Week 15 In The NFL

Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G.

I’ll be changing things up for this edition. It’ll be questions and answers. Lots of questions, lots of answers.

Without further ado, let the show begin.

Q: Last week I asked readers a question: which quarterback has had the most 4th quarter game winning drives since week 7 of the 2006 season?

A: I’ll print readers’ emails in my predictions post this Friday. I was surprised at the answers.

Q: Which two teams will be the wild cards in the NFC?

A: Washington and Minnesota

Q: Will Joe Gibbs’ legacy be damaged ? After all, he is only 28-34 since returning for the 2004 season.

A: If the Skins can finish 9-7 and make the playoffs, Gibbs’ legacy will be safer than it should be. Why? Because two playoff berths in four seasons is a reasonable return on an investment.

Also keep in mind that both playoff spots (assuming the Skins make the playoffs this year) would have required big time turnarounds late in the season. 2005: Skins were 5-6, won their last 5 to squeak in. 2007: Skins were 5-7, won their last 4 to squeak in. That takes coaching.

Q: If the Redskins and Giants both finish 9-7 who gets the tiebreaker?

A: The Redskins based on common games (8-6 vs 7-7)

Q: If the Redskins, Giants, Saints and Vikings all finish 9-7, which two teams make the playoffs?

A: The Saints and the Redskins

Q: Trailing by 3, the Ravens had the ball on the 1 yard line, 4th and goal with seconds left against the Dolphins? Brian Billick decided to kick the field goal and go into overtime. Should Billick have rolled the dice?

A: If Kyle Boller was under center, yes. But Troy Smith is a rookie QB. I don’t think I’d want to trust a rookie in that situation.

Q: Are the Jaguars legitimate Super Bowl contenders?

A: You betcha. The Jaguars are built to win in January conditions.

They can run the ball
They don’t turn the ball over
They can get to the quarterback
They can stop the run

Q: Any updates on Jags Coach Jack Del Rio, the Rambling Gambling Man?

A: Week after week, the answer is getting to be an automatic yes.

Readers of my blog are aware of my weekly feature describing the Jaguars propensity for taking chances on 4th down. The result over the last 5 weeks has always been the same: Jags gamble, they succeed and a few plays later they score a touchdown. Sunday’s game against the Steelers was no exception.

Situation: Jags trail 7-3, less than three minutes remaining in the first half. Ball on the Steeler 24 yard line. 4th and 1.

Field goal is the usual decision here but it is snowy and it is Heinz Field so a gamble is obvious. Result: Jones Drew gets 2 yards and a first down. 3 plays later, Garrard to Wilford for a 12 yard touchdown. Jags lead at the half 10-7.

Next Situation: Jags next possession is at the start of the second half, still leading 10-7.

4th and 1 on the Steeler 46 yard line. 11:48 left in the 3rd quarter. Logic dictates that the Jags should punt the football and play a game of field position. No way. Jones Drew up the middle for 6 yards.

Later on, same drive. 4th and 1 at the Steeler 31, 9:58 remaining 3rd quarter. Too far for a field goal and a punt might end up in the end zone, yielding a net of 11 yards. So a gamble is the right call. Result: Garrard quarterback sneak for a first down. Nine pays later, Garrard to Reggie Williams for a touchdown and 16-7 lead. (Missed Extra Point)

Q: What statistic bothers you about the Oakland Raiders?

A: Blown 4th quarter leads. Rookie Head Coach Lane Kiffin has been at the helm of FIVE, count them, FIVE, blown 4th quarter leads this season.

Q: Is FIVE blown 4th quarter leads a record for a Rookie Head Coach since the NFL went to a 16 game schedule in 1978?

A: No. The record is SIX, set in 1994 by Norv Turner of the Washington Redskins

Kiffin is tied with three other rookie head coaches for 2nd place, with FIVE.

The list:
Lane Kiffin, Oakland 2007
John Fox, Carolina 2002
Ray Handley, NYGiants 1991
June Jones, Atlanta, 1994

Q: What is the overall record for blown 4th quarter leads, regardless of whether the coach was in his first year? (*Since 1978)

A: Mike Riley, San Diego Chargers in 2000. The Chargers finished 1-15 and blew a 4th quarter lead SEVEN times.

Next on the list, with SIX blown 4th quarter leads in a single season:

Norv Turner, Washington 1994 (already mentioned)
Joe Bugel, Oakland 1997
George Siefert, Carolina 2001
Dan Henning, San Diego 1989
Jerry Burns, Minnesota 1990

Q: Anything else you want to add about 4th quarter leads?

A: Sure. Under Brian Billick, the Ravens had blown only EIGHT 4th quarter leads since 1999.

In 2007, the Ravens have blown FOUR.

