Predictions For Week 13 In The NFL

Predictions For Week 13 In The NFL

Last week I was a mediocre 8-7 (forgot to even predict the Titans game), making me 71-42 for the season.

Here is an abbreviated predictions post for Week 13, written just a few minutes before the Packers take the field against the ‘Boys.

Here we go.

Vikings over Lions: This is the biggest game of the week in the NFC. This game will dictate how the number 2 wild card spot in the NFC will play out. A win by the Lions will likely eliminate the Vikings. A combination of the Lions and Giants winning will eliminate the Bears as well. If the Lions and Giants both lose, then there is a possibility that the Giants will be the first wild card #1 at 7-5, with as many as 7 teams tied for the second wild card at 6-6.

Bears over Giants: And that is exactly what will happen. Bears and Vikes will move to 6-6, Lions drop to 6-6 and the Giants end up at 7-5.

Seattle over Philadelphia: The Seahawks will move one step closer to making the playoffs for the 5^th straight season. The Eagles will fall to 5-7 seven days after almost beating the mighty Patriots.

Falcons over Rams: They both have been eliminated so in a meaningless game, I’ll go with the Falcons.

Houston over Tennessee: Both teams need to win badly, the Texans especially. The Titans have lost three straight after starting 6-2.

Browns over Cardinals: A Cards loss and a Seahawk win will place the Cards in a position where the only route to the playoffs is as the second wild card. Browns will win again which will (a)guarantee that Romeo doesn’t get fired and (b)Brady Quinn keeps holding a clipboard.

Redskins over the Bills: The Skins will need all their emotional strength to get past the next few days. A win here gets them to 6-6. The Bills need this game badly as well. A loss and they are out. I’ll go with the Skins and emotion.

Cowboys over Packers: Green Bay’s inability to run the ball often will hurt them against an elite team like Dallas.

Carolina over San Francisco: I cannot believe that the Panthers will lose a sixth straight game.

Jaguars over Colts: A Jags win will place Jacksonville in the AFC South lead, plus they’ll be the number 2 seed.

Chargers over Chiefs: The Chiefs must win every game the rest of the way with a first year starter at both the running back (Kolby Smith) and quarterback position (Brodie Croyle) Way too much to ask.

Jets over Dolphins: I feel bad for Cam Cameron. Last year he was the offensive coordinator for a 14-2 Chargers team. Had Marty Shottenheimer been fired immediately after the Patriot playoff loss, Cameron would have been the head coach of a 14-2 team. Instead Cameron jumped to the Sunshine State immediately: now he is the coach of an 0-11 team.

Patriots over Ravens: Lock of the week

In other games: Broncos over Raiders, Bucs over Saints, Steelers over Bengals

That’s it for me. I’ll be back with my Week 13 thoughts on Tuesday afternoon.

Week 12 In The NFL

Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the team990.com

This week we’ll be looking at the following

-how good are the Patriots (very)
-how close Brett Favre is to breaking another record (very)
-did Jack Del Rio gamble again on 4th down (of course)
-did Jason Campbell fail in the 4th quarter again (most definitely)
-the Bears and Rex
-the Chiefs wasting timeouts

and an assortment of other subjects that I hope you find entertaining and worthwhile.

Without further delay, here I go again.

An Update On Brett Favre: When Will He Break Dan Marino’s Yardage Record?

The only record left for Brett Favre to break is most passing yards by a quarterback, held by none other than Dan Marino.

Dan Marino 61,361
Brett Favre 60,856

Yards needed to break record: 506

Favre is averaging 306 yards passing per game this season.

Using that number as a barometer, Brett Favre will break Marino’s record on Sunday, December 9th, against the Oakland Raiders, in the 3rd quarter, to be exact.

How Good Are The New England Patriots? Part 1 In A Never Ending Story

For those football fans who think that New England’s 11-0 record is a product of an easy schedule, please think again.

Since the NFL went to a 16 game schedule in 1978, 21 teams have finished with either a 14-2 or 15-1 record.

Assuming that the Patriots do not lose 3 of their last 5 games, they will be the 22nd club to join this illustrious group.

Which of these 14-2 or 15-1 teams had the toughest schedule?

Let’s look at the top 5
1.Washington 1991 127-113-0 (.529)
2.NEW ENGLAND 2007 58-52-0 (.527)
3.NEW ENGLAND 2004 124-116-0 (.517)
4.Pittsburgh 2004 123-117-0 (.513)
5.(TIE)Washington 1983 120-116-4 (.508)
5.(TIE)NEW ENGLAND 2003 122-118-0 (.508)

As you can see, the Patriots, after 11 games, have the second toughest schedule among the 22 teams that finished with either a 14-2 or 15-1 record. The Patriots will definitely finish with 14 or 15 wins, maybe even...let’s not jinx them.

