A Recap Of Week 6 In The NFL

Welcome back to the Jimmy G analysis of the NFL right here on the team990.com.

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Let’s get down to business shall we.

Now This Is Domination

The Patriots are 6-0 and they are simply dominating the competition.

Let us count the ways:

(1)Dallas trailed by seven at the start of the 4th quarter and that is as close as they got. In the first 5 victories this is how close the Patriots opponents have gotten at any time during the 4th quarter.

Jets 14
Chargers 24
Bills 24
Bengals 14
Browns 10
Dallas 7

The Patriots have not encountered any opponent who could stay within one possession of them in the 4th quarter until Dallas showed up. How long did it take for the Patriots to move the 7 point lead to 14? 2:39 into the 4th quarter.

The Patriots have won the following statistical categories in each of their games thus far:
Yards Per Pass Play
Yards Passing
Plays From Scrimmage
Passing Yards
Time Of Possession
Total Yards
Completions
Completion Percentage

The Patriots were outrushed by the Cowboys 97-75 or else they would be perfect in that category as well.
The Cowboys had a very slight advantage in average yards gained from scrimmage, or else the Patriots would be perfect in that category as well.

The Bufallo Bills Do Need A Hug

Despite a plus FIVE turnover differential the Bills lost to Dallas 25-24. In this decade, teams with a plus five turnover differential are 48-1. The only loss: the Bills against Dallas.


What Is Going On With Joe Gibbs?

I eviscerated Joe Gibbs three weeks ago for his lousy coaching against the Giants when the Skins blew a 14 point second half lead. Poor play calling, even worse clock management. If you want the details, please reread the relevant sections of my first blog entry.

But that was then. This is now. Surely Joe Gibbs learned from his mistakes. Three time Super Bowl winning coaches have that ability.

Okay here we go. This won’t be pretty.

Situation: Redskins trail 17-14, incomplete pass by Jason Campbell makes it 3rd and 6 with 6:57to play in the 4th quarter. Ball on the Packer 37. Clock stopped. The Skins have all 3 timeouts.

The Redskins call a timeout to set up this very important play. That is a good decision. If they get a first down they can move the ball closer for a TD. If they are short then they can either try a long field goal or gamble on 4th and short. So this timeout will set up the remainder of the drive.

Either way the Redskins have to make the decision as to whether they will go for it on 4th down before this very important 3rd down play. Every situation must be taken in advance because the Skins are trailing and down to 2 timeouts.

So what happens next? Pass to Cooley gets 4 yards, ball is in bounds and the clock is moving. It is 4th and a short 2 from the 33 yard line.

It is outdoors and it is grass. A 50 yard field goal is not the greatest option.

A punt that lands in the end zone will yield a net gain of 13 yards on the touchback. A punt is therefore not an option.

The only option? Go for it on 4th and 2.

Joe Gibbs is going for it. The absolutely correct decision.

However, before the 4th down play the Skins call their 2nd timeout.

What the hell was Joe Gibbs thinking? The first timeout is when the play selection should have been made for a possible 4th down, or at least the choices should have been narrowed.

Wasting his 2nd timeout was ridiculous considering the fact that the Skins were trailing. That timeout was going to be needed later in the 4th quarter.

Question: what good is it to spend record sums of money to get Al Saunders to be your offensive coordinator if everything is going to be disorganized?

On to the play. Pass to Betts for no gain. It was a great tackle but if you are going to gamble on 4th down any pass attempt has to hit the first down marker. The pass to Betts was 2 yards short.

Question again: You have a talented young quarterback and one of the best, if not the best, offensive coordinator in the NFL: Is that the best play you can design on 4th down with 6:45 left in the 4th quarter? A play where the fullback catches the ball AT the line of scrimmage. All this after taking a SECOND timeout and having a few minutes to think about it? Presumably during the first timeout these options were discussed and still this is the best Joe Gibbs and Al Saunders can deliver.

Anyway damage done. The Redskins got the ball back but had to punt again with 2:50 remaining.

Packers got the ball back with 2:44 left on their own 42 yard line. Redskins have one timeout and the 2 minute warning.

