Week 8 Edition: NFL Week In Review

Welcome back to the Jimmy G blog on the Team 990.

Small note: A few readers sent me emails saying they found it ironic that I would post a blog answering questions, yet forget to mention the email address so that others might ask questions in the future. So before I forget, if any readers have a question or comment to make, please send them to jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com And thanks to those readers who scrolled down far enough to find my email address from a previous post.

On we go to Week 8 in the NFL.

Some Quick Notes Before We Get Started

It is time for the Bills to get it done: two straight wins to get to 3-4 after that disastrous Dallas loss. And who is next up for the Bills? The Bengals and the Dolphins. If the Bills can get to 5-4 they will be a major player in the playoff race.

This will be a must win for the Redskins: Being blown out by the Patriots is nothing to be ashamed of. Everybody has gone through it since early September. But this Sunday will be the true test for Joe Gibbs and the Skins. If they can beat the 1-7 Jets they will be 5-3 with big divisional games against the Eagles and Cowboys to follow. If they lose to the Jets then the Joe Gibbs era Version2 in all likelihood will end quite unhappily.

Why did the Bengals go into a huddle with 4:00 left trailing by 11 points? Wasn’t it strange that the Bengals used the hurry offense to move 50 yards in 5 plays yet for some reason decided to slow down the pace by going into a huddle? Next 2 plays: false start penalty and then a fumble recovered by the Steelers. If that is not a microcosm of the entire season for Marvin Lewis, then I don’t know what is.

Right Decision, Wrong Result: Eric Mangini made the right decision to punt the football down 3 points with 6 minutes left on 4th and 3 from the Bills 43 yard line. Mangini’s thinking: my defense is playing great, now if my punter can stick them inside the 5 yard line, we can make them punt from their end zone.

His punter Ben Graham actually stuck the Bills inside the 3, making the possibility of a safety come into play. However an 85 yard touchdown pass from JP Losman to Lee Evans made the decision to punt look bad in retrospect.

I am not second guessing however: I agreed with his call before the Losman to Evans TD and I agree with it now.

Just When I Thought He Was Out, He Pulls Himself Back In

After last week’s 97 yard drive versus the Eagles I thought that Brian Griese was perhaps going to finally shed his image as a paper quarterback Well, he wasn’t even that yesterday. 4 picks on 40 throws and only 208 yards, barely over 5 yards an attempt. Now Griese is 2-3 as a starter.

However, Griese is still the best option for the Bears. Rex Grossman had one touchdown pass and six interceptions to go along with his 5.62 yards per pass attempt( 500 yards on 89 throws) Griese TD to INT ratio is 9-10 and his yards per pass attempt is appreciably higher than Rex’s: 6.95 (1411 yards on 203 throws)

Long story short: the Bears are screwed either way. Stick with Griese and you will get flashes of his excellent potential but be let down in the end. Or go back to Rex and be reminded that he cannot succeed unless he has a good running game(which the Bears don’t have) and he doesn’t turn the ball over (which he is incapable of doing)

The Reason The Chargers have Won Three Straight

Mathematics made simple.

During the Chargers 1-3 start, they forgot about the running game: Norv Turner called for 106 running plays compared to 149 passes.

During the 3 game winning streak: 97 runs to 51 passes.

This 97 to 51 ratio does 2 things.
(1)it gets LT the ball more often
(2)it allows Philip Rivers to be more successful throwing the ball since defences will have to concentrate on LT.

Want proof? During the 3-0 stretch, Rivers is 34 of 50 for 546 yards. If you add in 1 sack for a loss of 2 yards, the Chargers are averaging just under 11 yards every time their quarterback drops back to pass. That is the equivalent of a first down and more every time.

The Reason The Saints Have Won Three Straight

Drew Brees had completed 78 of 109 for 901 yards against the Seahawks, Falcons and 49ers.

Drew Brees also hasn’t been sacked in the last three games.

Look at the basic math for the Saints in 2007

0-4 start: Brees 181 dopbacks (177 attempts plus 4 sacks) for 906 net yards
3-0 stretch: Brees 109 dropbacks (all passes, no sacks) for 901 net yards

Brees averaged 5.01 yards per pass play in the losses and 7.35 yards per pass play in the wins.

That is an astounding difference of 2.34 yards per play in the last 3 weeks as opposed to the first four.

Mathematics made simple.

The Biggest Problem Eric Mangini Has

There is one major statistical category that explains the Jets season thus far.

In 2006, the Jets had the lead or were tied in the 4th Quarter in 11 games. They won 10 of them.

In 2007, the Jets have had the lead or were tied in the 4th Quarter in 5 games. They have 1 win.

Head Coach Eric Mangini has to find to get his Jets to close out teams in the 4th quarter.

At first glance it seemed that the Jets problems had more to do with the fact their schedule has been tougher in 2007. But that is not the case.