The Patriots are not feasting on soft opposition. That is the moral of this story.

How Good Are The New England Patriots? Part 2 In A Never Ending Story

When the Patriots took the lead against the Eagles in the 4th quarter, it was time for me to close my TV. The game was over.

Since Tom Brady took over three games into the 2001 season, the Patriots are 81-1 in the regular season when they have the lead at any time during the 4th quarter.

During that same time period,, the Patriots have won 16 games when they have been trailing at any time during the 4th quarter.

Sixteen comeback victories versus one blown fourth quarter lead since 2001. Impressive.

Schedule Strength, Lane Kiffin and Brian Billick

Which two teams have had the easiest schedule so far in 2007?

The results may surprise you.

The Oakland Raiders are 3-8. Since their Super Bowl appearance in January 2003, their record has been progressing downward: 4-12, 5-11, 4-12 and 2-14. Therefore their 3-8 record this year is hardly surprising.

What is surprising is the following: after 11 weeks the Raiders have had the league’s easiest schedule.

Yes it is true. Oakland’s opponents have a combined record of 53-68. If you adjust the record to include only the games played against anyone but Oakland, the record becomes 45-65, the easiest schedule in the NFL.

Baltimore is 4-7. Not good. You’d think that their 4-7 record is a result of a tough schedule.

You’d be wrong. Baltimore has the second easiest schedule in the NFL so far: opponents are currently 46-64.

The Detroit Lions Lost To The Packers ....And Guess Who Benefited?

In my predictions post last Wednesday, I wrote about how all eyes in the NFC were on the Detroit Lions. Why? Because the Lions were in sole possession of the final wild card spot at 6-4. If the Lions could beat the Packers on Thanksgiving, they would put all the pressure on other teams to catch them.

The Lions lost to the Packers and they fell to 6-5.

This opened the door to the three teams at 5-5: the Redskins, Cardinals and Eagles.

So what happened?

The Redskins lost to Tampa Bay
The Cardinals lost to San Francisco
The Eagles lost to New England

Oh yes I almost forgot. Quite a few teams benefited from the Lions loss, just not the ones directly behind them.

The Vikings beat the Giants. The Vikings are now 5-6
The Saints beat the Panthers. The Saints are now 5-6
The Bears beat the Broncos. Chicago is now 5-6

So how does the NFC wild card picture stack up right now.

Wild Card 1: New York Giants 7-4
Wild Card 2: Detroit Lions 6-5
Redskins, Eagles, Cardinals, Vikings, Saints and Bears are all 5-6

It seems to me that 8-8 might be enough to get you into the playoffs.

Remember this:
Last season the Giants were a wild card with an 8-8 record
In 2004, the Vikings and Rams qualified as wild cards with 8-8 record
In 1999, the Lions and Cowboys both qualified as wild cards with 8-8 record

The Bears Are Still Very Much Alive, Thank You Rex Grossman, Special Teams and Defense

Two weeks ago against the Raiders Rex Grossman had a defining moment. Having been benched a month earlier in favor of Brian Griese, Rex needed redemption. He got redemption and a defining moment, at least for a few days.

Down 6-3 to Oakland, the Bears got the ball back on their own 30 yard line with just under 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter. Rex had replaced an ineffective/injured Griese late in the first half with limited success. With a 3-5 record the Bears were in a must win situation.

Rex delivered and it only took 2 passes. 10 yards to Cedric Benson then 59 yards and a TD to Brian Berrian for the go-ahead and winning touchdown. Bears win 17-6, Bears get to 4-5. Rex was the starting quarterback again.

The following week against Seattle, Rex did not deliver. Down 7 with 8:10 left in the 4th quarter, Rex took over from his 20 yard line. 3 straight completions for 47 yards brought the ball to the Seattle 42 yard line. It looked like Rex was going to tie the game with a touchdown.

It wasn’t to be. Rex was sacked, fumbled, Seattle recovered and kicked a field goal with 3:30 left, making it a 10 point game. Game Over.

And now...the Broncos game. This was an absolute must win situation in a series of must win games for both the Bears and Broncos, but especially for the Bears.

To quote CBS analyst Dan Dierdorf , “it is a must win situation for both teams, but especially for the Bears. I mean, the Broncos play in the AFC West, so they can afford a loss, but the Bears, if they lose they are done.”

So how did Rex do? Rex did extremely well. The Bears special teams as well. Defense also.

Down 34-20 with just over seven minutes left in the 4th quarter, the Bears blocked a punt, giving them great field position on the Bronco 15 yard line.

10 yards to Greg Olsen, short 1 yarder to John Gilmore set up an Adrian Petersen TD run (not that Adrian Petersen) Bears down 7, 5:13 to go.

