Week 7 Edition: The NFL Week In Review

Welcome back to the Jimmy G blog. On Thursday I will publish a mid week post answering readers questions, including my thoughts on the NFL coming to Toronto, what are the most important stats in regards to winning football games and other assorted subjects.

My predictions for this week: 9-4 not including the Monday Night Game. Overall 24-16 (60%)

Any questions or comments, please send them to jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com

Anyway, away we go with an analysis of Week 7.

Some Quick Notes before I go in depth:
-The Vikings need to start Kelly Holcomb at QB. He does not possess the greatest skills but he is a caretaker QB, and the Vikings can win now with a caretaker QB. Tavaris Jackson is a glorified college option QB who holds onto the ball needlessly and cannot read the play that is developing in front of him. The Vikes can run the ball and they can stop the run. It would be a shame if they finished 6-10 again.

-The Giants continue to look good, winning their fifth straight after opening the season 0-2. It is true that their last 4 wins have been against teams who are a combined 6-20 (Philly, SF, Atlanta and the Jets) but in order to get to 9-7, you have to take all the winnable games on the schedule. The Giants are doing just that. Next up for the NYG: the 0-7 Dolphins overseas. I sense that the Giants will start 6-2 start for the 3rd straight season.

-Why are people criticizing Bill Belichick for running up the score? Is a 42 -21 lead safe with 10 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter? Of course it is. Belichick is a bad guy for putting Tom Brady back in the game.

Oh wait. Did the Texans just come back from a 25 point 4th quarter deficit to take the lead on the Titans? Yes, they did.

Yes indeed. A 21 point lead with 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter is very safe. Very safe.

-Is anyone going to mention Damon Huard anytime soon? Huard is 9-6 as the Chiefs QB (5-3 in ‘06, 4-3 in ‘07) He has four 4th quarter come-from-behind victories along with 2 game winning 4th quarter drives. Not bad for a career backup. Not to pick on Trent Green, but how are the Dolphins doing?

-It is very fortunate for Joe Gibbs and the Redskins that Neil Rackers didn’t connect on his 55 yard game winning field goal attempt. Gibbs has hired the best coaching staff money can buy, including the very highly regarded Special Teams Coordinator Danny Smith. How does he get repaid for spending so much of Daniel Snyder’s money? By seeing his special teams unit mess up on the Cards onside kick attempt. But the Skins won in the end and they are 4-2, so maybe I should stop criticizing Joe Gibbs.

-Make that three blown 4th quarter leads for the Raiders. You know, Lane Kiffin is going to have to learn how to hold on to a lead one of these days.

-The Jets finished 10-6 last year: their opponents adjusted record 114-126 (.475)
This year the Jets are 1-6: their first 7 opponents adjusted record thus far: 16-23 (.410)
Their last nine opponents adjusted record: 34-24 (.586)
Scary to think what will happen when the Jets have to play the tough teams.

-Normally a coach won’t lose his job if his team is ravaged by injuries. Scott Linehan might be the exception. The Rams are a total mess, pure and simple. Like the Dolphins, they won’t go 0-16, but they won’t reach 3 wins either. Cam Cameron is in his 1st year, so he will get a pass for the lousy start. Linehan? Probably not.


Did Tom Brady Need To Try A Fake Spike At The End Of The Half?

Seriously. Was this necessary?

Situation: Patriots demolishing the Dolphins 35-7. Clock ticking with just under 40 seconds remaining in the 2nd quarter. Tom Brady getting his team lined up for a spike to stop the clock.

Instead of spiking the ball, however, Brady faked, and tried a fade pattern down the right sideline to Randy Moss. Moss caught the ball out of bounds, incomplete.

A little history before I continue.

The fake spike became famous in 1994.

Dan Marino was driving his Dolphins for a game tying field against the Jets with 25 seconds left, clock moving. The ball was spotted at the 8 yard line. Marino got to the line of scrimmage, faked a throw to the ground and threw to Mark Ingram instead. Touchdown Dolphins. Dolphins win.

The Jets were caught napping on the play because they expected Marino to stop the clock since this was not a touchdown to tie or win situation. A field goal would have forced overtime.

The play worked for the Dolphins for two reasons.

The first reason is obvious. Dan Marino was the quarterback. Enough said.

The second reason is completely overlooked however. Two words: Bernie Kosar.

Kosar was the backup quarterback for the Dolphins, finishing up his career in South Florida holding a clipboard after a lifetime of being a starter in Cleveland.

