Predictions For Week 14 In The NFL

What an exciting Monday Night Football Game. One of the best I have ever seen.

Before posting my thoughts on the Ravens _ Patriots game I will share with you my notes from very early in the 4th quarter, when I thought that the Ravens would pull of the upset.

(1)Brian Billick will not be fired for three reasons (a)he just beat the 11-0 Patriots!!! (b)he’s got three years left on his contract (c)yes, he’s only 5-7 but he was 13-3 in 2006 so give him one more year to find out which season is the better indicator for the future.

(2)Jason Garrett, you have company. A new young gun is ready to move into the head coaching ranks. His name is Rex Ryan, son of Buddy Ryan and defensive coordinator for the Ravens. On national TV with his team a 20 point underdog against one of the most explosive offenses ever, he made all the right moves. Owners and GM’s around the league are certainly paying attention.

((3)Kyle Boller has finally come into his own. He looks confident, he’s moving well in the pocker and best of all, he doesn’t have to worry about Steve McNair, who is done for the season.

The Ravens will miss the playoffs but they are 5-7 and they just beat one of the best teams of all time. What a Cinderella story......

On the reality.....

Here are my post game notes.

(1)Where was Kyle Boller throwing the ball? The Ravens are on the Patriot 30, 13:30 left in the game and leading by 7. It is 3rd and 14. A safe play that gains a few yards will give the Ravens the option of (a)trying a shorter field goal or (b)going for it on 4th and a more manageable distance. Instead a poor decision and a poor throw, interception Patriots, nice return, ball at their own 43.

With a 7 point lead, the key to the drive should have been to add points and make it a two possession game.

(2)Give the ball to Willis McGahee! I know he is tired and he’s got cramps to boot. But on the biggest play of the game you should let Willis run the ball.

3:54 to play, 3rd and a long 1, short 2 on the Raven 36 yard line. Patriots have 3 timeouts. If The Ravens can get a first down here, they will force the Patriots to use their timeouts on defense.

Instead of a simple handoff to McGahee however we get a pass in the flat to McGahee, great tackle by Rodney Harrison, timeout #1 Patriots, Ravens punt.

(3)Why aren’t the Ravens sending pressure Brady’s way? Why are they playing prevent defense now? The selective blitzing has created havoc in the Patriots protection schemes all game long, and now that the game hangs in the balance they decide to play it safe.

Brady gets the ball back with 3:30 left, on his 27 yard line, 2 timeouts, needing a touchdown. Ravens send only three on every snap. What’s up with that?

(4)Good decision to call timeout before the 4th and 1 attempt. It didn’t look like the Ravens were set properly. However, the Ravens stuffed Brady on the QB sneak at the exact same time that Rex Ryan was calling timeout. To clarify, great decision, but bad luck. To further clarify, Rex Ryan will be the one who gets hurt by this timeout. Perhaps owners and GM’s will remember this mistake in January when they interview him for a head coaching job. That is, unless the Ravens win the game.
But who’s kidding whom? The Ravens are not keeping the Patriots out of the end zone.

(5)Absolutely inexcusable behaviour by Bart Scott. Yes, he is upset. Yes, the holding call on 4th down was ticky tacky, the officials completely messed up in allowing the game to continue.

But you have to maintain composure even in the most distressing times.

Scott’s situation reminded me of something written by George Plimpton in his classic football book “Mad Ducks And Bears”. Plimpton was quoting Hall of Fame defensive lineman Alex Karras, who was discussing how a player must act when the officials make a mistake.

To paraphrase Karras: I get very upset at a bad call but I don’t get that upset. Why? Because if I do something stupid I will cost my team another 15 yards on top of what the ref just gave our opponents. Can’t do that to my team.

What did Bart Scott’s 30 yards worth of penalties cost the Ravens? A lot of field position.

Rewind: touchdown Patriots for a 27-24 lead with 44 seconds left. Ravens with one timeout left. The Patriots will kick off from their 30. With Ed Reed returning the kick, the Ravens can be guaranteed starting field position anywhere from their own 30 to midfield, assuming the officials don’t penalize the Ravens on the return.

Instead the Patriots kick off from the Ravens 35 yard line. Do you think for one moment that Stephen Gostkowski will do anything except kick it through the end zone? Of course not.

Ravens start from their own 20 with only one timeout. Every yard of Bart Scott’s stupidity cost the Ravens a decent chance at getting into decent field goal range for a Matt Stover game tying attempt.

How bad should the Ravens feel about blowing the game? Let us count the ways.

(1)In 2007, a team has outrushed their opponents by 75 yards or more a total of 57 times. The Ravens outrushed the Patriots by 76 yards (166 to 90). How did these teams do? Extremely well to the tune of a 52-5 (91.2%) record. Yet the Ravens lost.

