Mike Holmgren and The Easy Schedule: A Case Study

Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the team990.com

Small note: I'll be producing The Ministry of Sports Monday nights from 11 p.m to 1 a.m. As always it'll be a great show as Simon and George will hammer home their differing viewpoints, and hey, even I might get involved.

Now onto business.....

Mike Holmgren, Adjusted Opponents Schedule Strength And The Easy Schedule

Seahawks Head Coach Mike Holmgren recently announced that the 2008 season would be his last. On one level I can understand Holmgren’s reasoning: he’s been a head coach since 1992, he is in all likelihood exhausted by the day to day rigors of professional football.

But on an entirely different level, why would Holmgren even consider retiring?

What level is that, you might ask? Let’s get right into it.

Holmgren should consider himself lucky because he has three reasons to stick around

Reason number 1: schedule. Reason number 2 is also schedule and reason number 3 is...you get the idea.

Let’s take a look at how RIDICULOUSLY easy the Seahawks schedule has been in recent years.

But.......

Before we get to Mike Holmgren, allow me to explain how an OPPONENTS SCHEDULE STRENGTH is determined.

THREE easy steps

Step One: take the won-loss records of a team’s 16 opponents and add them up. This will give you a total of 256 games. How? A team’s 16 opponents play 16 games each: 16 multiplied by 16 equals 256.

Let’s take the Seahawks from this past season. If you add up the won loss record of their opponents it equals 106 wins and 150 losses.

Step Two: Reverse your team’s won loss record, in this case Seattle’s. Seattle went 10-6, so we’ll turn it around to make it 6-10. I’ll explain later.

Step Three: Take the Step 2 numbers and deduct them from Step 1. Like this:

Step 1: 106-150
Step 2: 6-10
Deduct: 100-140

Why do we reverse Seattle’s record so that it reads 6-10 instead of 10-6.

Because we want to determine how Seattle’s opponents did in games that did NOT involve the Seahawks. Doing this gives us a better idea as to which team faces a tougher, or in Seattle’s case, easier schedule.

I’ll give you an example: The New England Patriots faced opponents in 2007 that combined for a 120-136 record, which is an easy schedule by any standards. However, that 120-136 record was heavily influenced by the fact that the Patriots were 16-0.

The reality is quite different however. Let’s take a look using New England and Tampa Bay as examples.

The Patriots and Tampa Bay both finished the season with an opponents won loss record of 120-136. Does this mean that their schedule strength was equal? Absolutely not.

The Bucs finished 9-7, meaning that their opponents had a 113-127 record when you factored out games involving Jon Gruden’s gang.

Step 1: 120-136
Step 2: 7-9 (reverse of 9-7)
Step 3: 113-127

The Patriots, as we all know, went 16-0. This means that their opponents were 120-120 when you looked at every game EXCEPT those involving the Pats.

Look at those numbers again and you will see how much more difficult the Pats had it than say, Tampa Bay. The average New England opponent had a .500 record. And the Pats still went 16-0.

While the Bucs, even with an easier schedule, squeaked out a 9-7 record.

Now that I’ve explained how to calculate OPPONENTS SCHEDULE STRENGTH, I’ll return to the subject of Mike Holmgren and the Seattle Seahawks.

In 2007, not only did the Seahawks have the easiest schedule in the NFL, but they also were tied for the seventh easiest schedule EVER in the 16 game era.

The Ten Easiest Schedules EVER (16 game era)

Saint Louis 1999 90-150-0 (.375)
Tampa Bay 1979 91-149-0 (.379)
Arizona 1998 94-146-0 (.391)
Denver 2000 98-142-0 (.408)
Jacksonville 1999 98-142-0 (.408)
Carolina 1999 99-141-0 (.413)
7. SEATTLE 2007 100-140-0 (.417)
7. Chicago 1986 100-140-0 (.417)
7. Detroit 1980 100-140-0 (.417)
7. Tampa Bay 1978 100-140-0 (.417)

Let’s take this easy schedule argument a little further, shall we?

Since the start of the 2003 season, on 98 occasions a coach has completed consecutive seasons without being fired, or, with Herman Edwards, fired but back in the NFL without missing a game. (Edwards fired as NYJ coach after 2005, but hired by KC immediately)

The Top SIX easiest schedules over a 2 year period since 2003 (98 possibilities)

Mike Holmgren 2006-07 209-271-0 (.435)
Mike Holmgren 2004-05 214-266-0 (.446)
Mike Holmgren 2005-06 216-264-0 (.450)
Lovie Smith 2005-06 219-261-0 (.456)
5.Lovie Smith 2004-05 220-260-0 (.458)
5.Mike Holmgren 2003-04 220-260-0 (.458)

That’s not a misprint. EVERY possibility involving Mike Holmgren ranked at the very top of the easy schedule pyramid.

Now let’s take a look at how Seattle’s schedule strength over a 2 year period compares in the entire 16 game era, which began in 1978. The 16 game era encompasses 662 possible outcomes involving coaches who lasted consecutive seasons without being fired or resigning.