The clock management strategy for Joe Gibbs is simple: call timeout after the first Packer snap, assuming the Pack run the ball, then let the clock stop at 2:00 on 3rd down, then force a 4th down punt with about 1:15 left. This strategy will allow Jason Campbell to get the ball back with just over 1:00 left in the 4th quarter. All this assumes that the Pack will run the ball, since any incomplete pass will stop the clock.

In essence, the exact same strategy that 49ers coach Mike Nolan should have used last week against the Ravens. Except that Nolan decided to use his only timeout AFTER the 2:00 warning.

Why call the timeout before the 2:00 warning? To save precious seconds for your quarterback.
If you call timeout after the Pack 1st down snap there will be about 2:35 left in the game. Again, the Pack will run the ball so that the clock will hit 2:00. Then when the 3rd down snap occurs, the 40 second play clock will reset with 1:55 remaining. Stop the Pack on 3rd down and they will have to punt with 1:15 left, give a few seconds for the punt and the return and voila, you have just over a minute left for your final drive.

So what did Joe Gibbs do? Just like Mike Nolan last week, Gibbs called his timeout AFTER the 2:00 warning. What was that all about?

This meant that instead of the 3rd down snap occuring with 1:55 left, it would occur with about 1:48 remaining. A loss of seven seconds. Seven seconds can come in handy on a final drive.
Ask Tony Romo and the Cowboys what seven seconds can mean: a short sideline pass to Patrick Crayton to get a shorter kick to win the game against the Bills.

But Before We Finish With Joe Gibbs, A Few Words About Mike McCarthy

This won’t be pretty either although the final result was positive for Green Bay.

Two weeks in my blog I eviscerated Packer Head Coach Mike McCarthy for his clock management skills when he needlessly ran the ball against Minnesota with less than 2 minutes to play when a pair of kneeldowns would most certainly have won the game. The Pack won anyways so I suppose in the end it didn’t really matter.

Anyway on to the Pack-Redskins game.

Situation: Joe Gibbs didn’t call his timeout before the 2 minute warning so it is 2nd down and 12 yards to go with 2:00 at his own 40.

Next play is a 5 yard gain, Skins call their final timeout with 1:51 to play.

Clock Management Strategy 101 should follow: run the ball in bounds, clock keeps ticking until the play clock expires 40 seconds after the whistle blows the 3rd down play dead at 1:46. Math: 1:46 less 40 seconds is 1:06. Let the clock run to 1:06 and call a timeout. Then the ball will be in the air for about 10 seconds, giving the Skins a final possession with about 53 seconds remaining.

Joe Gibbs gave Mike McCarthy a gift by not calling his timeout until after the 2:00 warning. A gift of about 7 very precious seconds.

So what happens? Instead of letting the game clock go all the way down to 1:06 and calling timeout, the Pack punt the ball with 1:20 left in the game and FOURTEEN seconds remaining on the play clock. Punt lands in the end zone, Skins ball at their 20 with 1:13 left.

What should have happened? Joe Gibbs lousy clock management meant that he wouldl get the ball back for his final drive with 53 seconds left instead of 1:00, a loss of seven precious seconds.

What did happen? Mike McCarthy’s even worse clock management gave Joe Gibbs 1:13 on the clock, instead of 53 seconds, a gain of TWENTY precious seconds.

Yes the Packers are 5-1 but if this type of coaching continues they will end up losing some very important games: bank on it.

Back To Joe Gibbs And His Coaching Staff

The final drive was a disaster for Jason Campbell. Incomplete pass, sack, incomplete pass, injury to the right tackle.

The Skins are banged up on the offensive line. I realize that.

Joe Gibbs however has assembled the best coaching staff money can buy. Gibbs has Gregg Williams on defense. I already mentioned offensive coordinator Al Ssaunders. But let us not forget Offensive Line Coach Joe Bugel, long considered one of the very best, if not the best in the business.

Having the so called best assistants in the business means finding instant solutions to problems. Instant solutions are hard to find, that is true, but that is why Bugel and Saunders are supposedly the very best in the business. Because they can fix anything. They get paid well enough.

