Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the team990.com
Small note: I'll be producing The Ministry of Sports Monday nights from 11 p.m to 1 a.m. As always it'll be a great show as Simon and George will hammer home their differing viewpoints, and hey, even I might get involved.
Now onto business.....
Mike Holmgren, Adjusted Opponents Schedule Strength And The Easy Schedule
Seahawks Head Coach Mike Holmgren recently announced that the 2008 season would be his last. On one level I can understand Holmgren’s reasoning: he’s been a head coach since 1992, he is in all likelihood exhausted by the day to day rigors of professional football.
But on an entirely different level, why would Holmgren even consider retiring?
What level is that, you might ask? Let’s get right into it.
Holmgren should consider himself lucky because he has three reasons to stick around
Reason number 1: schedule. Reason number 2 is also schedule and reason number 3 is...you get the idea.
Let’s take a look at how RIDICULOUSLY easy the Seahawks schedule has been in recent years.
But.......
Before we get to Mike Holmgren, allow me to explain how an OPPONENTS SCHEDULE STRENGTH is determined.
THREE easy steps
Step One: take the won-loss records of a team’s 16 opponents and add them up. This will give you a total of 256 games. How? A team’s 16 opponents play 16 games each: 16 multiplied by 16 equals 256.
Let’s take the Seahawks from this past season. If you add up the won loss record of their opponents it equals 106 wins and 150 losses.
Step Two: Reverse your team’s won loss record, in this case Seattle’s. Seattle went 10-6, so we’ll turn it around to make it 6-10. I’ll explain later.
Step Three: Take the Step 2 numbers and deduct them from Step 1. Like this:
Step 1: 106-150
Step 2: 6-10
Deduct: 100-140
Why do we reverse Seattle’s record so that it reads 6-10 instead of 10-6.
Because we want to determine how Seattle’s opponents did in games that did NOT involve the Seahawks. Doing this gives us a better idea as to which team faces a tougher, or in Seattle’s case, easier schedule.
I’ll give you an example: The New England Patriots faced opponents in 2007 that combined for a 120-136 record, which is an easy schedule by any standards. However, that 120-136 record was heavily influenced by the fact that the Patriots were 16-0.
The reality is quite different however. Let’s take a look using New England and Tampa Bay as examples.
The Patriots and Tampa Bay both finished the season with an opponents won loss record of 120-136. Does this mean that their schedule strength was equal? Absolutely not.
The Bucs finished 9-7, meaning that their opponents had a 113-127 record when you factored out games involving Jon Gruden’s gang.
Step 1: 120-136
Step 2: 7-9 (reverse of 9-7)
Step 3: 113-127
The Patriots, as we all know, went 16-0. This means that their opponents were 120-120 when you looked at every game EXCEPT those involving the Pats.
Look at those numbers again and you will see how much more difficult the Pats had it than say, Tampa Bay. The average New England opponent had a .500 record. And the Pats still went 16-0.
While the Bucs, even with an easier schedule, squeaked out a 9-7 record.
Now that I’ve explained how to calculate OPPONENTS SCHEDULE STRENGTH, I’ll return to the subject of Mike Holmgren and the Seattle Seahawks.
In 2007, not only did the Seahawks have the easiest schedule in the NFL, but they also were tied for the seventh easiest schedule EVER in the 16 game era.
The Ten Easiest Schedules EVER (16 game era)
Saint Louis 1999 90-150-0 (.375)
Tampa Bay 1979 91-149-0 (.379)
Arizona 1998 94-146-0 (.391)
Denver 2000 98-142-0 (.408)
Jacksonville 1999 98-142-0 (.408)
Carolina 1999 99-141-0 (.413)
7. SEATTLE 2007 100-140-0 (.417)
7. Chicago 1986 100-140-0 (.417)
7. Detroit 1980 100-140-0 (.417)
7. Tampa Bay 1978 100-140-0 (.417)
Let’s take this easy schedule argument a little further, shall we?
Since the start of the 2003 season, on 98 occasions a coach has completed consecutive seasons without being fired, or, with Herman Edwards, fired but back in the NFL without missing a game. (Edwards fired as NYJ coach after 2005, but hired by KC immediately)
The Top SIX easiest schedules over a 2 year period since 2003 (98 possibilities)
Mike Holmgren 2006-07 209-271-0 (.435)
Mike Holmgren 2004-05 214-266-0 (.446)
Mike Holmgren 2005-06 216-264-0 (.450)
Lovie Smith 2005-06 219-261-0 (.456)
5.Lovie Smith 2004-05 220-260-0 (.458)
5.Mike Holmgren 2003-04 220-260-0 (.458)
That’s not a misprint. EVERY possibility involving Mike Holmgren ranked at the very top of the easy schedule pyramid.
Now let’s take a look at how Seattle’s schedule strength over a 2 year period compares in the entire 16 game era, which began in 1978. The 16 game era encompasses 662 possible outcomes involving coaches who lasted consecutive seasons without being fired or resigning.
The Top TWENTY Easiest Two Year Schedules Since 1978 (662 Possibilities)
** in the cases of the strike shortened 1982 and 1987 seasons, the opponents winning percentage is prorated
John McKay, Tampa Bay 1978-79 191-285-4 (.402)
Vince Tobin, Arizona 1998-99 205-270-0 (.427)
Mike Ditka, Chicago 1986-87 157-210-5 (.432)
4.MIKE HOLMGREN, Seattle 2006-07 209-271-0 (.435)
4.George Siefert, Carolina 1999-00 209-271-0 (.435)
Vince Tobin, Arizona 1997-98 206-267-7 (.437)
Bart Starr, Green Bay 1982-83 138-173-1 (.439)
John McKay, Tampa Bay 1979-80 211-268-1 (.441)
Mike Ditka, Chicago 1982-83 138-174-0 (.443)
10.Tom Coughlin, Jacksonville 1998-99 214-266-0 (.446)
10.Neil Armstrong, Chicago 1978-79 212-264-4 (.446)
MIKE HOLMGREN, Seattle 2004-05 214-266-0 (.446)
Dan Reeves, Atlanta 1997-98 214-265-1 (.447)
14.Tom Coughlin, Jacksonville 1999-00 215-265-0 (.448)
14.Mike Shanahan, Denver 2000-01 215-265-0 (.448)
Chuck Noll, Pittsburgh 2003-04 215-265-0 (.448)
Gene Stallings, Arizona 1987-88 171-201-0 (.448)
Daryl Rogers, Detroit 1986-87 166-202-4 (.449)
Jerry Burns, Minnesota 1987-88 169-201-2 (.449)
20.Ted Marchibroda, Colts 1994-95 216-264-0 (.450)
MIKE HOLMGREN, Seattle 2005-06 216-264-0 (.450)
Tom Coughlin, Jacksonville 1995-96 216-264-0 (.450)
Okay, this is quite impressive. Mike Holmgren’s LAST three 32 game spans are ALL among the TOP TWENTY (among 662 POSSIBILITIES!!!!) since 1978.
There is one other name which appears on this list THREE times: TOM COUGHLIN, back in the days when he was the head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Now let us take a look at how easy Mike Holmgren’s schedules have been over a 3 year period in the 16 game era.