Now it was the defense’s turn. Get the ball back to Rex with enough time on the clock to move down the field and maybe just maybe, there can be overtime.

After just one first down, Denver was forced to punt, giving the Bears one last chance with 2:58 to play. Season, as Dan Dierdorf of CBS kept repeating, was on the line.

Just like the Oakland game, Rex delivered: 5 of 8 for 47 yards, including a great throw on 4th and goal from the 3 that required a circus catch by Brian Berrian to force overtime.

Overtime was just a formality. The Bears were destined to win and Rex only threw one pass: 39 yards to Desmond Clark that brought them to the Denver 37. Adrian Petersen 4 runs for 14 yards plus a Denver penalty brought out Robbie Gould for a 39 yarder straight and true.

Bears are 5-6. Very much alive. Why?

There are five other teams at 5-6 and the Bears play 3 of them: Minnesota, Washington and New Orleans. They still have to win those games but at least they are in the equation.


An Update On Jack Del Rio, The Rambling Gambling Man

Last week I wrote in great detail how Jaguars Head Coach Jack Del Rio’s gambling tendencies have helped the Jags beat the Chargers and Titans back to back.

Well, I thought it would be nice to give an update on Jack Del Rio and whether he gambled on 4th down today against the Bills.

Obviously he did. He’s not Jack Del Rio for nothing. And it worked. Again. Sort of. Let me explain.

Situation: Jags lead 13-7, 3:20 left in the 2nd quarter. 4th and 1 at the Bills 41 yard line.

Field Goal is out of the equation. A punt in the end zone would yield a net gain of only 21 yards.
Jags went for it, but unlike their attempts against Tennessee and San Diego, they failed. Maurice Jones Drew lost 5 yards.

Bills got possession. 3 plays later, JP Losman fumbled, Jags recovered. 7 plays later, Josh Scobee kicked a 22 yard field goal. 16-7 Jags.

What did we learn from the failed 4th down attempt? That Jack Del Rio (a)has the confidence in his offensive line to get him 1 yard every time (b)has confidence in his defence to get him the ball back if his offense cannot get the one yard and (c)the team has confidence in itself to get it done as well.

Teams have to be willing to gamble in short yardage situations near midfield. The Jags do this as well as, if not better, than any other team in the NFL. Even when they fail, they seem to succeed.

An Update On Jason Campbell: Another Failed Final Drive

An update on a coach, now an update on a quarterback.

Last week I wrote in excruciating detail how Redskins quarterback Jason Campbell has failed to get the necessary points in his final drive four times this season: against the Giants, packers, Eagles and Cowboys. On each occasion Campbell had enough time to get the job done: each time he and the Redskins failed.

Today against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers it happened again.

Redskins trailed 19-13, own 7 yard line, 3:05 remaining.

Campbell did a great job running the hurry up offense, or 2 minute drill if you will. He completed his first 7 passes on the drive for 66 yards. Add in a 2 yard scramble and the Redskins had the ball on the Buc 16 yard line.

Unfortunately, that was the extent of the good news for Skins fans. Next snap incomplete and then Campbell threw an interception in the end zone.

Make that 5 games this season where Jason Campbell had enough time to get the necessary points on his final drive and failed.

What Was Herman Edwards Thinking?

The Chiefs lost to the 2-8 Raiders today at Arrowhead. KC is now 4-7, three games out of the wild card race and two games out of the AFC West division lead.

The Chiefs play the Chargers next week and the Broncos the week after. Let’s just say that beating both teams that are ahead of you in the division is imperative if the Chiefs are to make the playoffs. One loss and they are toast.

Why did the Chiefs lose to the Raiders? Two words: Herman Edwards.

I am not a big fan of Herman Edwards. I have never made a secret of my distaste for Coach Edwards, both when he was Jets Head Coach and especially now that he is Chiefs Head Coach.

I will acknowledge that Edwards does have a good record when it comes to making the playoffs, having done so in four of his six full seasons as a head coach, not including 2007.

So what exactly happened?

Situation: Chiefs trail 20-17. It is 3rd and 5 on the Raider 27 yard line. 4:41 left in the 4th quarter. Clock is moving. Chiefs have all 3 timeouts remaining.

What happened on 3rd down? Completed pass to Eddie Kennison to the 23. A circus catch by Kennison, he rolled over, ball landed between his legs. The ball was spotted reasonably close to where it should have been. It is now 4th and 1 for the Chiefs at the Raider 23.

Herman Edwards decided he was going to go for it. He called timeout to set up the all important 4th down play. Should he have gone for it? It is debatable. Quarterback Brody Croyle is making his second career start, his running back Kolby Smith is making his first career start. Should Edwards trust either Kolby or Croyle on such a gamble? The season is hanging in the balance.