The Skins offense failed late in the 4th quarter against the Giants because Joe Gibbs and Al Saunders did a terrible job handling both Jason Campbell and the clock.

The Skins offense failed late in the 4th quarter against the Packers because the offensive line couldn’t protect Jason Campbell. That is Joe Bugel’s domain.

Joe Bugel failed against Green Bay, and he did so miserably. So the question again becomes: why hire the very best in the business if they can’t get the job done?

The Jets Had To Go For It On Fourth And One

Yes the Jets failed to get the first down but the decision made perfect sense.

Situation: Jets trail 16-9 to the Eagles, 4th and 1 from the 4, with 4:04 left, clock moving.

The Jets had 2 options.
Option 1: Kick a field goal and they are down 16-12, kick off, force a punt and go down the field one final time for the winning touchdown
Option 2: Go for it, get a first down and then a touchdown, tie the game.

The risk for option 2 is obvious: if the Jets don’t make it, they lose possession and they will still trail by seven points.

But the risk is offset by the fact that even if the Jets fail on 4th down, they can still get the ball back near midfield if they force the Eagles to punt from their end zone.

Jets Head Coach Eric Mangini made the right call: he went for it.

Unfortunately Chad Pennington threw incomplete and the Eagles ran out the clock by getting three first downs.

You Have To Feel Bad For The Dolphins

It is one thing to be 0-6 and know that your team stinks.

It is quite another to be 0-6 and be incredibly competitive.

Here is how close the Dolphins have been in the 4th quarter in each of their 6 losses

Washington: they were tied in the 4th quarter
Dallas: down 7, lost by 17
NYJets: down 3, lost by 3
Oakland: down 4, lost by 18
Houston: blew a 4th quarter lead
Cleveland: down 3, lost by 10

With just a few bounces, the Dolphins might be 2-4 or even 3-3. Oh well, maybe next year.


If This Be Motivation, Next Time Do Nothing

I predicted that the 1-3 Bengals would beat my Kansas City Chiefs. Why? Because with a week off I assumed that Bengals Coach Marvin Lewis would rip into his players and motivate them to greater success.

I was wrong. The Bengals converted just 1 of 11 3rd downs, turned the ball over three times and allowed Carson Palmer to be sacked 4 times. The Bengals lost 27-20 to fall to 1-4.

Is the season over for the Bengals?

Yes and No. In Lewis’ first two seasons, 2003 and 2004, the Bengals started 1-4 but finished 8-8, an excellent turnaround both years.

However, while 8-8 after a 1-4 start is excellent, it is still only 8-8, which is an extreme disappointment for a team that finished 11-5 in 2005, started 2006 3-0 and then lost their last 3 games with a playoff spot hanging in the balance.

A Supreme Running Attack Can Turn A Season...A Career Around

The Chargers were 1-3, in danger of falling to the back of the pack and Norv Turner’s head was on the chopping block.

Now the Chargers are 3-3 and tied for first. How did they do it?

Simple: in their 3 losses, Norv Turner called 114 passing plays compared to 72 running plays, in effect abandoning LT when the game was on the line.

In their wins over the Broncos last week and the Raiders today, the ratio has been reversed: 69 running plays compared to 39 passing plays.

Lesson learned: if you emphasize LT, the defense stacks up on the line of scrimmage, making the job of the young Philip Rivers easier. The less Rivers has to do, the better the Chargers chances of winning.

2 straight wins is good for Norv Turner: hopefully the critics will get off his back. If not for the rest of the season, at least for the next few weeks.

Statistical Notes From Sundays Games

(1)The Jags have outrushed their opponents by 31, 110, 146 and 183 the last 4 games. In week 14 last season, they outrushed the Indianapolis Colts by 341 yards.

Who do the Jags play next week on Monday night? The Colts. The Colts have rushed for 226
and 147 yards in their last 2 games.

Something has gotta give. And I will be listening to the game on the Team 990.

(2)Teams with a plus two turnover differential are 169-32 since the start of the 2004 season, including 18-2 in 2007. Who are the only teams to lose in 2007 with a plus two?