The Top TEN Easiest Three Year Schedules Since 1978 (507 possibilities)
** in the cases of the strike shortened 1982 and 1987 seasons, the opponents winning percentage is prorated
John McKay, Tampa Bay 1978-80 311-404-5 (.435)
MIKE HOLMGREN, Seattle 2005-07 316-404-0 (.439)
Mike Ditka, Chicago 1986-88 267-340-5 (.441)
Vince Tobin, Arizona 1997-99 317-369-7 (.445)
MIKE HOLMGREN, Seattle 2004-06 323-397-0 (.449)
Vince Tobin, Arizona 1996-98 320-393-7 (.449)
Chuck Noll, Pittsburgh 1983-85 325-395-0 (.451)
Ray Malavasi, Los Angeles 1980-82 256-293-3 (.453)
John McKay, Tampa Bay 326-393-1 (.453)
10.Lovie Smith, Chicago 2004-05 327-393-0 (.454)
MIKE HOLMGREN, Seattle 2003-05 327-393-0 (.454)
Once again, this is impressive. Mike Holmgren’s LAST three 48 game spans are ALL among the TOP TEN( among 507 possibilities!!!)
Finally, allow me to tackle where Mike Holmgren stands all time as regards OPPONENTS SCHEDULE STRENGTH.
Since 1946 there are 54 head coaches who have been on the sidelines for 135 games or more.
Top TEN Since 1946, OPPONENTS SCHEDULE STRENGTH (135 + games, 54 qualifiers)
**12 game and 14 game seasons have been prorated to 16 games, as have the strike shortened 1982 and 1987 seasons
MIKE HOLMGREN, 1992-2007 1828-2010-2 (.47630)
Mike Ditka, 1982-1992 1997-99 1478-1597-9 (.47768)
Bud Grant, 1967-83, 1985 1645-1798-71 (.47977)
Joe Kuharich, 1952, 1954-8, 1964-8 784-851-67 (.48109)
Don Shula, 1963-1995 3216-3450-108 (.48234)
George Siefert, 1989-96 1999-2001 1274-1366-0 (.48258)
Wally Lemm, 1961-1970 820-873-62 (.48489)
Bill Cowher, 1992-2006 1753-1843-4 (48750)
Jon Gruden, 1998-2007 1170-1227-3 (.48812)
Steve Mariucci, 1997-2005 1018-1066-1 (.48849)
Yes, even if you include Holmgren's seven years with the Packers, Holmgren still ranks first all time (or at least since 1946) when it comes to having an easy schedule.
If we expand the study to include head coaches with over 100 games on the sidelines, we find things: (1)there will be an additional 21 coaches on the list, for a total of 75 and (2)Mike Holmgren would drop to 2fifth place all time.
The Top FIVE Since 1946, Opponents Schedule Strength (100 + games, 75 qualifiers)
**12 game and 14 game seasons have been prorated to 16 games, as have the strike shortened 1982 and 1987 seasons
Blanton Collier, 1963-1970 641-746-69 (.46394)
Leeman Bennett, 1977-82, 1985-86 804-885-5 (.47420)
John McKay, 1976-84 868-1000-8 (.47553)
Monte Clark, 1976, 1978-84 800-880-14 (.47582)
MIKE HOLMGREN, 1992-2007 1828-2010-2 (.47630)
Mike Holmgren has led a charmed existence since taking over the Green Bay Packers in 1992 and the easy living hasn't stopped since his move to the Pacific Northwest.
At this pace, I would recommend to Mike Holmgren that he stay put: don't retire. Another 2 to 3 years with these easy schedules will allow Holmgren to amass (a)at least 10 wins per season and (b)more playoff appearances.
More wins and more playoff spots will make it easier for Hall of Fame voters to truly consider Mike Holmgren as Canton material.
At the very least it won't hurt.
That's it for me. Remember to tune in to The Ministry of Sports on Monday nights on the Team 990. I will be the producer, Simon Tsalikis and George Caperis will provide the entertainment.
Hope you'll tune it and I hope you'll return to my blog next Monday.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Monday, February 11, 2008
Redskins Hire Jim Zorn: What's Up With That?
Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the team990.com
Today we’ll deal with Jim Zorn and the Washington Redskins.
Okay, where do we start with this?
Joe Gibbs retired a few days after the Skins lost a playoff game to Seattle. Not unexpected, since Gibbs was 67 years old and heading into the last season of the 5 year contract signed in January 2004. Gibbs was either quitting or signing an extension. No middle ground. He quit.
So a replacement was needed for the three time Super Bowl winning Gibbs.
Who did Redskins owner Daniel Snyder look to?
The assistant coaches on his staff were first.
Al Saunders. Nope. Too bad for Saunders, because when Dick Vermeil quit the Chiefs after the 2005 season, Saunders wasn’t considered for that job either. Even though Saunders was the top in house candidate.
Gregg Williams, the in house favourite on the Skins staff. The players wanted him, they made that very clear.
Snyder met with Williams THREE times over the course of one week. Each session lasted over FOUR hours.
Nope. Williams didn’t get the job either. Not only that, but Williams ended up getting fired as defensive coordinator, even though no new head coach had been hired.
Question for Daniel Snyder: If Williams was on your payroll for four years and you are a hands on owner, why did you (a)need all those hours to figure out whether Williams was head coaching material and (b)after figuring out he wasn’t, fire him as defensive coordinator.
Next up was Jim Caldwell of the Indianapolis Colts: Caldwell wasn’t interested because he figured (maybe incorrectly?) that Tony Dungy would quit after the 2008 season. It’s true that Caldwell will replace Dungy eventually (that much is official) but for Jim’s sake I hope Peyton Manning will still be in his prime when that happens.
Next up was Jim Mora Jr., defensive backs coach with Seattle, former head coach with Atlanta. What happened with Jim Jr.? The same as with Caldwell. Mora Jr decided to stay with Seattle where an agreement was made that he would replace current head coach Mike Holmgren after the 2008 season.
After Mora Jr. came Jim Fassel. The former Giants head coach met with Snyder a few times but was rejected. Not good for Fassel or his future prospects. Fassel has waited for another head coaching opportunity since he was fired by the Giants after going 4-12 in 2003. You’d figure that three playoff appearances in seven seasons in New York would be enough to at least get Fassel another chance somewhere. Anywhere. Apparently not.
Instead Fassel went to the Ravens as offensive coordinator for his good friend Brian Billick. That didn’t work out very well: Billick fired Fassel three weeks into the 2006 season, after which the Ravens went on a winning streak. That didn’t do much for Fassel’s value in the head coaching market.
Fassel was out. Snyder then met with former Lions and 49ers head coach Steve Mariucci. Nope. That didn’t work out either.
I thought that Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnulo, coming off a Super Bowl win, would get the job. One would figure the delay in hiring a head coach was because Snyder was not allowed to communicate with Steve Spagnulo until after the Super Bowl.
But Steve Spagnulo did not want the job. That was a waste of time for Daniel Snyder. I hope that Spagnulo knows what he is doing.