I would have attempted a game tying 40 yard field goal, but that is hardly the issue. Either decision is one I would support. 4:26 with 2 timeouts is plenty of time for a defense to get the ball back in case the 4th down play fails.

The issue is what happened next. During the timeout, Edwards and his offensive coordinator Mike Solari came up with the idea of challenging the spot where Kennison caught the ball. It was a poor decision for two reasons (a)the spot was very close to being accurate and (b)Coordinator Solari had plenty of time to view the game tape to make the same determination. A close extended look at the play should have discouraged such a challenge.

Why is this a problem? The Chiefs have already called a timeout, which they cannot get back. A team that throws the challenge flag on a play that is not reversed will lose ANOTHER timeout. If a team calls a timeout, THEN decides to challenge the play, they will not get their ORIGINAL timeout back even if the call is reversed. If the call is not reversed, they will lose a timeout on top of the timeout they already called. Got all that. It really is not that complicated.

The play was not reversed. The Chiefs lost a timeout, meaning they only had one timeout remaining with 4:26 left in the fourth quarter.

A 4th down gamble was an option BEFORE the officials review. AFTER the officials review, a 4th down gamble should have been thrown out the window. Why? A failed 4th down gamble with only one timeout remaining would allow the Raiders the to run out the clock with two first downs.

Kick the field goal and then hope your defense gets you the ball back. If you miss the field goal, and from 41 yards out it is not a chip shot, then your defense will have to work even harder.

You know the rest. Chiefs gamble, Kolby Smith, who had a great game until the 4th down play, gets stuffed.

Raiders take possession, 2 first downs later, Game Over for the Chiefs.

Should Cam Cameron Be Fired?

An 0-11 record will not guarantee a head coach any kind of job security. And rightfully so. 0-11 is 0-11, and 0-11 is not good.

Cam Cameron is 0-11 in his first season as a head coach.

However, keep the following information handy.

Tom Landy went 0-11-1 in his rookie season (1960) Landry won two Super Bowls
Chuck Noll went 1-13 in his rookie season (1969) He won four Super Bowls
Bill Walsh went 2-14 in his rookie season (1979) Walsh won three Super Bowls
Jimmy Johnson went 1-15 in his rookie season (1989) Jimmy won two Super Bowls
Bill Parcells went 3-12-1 in his rookie season (1983) The Tuna won two Super Bowls

I would never suggest that Cam Cameron should keep his job based on everything I just wrote.

However, sometimes a coach needs time to build a winning team.

Just a thought.

Meet The New Boss. Same As The Old Boss. The Story of Ken Whisenhunt

Imagine that you are Arizona Cardinals Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt. Your franchise is a loser, having made the playoffs just once since 1982. The records of your predecessors are absolutely awful: Gene Stallings (22-32) Joe Bugel (20-44) Buddy Ryan (12-20) Vince Tobin (28-43) Dave McGinnis (17-4) Dennis Green (16-32)

The reason you were hired by Arizona is because you were the offensive coordinator of a Super Bowl winning team: the Steelers of January 2006. As a result, your pedigree of success was very attractive to owners of downtrodden franchises, the Cardinals being at the top of the list.

Your team is 5-5, one game out of both a wild card berth and the division lead. Nothing worthy of a parade but in the NFC it will do quite nicely.

A few days previous the team ahead of you in the wild card standings lost, that team being the Detroit Lions. The door was opened for you.

Then, earlier in the day, one of the teams that was tied with you, the Washington Redskins, also lost. The door was opened even more.

The other 5-5 team, the Philadelphia Eagles, was schedule to play the 10-0 Patriots in the evening game. Not a guaranteed loss for the Eagles mind you, but...oh who are we kidding? Eagles lose, they fall to 5-6, just like the Redskins. The door has been smashed open. All you and your team have to do is win your game to put you in a tie for the last playoff spot and keep you one game out of the division lead.

And who are you playing? The 49ers, a team with the worst offense in the league and on an 8 game losing streak.

If you’re Ken Whisenhunt, you were hired to be the Cardinals head coach for just such a game. An extremely winnable game. Stallings, Bugel, Buddy, Tobin, McGinnis and Green couldn’t win these games. But you’re Ken Whisenhunt, you are different. You’ll find a way to win against a 2-8 team. Nobody in the Cards organization cares how you do it, but you have to win this game to get to 6-5.

Except you don’t. You blow a 4 point lead in the 4th quarter, but you tie the game up at the end of regulation. You win the coin toss, you go down the field but you take a delay of game penalty on the play where your kicker puts it through the uprights.

And since you are coach of the Cardinals, you just know that your kicker will miss the official kick on the next snap.

