AFC and NFC Title Game Review

Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the team990.com

I got both games right today, making me 6-4 overall this playoff season. My Super Bowl blog will be updated every day starting next Saturday. I’ll be looking at previous Super Bowls and picking out important stats and plays. Be sure not miss my daily musings: they’ll definitely be informative.

Any comments or questions: email me at jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com

Let’s get down to business shall we?

NFC and AFC Championship Game Review

Giants 23 Packers 20 (overtime)

Why did the Giants win the game?

(A)Eli Manning did not turn the ball over

(B)The opening drive of the 3rd quarter: 3 3rd down conversions, 2 by penalty. Result of the drive: touchdown and 13-10 lead. Momentum swing.

(C)The running game: look at the second half numbers as regards the pass to run ratio.

The Giants came out in the second half determined to run the ball. The run would set up the passing plays.

By running the ball the Giants could (a) keep their defense off the field, (b)keep the Packer defense guessing and (c)use the Packer hesitation to allow Eli Manning to find his recievers down the field.

The numbers: Giants ran the ball 25 times and threw 19 times in the second half and overtime.

The Packers: 7 runs and 15 passes

The result was clear: by not running the ball and throwing incompletions as a result of Favre’s deteriorating play, the Packers ended their possessions early.

44 plays from scrimmage for the Giants, only 22 for Green Bay in the second half.

Is it any wonder that the Packer defense was missing tackles in crunch time? Perhaps they were tired?

The usual excuse for this kind of lopsided pass to run ratio is that a team has no choice but to throw the ball because they are trailing by more than one possession.

This does not apply to Green Bay however. They never trailed by more than 3 points in the second half.

Coach Mike McCarthy should have insisted on running the ball and forcing the Giants defense to stack the line of scrimmage to stop Ryan Grant. Instead McCarthy became one dimensional, which allowed the Giants defense to tee off on Favre.

Hopefully with experience, Mike McCarthy will improve in that aspect of his decision making.

Now on to the good stuff

Okay, is everytone going to stop criticizing Eli Manning? I’m waiting....waiting....still waiting.

Good. I stopped my yammering a few weeks ago when complaining about Peyton’s little brother was still in vogue.

As of tonight, it no longer is. I am no longer alone in my appreciation of Eli’s talents.

Question: since 1970, how many quarterbacks have led 4th quarter/overtime game winning drives in consecutive games in the PLAYOFFS? We’re talking playoffs here. Not regular season.

Answer: Only FIVE.

The list:
Jeff Hostetler 1990 vs San Francisco (NFC Title game) vs Buffalo (Super Bowl)
Joe Montana 1993 vs Pittsburgh (Wild Card) vs Houston (Division Round)
Stan Humphries 1994 vs Miami (Division Round) vs Pittsburgh (AFC Title game)
Kurt Warner 1999 vs Tampa Bay (NFC Title game) vs Tennessee (Super Bowl)

and now we add Eli Manning to the list. Last week against Dallas and tonight against the Packers.

You can say that Eli led the game winning drive three different times against Green Bay but I don’t want to hurt Lawrence Tynes’ feelings. He’s suffering enough and besides, he kicked the game winning field goal, so all is forgiven.

Just a side note concerning Eli Manning: that is the 6th game winning drive he has engineered this season, playoffs included.

In the regular season, Eli had four game winning 4th quarter drives, tied for the league lead with Jay Cutler, Brett Favre and Tom Brady.

Eli is growing up in a hurry.

Against Tampa Bay: 20 of 27 for 185 yards and 2 touchdowns
Against Dallas: 12 of 18 for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns
Against Green Bay: 21 of 40 for 254 yards

Notice that Eli has not turned the ball over in the playoffs. Quarterback rating: 99.2

Question: what about Brett Favre? Describe Favre’s numbers for us.

Answer: I’d rather not.

It’s not pleasant to criticize legends. After all, this might have been Favre’s last game.

However, here goes.

After the Packers took a 20-17 lead with 5 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter, Brett fell apart.

The numbers say it all: from the moment he found Donald Lee in the end zone in the 3rd quarter, Favre went 5 of 12 for 48 yards and two interceptions.

After Lawrence Tynes missed a 43 yard field goal with 6:49 left in the 4th quarter, Favre had THREE opportunities to take his team down the field for the go-ahead points.

How did Favre do in those three drives?
Not well. 2 of 6 for 12 yards and of course, the horrible interception in overtime.

Sad to say, but Favre is going to regret this loss.

This was Favre’s last, and in all likelihood, best chance of getting back to the Super Bowl.

We can talk all we want about how the Packers are young and can only improve but the harsh reality is that noone can predict the future.

Jacksonville was young and improving in 1996 when they just missed getting to the Super Bowl in only their second season. Everyone talked about how they were going to make it soon afterwards because of the experience they gained that season. The Jags never got to the Super Bowl.

In the NFL teams only get a certain amount of opportunities to get to the big dance.

As I’ve already written, Brett Favre blew his last, and best, chance.

Patriots 21 Chargers 12

Norv Turner did the best coaching job possible in not only getting his banged up team ready to face the powerhouse Patriots, but in getting his squad to keep the score close heading into the 4th quarter.

For this Turner deserves plenty of praise.

However, Norv Turner also deserves blame and I will explain why.

Situation: Chargers trail 21-12 with just under 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. Ball at the Patriot 36 yard line. 1st and 10.

Being in Patriot territory and needing two scores, the Chargers had to, at worst, move the ball into field goal territory and failing that, gamble on a potential 4th down play.

The Chargers did neither. Instead of using the running game to gain a few yards to make a first down more palatable, Turner had Philip Rivers throw three consecutive passes, all of which fell incomplete, forcing a 4th and 10 with 9:20 remaining.

What was the best option for Norv Turner? There was only one option. To go for it.

How many more possessions did Norv Turner think he’d get? One more, perhaps two with a bit of luck.

No. A punt was out of the question. Gambling was the best bet on 4th and 10 from the Patriot 36.

No gamble. The Chargers punted the football. Patriots took over on their own 13 with 9:13 left in the game.

The Chargers never saw the ball again. 15 plays by the Patriots ran the clock down to zero and the game was over.

Why did the Patriots win the game?

Very simple. 4 red zone possessions for the Chargers, 4 field goals.

When a team is a huge underdog it has to score touchdowns, not field goals.

Anyway I predicted that the Chargers would need to do 5 things to beat the Patriots.

(1)Plus 2 in the turnover department: Chargers were only a plus one
(2)Special teams touchdown: Chargers didn’t get it
(3)8 yards per pass attempt: Rivers averaged 5.70 (211 yards on 37 throws
(4)keep the Patriots under 50% on 3rd downs: almost, Pats were 7 of 13
(5)sack Brady 5 times: Brady went down twice

That’s it for me. I’ll be back with my Super Bowl blog, which I’ll update every day starting next Friday.