The Redskins lost to the Giants in Week 3 and the Texans to the Jags today.

(3)Teams with a higher Yards Per Pass Play are 67-20 thus far in 2007.
The Giants, Tampa Bay, Steelers, Chargers, Raiders, Lions, Browns, Colts, Browns and Patriots have won every game in which they had a higher yards per pass attempt than their opponent. They have also lost every game in which they didn’t. All except for the Colts and Patriots, who have yet to lose.

(4)If you have three more rushing attempts than your opponent you have a very good chance of winning.

Since the start of the season, teams which run the ball three or more times than their opponents are 66-9, an 88% success rate.

However, this didn’t mean much to Tennessee, Washington and the Jets.

The Bucs were plus 18 against the Bucs: lost
The Skins were plus 9 to the Pack: lost
The Jets were plus 4 to the Eagles: lost

Give Credit To Wade Phillips For A Wise Decision Monday Night

A decision completely ignored during the unbelievable Bills Cowboys game by the Monday Night Football crew was Wade Phillips calling timeout with 41 seconds left in the first half.

Situation: Cowboys down 17-7, Bills have just completed a pass to the Cowboy 36 yard line with 45 seconds to play, it is 4th down.

Wade Phillips called timeout, his 2nd of the half with 41 seconds remaining. A brilliant strategy that was somehow completely missed by Tony Kornheiser and Ron Jaworski and Mike Tirico at the time.

Why was it brilliant? Because now Bills Coach Dick Jauron would have to decide whether to (a)go for it on 4th and 2 or (b)kick a field goal or ©)punt.

If Phillips had not called timeout the Bills would have let the clock tick down to the very end and then attempt a long field goal attempt. This field goal try would come with no risk attached: it is either good or it isn’t.

However Phillips, by calling his timeout, forced Jauron into a strategic error that ultimately may have cost him the game. Jauron decided to try a very risky 53 yard field goal.

The risk was extreme: a missed field goal would give the Cowboys the ball at the spot of the kick, which was their 43 yard line, with 35 seconds to play and one timeout.

Result: missed field goal, Dallas moved down the now shortened field and kicked a 47 yard field goal.

In retrospect, Jauron should have punted the football. Had he done so the Cowboys in all likelihood would have kneeled down to end the half. That field goal allowed the Cowboys to decrease the Bills’ lead to 17-10.

I have stressed the same important point every week in my blog: coaches should use their timeouts at the end of the first half to give their quarterbacks one last chance to score points before heading into the dressing room. Wade Phillips did just that against the Bills.

But I Cannot Give Credit To Wade Phillips For His Decision On Sunday

Taking a risk against the Patriots is always, well, risky.

Situation: Cowboys trail 38-24, 10:05 left in the game, 4th and goal from the 5 yard line. The Pats have put points on the board on each of their last three possessions.

If the Cowboys gamble and fail, they will come away with nothing and still trail by 14.

But if the Cowboys kick a field goal, they will still need to score two touchdowns to beat the Patriots (assuming the Patriots don’t put any more points on the board) And to tie the game, the ‘Boys would need a TD plus a two point convert along with a field goal. This also assumes the Patriots not putting any more points on the board.

Wade Phillips kicked a field goal, cutting the Patriots lead to 11. A nice safe decision.

The Patriots took the ball 61 yards on their next possession and did what they did on their previous 3 possessions: take time off the clock and put points on the board to bring their lead back to 14. In effect the Cowboys ended up exactly where they were before kicking a field goal on 4th down with 10 minutes left: trailing by 14.

The only difference: there were now only 4 minutes remaining.

In a situation such as this, Wade Phillips should have gambled and if he failed, his defense would have had to come up big to force a Patriot punt from the end zone and if he got real lucky, perhaps obtain a safety.

That’s it for me folks. I’ll be back on Friday with my predictions for Week 7. I was 8 - 6 two weeks ago and 6 -7 this week. If you have any feedback don’t hesitate to email me at jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com

Don’t forget to tune in to the Ministry of Sports NFL recap after the Monday Night Game tomorrow night.

Until Friday.