But that’s okay, because your defense gets you the ball back, albeit on your 4 yard line with 5 minutes left in OT. Figure a couple of running plays to open up the field, then punt, force a three and out and try to score on your last drive.

But since you are coach of the Cardinals, you just know that you’ll lose the game somehow, even against a 2-8 team on an 8 game losing streak.

Your quarterback fumbles the football and the other team recovers in the end zone. The fumble was not relevant of course, since the sack would have equalled a safety and the game would have been over anyways.

So please explain to me Coach Whisenhunt: what separates you from your predecessors?

As The Who once sang in their “Won’t Get Fooled Again”, “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss”.

This was the story of the Arizona Cardinals and Ken Whisenhunt. No matter who is in charge, you can expect to lose.

A Question For Lions Head Coach Rod Marinelli

Picture the situation: The Lions are trailing the Packers 34-12, 10 minutes left in the 4th. Lions get a TD, score is now 34-18, extra point pending. If the Lions go for 2 it becomes a 14 point game, eliminating the need to go for 2 later on (assuming they get another TD of course)

Lions Head Coach Rod Marinelli elects to kick the extra point. It is now 34-19, a 15 point game. But wait...the Packers are offside. This means that the Lions have the following choice: (a)take the extra point they just kicked or (b)go for the 2 point convert from the 1 yard line (half the distance to the goal line)

Why should the Lions go for 2. Because it is easier to score from the 1 yard line than it is to score from the 2.

Marinelli decides to take the extra point. Okay, with 10 minutes left perhaps it is too much of a risk.

The Lions get the ball back quickly, score another TD with 8 minutes left, making it 34-25, extra point pending.

If Marinelli goes for 2 and makes it, it is a 7 point game. If he goes for 2 and misses, it is a 9 point game. If he kicks the extra point, it is an 8 point 8 game. Decisions are the privelege of rank, and Marinelli is the boss.

Marinelli elects to kick the extra point again...and once again Green Bay is offside.

Decisions decisions. At that moment with 8 minutes left, Coach Marinelli had the exact same decision to make.

Option 1: Take the penalty and go for 2 from the 1 yard line
Option 2: Take the extra point

Again, not to nitpick but with the ball on the 1 yard line instead of the 2, the chances of success are greater.

Coach Marinelli takes the extra point, making it 34-26, an 8 point game. This means that the Lions would need a touchdown and a 2 point convert to tie the game, assuming they can get the ball back still trailing by 8. Which they don’t, making the last few paragraphs utterly meaningless.

Joe Gibbs Had The Same Predicament

Do not think that I am picking on Lions Coach Rod Marinelli. Joe Gibbs had a similar predicament against Tampa Bay.

Situation: 11 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, Skins trail 19-3. Skins get a TD, making it 19-9.

A successful 2 point convert makes it a one possession game. If the Skins go for 2 and fail it is a 10 point game.

Joe Gibbs kicks the extra point....and just like the Packers, Tampa Bay jumps offside.

But Joe Gibbs, like Rod Marinelli, decided to take the point instead of go for 2.

Has Anyone Ever Gone For 2 After A Penalty On The Extra Point?

Yes, actually. Trailing the Redskins by 7 in Week 11 of the 2005 season, Tampa Bay scored a touchdown with 48 seconds left. They kicked the extra point but Washington jumped offside.

Bucs Coach Jon Gruden did the unthinkable. He told the referees that he would go for 2, so they spotted the ball at the 1. A failed 2 point convert would end the game. No other coach would have done it. But Gruden did. Result: Mike Alstott got the TD, although replays would show that the ball never crossed the plain of the goal line.

Just some history for team990.com readers.

That’s it for me readers. I’ll be back with my predictions for Week 13 on Thursday night, before the Dallas Green Bay game.

Next Tuesday I’ll delve into the emailbag to answer readers’ comments and questions. If you have a question or comment to make, send it my way at jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com

Predictions For Week 12 In The NFL

Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the team990.com

Last week I was 11-5 with my picks, making me 63-35 for the season (64.3%). Not bad, could be better.

Well, here I go with my picks for Week 12.

Packers over the Lions: The absolute biggest game in the NFC this week. Why? Because of the playoff standings.

If the Lions lose, they fall to 6-5. This means that if any of the following teams win this week, they would be tied with Detroit for the final playoff spot: Redskins, Cardinals and Eagles.

And let us not forget all those teams at 4-6 that desperately need a Lions loss to keep them in contention: Bears, Vikings, Panthers and Saints.

Yes, readers, the Lions are the attraction this Thanksgiving.

Saints over the Panthers: The second biggest game in the NFC this week. Both New Orleans and the Panthers are fighting to get into the wild card race, and barring a Tampa collapse, perhaps even squeezing into the South divisional battle.