The Top TWENTY Easiest Two Year Schedules Since 1978 (662 Possibilities)

** in the cases of the strike shortened 1982 and 1987 seasons, the opponents winning percentage is prorated

John McKay, Tampa Bay 1978-79 191-285-4 (.402)
Vince Tobin, Arizona 1998-99 205-270-0 (.427)
Mike Ditka, Chicago 1986-87 157-210-5 (.432)
4.MIKE HOLMGREN, Seattle 2006-07 209-271-0 (.435)
4.George Siefert, Carolina 1999-00 209-271-0 (.435)
Vince Tobin, Arizona 1997-98 206-267-7 (.437)
Bart Starr, Green Bay 1982-83 138-173-1 (.439)
John McKay, Tampa Bay 1979-80 211-268-1 (.441)
Mike Ditka, Chicago 1982-83 138-174-0 (.443)
10.Tom Coughlin, Jacksonville 1998-99 214-266-0 (.446)
10.Neil Armstrong, Chicago 1978-79 212-264-4 (.446)
MIKE HOLMGREN, Seattle 2004-05 214-266-0 (.446)
Dan Reeves, Atlanta 1997-98 214-265-1 (.447)
14.Tom Coughlin, Jacksonville 1999-00 215-265-0 (.448)
14.Mike Shanahan, Denver 2000-01 215-265-0 (.448)
Chuck Noll, Pittsburgh 2003-04 215-265-0 (.448)
Gene Stallings, Arizona 1987-88 171-201-0 (.448)
Daryl Rogers, Detroit 1986-87 166-202-4 (.449)
Jerry Burns, Minnesota 1987-88 169-201-2 (.449)
20.Ted Marchibroda, Colts 1994-95 216-264-0 (.450)
MIKE HOLMGREN, Seattle 2005-06 216-264-0 (.450)
Tom Coughlin, Jacksonville 1995-96 216-264-0 (.450)

Okay, this is quite impressive. Mike Holmgren’s LAST three 32 game spans are ALL among the TOP TWENTY (among 662 POSSIBILITIES!!!!) since 1978.

There is one other name which appears on this list THREE times: TOM COUGHLIN, back in the days when he was the head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Now let us take a look at how easy Mike Holmgren’s schedules have been over a 3 year period in the 16 game era.

The Top TEN Easiest Three Year Schedules Since 1978 (507 possibilities)
** in the cases of the strike shortened 1982 and 1987 seasons, the opponents winning percentage is prorated

John McKay, Tampa Bay 1978-80 311-404-5 (.435)
MIKE HOLMGREN, Seattle 2005-07 316-404-0 (.439)
Mike Ditka, Chicago 1986-88 267-340-5 (.441)
Vince Tobin, Arizona 1997-99 317-369-7 (.445)
MIKE HOLMGREN, Seattle 2004-06 323-397-0 (.449)
Vince Tobin, Arizona 1996-98 320-393-7 (.449)
Chuck Noll, Pittsburgh 1983-85 325-395-0 (.451)
Ray Malavasi, Los Angeles 1980-82 256-293-3 (.453)
John McKay, Tampa Bay 326-393-1 (.453)
10.Lovie Smith, Chicago 2004-05 327-393-0 (.454)
MIKE HOLMGREN, Seattle 2003-05 327-393-0 (.454)

Once again, this is impressive. Mike Holmgren’s LAST three 48 game spans are ALL among the TOP TEN( among 507 possibilities!!!)

Finally, allow me to tackle where Mike Holmgren stands all time as regards OPPONENTS SCHEDULE STRENGTH.

Since 1946 there are 54 head coaches who have been on the sidelines for 135 games or more.

Top TEN Since 1946, OPPONENTS SCHEDULE STRENGTH (135 + games, 54 qualifiers)

**12 game and 14 game seasons have been prorated to 16 games, as have the strike shortened 1982 and 1987 seasons

MIKE HOLMGREN, 1992-2007 1828-2010-2 (.47630)
Mike Ditka, 1982-1992 1997-99 1478-1597-9 (.47768)
Bud Grant, 1967-83, 1985 1645-1798-71 (.47977)
Joe Kuharich, 1952, 1954-8, 1964-8 784-851-67 (.48109)
Don Shula, 1963-1995 3216-3450-108 (.48234)
George Siefert, 1989-96 1999-2001 1274-1366-0 (.48258)
Wally Lemm, 1961-1970 820-873-62 (.48489)
Bill Cowher, 1992-2006 1753-1843-4 (48750)
Jon Gruden, 1998-2007 1170-1227-3 (.48812)
Steve Mariucci, 1997-2005 1018-1066-1 (.48849)

Yes, even if you include Holmgren's seven years with the Packers, Holmgren still ranks first all time (or at least since 1946) when it comes to having an easy schedule.

If we expand the study to include head coaches with over 100 games on the sidelines, we find things: (1)there will be an additional 21 coaches on the list, for a total of 75 and (2)Mike Holmgren would drop to 2fifth place all time.

The Top FIVE Since 1946, Opponents Schedule Strength (100 + games, 75 qualifiers)

**12 game and 14 game seasons have been prorated to 16 games, as have the strike shortened 1982 and 1987 seasons

Blanton Collier, 1963-1970 641-746-69 (.46394)
Leeman Bennett, 1977-82, 1985-86 804-885-5 (.47420)
John McKay, 1976-84 868-1000-8 (.47553)
Monte Clark, 1976, 1978-84 800-880-14 (.47582)
MIKE HOLMGREN, 1992-2007 1828-2010-2 (.47630)

Mike Holmgren has led a charmed existence since taking over the Green Bay Packers in 1992 and the easy living hasn't stopped since his move to the Pacific Northwest.

At this pace, I would recommend to Mike Holmgren that he stay put: don't retire. Another 2 to 3 years with these easy schedules will allow Holmgren to amass (a)at least 10 wins per season and (b)more playoff appearances.

More wins and more playoff spots will make it easier for Hall of Fame voters to truly consider Mike Holmgren as Canton material.

At the very least it won't hurt.

That's it for me. Remember to tune in to The Ministry of Sports on Monday nights on the Team 990. I will be the producer, Simon Tsalikis and George Caperis will provide the entertainment.

Hope you'll tune it and I hope you'll return to my blog next Monday.