Week 17 In The NFL

Welcome Back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy on the team990.com

This week’s blog will be in the Question and Answer format

Question Number One

It is Tuesday afternoon and one coach had been fired already (Brian Billick) Who else will be fired by the end of the week?

Answer: Scott Linehan, Mike Nolan, John Fox and Cam Cameron and Emmitt Thomas.

Question Number Two

Who will replace them?

Answer: I am not sure how Atlanta and Carolina will proceed but here are my predictions for the other teams.

Defensive coordinators in St Louis, San Francisco and Baltimore will all move into the top slots:
Jim Haslett, Mike Singletary and Rex Ryan.
Cards offensive coordinator Todd Haley will be Parcells’ head man in Miami, having worked with the Tuna in Dallas.

Question Number Three

The Browns finished 10-6 and missed the playoffs? Should we have any sympathy for Romeo Crennell and his gang?

Answer: A bit, but not much. Let’s compare the Titans and Browns schedules.

The Titans faced opponents who finished with a combined adjusted won loss record of 122-118.
The Browns faced opponents who finished with a combined adjusted won loss record of 104-136

Cleveland’s schedule was the FIFTEENTH EASIEST schedule in the 16 game era (786 qualifiers)

The Titans 10 wins came against opponents who finished with a 70-90 record
The Browns 10 wins came against teams with a combined 55-105 record

So the numbers would indicate that the Titans beat much tougher opponents while facing a harder schedule. Jeff Fisher deserved to make the playoffs.

But here is one more reason why Jeff Fisher deserved to make the playoffs ahead of Romeo in 2007.

Last season the Titans and Jeff Fisher had the FOURTH toughest schedule ever in the 16 game era, yet just missed making the playoffs.

So consider 2007 the season where good people get good things given to them.

Question Number Four

Can a coach, such as Tom Coughlin, with three consecutive playoff appearances be fired?

Answer: You bet. It’s happened quite a few times, and don’t be surprised if it happens gain.

When and who? Bum Phillips, Houston (‘78 to ‘80), Jerry Glanville, Houston (‘87 to ‘89) Buddy Ryan, Philadelphia (‘88 to ‘90) and more recently, Tony Dungy, Tampa Bay (‘99 to ‘01)

Question Number Four
Did the 8-8 Philadelphia Eagles overachieve or underachieve in 2007?

Answer: Overachieve. The Eagles had a remarkable season, despite going .500

Why? Because Philly had the TENTH most difficult schedule EVER in the 16 game era. Tenth most difficult out of 786 QUALIFIERS!!!! Now that is a killer schedule.

Philly’s opponents had an adjusted won loss record of 136-104.

Which teams in the 16 game era (1978 onwards) have had tougher records than Andy Reid’s gang this year?

In order here they are: Jets 1999, Cardinals 1991, Bengals 1979, Jets 2000, Titans 2006, Bills 2006, Bears 2000, Dolphins 1999 and the 1990 Patriots.

The fact that the Eagles could even get to .500 is a testament to the coaching ability of Andy Reid.

Question Number Five
Is there a quarterback controversy in Washington ?

Answer: There shouldn’t be. Apparently Jason Campbell will be ready for the wild card game versus Seattle. But I do not care. Todd Collins has taken control of the Redskin offense and is moving them down the field efficiently without turning the ball over.

Unless Collins struggles, Campbell should stay on the sidelines.

Question Number Six
Is there a quarterback controversy in Tennessee?

Answer: There shouldn’t be. If Vince Young is healthy, he plays. Simple as that.

Like Todd Collins, Kerry Collins is a veteran quarterback who knows the playbook and for the most part, can avoid turnovers, as witnessed by his very efficient performance against the Colt scrubs Sunday night.

However, unlike Jason Campbell, Vince Young is a quarterback with winning experience and the ability to turn games around with his legs.

Question Number Seven
Has Marvin Lewis saved his job ?

Answer: You bet he has....for at least one more season. When the Bengals were 2-6 at the halfway mark, I would have put even money that Lewis would be gone after the season.

However the Bengals rebounded to a 5-3 finish, including three wins in their last 4 games.

Included in that streak were wins over a pair of 10-6 teams: Cleveland and Tennessee

This is the first time that Marvin Lewis’ five seasons that the Bengals have finished with a record below .500

Just to compare, have a look at the Bengals record with and without Lewis on the sidelines:

5 seasons with Marvin Lewis as head coach: 42-38-0
5 seasons prior to Lewis joining the Bengals: 19-61-0

Question Number Eight
Should Mike Nolan be fired as 49ers Head Coach?

Answer: Absolutely. Here are Nolan’s won loss records since taking over in 2005
2005: 4-12
2006: 7-9
2007: 5-11

Based on the preceding information, should anyone expect Mike Nolan to be successful in 2008? 4?

It is not enough for me to simply have an opinion on this subject so I’ll look at recent history to guide me and the readers.

So here goes. How many coaches (in the 16 game era) have started their careers with three straight losing seasons?

Here is the list:
Dan Henning, Atlanta (‘83 to ‘85) 7-9, 4-12 and 4-12
Gene Stallings, Cardinals (‘86 to ‘88) 4-11-1, 7-8 and 7-9
Darryl Rogers, Detroit (‘85 to ‘87) 7-9, 5-11 and 4-12
Bill Belichick, Cleveland (‘91 to ‘93) 6-10, 7-9 and 7-9
David Shula, Cincinnati (‘92 to ‘94) 5-11, 3-13 and 3-13
David McGinnis, Arizona (‘01 to ‘03) 7-9, 5-11 and 4-12
David Campo, Dallas (‘00 to ‘02) 5-11, 5-11 and 5-11

Look closely and take notes on these seven coaches.

Note 1: Two coaches (Campo and McGinnis) were fired
Note 2: Gene Stallings and Darryl Rogers were brought back, yet were fired before finishing their fourth season.
Note 3: Dan Henning lasted an entire fourth season, finished under .500 AGAIN, then was fired
Note 4: David Shula lasted an entire fourth season, finished under .500 AGAIN (surprised?), was brought back for a fifth season which he failed to complete, due to his finally being fired after a 2-5 start.

This is the tricky part:
Note 5: Bill Belichick wasn’t fired after three straight losing seasons in Cleveland, and the Browns faith was rewarded with an 11-5 record and a playoff victory over the New England Patriots. The following year, Belichick reverted to his sub .500 methods, going 5-11 and finally being removed.

If you are a member of the 49ers management, what choice do you have? The data would overwhelmingly suggest that if a coach cannot reach .500 once in his first three seasons, he never will.

Hope you enjoyed my abbreviated posting today.

I’ll be back with my wild card predictions on Friday.