Week 13 In The NFL

Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the team990.com

Let's get down to business right away.

Question One
Since the start of the 2004 season, which quarterback has led the most fourth quarter comebacks when his team was trailing by 9 or more points?

Answer: Eli Manning, 4 times

No other quarterback has more than 2 such comebacks

Next on the list:
Tom Brady 2
Vince Young 2
Ben Roethlisberger 2
Tom Brady 2
Drew Bledsoe 2
Rex Grossman 2

Question Two
Since the start of the 2004 season, which quarterback has led the most 4th quarter comebacks?

Here is the list

Ben Roethlisberger 9
Carson Palmer 8
Tom Brady 7
Jake Delhomme 7
Drew Bledsoe 7
Brett Favre 7
Eli Manning 7
Matt Hasselback 7
Trent Green 6
Byron Leftwich 6
Drew Brees 6
Peyton Manning 6

The Final Playoff Spot In The NFC : One Fine Mess

Let’s get down to business in a hurry.

Dallas 11-1: In the playoffs
Green Bay 10-2: In the playoffs
Tampa Bay 8-4: Almost impossible to miss the playoffs
Seattle 8-4: Almost impossible to miss the playoffs

NY Giants 8-4: Almost impossible to miss the playoffs

Let’s explain.
The NYGiants have a 2 game lead in the race for the 1st wild card spot. One win would put them at 9-7. The only way to miss the playoffs would be if 2 of the 3 teams at 6-6 go 3-1 the rest of the way.

The Seattle Seawhawks are in the exact same spot as the Giants. One win and they are in.

The Bucs have a 3 game lead plus the tiebreaker on the Saints and Panthers in the NFC South. The only way for Tampa Bay to miss the playoffs is if (a)they lose all 4 games and (b)either the Falcons or Saints win their remaining 4 games.

Now the fun begins

Three teams are tied for the final wild card spot at 6-6: Detroit, Arizona and Minnesota

Five teams are one game back at 5-7: Bears, Redskins, Eagles, Saints and Panthers

That’s right, eight teams, count them, are jammed within one game. And in all probability, one and only one of these eight teams will make the playoffs.

Who’s Hot and Who’s Not

NFC
The Cowboys have won 6 straight since losing to New England
Tampa Bay and Seattle were both 4-4 to start the season. Since then, both teams have won 4 straight to get to 8-4.
The Rams started the season 0-8. Since then, they have won 3 of 4
The Vikings were 3-6, after 3 straight wins they are 6-6
The Lions and Redskins have both lost 4 straight
The Falcons have lost 3 straight

AFC
The Patriots have won 12 straight
The next best winning streak belongs to the Colts. Their streak is at 3.
The Dolphins losing streak is at 12, and counting....
The Ravens were playoff contenders at 4-2, 6 losses later...
The Chiefs were playoff contenders at 4-3, 5 losses later...

When Things Aren’t Going Well.....

You have to feel bad for Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis. In his first four seasons, Lewis has never finished with a record below .500.

This season, following their loss to the Steelers on national TV, the Bengals are 4-8.

How bad was the loss to the Steelers? The Bengals were plus three in the turnover department.

How successful are teams with a plus three turnover differential: since the start of the 2003 season, they are 176-18 (90.7%)

So the Bengals had a 90% statistical chance of beating their bitter rivals, and still lost by 14 points.

When things aren’t going well....

Recommended Reading

Sid Hartman “Rookie draft picks again play major role for Vikings” Minneapolis Star Tribune
http://www.startribune.com/507/story/1587246.html

Bob Wojnowski “Free-falling Lions are not tough enough” Detroit News
http://detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071203/OPINION03/712030367/1126/SPORTS0101

Tim Kawakami “Nolan's sideline rant could define his era with 49ers” Bay Area Tribune
http://www.insidebayarea.com/sports/ci_7624011

Can Brett Favre Break Dan Marino’s Single Season Record For Passing Yards?

Heading into the Cowboys game, Packers QB Brett Favre had thrown for 3356 yards, an average of 306 per game.

The NFL record for most yards passing in a season: 5084 in 1984 by, who else, Dan Marino.

So heading into the Cowboys game, Favre had an outside shot at breaking Marino’s record.

However, Favre was hit hard, injured and taken out in the second quarter after throwing for only 56 yards.

Favre’s updated average yards passing per game: 284

If Favre is to break Marino’s record, he will have to throw for 1672 yards the rest of the way, an average of 417 per game.

When Will Brett Favre Break Dan Marino’s Record For Most Passing Yards, All Time?

If Favre stays healthy, he will break Dan Marino’s record for most yards passing in a career.

Marino’s record: 61,361
Favre currently at 60,912

Yards needed to break record: 450

I had predicted that Favre would break the record against the Raiders in Week 14.

