safe dropbacks and lots of running plays.

As strange as Lovie Smith’s play calling may have seemed, at least the Bears were leading 13-3 heading into the final quarter. There was plenty of time for Lovie Smith to make the corrections, and bring home the victory.

By the time the Bears took possession with 14:48 remaining in the 4th quarter, the Lions had made the score 13-10.

Three point lead. A one possession game. Full quarter to play.

The expectation: The Bears would run the ball, mixed in with some safe short passes, move the chains and eat the clock. At worst, they can play a field position game and hope their defense could make some plays.

The play selection on the Bears first drive of the fourth quarter: pass, pass, run, pass intercepted for a Lion touchdown for a Lions lead.

4 plays, just one rushing attempt.

Note the rushing attempt by the Bears Cedric Benson. It was the last Bear rushing attempt in the game.

Final tally for the Bears in the 4th quarter:
22 pass plays (18 attempts plus 4 sacks) for 80 yards
1 run for 1 yard

Their pass plays in the fourth quarter yielded an average of just 3.6 yards. Brian Griese was 14 of 18 (excellent) for 108 yards (decent) one touchdown and one interception that was returned for a touchdown going 64 yards. The four sacks went for a loss of 28 yards.

If you want to get technical about it, the Bears passing game yielded 16 positive yards on 22 drop backs in the 4th quarter 108 passing yards minus 28 sack yards minus 64 yards for the interception return) That is less than one yard per pass play.

Here is hoping that Lovie Smith learns from this defeat. In a close game with Brian Griese as your quarterback, you limit his exposure in the pocket by using the running game to full advantage. Even if it means punting the football more often than you would like.

For a better understanding of how this theory works, study Chiefs coach Herman Edwards and his game plans for Damon Huard.

The Bears Finally Blew A Fourth Quarter Lead

Heading into the 2007 season began, here were the coaches with the best winning streaks when it came to preserving 4th quarter leads.

Bill Belichick 24 straight games (last blown lead: vs Miami Week 15 2004)
Lovie Smith 23 straight games (last blown lead: vs Cleveland Week 4 2005)
Brian Billick 17 straight games (last blown lead: vs Pittsburgh Week 7 2005)
Jack Del Rio 16 straight games (last blown lead: vs StLouis Week 7 2005)

Well, Baltimore blew a 4th quarter lead on opening night to the Bengals.

Now the Bears have blown a lead against Detroit.

So Bill Belichick is still the tops at 27 straight wins when leading in the 4th quarter (3-0 and playing the Bengals tonight) And Jack Del Rio is next with 18 (2-1 this season)

After 23 straight 4th quarter conversions, Lovie Smith deserves a pass for his horrendous pass-run ratio management against the Lions.

Don’t Go 0-4, Or Else...Wait ...No It’s Too Late

Obviously. Going 0-4 to start the season can’t possibly help a team’s playoff chances.

And it doesn’t. Believe the numbers, they don’t lie.

Since the NFL expanded to 30 teams in 1995, teams have started a season 0-4 a total of 45 times.

Not ONCE did a team make the playoffs. 45 consecutive failures.

How many came close?

Two.

The Buffalo Bills finished 9-7 in 2004. They held destiny in their own hands, but failed to defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers at home, against a 15-1 Pittsburgh team resting their entire starting unit.

Tennessee was 8-7 playing New England in week 17 last year. The Titans needed to win and have four games go their way in order to have a chance at the post season. They lost.

How did these 0-4 teams ultimately do?

2 finished at 1-15
6 finished at 2-14
7 finished at 3-13
10 finished at 4-12
7 finished at 5-11
5 finished at 6-10
5 finished at 7-9
2 finished at 8-8
1 finished at 9-7

But wait...the Saints made the playoff last year. If they start the season 0-4, don’t they belong in a special category.

They would but they haven’t yet because they had a bye this week.

I’ll go into details next week IF the Saints lose at home to Carolina.