Q: Who has had the toughest schedule after 15 weeks?

A: Philadelphia. Their 14 opponents have an adjusted record of 106-76 (.582)

Q: Who has had the easiest schedule after 15 weeks?

A: San Francisco. Their 14 opponents have an adjusted record of 77-107 (.423)

Q: Can this be explained more easily?

A: Of course.

The Eagles have faced opponents that, on average, would finish with 9.31 wins over the course of a 16 game season.
The Niners, on the other hand, have faced opponents that, on average, would finish with 6.77 wins over the course of a 16 game season.

The 6-8 Eagles, despite this huge disadvantage, have a much better record than the 49ers.

Q: What does this mean for Mike Nolan’s job security?

A: Nolan, unless he wins his last 2 games to finish 6-10, will be fired.

Nolan was 4-12 in 2005, and 7-9 last year.

Nolan’s career record : 15-31-0. That about sums it up.

I go into more detail regarding Nolan later in this posting, so continue reading.

Q: What about Rod Marinelli? Will he return as the Detroit Lions head coach?

A: When the Lions were 6-2, Marinelli’s job was considered safe. Now the Lions are 6-8 and I am no longer sure.

Let’s look at the positives and negatives regarding Rod Marinelli’s situation.

Negatives: 6 straight losses after a 6-2 start. 3-13 in his rookie season.
Positives: The Lions have gone from 3-13 in Marinelli’s rookie season to 6-8 this year.
6 wins is better than 3.

There is one factor that is in Marinelli’s favor: Matt Millen.

Matt Millen took over as Lions General Manager shortly after the 2000 season, which saw Detroit barely miss the playoffs at 9-7.

The first thing Millen did was hire an unknown as Head Coach: Marty Mohrinweg. Mohrinweg went 2-14 in 2001 and 3-13 in 2002. Not surprisingly, Mohrinweg was fired after the 2002 season.

Next up was Millen’s good friend Steve Mariucci. Mooch did much better, relatively speaking. 5-11 in 2003, 6-10 in 2004 and finally, after a 4-7 start in 2005, he resigned.

And of course, now we have Marinelli.

Matt Millen, despite the Lions 30-80 record since 2001, still has a job.

He has hired three coaches, and two failed. The third coach has done a mediocre job.

How can Matt Millen fire Rod Marinelli, then walk up to Lions ownership and ask that he be allowed to hire a 4th coach in 7 years?

My gut feeling: If Marinelli gets fired it’ll be as part of a package with Matt Millen. Ergo, Millen and Marinelli both go, or they both stay.

Q: The Falcons lost to Tampa Bay 37-3. How bad were the Falcons?

A: Incredibly Bad.

Falcons time of possession was 17:01. 2nd worst this season. The only team worse: The Cardinals, 16:53 in a 17-10 loss in week 8 against, strangely enough, Tampa Bay.

Falcons had 36 plays from scrimmage. No team has had that few snaps this season.

Falcons had 5 first downs. Only the Ravens, in a 38-7 loss to Pittsburgh in week 8, had fewer. The Ravens had only 4 first downs.

Q: Who’ll be the quarterback for the Bears in 2008?

A: Certainly not Brian Griese. If Griese was returning in ‘08, Lovie Smith would have put him in the lineup against the Vikings last night. Kyle Orton was awful. Let’s be honest, Orton cost the Bears the ballgame. Yet, despite Orton’s poor performance, Griese never got a second look from Lovie.

How upset should the Bears be this morning? Incredibly upset.

The Bears had a PLUS THREE turnover ratio. Here are the won loss records of teams with a plus three turnover ration in recent years.

2007: 21-5
2006: 32-1
2005: 18-3
2004: 38-4
2003: 34-3

Add it up. 143-16 equals 89.94%. The average team had a 90% chance of winning the game based on turnovers alone. The Bears lost. At 5-9, the Bears are an average team.


Eagles 10 Cowboys 6 : Blondes, Tony Romo, Christmas and the Eagles

What is it about Tony Romo and his blonde girlfriends?

Week 16 2006. Christmas Day. Dallas hosting the Eagles. Big game.

Who is Tony Romo's special guest for the game? Carrie Underwood.

Result: Eagles win 23-7. Romo's stats: 14 of 29 for 142 yards and 2 interceptions.

Fast forward to yesterday. 9 days till Christmas. Dallas hosting the Eagles. Big game. (aren't they all?)

Who is Tony Romo's special guest for the game? Jessica Simpson.

Result: Eagles win 10-6. Romo's stats: 13 of 36 for 214 yards and 3 interceptions.

Hmmm. anyone else notice a trend?

Peyton Manning: A Special Player, Part 1

I’ll remember many things about Peyton Manning’s performance against the Raiders yesterday.