However, as everyone knows, Favre was knocked out early against Dallas. This means that Favre will have to wait a week before passing Marino, since he only added 56 yards before his injury.

Updated Time of Record Breaking Ceremony: 4th quarter of the Packers – Rams game on December 16th.

When Should Brett Favre Return To The Lineup?

Favre’s situation is very reminiscent of what happened with Dan Marino during the 1999 season.

Recap: Dan Marino suffered a shoulder injury in week 5. The Dolphins were 4-1 at the time.

Marino’s replacement, Damon Huard, did a splendid job over the next 5 games, going an equivalent 4-1, bringing the Dolphins record to 8-2, just a hop skip jump away from a prime playoff spot.

What was Jimmy Johnson’s strategy regarding Dan Marino’s return to the lineup? A very simple one: when Marino was perfectly healthy, he’d be back under centre. With an 8-2 record, Johnson could afford to be patient.

Problem: Dan Marino had pride and thought he could heal quickly. He rushed himself back in the lineup for a Thanksgiving game against the Cowboys. Result: a 20-0 loss. Marino 14 of 35 for 176 yards and FIVE interceptions.

Marino stayed in the lineup until the end of the season despite diminishing results. The Dolphins finished 9-7, backed into the playoffs and lost 61-7 to the Jaguars in Marino’s final start.

Where is this leading? Favre also has pride and I am sure he thinks he can heal quickly.

However, what might be best for the Packers is for Favre to take a week or two or three off, and be absolutely rested for the playoffs. The Dolphins and Jimmy Johnson learned this lesson the hard way in 1999 what happens when the opposite occurs.

The only complication: the Streak. Does Favre want to end his string of 249 consecutive starts?

For the good of his team, perhaps he should.


Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Gambler Of The Week

Nothing more can be said about Jon Gruden except the following: he’s got guts.

Situation: Bucs trail the Saints 23-20 at the 2:00 warning. They have the ball at the Saints 28 yard line. 1 timeout remaining.

Option 1: Kick the field goal. If it’s good, tie game and the Saints would have plenty of time to go down the field for the winning points.

If the kick failed, the Saints would be able to run the clock to around 0:30 before punting, leaving Tampa Bay with little or no chance to get close enough for a tying field goal attempt.

Option 2: Go for it. Advantage 1: a first down would allow Tampa Bay to milk the clock to zero, whereby they could try a field goal attempt, most likely from closer range. If the kick is good and the Bucs win the toss to start overtime, the Saints defense would be exhausted from having been on the field for an eternity.

Advantage 2: a first down would give the Bucs a new set of downs which would allow them, hopefully, multiple opportunities to get into the end zone for the go-ahead points.

Disadvantage: if the gamble fails, the Bucs would be in the same position as a missed field goal. With only one timeout to stop the clock, the Saints would be able to bring the clock to around 0:30 before punting.

Added to all these options were the standings. Bucs 7-4, Saints 5-6. Bucs beat the Saints earlier in the season, so another Bucs win would give ostensibly give the Bucs a four game lead (3 games in the standings and one for the tiebreaker)

A Bucs loss, on the other hand, would put the Saints only one game back

What happened? Jon Gruden pulled a Jack Del Rio. He gambled big. And won.

Earnest Graham 2 yard gain and a first down. Four plays later, Luke McCown found Jeremy Stevens in the end zone with 14 seconds left from 4 yards out on 3rd and goal.

End result makes Jon Gruden look like a genius. Bucs have an absolute stranglehold on the NFC South. Saints in a four way tie at 5-7, one game back of the Lions, Vikings and Cardinals for the last playoff spot.

Sean Payton Made It All Possible

The Bucs may have won the game after gambling on 4th and 1, but Saints coach Sean Payton made it all possible with his bizarre play-calling.

Situation: Saints ball, 2nd and 10 on their own 49, 3:41 remaining in the 4th quarter. Clock stopped, Tampa Bay down to their last timeout.

Conventional wisdom calls for a combination of either
(a) 2 running plays, which would milk the clock down to about 2:30 after the punt, keeping in mind that a kick from midfield has a good chance of ending in the end zone, meaning the Bucs would start from their own 20 at best, inside their own 10 at worst.
(b)safe passes, perhaps a screen to move closer to a game ending first down.

A double reverse that begins to develop 8 yards behind the line of scrimmage doesn’t qualify as conventional.

Of course, if the play worked Saints coach Sean Payton would be the one hailed as a genius today, not Jon Gruden.

However, the play failed miserably, Reggie Bush tried a toss after taking the handoff on the original reverse play, Bucs recover at the Saint 27, giving them the great field position that they used towards their winning touchdown.