Remember Gregg Williams, who we just spoke about? After the 2005 season, in which the Redskins led the NFL in defense, Williams was on the short list for a couple of head coaching jobs, namely Saint Louis and Detroit. Williams was an extremely hot candidate. Williams refused these job offers, however, because he wanted to remain an assistant for a little while longer. Williams, like Spagnulo, also got a nice raise to stay put.
How’d that work out for Williams? Go back and read the first few paragraphs.
The lesson for Spagnulo should be clear: sometimes you only get one chance at being a head coach. And if you refuse that first chance, you may never get another. I know Gregg Williams was a head coach with the Bills 2001-03 so the comparison to Spagnulo is not entirely fair, but you get the idea.
Finally, we get to Jim Zorn. Anyone else notice that Synder interviewed Jim Caldwell, Jim Fassel and Jim Mora Jr., then Jim Zorn. What is with all the Jim’s on the list?
I’m not complaining of course. They share my name. That’s a good thing. I think.
Jim Zorn had never been an offensive coordinator. Quarterbacks coach, yes. But never a coordinator. Zorn had never enjoyed play calling responsibilities, until he was hired two weeks ago as Redskins offensive coordinator to replace the fired Al Saunders.
Then two weeks later Daniel Snyder decided that Jim Zorn wouldn’t be the new offensive coordinator after all, but, oh what the hell, Zorn would be the head coach instead.
Contract details: 5 years, average salary reported to be between 4 to 4.5 million per season.
Should never having been a coordinator be a disqualifying factor in choosing a head coach?
I am not sure. Recent history is quite vague on the subject.
Andy Reid was just a quarterbacks coach with Green Bay before Philly hired him in 1999. That worked out quite well by any reasonable standard.
Rod Marinelli was merely a defensive line coach with Tampa Bay before being tapped by Matt Millen and Detroit in 2006. Jury is still out on that one, thumbs pointing down.
Mike Tomlin was merely a defensive backs coach with Minnesota before being hired as head coach of the Steelers. Good rookie season, but we’ll wait a while to pass judgment, thumbs pointing up.
Point being: no guarantees exist when hiring a first time head coach who has never had play calling responsibilities on defense or offense.
Let me make a few points about the Washington Redskins and Daniel Snyder.
A. If Gregg Williams wasn’t going to replace Joe Gibbs, did Snyder need THREE four hour sessions to come to that conclusion?
B. If Jim Zorn was head coaching material, why did Snyder keep interviewing candidates after hiring Zorn to be offensive coordinator?
C. Couldn’t Snyder have seen Zorn’s head coaching potential earlier? If this potential existed, and hopefully for the Skins, it does, then Snyder should have seen it.
D. 5 year contract at 4 to 4.5 million dollars a year? For a first time head coach? Should this happen?
Let’s take a look at what other first time coaches earned on their original contracts.
Mike McCarthy 3 years at 2 million per year (since renegotiated)
Lovie Smith 4 years at 1.4 million per year (since renegotiated)
Mike Nolan 5 years at 2 million per year (since renegotiated)
Brad Childress 5 years at 2.2 million per year
Jack Del Rio 5 years at 1.3 million per year (since renegotiated)
Rod Marinelli 4 years at 2 million per year
True all these contracts were signed between 2004 and 2006, and inflation has to be taken into account for any contract signed in 2008.
But facts are facts. Jim Zorn will be earning almost TWICE as much as other recent first time coaches.
What kind of bargaining power did Jim Zorn have on Daniel Snyder? He was hired as an offensive coordinator and he was on no ones radar screen as potential head coaching material.
I am positive that Jim Zorn would have accepted an offer for half the amount he eventually put his name to.
I am also positive that Daniel Snyder signed off on the amount to overcompensate. It's as if Snyder was saying:
“Look Redskins fans, this guy is going to be such a good coach that we have to pay the going rate for him. I waited the entire month of January and part of February interviewing candidates one after another just to get to this one great coach. Damn right I will pay him twice as much as similar first time coaches”
Seems to me that Daniel Snyder is trying to convince himself, not the media and fans, that Zorn is the right man at the right time.
Good luck to Jim Zorn and the Skins. Joe Gibbs is a hard act to follow.
My hunch is that this will not work out very well. Aside from 2 playoff appearances with Joe Gibbs, it rarely has for the Redskins under Daniel Snyder.
But I am more willing to agree that Jim Zorn should be given an opportunity to show the NFL that he’s got the right stuff.
That’s it for me this week. I’ll be back next Monday with more NFL thoughts and analysis.
Jimmy Garoufalis
Today we’ll deal with Jim Zorn and the Washington Redskins.
Okay, where do we start with this?
Joe Gibbs retired a few days after the Skins lost a playoff game to Seattle. Not unexpected, since Gibbs was 67 years old and heading into the last season of the 5 year contract signed in January 2004. Gibbs was either quitting or signing an extension. No middle ground. He quit.
So a replacement was needed for the three time Super Bowl winning Gibbs.
Who did Redskins owner Daniel Snyder look to?
The assistant coaches on his staff were first.
Al Saunders. Nope. Too bad for Saunders, because when Dick Vermeil quit the Chiefs after the 2005 season, Saunders wasn’t considered for that job either. Even though Saunders was the top in house candidate.
Gregg Williams, the in house favourite on the Skins staff. The players wanted him, they made that very clear.
Snyder met with Williams THREE times over the course of one week. Each session lasted over FOUR hours.
Nope. Williams didn’t get the job either. Not only that, but Williams ended up getting fired as defensive coordinator, even though no new head coach had been hired.
Question for Daniel Snyder: If Williams was on your payroll for four years and you are a hands on owner, why did you (a)need all those hours to figure out whether Williams was head coaching material and (b)after figuring out he wasn’t, fire him as defensive coordinator.
Next up was Jim Caldwell of the Indianapolis Colts: Caldwell wasn’t interested because he figured (maybe incorrectly?) that Tony Dungy would quit after the 2008 season. It’s true that Caldwell will replace Dungy eventually (that much is official) but for Jim’s sake I hope Peyton Manning will still be in his prime when that happens.
Next up was Jim Mora Jr., defensive backs coach with Seattle, former head coach with Atlanta. What happened with Jim Jr.? The same as with Caldwell. Mora Jr decided to stay with Seattle where an agreement was made that he would replace current head coach Mike Holmgren after the 2008 season.
After Mora Jr. came Jim Fassel. The former Giants head coach met with Snyder a few times but was rejected. Not good for Fassel or his future prospects. Fassel has waited for another head coaching opportunity since he was fired by the Giants after going 4-12 in 2003. You’d figure that three playoff appearances in seven seasons in New York would be enough to at least get Fassel another chance somewhere. Anywhere. Apparently not.
Instead Fassel went to the Ravens as offensive coordinator for his good friend Brian Billick. That didn’t work out very well: Billick fired Fassel three weeks into the 2006 season, after which the Ravens went on a winning streak. That didn’t do much for Fassel’s value in the head coaching market.
Fassel was out. Snyder then met with former Lions and 49ers head coach Steve Mariucci. Nope. That didn’t work out either.