During the preseason Marino and head coach Don Shula wanted to attempt a fake spike at the end of a half in order to see how it worked against an NFL defense. Since Marino was not going to play the 2nd half of an exhibition game, they waited until the 2 minute drill was in play to try it.

Kosar, on the sideline, calling in the plays through the headset, talked Shula and Marino out of it. The reason? A fake spike can only be tried once. After the first attempt, everyone will be expecting it, so noone will be caught by surprise.

What is the point of faking a spike and scoring a touchdown in a meaningless exhibition game?

Kosar reasoned that later in the season, a very important moment would present itself where it would be worthwhile to try a gadget play.

Kosar was correct. The game in question was a huge game for both the Jets and Dolphins. Miami was 7-4 and on a 2 game losing streak. The Jets were 6-5, a game back. A Jets win would have given the Dolphins a third straight loss and forced a three way tie for 1st place with Buffalo Bills in the mix as well.

With the Dolphins driving to either force overtime or score a winning touchdown, Kosar called for the play. This was the moment Kosar was referring when he convinced Shula and Marino not to try the fake spike during the exhibition season.

It worked. Why? Because the Jets did not expect Dan Marino to throw the ball after seeing him motion downward as he stepped in under center.

What does all this have to do with Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots?

It is simple. The Patriots tried a gadget play in a meaning game against a totally overmatched opponent.

Was it worth it to expose a trick play in that atmosphere? Wouldn’t the Patriots have been better served to wait for just the right moment, as the Dolphins did in ‘94? Against a team which had a chance of beating them?

I have no problems with the Patriots trying to score more points than necessary, what most observers call “running up the score” If an NFL defense cannot stop you, that qualifies as their problem, not yours.

But emptying your playbook in a meaningless game? Ridiculous. And make no mistake about it, this was a meaningless game.

Is Marvin Lewis About To Be Fired?

After seeing Cincy come from behind to beat the Jets, I thought I’d share some important notes regarding Marvin Lewis’ tenure with the Bengals.

(1)Marvin has never had a losing record: True he has three 8-8's (‘03, ‘04 and ‘06) wrapped around an 11-5 (‘05) but 8-8 is more than respectable.

(2)Marvin has coached 70 regular season games with the Bengals: career record 37-33

How did the Bengals do in the 70 games prior to Marvin Lewis’ arrival? 17-53
(Bruce Coslet 5-20 and Dick Lebeau 12-33)

That statistic alone speaks volumes about the turnaround Lewis has engineered. Lewis has taken a joke of a franchise and built it to a highly respectable level.

(3)The Bengals were 1-4 to start both the 2003 and 2004 seasons, yet Marvin Lewis was able to manufacture 7-4 finishes both years. So Lewis has more than proven that he can turn the team around DURING the season.

(4)Marvin’s contract expires after the 2010 season. The Bengals will not fire a coach and then pay him to sit at home. The Bengals have proven that when it comes to money, they are incredibly cheap.

You don’t believe me? Well here are two not so great examples from their recent history.

Example 1
David Shula was allowed to stay on as head coach until the 7th game of the 1996 season.

The 1996 season was Shula’s fifth with the Bengals.

Shula had a five year contract that expired after the 1996 season.

In his first 4 seasons in Cincinnati David Shula was 18-46.

If they had fired him after his 4th season they would have had to pay him for a full year to sit at home.

But instead of biting the bullet, admitting that the son of the legendary Don Shula was not prime time material, the Bengals brought him back for the final year of the contract.

The Bengals started 1-6 in ‘96 at which point they finally fired Shula. The Bengals were on the hook for only half of the 5th and final year of Shula’s contract.

They saved money on the deal. They also became a laughingstock of a franchise but at least an incompetent coach wasn’t being paid to sit at home.


No the Bengals allowed an incompetent coach to roam the sidelines instead.

They could have hired a new sheriff who would have come in and immediately cleaned up the Shula mess but then they would have to pay two head coaches instead of one.

Does the math start to make sense?

Do you need another example?

Example 2
Bruce Coslet took over for David Shula after the 7th game in 1996. He did an outstanding job mopping up in ‘96, going 7-2. That earned him a 4 year contract expiring after the 2000 season.

In ‘97 Coslet went 7-9, a respectable enough record for a Bengal coach.

In ‘98 Coslet went 3-13, a downward spiral that normally would result in a coach being fired. But Coslet had two years left on his deal.

The Bengals could have started a search for an experienced winning coach but they allowed Bruce Coslet to continue.

In ‘99 the Bengals went 4-12. At this point firing Bruce Coslet should have been gone. Done. Run out of town. Nice Guy? Sure. A Winner? No way.

But Coslet still had a year left on his contract.