What about teams starting 1-3? Can they turn their season around?

Mike Nolan: How Do You Expect To Get Three Possessions In The Last 3 Minutes?

Situation: down 23-3 to the Seahawks with 5:04 remaning, clock stopped, the 49ers face a 4th and ten from their 31 yard line. The 49ers have two timeouts left.

What should the 49ers do? They are down three possessions with only five minutes to go.

Option 1: If they punt and the Seahawks let the play clock run the full 40 seconds and run the ball three times , the 49ers will get the ball back with just under 2:45 left still down three possessions. They’d have two timeouts and the two minute warning to stop the clock. If they score quickly, they might be able to onside kick, failing that, use their timeouts, force a three and out, get another score and then recover an onside kick. Assuming that the first onside kick fails. This is the best case scenario.

Option 1 seems complicated. Let’s look at Option 2.

Option 2: Go for it. Get the first down, put points on the board quickly, if the onside kick fails, you’d still be able to stop the clock, score again and then recover an onside kick in the last minute.
The drawback: if you fail on 4th down at your own 31, the game is over.

Basic math: you can either start trying to score three times with 5 minutes left when you have the ball or maybe get the ball back with just under 3 minutes left and then score three times.

Both options require an onside kick recovery at some point, possibly multiple onside kick recoveries.

The only reasonable option is to go for it. If you punt the football, it isn’t reasonable to expect three possessions in the last three minutes.

What did 49ers coach Mike Nolan decide? Coach Nolan punted the football.

Teams can either lose and keep the score respectable or lose kicking and screaming. The 49ers chose the former.

Meet The New Boss. Same As The Old Boss?

In the offseason, the Arizona Cardinals fired head coach Dennis Green and replaced him with Steelers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt.

Has anything changed?

Well...... no. Things never change in the desert.

The Cardinals are 1-3 to start the season, as they always have been.

Since 1992, the Arizona Cardinals have started EVERY season 1-3, except in 1998 and 2000. Surprisingly, as bad as they have been for the longest time, they have never started 0-4 since 1992.

That’s 14 times in 16 years that the Cards have started slowly out of the gate. This might explain why they have only one playoff appearance in the last 24 years.

Let’s hope that Ken Whisenhunt can overcome the slow start and not join the less than illustrious club featuring Joe Bugel, Buddy Ryan, Vince Tobin, Dave McGinnis and the already mentioned Dennis Green.

The club of coaches who attempted to turn around the moribound franchise and ultimately failed and failed miserably.

Don’t Go 1-3, Or Else...Wait...It’s Not too Late ....Yet

The basic numbers aren’t pleasant to observe if you are one of the 1-3 teams: Jets, Chargers, Bills, the Bears, the Falcons or the Vikings. And don’t forget the Eagles. Their game just ended.

In 2006, seven teams started 1-3. None made the playoffs.

In 2005, nine teams started 1-3. The Chicago Bears were the exception, qualifying as NFC North Champions at 11-5.

In 2004, eight teams started 1-3, with Green Bay coming from behind to finish 10-6.

In 2003, eight teams started 1-3. None made the playoffs.

If you are counting, that is 32 teams starting 1-3 in the last 4 seasons, not counting 2007, with only 2 teams ending up in the playoffs.

Wait A Minute...The Cardinals defeated the Steelers.......Not Like The Old Boss...Yet

Forget about the previous note. The Cardinals are 2-2 after four games for the first time since 2000. Since 1992, the Cardinals have started 2-2 three times, in 1998, 2000 and 2007. The remaining 14 times they have started 1-3. Never 0-4. Never 3-1. Never 4-0.


Or Maybe You Can Still Make The Playoffs Starting 1-3

Here is an abberation for you:

In 2002, seven teams started off 1-3.

Four of those teams made the playoffs: Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Tennessee and New York Jets.

Okay, so maybe it’s not impossible.

There you have it. This was Jimmy G from the Team 990. Thank you for reading and I hope you come back again in a few days.