I thought that Giants defensive coordinator Steve Spagnulo, coming off a Super Bowl win, would get the job. One would figure the delay in hiring a head coach was because Snyder was not allowed to communicate with Steve Spagnulo until after the Super Bowl.
But Steve Spagnulo did not want the job. That was a waste of time for Daniel Snyder. I hope that Spagnulo knows what he is doing.
Remember Gregg Williams, who we just spoke about? After the 2005 season, in which the Redskins led the NFL in defense, Williams was on the short list for a couple of head coaching jobs, namely Saint Louis and Detroit. Williams was an extremely hot candidate. Williams refused these job offers, however, because he wanted to remain an assistant for a little while longer. Williams, like Spagnulo, also got a nice raise to stay put.
How’d that work out for Williams? Go back and read the first few paragraphs.
The lesson for Spagnulo should be clear: sometimes you only get one chance at being a head coach. And if you refuse that first chance, you may never get another. I know Gregg Williams was a head coach with the Bills 2001-03 so the comparison to Spagnulo is not entirely fair, but you get the idea.
Finally, we get to Jim Zorn. Anyone else notice that Synder interviewed Jim Caldwell, Jim Fassel and Jim Mora Jr., then Jim Zorn. What is with all the Jim’s on the list?
I’m not complaining of course. They share my name. That’s a good thing. I think.
Jim Zorn had never been an offensive coordinator. Quarterbacks coach, yes. But never a coordinator. Zorn had never enjoyed play calling responsibilities, until he was hired two weeks ago as Redskins offensive coordinator to replace the fired Al Saunders.
Then two weeks later Daniel Snyder decided that Jim Zorn wouldn’t be the new offensive coordinator after all, but, oh what the hell, Zorn would be the head coach instead.
Contract details: 5 years, average salary reported to be between 4 to 4.5 million per season.
Should never having been a coordinator be a disqualifying factor in choosing a head coach?
I am not sure. Recent history is quite vague on the subject.
Andy Reid was just a quarterbacks coach with Green Bay before Philly hired him in 1999. That worked out quite well by any reasonable standard.
Rod Marinelli was merely a defensive line coach with Tampa Bay before being tapped by Matt Millen and Detroit in 2006. Jury is still out on that one, thumbs pointing down.
Mike Tomlin was merely a defensive backs coach with Minnesota before being hired as head coach of the Steelers. Good rookie season, but we’ll wait a while to pass judgment, thumbs pointing up.
Point being: no guarantees exist when hiring a first time head coach who has never had play calling responsibilities on defense or offense.
Let me make a few points about the Washington Redskins and Daniel Snyder.
A. If Gregg Williams wasn’t going to replace Joe Gibbs, did Snyder need THREE four hour sessions to come to that conclusion?
B. If Jim Zorn was head coaching material, why did Snyder keep interviewing candidates after hiring Zorn to be offensive coordinator?
C. Couldn’t Snyder have seen Zorn’s head coaching potential earlier? If this potential existed, and hopefully for the Skins, it does, then Snyder should have seen it.
D. 5 year contract at 4 to 4.5 million dollars a year? For a first time head coach? Should this happen?
Let’s take a look at what other first time coaches earned on their original contracts.
Mike McCarthy 3 years at 2 million per year (since renegotiated)
Lovie Smith 4 years at 1.4 million per year (since renegotiated)
Mike Nolan 5 years at 2 million per year (since renegotiated)
Brad Childress 5 years at 2.2 million per year
Jack Del Rio 5 years at 1.3 million per year (since renegotiated)
Rod Marinelli 4 years at 2 million per year
True all these contracts were signed between 2004 and 2006, and inflation has to be taken into account for any contract signed in 2008.
But facts are facts. Jim Zorn will be earning almost TWICE as much as other recent first time coaches.
What kind of bargaining power did Jim Zorn have on Daniel Snyder? He was hired as an offensive coordinator and he was on no ones radar screen as potential head coaching material.
I am positive that Jim Zorn would have accepted an offer for half the amount he eventually put his name to.
I am also positive that Daniel Snyder signed off on the amount to overcompensate. It's as if Snyder was saying:
“Look Redskins fans, this guy is going to be such a good coach that we have to pay the going rate for him. I waited the entire month of January and part of February interviewing candidates one after another just to get to this one great coach. Damn right I will pay him twice as much as similar first time coaches”
Seems to me that Daniel Snyder is trying to convince himself, not the media and fans, that Zorn is the right man at the right time.
Good luck to Jim Zorn and the Skins. Joe Gibbs is a hard act to follow.
My hunch is that this will not work out very well. Aside from 2 playoff appearances with Joe Gibbs, it rarely has for the Redskins under Daniel Snyder.
But I am more willing to agree that Jim Zorn should be given an opportunity to show the NFL that he’s got the right stuff.
That’s it for me this week. I’ll be back next Monday with more NFL thoughts and analysis.
Jimmy Garoufalis
Monday, February 4, 2008
Super Bowl Review: I Told You So
Welcome Back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the team990.com Just because the season is over doesn't mean that my blog is finished: far from it. I'll be updating my blog every Monday.
Now let’s get down to business shall we?
I told you so. I told you so. I told you so.
I told you the Giants would be able to run the ball effectively. They did. 91 yards on 26 rushes
I told you the Giants would stop the Patriots running game. They did. 45 yards on 16 carries
I told you the Giants secondary would stop the Patriots passing game because they were superior to the Chargers and Jaguars. They did. Brady threw for 266 yards on 48 throws. An average of 5.54 yards per pass attempt.
I told you the Giants would “get” to Tom Brady. They did. 5 sacks for 37 yards in losses.
I told you the Giants would win. I was right. The Giants won and as a result, they are the Super Bowl champions.
Question: Did the Giants deserve to win or did the Patriots choke?
Answer: The Patriots DID NOT choke.
The Patriots were outplayed. It isn’t that hard to prove.
Look at the numbers.
The Giants RAN FOR TWICE as many yards as New England: 91-45
Eli Manning outplayed Tom Brady. In the all important yards per pass attempt stat, Manning SHREDDED Brady. Manning 255 yards on 34 throws. Average 7.5. Brady averaged 5.54 yards per pass attempt (266 yards on 48 throws) That is a difference of just under TWO YARDS per pass attempt.
The Giants only allowed 8 yards in sacks. The Patriots allowed 37
The Giants averaged 5.37 yards per play from scrimmage. The Patriots averaged 3.97
The Giants gained 1.4 yard more per play than the Patriots.
An argument being made in the media is that the Giants played keep-away from the Patriots, taking time off the clock to limit the amount of snaps the Patriots could have on offense.
Rubbish: The Patriots RAN more PLAYS from scrimmage than the Giants: 69 snaps to 63
In short, the Giants were by far the better team. The Patriots were outplayed
The Patriots were NOT outhustled and they were NOT overconfident, as some in the media are saying.
The Patriots expected a tough game and they got it. They simply weren’t the better team. Not by a long shot.
Eli Manning: No More Questions
Does anyone out there still have questions about whether Eli Manning is a pro quarterback?