So of course the Bengals, against all conventional wisdom and common sense, brought Coslet.

The Bengals started 0-3 in 2000 at which point they finally fired Bruce Coslet. The Bengals didn’t save as much money as they did with David Shula but at least Coslet wasn’t paid a full season to sit at home.

The Point Being.....

Twice the Bengals brought back a substandard head coach with one year left on his deal so that they could save money.

The franchise lost a year of development both times but money is money and this, after all, is the Bengals.

Marvin Lewis has 4 years left on his deal. I would normally suggest that he can’t possibly be fired but there is plenty of irony here. Why is there irony?

Coaches who get fired get paid for the remainder of their contract.

Once a coach is hired by another team, the team that fired him no longer has to continue making payments.

David Shula was an embarrassment, a disaster. There are no other words that can describe him. No other team would have hired him as a head coach so the Bengals knew they would be responsible for the entire length of his deal.

Bruce Coslet had been coach of the New York Jets from 1990 to 1993, the only distinguishable positive feature being his 8-8 wild card in 1991. Adding his unsuccessful Bengal tenure to the mix guaranteed that he would not get a third opportunity as a head coach anywhere else.

Marvin Lewis is different. He is a successful coach with an above .500 career record.

Where is the irony you ask?

The irony is that Lewis’ success works AGAINST him: Lewis can expect to receive head coaching opportunities during any offseason, whether it be next January or in 2009 and beyond.

Therefore any decision to fire Marvin Lewis will not involve saving money, as in the Coslet and Shula examples.

The Bengals have a very good idea of what Lewis’ market value is. If they decide to fire Lewis, they can rest assured that they will only have to pay him for a short amount of time to sit at home before someone else hires him.

Love Smith: Poor Preparation Is The Fault Of The Head Coach

It is the responsibility of the head coach to make absolutely certain that his team is prepared to play each week, both mentally and physically.

The execution of designed plays is the result of countless hours of practice starting in the spring and continuing through to season’s end.

So explain how the Chicago Bears wasted two timeouts in the second half because they were unable to line up properly.

Timeout 1: In the 3rd quarter, the Bears had to wasted a timeout because Devin Hester was not lined up properly which would have caused a penalty had the snap taken place.

It is the responsibility of Head Coach Lovie Smith, as well as Offensive Coordinator Ron Turner, to make sure that these mistakes do not happen. This is professional football: the reason for practice is to acclimate oneself to everything that is in the playbook, audibles included. If a player is incapable of learning the playbook, don’t have them out there.

Timeout 2: One play into the 4th quarter, Lovie Smith sends out the special teams unit for a potential tying field goal. Just one problem: only 10 men were out on the field.

Result: 2nd timeout wasted. Again, this is the fault of Lovie Smith, and let’s not forget about Special Teams Coordinator Dave Toub. Special teams is all about repetition: snap hold kick snap hold kick snap hold kick. One would expect that the easiest element in special teams is to get 11 men to line up properly.

Failure to do so falls squarely on the coaches. Their job is to send out the right players.

Congratulations To The Paper QuarterBack

Despite Lovie Smith having to waste his timeouts early in the 2nd half, the Bears still had a chance to win the game.

No Timeouts, Own 3 yard line, 1:55 on the clock. Down 16-12. Brian Griese breaking the huddle.

I have stated on this blog that Brian Griese is nothing more than a paper quarterback: above average stats across the board but lacking any discernible leadership skills.

Winning quarterbacks all share one characteristic. Instead of me telling you what it is, I’ll reprint the relevant passage from the book “One More July” written by All Pro Center Bill Curry with George Plimpton.

Here is what 4 time All Pro Center Bill Curry wrote:

“The common thread of the great ones, of course, was that you had complete confidence in them-that the guy knew which plays to call, and that if you executed them properly it would work. If you had to sit there and wonder: Now if we do this and we did it just right , it still might not be the right thing...then you’d have a real problem. With the great ones you didn’t have to worry.”

Brian Griese didn’t inspire that type of confidence in Denver, Miami or Tampa Bay. A Denver columnist once described a team meeting organized by Griese: noone sat within three chairs on either side of the quarterback.

Anyway back to the final drive. 97 yards in 11 plays. Touchdown Bears. Griese was 7 of 10 for 97 yards: simply outstanding. However to truly appreciate how great Griese was, we have to isolate two sequences on the drive.

Plays 3 and 4 of the final drive: Griese completed a 10 yard pass to Adrian Peterson, who stayed in bounds. Griese calmly got his team lined up in 16 seconds to set up another play which was an inbound pass to Hester for 7 yards, again calmly got his team lined up in 16 seconds and on the next play overthrew Muhsin Muhhama stopping the clock with 1:07 left.

