Predictions for Divisional Playoff Round

Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the team990.com

In the Wild Card round I got both AFC games right, and both NFC games wrong.

Well here we go.

Divisional Playoffs

Jaguars at Patriots

Look. I’d love to take the Jags in an upset. I really would.

However, there are two stats people are not mentioning.

Bill Belichick is 7-0 in the playoffs at home.

Bill Belichick is 5-0 when the Patriots have a bye week in the playoffs (including Super Bowls 2003 and 2004)

I write this because whenever Belichick has time to prepare, he finds success, or success finds him.

A couple of other facts to consider when looking at the 16-0 Patriots

Were the Patriots a come from behind team?

You bet. Tom Brady led FOUR 4th quarter comebacks in 2007, tying him for the league lead with his famous contemporary Manning.

Wait. Rewind. Brady’s four 4th quarter comeback wins tied him with ELI Manning, not Peyton.

Did the Patriots protect Tom Brady in the pocket?

You bet. The Patriots allowed only 21 sacks in 2007, fifth best in the NFL.

The top four: Saints (16) Bengals (17) Browns and Packers (19)

How efficient was the Patriots passing game?

The best in the league. Forget the raw totals, it is the average gain per dropback that counts.

Patriot quarterbacks dropped back in the pocket 607 times and gained 4731 yards, an average of 7.79 yards per passing play.

2nd place: Dallas 7.38
3rd place: Green Bay 7.26

Original Prediction in my Entire Playoff Preview : Patriots 31 Jaguars 20. Nothing has changed.

Again, I’d love to pick the Jags because they can run the ball, they can stop the run, get to the quarterback and they have a quarterback who doesn’t turn the ball over.

If the Patriots didn’t have a week off I’d have picked Jacksonville.


Giants at Cowboys

If you read the Pats Jags post, you’ll know that Eli Manning led the Giants to a 4th quarter comeback victory four times this season: tied with Tom Brady for the league lead. Just something to keep in mind when you watch Eli struggle in the first half.

That week off the Cowboys had is the main reason I am picking them. True it is difficult for any team to defeat a division opponent 3 times in a season but while I think Eli is progressing nicely, he’ll have to wait another year.

I am positive that Tony Sparano and Jason Garrett, who have been interviewed by multiple teams for head coaching positions, will have their units prepared for this game. Consider it an audition tape for the owners of the Dolphins, Ravens and Falcons.


Prediction: Cowboys 31 Redskins 14: obviously the Skins lost so now I have to make another prediction: Cowboys 31 Giants 14.


Seahawks at Packers

The Seahawks are what can be called a paper tiger. They have made the playoffs five years in a row. Why? Look at their schedule.

This season, the Seahawks had the easiest schedule in football: their opponents had an adjusted combined record of 100-140

Last season, they had the third easiest schedule in the NFL: 109-131, slightly behind Atlanta and Chicago

In 2005, when they went to the Super Bowl, the Seahawks had the easiest schedule in the NFL: 107-133

In 2004, the Seahawks had the second easiest schedule in the NFL: 107-133, one game back of Atlanta.

That’s four consecutive playoff appearances aided greatly by the fact that their schedule is incredibly easy.

I cannot understand why Mike Holmgren would even consider retiring when a playoff appearance is his for the taking, year after year after........

Prediction stays the same as it was in my Entire Playoff Preview, except I have to replace Tampa Bay with Seattle: Packers 30 Seahawks 10

Bret Favre will get another playoff win, making him 12-9 for his career in the postseason. Matt Hasselback will try to get over the .500 mark: currently he is 4-4 for his playoff career.

Prediction: Green Bay 30 Seahawks 10

Chargers at Colts

When I think of this game I think of Tony Dungy’s playoff legacy. Yes, Dungy has his Super Bowl win which eliminates him from the “best coach never to win a Super Bowl” sweepstakes.

However, one thing still bothers me: Dungy only has three FINAL FOUR appearances.

That’s right: in his nine previous playoff appearances Dungy has made the AFC or NFC Championship game three times: 1999 versus the Saint Louis Rams, 2003 and 2006 versus the New England Patriots.

Just to compare, unfavorable though it may be: Marty Shottenheimer and Chuck Knox had three FINAL FOUR appearances each during their respective careers.

If the Colts lose to the San Diego Chargers, that will deal a severe blow to Tony Dungy’s legacy, especially if the rumors of him resigning are true.

By the same token, another playoff win would do wonders for Norv Turner’s reputation.

Face facts: an 11-5 season is great for Turner, how could it not be? Turner’s first nine seasons as a head coach: 58-82-1 with just one playoff appearance. So in 2007, anything close to .500 would have been an improvement.

Okay so the Chargers beat the Titans in the wild card game, giving Turner a 2-1 career post season record. But Sunday’s game against the Colts will determine whether Turner can change the perception people have of him: excellent coordinator with limited motivational skills leading to an inability to properly harness a team’s talent level.

Win and the critics will shut up.

I don’t see Philip Rivers duplicating the success he had against the Colts. With an extra week to prepare and an extra week to rest the Colts should be ready both physically and mentally for anything and everything the Chargers.

Orginal Prediction stays: Colts 28 Chargers 10


I’ll be back on Monday with a rundown of the Divisional Playoffs plus predictions for the Conference Championships.