Does anyone out there still feel that Eli Manning has something to prove?
I didn’t think so.
Eli made history in the Super Bowl. He became the ONLY quarterback in NFL history to lead his team to THREE CONSECUTIVE game winning/come from behind 4th quarter drives in the PLAYOFFS. First it was the Cowboys who felt the wrath. Then the Packers. In the Green Bay game, Eli actually led the game winning drive THREE different times but thanks to Lawrence Tynes he kept having to repeat his excellence.
And now this.
Trailing 14-10 on his own 17 yard line with 2:39 remaining and all three timeouts remaining, who knows what Peyton’s little brother was thinking?
I’ll tell you what I was thinking. Because of the clock and the timeouts, Eli would come out throwing. Why? Because if the 2 minute warning hits and it is 4th and long, the Giants might consider punting the football and then use their timeouts on defense.
Whereas a running play might bring the clock to under two minutes before a potential 4th down arises. In that case the options become murkier and less enticing.
No, it was obvious that Coughlin was going to come out throwing so that incompletions would stop the clock and hand him more options.
When the drive started I was thinking Joe Montana versus the Bengals. I was thinking Jim Kelly versus the Giants, I was thinking Brett Favre versus the Broncos and I was thinking Steve McNair versus the Rams.
Each of these quarterbacks was handed one final opportunity late in the game to get his team down the field. Montana of course was the only winner in the group, going 91 yards for the winning touchdown. Kelly say Scott Norwood miss a 46 yard field goal, Favre threw incomplete on 4th down at the Broncos 26 yard line and Steve McNair saw Kevin Dyson get tacked a half yard shy of the end zone.
Why didn’t I mention Tom Brady’s two game winning drives against the Rams and Panthers? Because those drives began with the score tied and less than 90 seconds to play, putting less pressure on the quarterback, since the worst thing that could have happened to the Patriots was overtime (not counting a potential turnover)
How would Eli fit in to the historical equation?
Answer: Eli would fit in quite nicely. Quite nicely indeed. Joe Montana level nicely.
Speaking of Steve McNair, how many viewers thought of McNair when Eli avoided the sack spun around, fled the pocket and found David Tyree for the circus catch on 3rd and 5? I know I was. Eli’s escape was eerily reminiscent of McNair’s escape against the Rams in the final 20 seconds of that Super Bowl. Unfortunately for McNair, his Super Bowl ended in heartache on the very next play when Kevin Dyson couldn't stretch far enough to get the ball in the end zone as time expired.
Eli’s escape was the PLAY OF THE GAME
Two thoughts on the PLAY OF THE GAME
(1)It was sweet justice for the Giants. Remember last season when the Giants let Vince Young flee the pocket because they thought the officials would blow the play dead? Instead the officials did nothing, Young escaped, ran for the first down and eventually drove the Titans down the field for the winning points.
This time the Giants were the beneficiaries because of the referee’s unwillingness to blow the play dead unless the quarterback is on the ground. Thank god for that if you’re a Giants fan.
(2)I thought the officials upstairs would stop the game to look at Tyree’s catch. It would have been the appropriate decision.
I agree. It was a catch. However, in these types of situations I feel the officials should take every precaution necessary and look at the video to be absolutely certain.
Back to Eli. How did Eli do on the final drive? 5 of 9 for 77 yards and the winning touchdown pass, of course, to the previously invisible Plaxico Burress
How did Eli do in the entire fourth quarter: 9 of 14 for 152 yards. With NO interceptions
As mentioned, Eli Manning’s game winning drive was eerily reminiscent of Joe Montana’s versus the Bengals in January 1989.
Ironically enough, the Montana 49ers of 1988 are the only other 10-6 team to win the Super Bowl.
Also ironically, the Eli Giants of 2007 are the only other 10-6 team to reach the Super Bowl.
If this is a pattern then two things are clear:
(1)Forget about the bye week: the last 3 Super Bowl Champions have all played in the wild card round: Steelers, Colts and now the Giants
(2)Finish 10-6: Teams that finish 10-6 are 2-0 in the Super Bowl. Not much of a pattern but hey, it’s something.
What About The Patriots Ability To Hold A Fourth Quarter Lead?
Since Week 16 of the 2004 season, the Patriots are 48-2, including playoffs, when holding a lead at ANYTIME during the fourth quarter
Two losses when leading at anytime in the fourth quarter. ONLY TWO
Who have the Patriots lost to (two)? To the Colts in the AFC Championship Game and of course to the Giants yesterday.
What do the Colts and Giants have in common? A quarterback with the same last name
Patriots Lose Chance At Historical Numbers
Forget about the undefeated record. That hurts but what also hurts is not tying Bradshaw, Montana and Noll.
A Super Bowl win over the Giants would have tied Tom Brady with Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana with four championships.
A Super Bowl win over the Giants would have tied Bill Belichick with Chuck Noll for the most ever, also with four.
Oh well, wait until next year.
On to my notes from the game.
(A)What an amazing opening drive by the Giants. Not only did they put points on the board but they took 10 minutes and 8 seconds off the clock. Eli completed three third down passes to keep the drive alive.
(B)Great reply by Brady and the boys. Five minutes off the clock. Officials made the right call on Antonio Pierce in the end zone. It was pass interference. No doubt.
(C)What an amazing first quarter: only one drive per team, great clock management, great execution on both sides, especially on third downs.
Quarters 2 and 3 were not so exciting. Interesting yes. Exciting no.
After the Patriots took a 7-3 lead on the first play of the 2nd quarter, they went three and out on their next two possessions.
This was key. It allowed (a)the Giants defense a chance to rest and (b)it gave the Giants the confidence it needed to continue plugging away.
THIRD QUARTER: What Should Have Been The Turning Point
The biggest play of the game should have been the too many men on the field penalty against the Giants with 11 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter.
Rewind: Pats still lead 7-3, 4th and 2 from the Giants 44 yard line. Punt in the air, Giants get the ball back at their 20.
But wait..after the television timeout, Bill Belichick throws his red challenge flag to the ground. Apparently he saw 12 men on the field when the punt was in the air.
Review takes place and by golly...Belichick is right. Patriots get 5 yards and a first down at the Giants 39 yard line.
Admit it. You expected the Patriots to take the ball and score a touchdown. C’mon, my hand is raised. I fully expect the Patriots to take a 14-3 lead followed by a Giants possession where Eli would throw a pick and the game would for all intents and purposes, be over.
But it didn’t happen. The Giants defense buckled down and created a 4th and 13 for the Pats on the 31 yard line.
This is where the most interesting play call occurred. From the 31 yard line most people expected Stephen Gostkowski to attempt a 49 yard field goal. Especially when the yardage needed for the first down is 13.
But Belichick went for it. He made the right decision.
(A)A 49 yard field goal attempt is not a gimme. Especially on grass
(B)A missed kick would give the Giants the ball at their own 39 yard line. Too risky
(C)A punt from the 31 would, in all likelihood, have landed in the end zone for a touchback, giving the Pats a gain of 11 yards in terms of field position.