This sequence impressed me because Griese was directing traffic quickly and efficiently. This was not the Brian Griese everyone had microanalyzed negatively for the last 9 years: the bumbler and fumbler who couldn’t perform when it mattered.

Plays 7-8-9-10-11: this was Griese at his absolute finest. On 3rd and 3 with 49 seconds left he found Bernard Berrian open over the middle at the Eagle 36. He got the Bears lined up calmly to spike the ball within 18 seconds. No hesitation whatsoever.

Them with 31 seconds left on 2nd and 10, nice slant to the dangerous Devin Hester to the Eagle 15. Hester was tackled in bounds and once again Griese calmly lined up the Bears for a spike with 15 seconds left.

This was not the Brian Griese I expected to see: a leader who carried himself with a confident aura. Watching the drive I fully expected Griese to get in the end zone in one form or another.

Of course on the next snap Griese did just that, finding Muhsin Muhhamad in the end zone for the winning touchdown. An unexpected happy ending for everyone involved, except, I would imagine

This was the second game winning drive orchestrated by Brian Griese in 4 starts as a Bear.

While I am not going to change my overall negative opinion of Brian Griese’s overall leadership skills based on a solid comeback against the Eagles, I will say that I am fully prepared to change my mind.

Play Calling... Brian Billick...Losing Football Games

Situation: Ravens trail the Bills 19-14. Ball at the Bills 49. 2:00 remaining, Clock stopped. 2nd and 1. 1 timeout left.

Willis McGahee has rushed for 119 yards on 24 carries thus far.

Let’s look at the situation logically.

(1)With one timeout left, the Ravens cannot expect to get the ball back should they lose possession. So it is obviously four down territory. A punt or a field goal is not an option.

(2)With the ball at midfield and 2:00 left and it being 4 down territory, the clock is not yet a factor. Yes you have to hurry to the line of scrimmage if you get caught in bounds, but you can still call a running play, perhaps two running plays if need be.

(3)Willis McGahee is averaging 6 yards a carry. It is 2nd and 1. In order to move the chains you need to get a first down.

So Brian Billick’s options are very clear. What happened next?

Before we delve into the ending of the Bills Ravens game, let us first rewind to the ending of the opening Monday Night contest between the Ravens and Bengals.

Situation: Ravens trail the Bengals by 7. 1:59 remaining. 1st and Goal for the Ravens at the Bengal 6 yard line. No timeouts left.

Brian Billick called for a handoff to Willis McGahee that gained 4 yards to the 2, making it 2nd and Goal.

But instead of calling for another handoff, or multiple handoffs to McGahee, Brian Billick selected 2 passing plays, the second of which was intercepted in the end zone.

Billick’s play calling against the Bengals was horrendous.

The clock was not relevant, there was plenty of time to run the ball again on 2nd down, and failing that, run the ball again on 3rd down, and failing that, run the ball one last time on 4th down. With Willis McGahee in the backfield, the chances of scoring would be exponentially high.

However, Billick mismanaged that final sequence against the Bengals. You would expect a Super Bowl winning coach to learn from his mistakes. After all, who was the offensive coordinator for the highest scoring team in NFL history? Brian Billick, 1998 Minnesota Vikings.

Because of this failure on opening night, I fully expected Willis McGahee to run the ball on 2nd and 1 against the Bills. Either that or a QB sneak. Once the chains move quarterback Kyle Boller would still be able to call a play quickly since everyone would be roaming near the line of scrimmage.

Instead Billick called for a passing play on 2nd and 1. Incomplete.

Passing play on 3rd and 1. Incomplete.

Another passing play on 4th and 1. Incomplete.

What is wrong with this picture? 1 yard is needed, the clock is not relevant (yet) and you are throwing the ball on every dow! If the Ravens were at their own 20 this decision making would be understandable. But the ball is at their opponents 49 yard line.

Run the ball!! Get a first down !!

That is the second losscan be attributed mainly to Brian Billick’s inefficient play calling.

Let us hope I never have to write another negative word about the Ravens and their head coach.

Here is an interesting question. What do these 2 Raven losses have in common, aside from Billick refusing to run the ball?

Answer: the decision making occurred immediately after he had the two minute warning to contemplate the situation.

So perhaps it stands to reason that if you give Brian Billick too much time to think about what to do next, he will coach himself into a corner.

Well that is it for me. Once again, thank you for reading and visit my blog again on Thursday where I answer readers emails. the email address again is: jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com