(1)Peyton’s overall stats: 22 of 39 for 276 and a TD
(2)Peyton concluding his game winning drive by throwing a 20 yard touchdown pass to Anthony Gonzalez with 4:49 remaining.

Peyton’s numbers on the winning drive: 7 of 7 for 68 yards. Excellent.

However, what I’ll remember most about Peyton yesterday is the final play of the game.

On this play Peyton proved that when it comes to brains, he has no equal.

Situation: Peyton kneels down on 3rd and 10, clock reset with 46 seconds remaining. Raiders have no timeouts remaining. Therefore the Colts have to run a play before the game clock hits 0:07.

What were Peyton’s options?

Option 1: run the clock to 0:07, call timeout, send in the punting unit. Problem: if the punt gets blocked, it might get returned for a touchdown.
Option 2: run the clock to 0:07, call timeout, run another play that will last seven seconds so the game will end before the Raiders can touch the ball. Problem: if the clock does not expire, the Raiders would get one final chance between the Colt 35 to 40 yard line.

So what did Peyton do? He created Option 3.

Peyton let the clock hit 0:08, took the snap, dropped back in the pocket, and threw the ball HIGH in the air down the right sideline.

What was so great about what Peyton Manning did? Let us count the ways.

(1)He eliminated the need to punt the football
(2)He eliminated the need to stop the clock

How? Because the clock kept running when Peyton received the snap and also while the ball was in the air.

Result: the clock expired which prevented the Raiders from having a Hail Mary opportunity.

Brian Westbrook: A Special Player, Part 2

Brian Westbrook is a special and unselfish player.

Need some evidence? Look no further than Westbrook’s decision before the 2 minute warning.

Situation: Eagles lead 10-6 with 2:19 remaining. 1st down at the Cowboy 25 yard line.
Cowboys have NO timeouts remaining.

It was pretty obvious what the Cowboys were going to do. Dallas was going to allow the Eagles to score an easy touchdown. The Cowboys had no other choice.

The reason? Mathematics.

If the Eagles run the ball down the middle on their next three plays, they’d be able to run the clock until there are approximately 25 seconds remaining.

Why 25 seconds remaining? Because the Cowboys are out of timeouts, they cannot stop the clock. The only option the Cowboys have is to fall behind 17-6 by allowing a touchdown, then hoping for a touchdown drive of their own, followed by an onside kick recovery. Yes, it sounds far fetched but stranger things have happened.

But Brian Westbrook ruined Dallas’ best laid plans. He took the handoff and raced untouched to the end zone. HOWEVER, instead of scoring a touchdown, Westbrook stopped at the 1 yard line.

By being unselfish, Westbrook guaranteed an Eagles victory.

How? Because the clock would run to the two minute warning, at which point all the Eagles would have to do is kneel down three times to end the game. No Dallas drive, no onside kick, no need for the Eagles defense to get on the field.

Westbrook did something not seen very often: he refused to add to his personal statistics to help his team.

San Francisco 20 Cincinnati 13 : What was Mike Nolan thinking?

Here's the situation: 49ers lead 20-13 with 6:28 remaining in the 4th quarter. Clock stopped. 49ers ball on the Bengal 24 yard line. It is 4th and 2.

What should 49ers coach Mike Nolan do?

Option 1: Kick a field goal to make it 23-13, a two possession game. This would force the Bengals into four down territory on their next drive, meaning that the next defensive stop ends the game.

Option 2: Go for it. Benefit: a first down allows the 49ers to (a)get closer to the end zone and (b)take more time off the clock. Drawback: if you fail, the Bengals get the ball back with plenty of time to down the field for they tying TD. Another drawback is that the Bengals potentially would not be in four down territory on their next drive.

There are times to gamble and times not to. This is not that time.

Kick the field goal and make the Bengals go down the field twice in a short amount of time.

Coach Nolan decided to gamble. Incomplete pass. Bengals take possession.

The wrong choice. Thnkfully for Nolan and the 49ers, Carson Palmer was unable to get the Bengals into the end zone for the tying touchdown.

Let's take a look at the 49ers coaching situation.

a. Mike Nolan's record since taking over for the 2005 season: 4-12, 7-9 and 4-10 so far this year. Not good.
b. Linebacker coach Mike Singletary is a leading candidate to become the new head coach in Atlanta.
c. 49ers ownership want Mike Singletary to replace Nolan as head coach at some point in the future.

To simplify: The Mike Nolan experiment has failed. If they want to keep Mike Singletary, they'll have to fire Nolan at the end of the season.

Well, that’s if for me.

Prediction for Thursday night’s game: Steelers over the Rams.

I’ll be back with my full predictions for Week 16 on Friday afternoon.