The Jets opponents had an adjusted record of 114-126 in 2006, a winning percentage of .475

Note: opponents adjusted record is calculated on the 240 games played by 16 opponents that do not include said team. Example: Jets opponents went 120-136 in 2006, less the 6 victories over the Jets, and 10 losses to the Jets

This year, the Jets opponents have an adjusted record of 22-29, a winning percentage of only .431.

So the Jets in fact have regressed in 2007 even though their schedule has been much easier than in 2006.

For more on how things can change for 2nd year head coaches, read the next blurb.

Protecting Fourth Quarter Leads and Rod Marinelli

In the last 2 weeks, the Detroit Lions have beaten the Bucs and the Bears and now stand at 5-2. Those were huge victories because the Lions now they hold tiebreakers over both teams. Remember that this is the NFC where a truckload of teams will be 8-7 and battling for playoff positions in Week 17. Every win counts.

Lions Head Coach Rod Marinelli has done a much better job this year in one respect. He has his squad finishing games in the 4th quarter. His 3-13 Lions of 2006 blew 4th quarter leads to the Rams, Vikings, Patriots (yes The Patriots!) and Bears.

In 2007? Zero blown leads.

Protecting Jon Kitna from Mike Martz

Despite the excellent 5-2 start there is one very disturbing element to the Detroit Lions in 2007: their inability to protect the quarterback.

Since Mike Martz is the offensive coordinator, this isn’t strange. Disturbing yes, but not strange.

Why? Because Mike Martz likes to empty the backfield and go with as many receivers as possible in order to give his quarterback multiple options.

The good: Martz, as both coordinator and head coach, has had good QB’s in Kurt Warner, Trent Green, Marc Bulger and Jon Kitna to work with. Veteran signal callers who get rid of the ball quickly and effectively.

The bad: defences can tee off on these very same QB’s at will since there will only be 5 blockers at most on almost every snap. Blitzing has been popular for Martz opponents.

In 2007 Jon Kitna has been sacked league leading 33 times in just 279 dropbacks, after being pounded to the ground 63 times in 659 dropbacks in 2006. The sack ratio has been worse this year, even though the Lions won loss record reflects otherwise.

Here are the sack numbers for Mike Martz teams since 1998, his first year as a coordinator with the Washington Redskins.

Team Sacks Dropbacks
1998 Wash 61 626
1999 Rams 34 564
2000 Rams 44 631
2001 Rams 40 591
2002 Rams 46 681
2003 Rams 43 643
2004 Rams 50 631
2006 Rams 63 659

These are poor numbers by any definition. But before we get too critical of Mike Martz let us remember the following:

-Mike Martz has a career won loss record of 53-32 as a Head Coach
-Mike Martz has made the playoffs four times in his five full seasons as Head Coach
-Mike Martz has reached the Super Bowl as a Head Coach
-Mike Martz has won a Super Bowl as an Offensive Coordinator

So maybe there is a method to the madness of Mike Martz after all. One cannot argue with his success, although one can be worried every time his quarterback drops back in the pocket.


The Falcons Didn’t Play But Here Is Something Interesting

Since Week 5, teams that have won the turnover battle are 38-6.

The Falcons are 0-3 despite having won the turnover battle against the Giants, Titans and the Saints during that stretch.

Yards Per Pass Play Is Important: Here Are Two Exceptions

Since the start of the season, teams that have averaged 2 more yards per pass play than their opponents are 53-10.

I have harped on this stat since my blog appeared. And I will continue to do so.

However this week, I will note the exceptions to the rule.

The Giants averaged 2.13 yards per pass play (49 yards on 23 dropbacks) while Miami averaged 4.46 (138 yards on 31 dropbacks The Giants won 13-10.

The Titans averaged a paltry 1.625 yards per pass play (26 yards on 16 dropbacks) while Oakland averaged 3.86 (143 yards on 37 dropbacks) The Titans won 13-9.

I Am Starting To Believe In Tom Coughlin

6 straight wins for the Giants after starting the season with two losses.

What impresses me most about the Giants win over Miami? The New Tom Coughlin and his risk taking.

Situation: Giants lead 3-0, just under 6 minutes left in the first half. 4th and 1 at the Miami 49.

The Old Tom Coughlin would have sent the punt unit on the field without hesitation.

The New Tom Coughlin? Gambled, Giants got a first down and scored a touchdown six plays later to take a 10-0 lead.

If You Run The Ball More Than Your Opponents You Win

In 2007 teams who have rushed the ball five or more times than their opponents in a game are 73-8 , a winning percent of 90.1%

Yesterday was no exception as all nine teams who had a rushing attempt differential of plus five or more ended up victorious.

Completing More Passes Doesn’t Mean The Same Thing

If you complete five more passes than your opponent, you don’t have the same chances of winning.

Teams which complete five or more passes than their opponents are 32-46, a winning percentage of 41.0%

Yesterday was the norm, as only three of the eight teams who completed five or more passes than their opponents ended up winning.

That’s it for me everyone. I hope you enjoyed reading my blog.

I’ll be back on Friday with my Week 9 predictions.