Sad to say, only one team can stay in the hunt after this week and that team will be New Orleans. Quarterback play will be key and I cannot envision any scenario which would indicate that Vinny Testeverde can turn back the clock.

Many will blame Panthers coach John Fox for not having the foresight to get a better backup quarterback than the ancient Testeverde. However that isn’t the case. Fox brought in the very capable David Carr in the offseason to compete with incumbent Jake Delhomme. What happened? Delhomme: out for the season. Carr: too banged up to play.

What does all this mean? Goodbye John Fox and Hello Bill Cowher.

Cowboys over Jets: Kellen Clemens has impressed with his 4th quarter come from behind drives against the Redskins and Steelers, although the Jets ended up losing in OT to Washington. But I just don’t see how the Jets can match up against Dallas on the road.

Colts over Falcons: After losing to the Bucs last week, the Falcons are done. The NFL Network should look into having a flex schedule for their Thursday night games the way NBC does.

Browns over Texans:
Jaguars over Bills:
Titans over Bengals:

The three absolutely huge AFC games to watch this week.

Why? Playoff implications. The Texans and Bills must win in order to have any chance of making the playoffs. Lose and it is light out, party’s over, build for next season.

Look at the math: Jags hold first wild card at 7-3, Titans and Browns tied for the second wild card at 6-4. Texans and Bills are both one game back at 5-5. If the Texans and Bills fall to 5-6 they will only have 5 games remaining to make up the difference, and we have not even calculated the tiebreakers that are currently not falling their way.

So how will the AFC playoff picture look like on Monday morning.

Wild Card 1: Jacksonville 8-3
Wild Card 2: Tennessee and Cleveland 7-4

The Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Chargers and Texans will all be at 5-6, 2 games out with 5 to play.

Chiefs over Raiders: Speaking of the Chiefs, Brodie Croyle should get his first win as a starter, although word just got out that Priest Holmes has retired for a second time. How will that affect the Chiefs? Still, this is a 2-8 Raiders team they are facing, one which cannot hold on to a second half lead.

Giants over Vikings: The 7-3 Giants are two wins away from clinching a playoff spot. This will be one of them.

Cardinals over 49ers: The Cardinals need this game to get to 6-5. A 6-5 record will do 2 things: it will keep Arizona one game back of the wild card at worst (depending on the Lions Packers result) and it will keep them in the NFC West title hunt. If the Seahawks beat the Rams, as I suspect, then the Cards absolutely cannot afford to lose this game.

Seahawks over Rams: see above. The Rams 2 game winning streak will end.

Steelers over Dolphins: The Dolphins 10 game losing streak will not end however. I can only imagine the blowout that will take place on Monday night, expecially when you factor in how embarrassed the Steelers must feel after blowing a 4th quarter lead to the now 2-8 Jets. This game is a great example of why ESPN should ask the NFL to allow flex scheduling for its Monday night games.

Patriots over Eagles: Blowout, regardless of who plays quarterback for the Eagles.

Ravens over Chargers Can’t they both lose? A tale of two coaches: Brian Billick, an egomaniac whose play calling on offense has potentially cost his team three games this season and Norv Turner, a man with a career record 24 games under .500. Ravens should come out fired up after last week's controversial loss to the Browns.

Broncos over Bears: both teams can still make the playoffs. The Broncos because they play in the AFC West and the Bears because they have to catch the Lions, who seem to be going backwards, as everyone predicted and expected. I expect Jay Cutler to continue playing well, as one would expect from a young quarterback playing under Mike Shanahan’s tutelage. Cutler will not end up like Brian Griese, who, hey hey, is playing for the Bears.

Redskins over Tampa Bay: Every week is a week closer to retirement for Joe Gibbs. How to avoid retirement? By winning enough games to make the playoffs. A loss to the Bucs won’t eliminate the Skins but it won’t help. In any case, the Skins should win this game.


Well, that’s it for me. I’ll be back Monday morning with my analysis of the week’s action.

Any comments or questions that you want included in the emailbag? Send them to jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com

Week 11 In The NFL

Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy on the team990.com

There is lots to cover from Week 11 so let us not waste any time.

The Rambling Gambling Man Does It Again

I hope that one day the media starts paying attention to Jaguars Head Coach Jack Del Rio. And not just because the Jags are 7-3. That part is obvious.

No, I am referring to Del Rio’s decision making abilities, in particular those made against the Titans last week and the Chargers yesterday.

Let’s rewind to last week’s game against the Titans.

Decision 1: Titans and Jags are scoreless, five minutes left in the first quarter. Ball on the Titans 33. 4th and 1.

Question: how many times has a coach sent in the field goal unit early in the game, using the theory that you do not gamble in the first quarter? The answer: too often.

