Dick Jauron, what were you thinking?
Situation: The Bills have just gotten the ball on their own 21 yard line, down 17-7 with
What should the Bills do? What else can they do? Try to get the ball down the field by moving the chains and stopping the clock. 2 timeouts gives you the chance to use the middle of the field. 73 seconds is plenty of time to get into field goal position, with or without timeouts.
What did Bills coach Dick Jauron do? Jauron called consecutive running plays to Marshawn Lynch up the middle to run out the clock.
What was that all about? Giving up the chance to go down the field used up the end of the first half. Coach Dick Jauron knew he’d be kicking the ball to start the second half, so there goes another possession.
Yes, Dick Jauron had Trent Edwards, a backup quarterback, in the game. But when you are trailing by two possessions, you have to place some trust in him. You are already trailing by two possessions. You cannot throw away opportunities during an NFL game.
Being 3-0 is a reasonable guarantee of future success
The Steeler, Patriots, Colts, Packers and Cowboys are all 3-0. They should feel real comfortable.
In 2004, 6 teams started 3-0. Only
In 2005, 4 teams started 3-0. All of them made the playoffs.
Last season, 6 teams started 3-0. Only the Bengals failed to qualify for the playoffs, finishing 8-8.
For those counting, that is a success rate of 14 of 16 making the playoffs after starting 3-0 since 2004.
Being 0-3 is a sign that your season is over
If you are the Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Falcons or the Rams, you are feeling the blues because you are 0-3 and 0-3 is a death sentence in the NFL, if recent history is any indication.
How many teams, not including this season, have started 0-3 since 1995? 66
How many times has an 0-3 team recovered to make the playoffs. 2
What is the most common finishing record for a 0-3 team?
2 teams finished 1-15
6 teams finished 2-14
8 teams finished 3-13
12 teams finished 4-12
10 teams finished 5-11
10 teams finished 6-10
10 teams finished 7-9
4 teams finished 8-8
2 teams finished 9-7
2 teams finished 10-6
As you can see, the majority of teams ended up somewhere between 4-12 to 7-9.
Dick Jauron, what were you thinking Part 2?
Situation: by now the score is 31-7 for the Patriots, final minute of the third quarter. Clock moving, 4th and 1 for the Bills offense at their own 45 yard line.
Needless to say, there is only one possible scenario. Go for it. Down 3 possessions, with 16 minutes to play the only way to get back in the game is to get a first down right here and now, keep moving the chains, get some touchdowns and hope for a few Patriot turnovers.
True, the odds are severely stacked but punting the football means you are giving up.
Coach Jauron decided to punt. And yes, the Patriots started their next drive on the 2 yard line so the punt itself was executed perfectly.
However 11 plays later, the Patriots scored again. Final score 38-7 Patriots.
The coaching manual will tell Dick Jauron to punt the football whenever it is 4th down in your territory unless it is the 4th quarter and the clock dictates otherwise. So Dick Jauron followed standard procedure.
I wonder if the coaching manual recommends that a head coach possess a record of 43-61 in their 7th season with only one playoff appearance to show for it.
The Patriots have completely dominated thus far
The Patriots are 3-0 to start the season. Well, that’s not strange, since 42 teams, including 2007, have started off 3-0 this decade, an average of just over five per season.
What is rare, however, is that neither the Jets, Chargers or the Bills have been within 8 points of the Patriots at any time during the fourth quarter. That is three straight games to start the season where the Patriots opponent has never been one possession away from at least tying the game with a 2 point convert in the 4th quarter.
How rare is that? Since 1995, this has happened five times. How did those teams eventually fare?
1995 Miami Dolphins, (Don Shula’s last team) 9-7, Lost in Wild Card Round
1996 Green Bay Packers, 13-3, Super Bowl Champions
2001 Green Bay Packers, 12-4, Lost in Divisional Round
2003 Kansas City Chiefs, 13-3, Lost in Divisional Round
2005 Cincinnati Bengals, 11-5, Lost in Wild Card Round
So if anyone out there is worried about Bill Belichick’s crew missing the playoffs, you can breathe easier.
The Bears better hope that the following statistic is meaningless
The Bears have lost the turnover battle in each of their three games.
The Bears have also had a lower yards per pass play than their opponents in each of their three games.
Irrelevant? Perhaps.
However, if you are a Bears fan, you might want to skip this next part.
How many teams have lost the turnover and yards per pass play battle in each of their first three games in a season this decade?
The list:
Seattle 2000 6-10
Cincinnati 2000 4-12
Minnesota 2001 5-11
Detroit 2001 2-14
Dallas 2001 5-11
Minnesota 2002 6-10
Cincinnati 2002 2-14
Houston 2005 2-14
Not an illustrious group to say the least. On the high end you have a 6-10 finish, on the low side 2-14.
This is not to suggest that the Bears will wind up being as unsuccessful as these teams: but it is something to think about.
Tom Coughlin, what about that timeout?
Situation: 0:46 left in the first half. Redskins lead the Giants 14-3. The Redskins have run a play in bounds that ended at the Giant 30 yard line. Clock is moving and it is fourth down. The Redskins are going to line up for a 47 yard field goal attempt. The Giants have 3 timeouts.
What should the Giants do? What else can they do? The Giants should call their first timeout. Stop the clock with 0:46 left in the half.
Why? Because a 47 yard field goal attempt is hardly a guarantee in the NFL. If the Redskins miss the field goal, the Giants will gain possession at the spot of the kick, which is their own 37 yard line. A field goal attempt takes approximately 5 seconds off the game clock, so there would be 40 seconds left in the half, your quarterback will have 2 timeouts to get the team in field goal position.
