A Review of The Divisional Round

Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the team990.com

How about a pat on the back for yours truly, Jimmy G? Truly, I am a genius.

I predicted that the Patriots would beat the Jaguars by a score of 31-20.

What was the final score? 31-20 Patriots. I am too good.

How did I do overall? 2-2 once again. Okay that wasn’t so good.

Here are my thoughts regarding the wild weekend of NFL action.

Question: Should the Colts have kicked a field goal with 2:07 left in the 4th quarter trailing 28-24?

Answer: No way. They were on the 7 yard line. True they had all three timeouts and the two minute warning. However, a failed 4th down gamble wouldn’t hurt them so much as long as they forced a three and out. A three and out would give the Colts the ball back near their own 40 yard line at worst with 1:30 left on the clock and a timeout.

What happened? Exactly that. Three and out, Manning got the ball back with 1:30 left and one timeout. The only drawback is that Scifres punt was so good that the Colts started at their 32 yard line instead of closer to midfield.

Dungy was correct in going for it. A field goal to make the score 28-27 would have been useless if the Chargers (a)returned the ensuing kickoff near midfield or (b)gained a first down.

When a team has possession late and needs a touchdown, they have to gamble. Simple as that.

Question: Who was the biggest loser on Sunday?

Answer: I hate to use the word loser. Let’s rephrase the question. Who was the biggest non-winner on Sunday?

Answer: Tony Dungy

Dungy had everything going for him

(1)a week to prepare for a home game
(2)a man on the opposite sideline who was considered a great coordinator but a failure as a head coach, i.e. a disaster waiting to happen
(3)a lead in the 4th quarter
(4)an opponent that was missing, for the entire 4th quarter (a)their starting quarterback (b)their All Pro tight end and ©) their All-World running back
(5)an opponent that was stuck with Billy Volek. a serviceable backup quarterback in place of Philip Rivers at the most crucial time
(6)some very questionable calls that went FOR the Colts in the first 3 quarters, especially the holding call that negated Cromarties 84 yard interception return for a TD late in the first half

Yet...yet...yet...The Colts still lost. Imagine the defending Super Bowl champions blowing a fourth quarter lead to ...Billy Volek.

Question: How rare is it for the defending Super Bowl champion to blow a 4th quarter lead in the playoffs?

Answer: Very rare. On the 29 previous occasions when the defending champion has qualified for the playoffs, only twice has that team blown a 4th quarter lead.

Miami Dolphins in 1974 to Oakland
San Francisco 49ers in 1990 to the NY Giants

Make that 3 of 30 now that the Colts have joined the list

Question: Including playoffs, which quarterback has the most 4th quarter comebacks this season?

Answer: After today’s games the answer is Manning, Eli Manning, with 5. Can we show some love for the baby brother?

Question: Tony Dungy is a much better playoff coach than Tom Coughlin, right? Okay here’s the question.
Who has more Final Four appearances, Dungy or Coughlin?

Answer: Neither. They both have three. Regarding playoff legacies, Dungy is lucky to have won the Super Bowl last year. Without that Super Bowl, Dungy and Coughlin have more similarities than differences. Of course the Super Bowl is quite impressive on the resume but let’s dig deeper.

Playoff records: Coughlin 6-6, Dungy 9-9
Final Four Appearances: Coughlin 3, Dungy 3

I’ll write it one more time for all the critics out there: stop blasting Tom Coughlin.

Question: Okay we won’t criticize Tom Coughlin. We’ve already cricized Tony Dungy. Who else shall we criticize?

Answer: Wade Phillips. Phillips still hasn’t won a playoff game. After today’s loss to the Giants, Bum’s baby boy is now 0-4, having lost a playoff game with three different teams.

Question: Will Wade Phillips be back as Dallas head coach in 2008?

Answer: Tough to say. Jason Garrett will be offered the head coaching position in either Baltimore, Atlanta or Miami. If Garrett wants to leave, then Jerry Jones will be left with three choices.

Choice A: wish Garrett good luck and goodbye
Choice B: offer Garrett more money to stay as coordinator (similar to what Dan Snyder did with Gregg Williams after the 2005 season)
Choice C: fire Phillips and promote Garrett to head coach

Jerry Jones mentioned earlier this week that he has no intention of firing Wade Phillips after a 13-3 season. Of course, owners and general managers have made those statements during the season quite often, then turned around and fired the coach once the season ended. So Jones’ statement holds no factual or historical value.

Question: Who was the really big winner on Sunday?

Answer: Chargers GM A.J. Smith.

Lets look at the facts:

Fact 1: AJ Smith fired Marty Shottenheimer after going 14-2 in 2006. Smith was right to fire Marty but Smith was “wrong” to hire Norv Turner as his replacement: he of the 58-82-1 record in nine seasons. Smith should have fired Marty and hired either his offensive coordinator Cam Cameron or defensive coordinator Wade Phillips.

Fact 1 rebuked: Well, Turner has led the Chargers to a pair of playoff wins. Cam Cameron went 1-15 and was fired by the Dolphins. Wade Phillips lost his first playoff game with the Cowboys, dropping to 0-4 overall.

Fact 2: AJ Smith hired Ted Cottrell as his defensive coordinator after Wade Phillips left to become head coach of the Dallas Cowboys. Many, including myself thought this was a ridiculous hire.

Cottrell had been fired by the Bills in 2000 (along with head coach Wade Phillips, ooohh the irony) the Jets in 2003 and the Vikings in 2005. Hardly a resume that inspires confidence.

Fact 2 rebuked: Who’s laughing now? Cottrell’s defense stopped Peyton Manning twice in the final 5 minutes with the season on the line.

Fact 3: AJ Smith let Drew Brees sign with New Orleans last year. Big mistake. Brees responded by leading the Saints to the NFC Championship game. Brees was replaced by Phillip Rivers, who played poorly while losing to the Patriots in the divisional round.

Fact 3 rebuked: in 2007 Brees put up great numbers but finished 7-9. Rivers put up decent numbers in the regular season but has played brilliantly in two playoff wins: 33 of 49 for 556 yards and four touchdown passes. 11.34 yards per pass attempt. Think about that number. 11:34. It means that for every time Rivers drops back in the pocket, the Chargers can count on a first down. That is impressive.

Short term history will show that AJ Smith made the correct decision as regards the (a)head coach (b)defensive coordinator and (c)quarterback.

Question: Can the Chargers beat the Patriots next week?

Answer: Only if they receive the following

(A)clean bills of health for LT, Gates and Rivers
(B)Rivers can repeat his numbers from the last 2 weeks
(c)they have to get to Tom Brady at least 4 times
(d)they have to be a plus 2 in the turnover department
(e)special teams will have to produce great field position twice

That's way too many things that have to go the Chargers way.

I'll be back with my predictions blog for the AFC and NFC Championship games on Friday.

Jimmy