Speaking Of The Rambling Gambling Man, An Update On Jack Del Rio

Touchdowns and Kicks has been detailing the 4th down gambles made by the Jaguars in the last three weeks. Why should this week be any different?

Jags against the Colts in a huge game: if the Jags win, they are tied with the Colts for the AFC South lead and the number 2 seed in the AFC.

Gamble 1: 8:30 left in the 3rd quarter, Jags trail the Colts 21-7. 4th and 1 from the Colt 3 yard line.
A field goal makes it 21-10, a two possession game. But the Jags are at the 3 yard line. If the Jags go for it and fail, the Colts would begin their drive with their backs on their goal line.

How many times is a team going to advance to their opponents goal line? Not often, so therefore they have to take their chances when they do so.

Jack Del Rio gambled. Garrard quarterback sneak, first down, followed by a play action pass in the end zone to Marcedes Lewis. Touchdown, Jags trail 21-14.

The Jags were still trailing 21-14 early in the 4th quarter, ball on the Colt 8 yard line, 3rd and 1. Jags a few plays away from tying the game.

Next play Maurice Jones Drew fights for a yard barely gets a first down, giving the Jags a whole new set of downs to get the all important tying touchdown except for......

Reggie Williams, Loser Of The Week, Part One

Yes, Reggie Williams, wide receiver for the Jaguars. The loser of the week.

Why? Well, we were discussing the Jags and how they picked up the first down to bring them closer to tying the Colts.

Except that Reggie Williams had other ideas. Williams, in his infinite wisdom, decided to take a cheap shot on Bob Sanders after the whistle. 15 yards, ball now on the 22 yard line instead of the 7.

The Jags ended up settling for a field goal, making the score 21-17.

A stupid penalty at a critical time. The penalty may end up costing the Jags both the division and the number 2 seed.

Joe Gibbs Version 2, Loser Of The Week, Part Two

I have been picking on Joe Gibbs version 2 all season long. Blown 4th quarter leads, his and the coaching staff’s inability to properly develop Jason Campbell, clock management errors, you name it, I’ve blasted Joe Gibbs.

And now Sean Taylor gets murdered.

Have I possibly been too harsh in my criticism? Perhaps. But after Sunday’s game against the Bills, I don’t think so.

Situation: Skins lead 16-14, Bills lining up for a 51 yard game winning field goal attempt. 8 seconds remain in the 4th quarter. Skins have three timeouts remaining. The Bills have none. The field is wet and slippery.

Gibbs calls his first timeout to ice the kicker. Good thing the timeout was called because Rian Lindell was perfect on the attempt.

Anyone who has followed football for a decent amount of time knows that the same team cannot call consecutive timeouts. Doing so will result in a 15 yards delay of game/unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. I know this and I am sure almost everyone else does too.

Can the same team call two timeouts before a snap? Yes, if their opponent calls a timeout in between.

Example: Redskins call timeout to ice the kicker. Then the Bills call timeout to clear the spot where Lindell will kick from. In that situation the Skins could call another timeout. Why? Because their opponent called one in between.

This is incredibly simple to understand. You would figure that a three time Super Bowl winning coach would be similarly informed.

When the Bills lined up after the Skins timeout, I heard the whistle blow again and thought, “the Bills called timeout because they want to fix the area where Lindell is kicking from”.

Then I realized “wait a minute the Bills don’t have a timeout, that means the Skins called timeout, and will be penalized 15 yards, making it a much easier 36 yard attempt.” If you saw Bills coach Dick Jauron go crazy on the sidelines, you’d know he was feeling the same way too.

It was inexcusable for the Redskins to call a second timeout. Amateur hour are two words that come to mind.

Cleveland Loses, Poetic Justice

On Sunday, the Browns trailed the Cardinals 27-21 with 4 seconds remaining, ball on the Cards 37. Time for a Hail Mary.

It worked. Derek Anderson to a double covered Kellen Winslow down the right sideline, great catch but before Winslow could keep his feet in bounds he was pushed out.

If the referees ruled that Winslow would have kept his feet in bounds had he not been pushed, it would have been a touchdown. It also would not have been reviewable.

Being pushed out of bounds is a judgement call on the part of the officials. It is not reviewable. Therefore the Browns got screwed out of a win.

Why is this poetic justice? Because the Browns won a game in exactly the same fashion last season.

Situation: Browns lead the Jets 20-13, 1:06 left in the 4th quarter. Jets have the ball on the Browns 24 yard line. 4th down.

Pennington completes a pass to Chris Baker in the end zone, but before Baker could keep his feet in bounds, he is pushed out. Officials call it incomplete. Browns win.

Once again, being pushed out of bounds is not reviewable It is a judgement call.

I guess that the old saying is correct. “What comes around goes around.”

That’s it for me this week. I’ll be back with my predictions post on Thursday night, before the Bears-Redskins game.