(D)Gambling and failing would equal giving the Giants the ball at the 31 or worse, depending on whether the Pats gained any yards on the play.
Given all these options, what else was Belichick supposed to do? Belichick chose the only reasonable option available to him.
He gambled and lost. Giants took over from their 31 instead of their 39 (missed field goal option) or their 20 (touchback option)
There you have it: my thoughts on the Super Bowl.
Congratulations to the New York Giants, Super Bowl 42 champions.
Starting tonight and continuing every Monday night, I'll be producing the Ministry of Sports, hosted by Simon Tsalikis and George Caperis, on the Team 990. the program starts midnights and continues until 2:00 a.m.
Hope you'll listen and I hope you enjoyed reading my blog.
Now let’s get down to business shall we?
I told you so. I told you so. I told you so.
I told you the Giants would be able to run the ball effectively. They did. 91 yards on 26 rushes
I told you the Giants would stop the Patriots running game. They did. 45 yards on 16 carries
I told you the Giants secondary would stop the Patriots passing game because they were superior to the Chargers and Jaguars. They did. Brady threw for 266 yards on 48 throws. An average of 5.54 yards per pass attempt.
I told you the Giants would “get” to Tom Brady. They did. 5 sacks for 37 yards in losses.
I told you the Giants would win. I was right. The Giants won and as a result, they are the Super Bowl champions.
Question: Did the Giants deserve to win or did the Patriots choke?
Answer: The Patriots DID NOT choke.
The Patriots were outplayed. It isn’t that hard to prove.
Look at the numbers.
The Giants RAN FOR TWICE as many yards as New England: 91-45
Eli Manning outplayed Tom Brady. In the all important yards per pass attempt stat, Manning SHREDDED Brady. Manning 255 yards on 34 throws. Average 7.5. Brady averaged 5.54 yards per pass attempt (266 yards on 48 throws) That is a difference of just under TWO YARDS per pass attempt.
The Giants only allowed 8 yards in sacks. The Patriots allowed 37
The Giants averaged 5.37 yards per play from scrimmage. The Patriots averaged 3.97
The Giants gained 1.4 yard more per play than the Patriots.
An argument being made in the media is that the Giants played keep-away from the Patriots, taking time off the clock to limit the amount of snaps the Patriots could have on offense.
Rubbish: The Patriots RAN more PLAYS from scrimmage than the Giants: 69 snaps to 63
In short, the Giants were by far the better team. The Patriots were outplayed
The Patriots were NOT outhustled and they were NOT overconfident, as some in the media are saying.
The Patriots expected a tough game and they got it. They simply weren’t the better team. Not by a long shot.
Eli Manning: No More Questions
Does anyone out there still have questions about whether Eli Manning is a pro quarterback?
Does anyone out there still feel that Eli Manning has something to prove?
I didn’t think so.
Eli made history in the Super Bowl. He became the ONLY quarterback in NFL history to lead his team to THREE CONSECUTIVE game winning/come from behind 4th quarter drives in the PLAYOFFS. First it was the Cowboys who felt the wrath. Then the Packers. In the Green Bay game, Eli actually led the game winning drive THREE different times but thanks to Lawrence Tynes he kept having to repeat his excellence.
And now this.
Trailing 14-10 on his own 17 yard line with 2:39 remaining and all three timeouts remaining, who knows what Peyton’s little brother was thinking?
I’ll tell you what I was thinking. Because of the clock and the timeouts, Eli would come out throwing. Why? Because if the 2 minute warning hits and it is 4th and long, the Giants might consider punting the football and then use their timeouts on defense.
Whereas a running play might bring the clock to under two minutes before a potential 4th down arises. In that case the options become murkier and less enticing.
No, it was obvious that Coughlin was going to come out throwing so that incompletions would stop the clock and hand him more options.
When the drive started I was thinking Joe Montana versus the Bengals. I was thinking Jim Kelly versus the Giants, I was thinking Brett Favre versus the Broncos and I was thinking Steve McNair versus the Rams.
Each of these quarterbacks was handed one final opportunity late in the game to get his team down the field. Montana of course was the only winner in the group, going 91 yards for the winning touchdown. Kelly say Scott Norwood miss a 46 yard field goal, Favre threw incomplete on 4th down at the Broncos 26 yard line and Steve McNair saw Kevin Dyson get tacked a half yard shy of the end zone.
Why didn’t I mention Tom Brady’s two game winning drives against the Rams and Panthers? Because those drives began with the score tied and less than 90 seconds to play, putting less pressure on the quarterback, since the worst thing that could have happened to the Patriots was overtime (not counting a potential turnover)
How would Eli fit in to the historical equation?
Answer: Eli would fit in quite nicely. Quite nicely indeed. Joe Montana level nicely.
Speaking of Steve McNair, how many viewers thought of McNair when Eli avoided the sack spun around, fled the pocket and found David Tyree for the circus catch on 3rd and 5? I know I was. Eli’s escape was eerily reminiscent of McNair’s escape against the Rams in the final 20 seconds of that Super Bowl. Unfortunately for McNair, his Super Bowl ended in heartache on the very next play when Kevin Dyson couldn't stretch far enough to get the ball in the end zone as time expired.
Eli’s escape was the PLAY OF THE GAME
Two thoughts on the PLAY OF THE GAME
(1)It was sweet justice for the Giants. Remember last season when the Giants let Vince Young flee the pocket because they thought the officials would blow the play dead? Instead the officials did nothing, Young escaped, ran for the first down and eventually drove the Titans down the field for the winning points.
This time the Giants were the beneficiaries because of the referee’s unwillingness to blow the play dead unless the quarterback is on the ground. Thank god for that if you’re a Giants fan.
(2)I thought the officials upstairs would stop the game to look at Tyree’s catch. It would have been the appropriate decision.
I agree. It was a catch. However, in these types of situations I feel the officials should take every precaution necessary and look at the video to be absolutely certain.
Back to Eli. How did Eli do on the final drive? 5 of 9 for 77 yards and the winning touchdown pass, of course, to the previously invisible Plaxico Burress
How did Eli do in the entire fourth quarter: 9 of 14 for 152 yards. With NO interceptions
As mentioned, Eli Manning’s game winning drive was eerily reminiscent of Joe Montana’s versus the Bengals in January 1989.
Ironically enough, the Montana 49ers of 1988 are the only other 10-6 team to win the Super Bowl.
Also ironically, the Eli Giants of 2007 are the only other 10-6 team to reach the Super Bowl.
If this is a pattern then two things are clear:
(1)Forget about the bye week: the last 3 Super Bowl Champions have all played in the wild card round: Steelers, Colts and now the Giants
(2)Finish 10-6: Teams that finish 10-6 are 2-0 in the Super Bowl. Not much of a pattern but hey, it’s something.
What About The Patriots Ability To Hold A Fourth Quarter Lead?
Since Week 16 of the 2004 season, the Patriots are 48-2, including playoffs, when holding a lead at ANYTIME during the fourth quarter
Two losses when leading at anytime in the fourth quarter. ONLY TWO
Who have the Patriots lost to (two)? To the Colts in the AFC Championship Game and of course to the Giants yesterday.