What did Tom Coughlin do? Coach Coughlin did not call a timeout, allowing the Redskins to let the game clock go down to 4 seconds. The Redskins were not going to stop the clock because doing so would have given Eli Manning one final possession to end the half, with three timeouts. Shaun Suisham ended up kicking the field goal to give the Skins a 17-3 lead heading into halftime.
Even if Coach Coughlin knew the field goal was going through, he should have called a timeout. If the kick is good, the Giants would get the ball back with 2 timeouts and just over 30 seconds to play in the half. A good kickoff return for the Giants would have been a huge bonus.
Despite this poor decision making, Tom Coughlin is forgiven because....
Joe Gibbs, what did you teach your quarterback?
Situation number 1: the Redskins are trailing the Giants by 7, have just gotten a first down with 1:35 left in the 4th quarter at the Giant 18 yard line, the clock is moving, no timeouts remaining. On the next play, quarterback Jason Campbell is sacked for a 3 yard loss, so now it is 2nd and 13. There is still
What should the Redskins do? The long held theory on clock management in the 2 minute drill is that you spike the ball to stop the clock on either (a)a first down completion, (b)2nd down and short yardage to go. Why short yardage? Because it is four down territory, so the team is going for it on 4th down, unless it is a field goal game and you are inside the opponents 35 yard line. So a spike doesn’t hurt you as much since you can theoretically run the ball down the middle for a first down more easily than throw for a first down in a long yardage situation.
So what does Jason Campbell do? After the sack, he hurries to the line of scrimmage and spikes the ball with
The spike means that the Skins will need 13 yards for a first down. This is not a short yardage situation.
Despite this decision, Coach Joe Gibbs and QB Jason Campbell are forgiven because on the next play,
However what happened next was unforgivable....
Joe Gibbs, what did you teach your quarterback, Part 2?
Situation number 2: Okay the Skins have a first and goal at the 1 yard line, clock moving with just under a minute to play.
What should the Redskins do? Plenty of things can be done in this situation: a bootleg, play action fake, run up the middle, pretty much anything from offensive coordinator Al Saunder’s playbook.
So let us rephrase the question. The question is: what should not be done by the Redskins?
Keep in mind that on a passing play, an elite functioning offense takes approximately 16 seconds
to complete a pass under 25 yards, run to the line of scrimmage and spike the ball. If you have the ball at the 1 yard line, it will take only 8-10 seconds to line up and spike the ball since everyone on offense will be only a few yards from the line of scrimmage.
So what should the Redskins absolutely NOT do in this situation? They should NOT spike the ball.
Well, Jason Campbell spiked the ball, stopping the clock with 0:51 seconds remaining.
What did this spike do? It gave the Redskins only 3 chances to score from the 1 yard line as opposed to 4, since it became 2nd and goal. Yes, it stopped the clock but the Skins could have run 4 plays from the one yard line in the final minute, even without timeouts.
Joe Gibbs, what did you teach your quarterback, Part 3?
Situation number 3: Okay, the damage is done. Only 3 cracks, not 4, to force overtime from the one yard line. The odds are still in the Skins favor.
What happens? 3rd down run by Ledell Betts is stopped at the goal line, whistle blows to reset play clock with 40 seconds remaining in the game, the clock is moving.
Teams have 40 seconds to snap the ball from the end of the previous play. Therefore the Redskins have until the end of the 4th quarter to snap the ball. This is their last drive. If the Skins do not get a touchdown, the game is over.
Why is this obvious detail important? Because it means that whether the Skins score with 20 seconds left or 25 seconds left or with no time remaining is unimportant. They will not get the ball unless it is in overtime.
What is important is that they get the proper play called in from the sidelines. With the play clock and the game clock being even, and this being 4th down from the 1, Joe Gibbs and offensive coordinator Al Saunders should have instructed Jason Campbell on the headset and from the sideline, telling their young QB to take his time. Don’t panic kid. Plenty of time on the clock to line up everyone properly.
What ended up happening?
Jason Campbell unwisely rushed up to the line of scrimmage along with his disorganized teammates, called a running play to Ledell Betts that resulted in a 2 yard loss. Change of possession. Game over.
Joe Gibbs get a failing grade for
(a)not teaching his quarterback when to spike the ball in the 2 minute drill
(b)not instructing his quarterback to take his time on the 4th down play
Marvin Lewis, you made the right call
Situation: trailing 17-15 with 2:42 remaining in the 4th quarter, the Bengals score a touchdown to take the lead 21-17 pending the extra point attempt.
Should the Bengals go for 2 and lead by 6, or kick the automatic extra point and lead by 5?
The Bengals went for 2 and failed. The lead was now only 4.
Despite that, the right decision was made. If the Bengals get 2, their lead is 23-17. Now many may be thinking that a touchdown still beats the Bengals whether the lead is 5 or 6.
However, as Ministry of Sports host and die hard Bengals fan George Caperis can easily attest to, extra points are hardly automatic. Does anyone remember the Bengals missing an extra point at the end of regulation against
And finally, a final note from Week 3, involving Joe Gibbs once more, just for fun
Announcers keep talking about Turnover Differential being a huge statistic and they are correct.
I am capitalizing the “T” and the “D” to show my solidarity with those announcers.
Here are the won loss records for teams with a plus 2 Turnover Differential this decade:
2006 61-11
2005 45-11
2004 45-8
2003 53-7
2002 60-12
2001 45-15
2000 48-6
Overall since the start of the 2000 season 357-70 (winning percentage of .836)
In 2007, teams are 11-1 when having a plus 2 Turnover Differential.
The only exception? You guessed it: the Redskins against the Giants.
Since I have spent so many words criticizing the Joe Gibbs clock management already, I decided to finish by mentioning how Coach Gibbs failed to win a game where 83.6% of his colleagues have succeeded in recent years.
Until next week, this is Jimmy G from the Team 990.