(2)In 2007, teams that averaged more than 3.20 yards per pass play than their opponents are 44-3 (93.6%) The Ravens had a differential of 3.37 (9.13 to 5.76) Yet the Ravens still lost.

(3)In 2007, teams that have had 13 or more rushing attempts in a game are 70-6 (92.1%) The Ravens had 13 more attempts than the Patriots. Yet the Ravens still lost.

If the Ravens didn’t feel sick before, they must surely be sick now.

An Important Question Regarding the Ravens: should fans feel sympathy for them?

The answer: absolutely not.

Why? Rewind to the Ravens opening Monday night game against the Bengals. Ravens trail by 7, facing a 4th and goal at the Bengal 11 yard line with 2 minutes remaining.

Incomplete pass. Game over. But wait. Holding on the Bengals. Ticky tack call at best. New set of downs for Baltimore at the Bengal 6 yard line.

Unfortunately for the Ravens, Todd Heap dropped a sure touchdown and the deflection turned into an interception. Now it was truly game over for Baltimore.

I don’t remember Coach Billick complaining about the tick tack holding call that night. Great call, the receiver was being held, we deserved the new set of downs.

Baltimore fans please stop complaining. You had a similar situation drop into your lap against Cincy but failed to capitalize. The Patriots took advanatage. End of story.

On to my predictions for Week 14 In The NFL.

I was a very mediocre 9-7 last week, making me a mediocre 80-49 for the season. I am not impressed with me.

Some playoff notes to pass along:

Chargers: if they beat the Titans and the Broncos lose to the Chiefs, they are in the playoffs

Bucs: a win over Houston OR losses by both Carolina and New Orleans clinches the NFC South

Seahawks: a win over the Cards clinches the NFC West

Redskins beat the Bears: Loser gets eliminated. Winner gets a new life. Both teams have lost three games each when they were leading or tied in the 4th quarter.

Steelers over Patriots: If the Patriots win this game they will finish undefeated. The Pats won’t lose to the Jets or Miami and the Giants will have clinched a playoff spot by the time their Saturday game in Week 17 takes place. Giants coach Tom Coughlin will rest his starters since he won’t be getting a bye week. The Steelers have the power running game, they can get to the quarterback, they have a quarterback who can move the ball down the field quickly and they have one extra day of rest. The Patriots will not finish undefeated.

Saints over Falcons: The Saints may be 5-7 but they control their fate thanks to the NFL scheduling. Look at how it plays out: “easy” game against the 3-9 Falcons, followed by games against the 6-6 Cardinals and the 5-7 Eagles and Bears.

Vikings over the 49ers: At 3-6 I wrote that the Vikings were done. Now they are 6-6, tied for the last playoff spot in the NFC and...they play the 3-9 49ers. If the Vikes are to make the playoffs they have to win this game.

Eagles over Giants: The Eagles must win if they have a chance to make the playoffs.

Seahawks over Cardinals: A win by Seattle will win the NFC West. A loss by the Cards would still keep them alive in the wild card race. In a must win game I cannot trust the Cardinals.

Chargers over Titans: Big for both teams, but especially for the Titans. The Chargers can lose and still win a weak AFC West. However if the Chargers win and the Broncos lose to the Chiefs, the Chargers will win the the AFC West.

Tampa Bay over Houston: The Texans are 5-7 two games out of the last playoff spot, held by Tennessee and Cleveland. The Texans have lost 2 straight to...guess who...Tennessee and Cleveland. If Houston missesd the playoffs, and they will, those are the games they will remember: when they had a shot and failed.

Cleveland over the Jets: If the Titans lose, as I predict, then the Browns will be all alone at 8-5, holding onto a playoff spot.

Rams over Bengals: Rams are 3-1 since their 0-8 start, which has probably saved Scott Linehan’s job. Bengals will not reach .500 for the first time since Marvin Lewis took over.

Colts over the Ravens: after the 4th quarter disaster versus the Patriots, how do the Ravens recover on a short week?

Bills over Miami: The Bills need this game BADLY. Win they get to 7-6 with the Browns up next. Why must the Bills win this game above all else? Because the Browns play the Bengals and 49ers in the last two weeks. If the Bills lose to the winless Dolphins, next week’s contest against Cleveland won’t matter.

Jacksonville over Carolina: The Panthers run defense will not have an answer for Maurice Jones Drew or Fred Taylor. The Jags will move one step closer to a playoff spot.

Cowboys over Lions: Can you imagine a Lions team on a four game losing streak beating an 11-1 Cowboys juggernaut?

Broncos over Chiefs: Broncos can make playoffs only by winning the division. They have to win their next 2 games and hope that the Chargers split their next two. This would set up a winner take all matchup in Week 16 between the two teams.

Green Bay over Oakland: The streak is over. Oakland will not win a third straight game.

That’s it for me. Return to Touchdowns and Kicks on Tuesday afternoon for my thoughts on Sunday’s games.