Del Rio went for it. Got the first down. Four plays later, touchdown and a 7-0 lead.

Decision 2: Jags up 7-0, 10 minutes left in the second quarter. Ball on the Titans 32 yard line, 4th and 1.

Field goal attempt? Forget about it. It is time to gamble. Jags get a first down. Six plays later another touchdown and it is 14-0 Jaguars.

Decision 3: Jags lead 21-13, 8 minutes left in the 4th quarter. Ball at the Titans 39 yard line, 4th and 2.

Question: how many times has a coach sent in the punting unit in a similar situation? The answer: always.

Why? Because if you go for it on fourth down and fail you end up giving up all that field position. The media will eat you alive if you end up losing the game.

What did Jack Del Rio do? By now you have already figured it out. Del Rio gambled. The Jags get another first down. Seven plays later, another touchdown and it is game over. 28-13 Jaguars win.

That’s three big time gambles for Jack Del Rio that paid off with both first downs and eventual touchdowns.

Now let’s take a look at yesterday’s game against the Chargers.

Decision 1: Jags lead 3-0, 3 minutes left in the first quarter, ball on the Charger 11 yard line.

Question: this early in the game what would the normal coach do? Kick the chip shot field goal and take a 6-0 lead.

What did Jack Del Rio do? He gambled. Result: first down.

Decision 2: same drive, three plays later. It is 4th and goal from the 1.

By this time I do not need to tell you what Jack Del Rio decided or what the end result was. Gamble. Touchdown. 10-0 lead. 24-17 victory. And the Jags are 7-3.

What will Jack Del Rio do next week against the Buffalo Bills? Visit Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the team990.com for the full analysis.

Once, Twice Three Times A Big Missed Field Goal

With apologies to the Commodores, you had to feel bad for Browns field goal kicker Phil Dawson, regardless of whether or not you root for Cleveland. Let us recap.

Week 3 versus the Raiders: Dawson kicks a 40 yard field goal that gave the Browns a 27-26 victory over the Oakland Raiders. Except....except....Raiders coach Lane Kiffin called timeout a split second before the snap.

Dawson had to make the kick a second time. Unfortunately, he missed. Raiders win, Browns fall to 1-2.

Last week versus the Steelers: Dawson missed a 52 yard field goal as time expired that would have forced overtime.

And now yesterday against the Ravens. Dawson had to kick the football good and true from 52 yards out to force overtime. And he missed a big kick. Again. It hit the upright and came back out. Tough break. Not one, not two but three big missed kicks so far in 10 weeks.

But wait. The Ravens are in the dressing room celebrating, the Browns are dejected at 5-5 but wait....the referees huddle, and wait...the referees decide that the kick in fact hit the upright and came out, however it hit the inside upright, which makes the kick good and true.

So overtime it is for the Ravens and the Browns. And the hero is ...Phil Dawson from 33 yards out. The Browns are 6-4. The Ravens are 4-6. But why are the Baltimore Ravens 4-6?

Brian Billick And Play Selection: Won’t He Ever Learn?

I’ve already established that I am not a big fan of Brian Billick’s play calling. Please rewind my blog and you’ll read my thoughts on how Billick blew the opening Monday Night game against the Bengals and the Bills game from a few weeks ago with his atrocious playcalling.

How did Billick blow those games? By not running the ball in short yardage situations even though the clock was not a factor.

So what happened yesterday against the Browns?

Situation: Tie game, Ravens ball, 2nd and 1 from the Cleveland 29 yard line. 38 seconds left. Browns hold all their timeouts, so they can stop the clock after every snap. Willis McGahee has run for 102 yards on 21 carries.

This is basic PlayCalling 101. A degree in rocket science is not necessary to figure out what Brian Billick should do next.

Run the ball. Billick didn’t run the ball against the Bengals in week 1. Lost. Billick didn’t run the ball against the Bills a few weeks ago. Lost.

These are the options that Brian Billick has at his disposal.

Option 1: Run the ball on 2nd and 1, if you get a first down then you can bring the clock to the end before lining up for the game winning field goal.

Option 2: Run the ball on 2nd and 1, if you don’t get a first down, you’ll still force the Browns to start using their timeouts.

Option 3: Having failed to get a first down on the previous play, you run the ball on 3rd and short. If you fail, you still would have forced the Browns to use their timeouts.

Why is it important for Billick to force the Browns into using their timeouts? Because the field goal attempt on 4th down would be from about 46-48 yards, hardly a chip shot. A miss from that distance would give the Browns great field position at their own 36 to 38 yard line. There would be no sense in giving the Browns great field position AND timeouts. One of the two would suffice, although running the ball guarantees that the Browns would not get the ball back unless they win the coin toss to start overtime.