What do the Colts and Giants have in common? A quarterback with the same last name
Patriots Lose Chance At Historical Numbers
Forget about the undefeated record. That hurts but what also hurts is not tying Bradshaw, Montana and Noll.
A Super Bowl win over the Giants would have tied Tom Brady with Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana with four championships.
A Super Bowl win over the Giants would have tied Bill Belichick with Chuck Noll for the most ever, also with four.
Oh well, wait until next year.
On to my notes from the game.
(A)What an amazing opening drive by the Giants. Not only did they put points on the board but they took 10 minutes and 8 seconds off the clock. Eli completed three third down passes to keep the drive alive.
(B)Great reply by Brady and the boys. Five minutes off the clock. Officials made the right call on Antonio Pierce in the end zone. It was pass interference. No doubt.
(C)What an amazing first quarter: only one drive per team, great clock management, great execution on both sides, especially on third downs.
Quarters 2 and 3 were not so exciting. Interesting yes. Exciting no.
After the Patriots took a 7-3 lead on the first play of the 2nd quarter, they went three and out on their next two possessions.
This was key. It allowed (a)the Giants defense a chance to rest and (b)it gave the Giants the confidence it needed to continue plugging away.
THIRD QUARTER: What Should Have Been The Turning Point
The biggest play of the game should have been the too many men on the field penalty against the Giants with 11 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter.
Rewind: Pats still lead 7-3, 4th and 2 from the Giants 44 yard line. Punt in the air, Giants get the ball back at their 20.
But wait..after the television timeout, Bill Belichick throws his red challenge flag to the ground. Apparently he saw 12 men on the field when the punt was in the air.
Review takes place and by golly...Belichick is right. Patriots get 5 yards and a first down at the Giants 39 yard line.
Admit it. You expected the Patriots to take the ball and score a touchdown. C’mon, my hand is raised. I fully expect the Patriots to take a 14-3 lead followed by a Giants possession where Eli would throw a pick and the game would for all intents and purposes, be over.
But it didn’t happen. The Giants defense buckled down and created a 4th and 13 for the Pats on the 31 yard line.
This is where the most interesting play call occurred. From the 31 yard line most people expected Stephen Gostkowski to attempt a 49 yard field goal. Especially when the yardage needed for the first down is 13.
But Belichick went for it. He made the right decision.
(A)A 49 yard field goal attempt is not a gimme. Especially on grass
(B)A missed kick would give the Giants the ball at their own 39 yard line. Too risky
(C)A punt from the 31 would, in all likelihood, have landed in the end zone for a touchback, giving the Pats a gain of 11 yards in terms of field position.
(D)Gambling and failing would equal giving the Giants the ball at the 31 or worse, depending on whether the Pats gained any yards on the play.
Given all these options, what else was Belichick supposed to do? Belichick chose the only reasonable option available to him.
He gambled and lost. Giants took over from their 31 instead of their 39 (missed field goal option) or their 20 (touchback option)
There you have it: my thoughts on the Super Bowl.
Congratulations to the New York Giants, Super Bowl 42 champions.
Starting tonight and continuing every Monday night, I'll be producing the Ministry of Sports, hosted by Simon Tsalikis and George Caperis, on the Team 990. the program starts midnights and continues until 2:00 a.m.
Hope you'll listen and I hope you enjoyed reading my blog.
Saturday, February 2, 2008
Patriots versus Giants Super Bowl Preview
Welcome to the Super Bowl Preview Edition of Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the Team990.com
The Team 990 will be broadcasting the Super Bowl of course, so don’t forget to dial your radios to the proper channel.
Tom Coughlin: Is He A Better Playoff Coach Than Tony Dungy?
If the Giants beat the Pats, then hell yes Coughlin is better than Dungy.
Huh? Can you repeat that?
Okay, I’ll repeat it. A Super Bowl win by the beleaguered Tom Coughlin will catapult him above the level of Tony Dungy as regards playoff success.
Both Dungy and Coughlin have coached twelve full seasons in the NFL. Coughlin 8 years in Jacksonville, 4 in New York, Dungy 6 in both Tampa and Indianapolis.
On the surface it would be ridiculous to even compare the two coaches.
Dungy’s regular season record is 127-65-0 for a winning percentage of .661
Coughlin’s regular season record is 103-89-0 for a winning percentage of .536
Simple math: Dungy averages TWO more wins per season than Coughlin, which is a VERY significant difference over a mere 16 game span.
However....however, we have to look at the big picture here. Playoffs. One game elimination. Do or die. You know all the cliches.
In their 12 years as head coaches, Tony Dungy has made the playoffs ten times, Coughlin seven times.
Yet...yet Dungy has a 9-9 record, merely .500. Coughlin on the other hand, is at 7-6, over .500
If the Giants beat the Patriots, Coughlin would have a 8-6 record, two games over .500 and with the same amount of Super Bowl wins as Dungy. Dungy and Coughlin already have the same amount of Final Four appearances: three each.
A Giants Super Bowl win would also accomplish a few other things, aside from placing Coughlin ahead of Tony Dungy as regards playoff resume.
How would Coughlin’s Super Bowl win compare with Dungy’s?
Well, Dungy had no bye week and two of the three AFC playoff wins occurred at home (vs KC and the Patriots) The Giants have had no home games in the playoffs.
What else do we need to know about a Giants Super Bowl win?
(1)It would mean that the Giants would join the Steelers and ‘‘80 Raiders, ‘97 Broncos, ‘00 Ravens, ‘05 Steelers and the 06 Colts as Super Bowl winners who had to win four playoff games.
The Giants would be the second team to win four road games on the road to a Super Bowl championship, after the 2005 Steelers.
(2)It would be the third consecutive season where a team with no bye week ended up winning the Super Bowl.
If that were to happen, you better believe that the media storyline throughout the 2008 season will be as follows: forget home field advantage and forget about getting a bye week. These things are overrated.
(3)In the 16 game era, there has only been one 10-6 team that has won the Super Bowl: the 49ers of 1988.
Strange...but even though 83 teams have entered the playoffs with a 10-6 record since 1978, only 2 of them, just TWO out of 83, have reached the Super Bowl. The 49ers of 1988 and the Giants this season.
Since the NFL went to the 12 team playoff format in 1990, 54 teams have entered the post season with a 10-6 record, with the Giants this season being the only team that ended up reaching the Super Bowl
(4)A Giants win would mean that the Patriots would have lost to a Manning two years in a row.
What about the Patriots? If they won, what would it mean?
(1)Currently, Bill Belichick has a 15-3 career playoff record. Another win would tie Belichick with Chuck Noll for 4th place on the all time list.
Tom Landry 20
Don Shula 19
Joe Gibbs 17
Chuck Noll 16
x-Bill Belichick 16
(2)Currently Bill Belichick has three Super Bowl wins, tied for 2nd place with Joe Gibbs and Bill Walsh. In first place is Chuck Noll with four. If the Patriots beat the Giants, Belichick would be tied with Noll for first place.
(3)Tom Brady has a 14-2 record as a starting quarterback in the playoffs. Who is at the top of the list in terms of playoff wins by a starting quarterback?
Joe Montana 16-7
Terry Bradshaw 14-5
John Elway 14-8
Tom Brady 14-2
You can see where Brady will rank with another playoff win.
(4)The big one of course. Another Super Bowl win for Brady would tie him with and Joe MontanaTerry Bradshaw with four.
Enough with the numbers. Let’s take a look at my Super Bowl prediction.
The Giants will win 27-20
Why?
(A)The Giants will be able to run the ball, therefore they’ll take time off the clock, limiting the amount of possessions that the high powered Patriots will have.
(B)Eli Manning will only turn the ball over once, making it the only turnover of his impressive playoff run.
(C)The Giants defensive front will “get” to Tom Brady. By “get” I do not mean sacks, although there will be four of those: I am referring to “pressures” where a quarterback gets hit and hit often. Brady’s high ankle sprain will enter the equation.
(D)The Giants secondary will limit the effectiveness of Randy Moss. I consider the Giants secondary to be superior to that of the Chargers, so look for lots of effective bump and run coverage on Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth.
(E)Call it a feeling. A gut instinct. Since the Patriots reached 10-0, they have struggled to put teams away on a regular basis. Three of their last 8 wins have required 4th quarter comebacks (Eagles, Ravens and Giants), or they were kept close by a 3-13 Jets team, and both their playoff wins have been very close (tied at the half versus Jacksonville and up by only 2 early in the 4th against the depleted Chargers.
The Patriots won despite being in numerous close games down the stretch.
My gut feeling tells me that Super Bowl Sunday will be the day that every break the Patriots have recieved thus far will go the Giants.
I might end up being wrong. I don’t think so.
Giants win 27-20
I'll be back on Monday with my Super Bowl analysis.
The Team 990 will be broadcasting the Super Bowl of course, so don’t forget to dial your radios to the proper channel.
Tom Coughlin: Is He A Better Playoff Coach Than Tony Dungy?
If the Giants beat the Pats, then hell yes Coughlin is better than Dungy.
Huh? Can you repeat that?
Okay, I’ll repeat it. A Super Bowl win by the beleaguered Tom Coughlin will catapult him above the level of Tony Dungy as regards playoff success.
Both Dungy and Coughlin have coached twelve full seasons in the NFL. Coughlin 8 years in Jacksonville, 4 in New York, Dungy 6 in both Tampa and Indianapolis.
On the surface it would be ridiculous to even compare the two coaches.
Dungy’s regular season record is 127-65-0 for a winning percentage of .661
Coughlin’s regular season record is 103-89-0 for a winning percentage of .536
Simple math: Dungy averages TWO more wins per season than Coughlin, which is a VERY significant difference over a mere 16 game span.
However....however, we have to look at the big picture here. Playoffs. One game elimination. Do or die. You know all the cliches.
In their 12 years as head coaches, Tony Dungy has made the playoffs ten times, Coughlin seven times.
Yet...yet Dungy has a 9-9 record, merely .500. Coughlin on the other hand, is at 7-6, over .500
If the Giants beat the Patriots, Coughlin would have a 8-6 record, two games over .500 and with the same amount of Super Bowl wins as Dungy. Dungy and Coughlin already have the same amount of Final Four appearances: three each.
A Giants Super Bowl win would also accomplish a few other things, aside from placing Coughlin ahead of Tony Dungy as regards playoff resume.
How would Coughlin’s Super Bowl win compare with Dungy’s?
Well, Dungy had no bye week and two of the three AFC playoff wins occurred at home (vs KC and the Patriots) The Giants have had no home games in the playoffs.
What else do we need to know about a Giants Super Bowl win?
(1)It would mean that the Giants would join the Steelers and ‘‘80 Raiders, ‘97 Broncos, ‘00 Ravens, ‘05 Steelers and the 06 Colts as Super Bowl winners who had to win four playoff games.
The Giants would be the second team to win four road games on the road to a Super Bowl championship, after the 2005 Steelers.
(2)It would be the third consecutive season where a team with no bye week ended up winning the Super Bowl.
If that were to happen, you better believe that the media storyline throughout the 2008 season will be as follows: forget home field advantage and forget about getting a bye week. These things are overrated.
(3)In the 16 game era, there has only been one 10-6 team that has won the Super Bowl: the 49ers of 1988.
Strange...but even though 83 teams have entered the playoffs with a 10-6 record since 1978, only 2 of them, just TWO out of 83, have reached the Super Bowl. The 49ers of 1988 and the Giants this season.
Since the NFL went to the 12 team playoff format in 1990, 54 teams have entered the post season with a 10-6 record, with the Giants this season being the only team that ended up reaching the Super Bowl
(4)A Giants win would mean that the Patriots would have lost to a Manning two years in a row.
What about the Patriots? If they won, what would it mean?
(1)Currently, Bill Belichick has a 15-3 career playoff record. Another win would tie Belichick with Chuck Noll for 4th place on the all time list.
Tom Landry 20
Don Shula 19
Joe Gibbs 17
Chuck Noll 16
x-Bill Belichick 16
(2)Currently Bill Belichick has three Super Bowl wins, tied for 2nd place with Joe Gibbs and Bill Walsh. In first place is Chuck Noll with four. If the Patriots beat the Giants, Belichick would be tied with Noll for first place.
(3)Tom Brady has a 14-2 record as a starting quarterback in the playoffs. Who is at the top of the list in terms of playoff wins by a starting quarterback?
Joe Montana 16-7
Terry Bradshaw 14-5
John Elway 14-8
Tom Brady 14-2
You can see where Brady will rank with another playoff win.
(4)The big one of course. Another Super Bowl win for Brady would tie him with and Joe MontanaTerry Bradshaw with four.
Enough with the numbers. Let’s take a look at my Super Bowl prediction.
The Giants will win 27-20
Why?
(A)The Giants will be able to run the ball, therefore they’ll take time off the clock, limiting the amount of possessions that the high powered Patriots will have.
(B)Eli Manning will only turn the ball over once, making it the only turnover of his impressive playoff run.
(C)The Giants defensive front will “get” to Tom Brady. By “get” I do not mean sacks, although there will be four of those: I am referring to “pressures” where a quarterback gets hit and hit often. Brady’s high ankle sprain will enter the equation.
(D)The Giants secondary will limit the effectiveness of Randy Moss. I consider the Giants secondary to be superior to that of the Chargers, so look for lots of effective bump and run coverage on Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth.
(E)Call it a feeling. A gut instinct. Since the Patriots reached 10-0, they have struggled to put teams away on a regular basis. Three of their last 8 wins have required 4th quarter comebacks (Eagles, Ravens and Giants), or they were kept close by a 3-13 Jets team, and both their playoff wins have been very close (tied at the half versus Jacksonville and up by only 2 early in the 4th against the depleted Chargers.
The Patriots won despite being in numerous close games down the stretch.
My gut feeling tells me that Super Bowl Sunday will be the day that every break the Patriots have recieved thus far will go the Giants.
I might end up being wrong. I don’t think so.
Giants win 27-20
I'll be back on Monday with my Super Bowl analysis.
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