So what did Brian Billick decide on? Pass on 2nd and 1. Incomplete. Clock stops. Browns don’t have to use a timeout.

So now it’s 3rd and 1. What did Brian Billick decide on? Pass. Incomplete. Clock stops. Browns again don’t have to use a timeout.

To the Ravens credit, Matt Stover did give them the lead with his 47 yards field goal. That is still no excuse for leaving 26 seconds on the clock for one last Browns drive.

When poor play calling takes place, bad things usually follow. The Ravens gave up a 39 yard return on the kickoff. Derek Anderson 2 completions for 6 and 18 yards to give Phil Dawson a 51 yard attempt to force overtime. Which he missed. No wait, it was good. You know the story.

Overtime. More bad news for the Ravens. Coin Toss. Lost. Kickoff. Excellent return by Cribbs to the Brown 41. Great field position for the Browns. Derek Anderson 4 for 4 for 34 yards, Jamaal Lewis 4 carries for 14 yards. Phil Dawson the winner from 33 yards.

Can The Ravens Make The Playoffs?

In a word: No.

Why ? There are FIVE reasons

(1)The Ravens are 4-6. That’s not good
(2)The Ravens are three games out of the wild card with 6 games to play
(3)The Ravens are two games back of the Browns for second place in the AFC North. If you add in the sweep at the hands of the Browns, that makes a three game deficit
(4)The Ravens next 3 opponents: San Diego, New England, Indianapolis. The Ravens would need to win all three to stand at 7-6 with three games to play. Maybe the Ravens can out-muscle and eke out wins against the Chargers and Colts, but against the Patriots? I do not think so.
(5)The Browns schedule: Houston, Arizona, NYJets, Buffalo, Cincinnati and San Francisco. No guarantees that the Browns are going to finish 10-6 or 9-7 just based on their easier schedule, however, just a 3-3 record would guarantee that the Browns would finish ahead of the Ravens.

And if the Ravens finish 3rd in the North even at 9-7, they will not have enough wins to catch either the Titans and Jaguars.

Stick a fork in the Ravens. They are done.

Jason Campbell, Al Saunders, Joe Gibbs And The Redskins: Failure Number Four

The Washington Redskins are going to have to learn to come from behind and win the big games. In 2007, they have not done so. Why is that?

Jason Campbell is a young quarterback. As such, Campbell is going to make mistakes.

It is the job of the head coach and offensive coordinator to work with a young quarterback to make sure the learning curve is quick and efficient with as few errors as possible, especially in the fourth quarter of close games.

That is why Joe Gibbs hired Al Saunders after the 2005 season. Saunders wanted the head coaching job in Kansas City when Dick Vermeil retired. Saunders didn’t get it.

So he went to Washington instead as the second highest paid assistant in the NFL, behind his Redskins colleague Gregg Williams.

Saunders’ most important task was to work with Jason Campbell to make sure that he would be ready to replace Mark Brunell at the quarterback position. With the Skins at 3-6 last season, Brunell was benched. It was now Campbell’s team. No pressure. The season was already in the tank.

Campbell played reasonably well in a no risk situation, going 2-5 and showing promise.

This year, the Skins are 5-5 with Campbell at the helm. Campbell has played well at times and most definitely has shown why he was a first round draft choice.

However, a disturbing trend has shown itself as it concerns Jason Campbell.

Four times Jason Campbell has had the opportunity to either win the game or force overtime with a late drive and four times Jason Campbell has failed.

Let us rewind the cassette on the Redskins 2007 season as a case study.

Week 3: The Skins are trailing the Giants by 7. 2:13 remaining. Campbell starts off with great field position at the Giant 35. Campbell is impressive to start: completing passes on 3rd and 21, 4th and 8 and 3rd and 13. However with the ball on the 1 yard line with one minute left, Campbell spiked the ball needlessly, threw two incompletions and then unnecessarily hurried his team to the line of scrimmage where the disorganization led to a failed 4th down run.

Week 5: The Skins are trailing the Packers by 3. 1:13 remaining, own 20 yard line, no timeouts.
Result: incomplete, sack, incomplete, 4th down completed pass but short of the marker.

Last week: The Skins trail the Eagles by 1. 3:10 left. Own 25 yard line. Result: 3 yard pass, incomplete, incomplete, fumble, Eagles recover.

However, Campbell got the ball back with 2:13 to play trailing by 8. Own 30 yard line. Result: 6 plays net 10 yards.

And yesterday against the Cowboys: Trailing by 5, 2:52 remaining, 2 timeouts, great starting field position at the Dallas 40.

Campbell started great, McCardell for 11, Randle El for 10, making it 1st and 10 at the Cowboy 19 with just under 2 minutes to play. However, yet again, there was no happy ending for Campbell and the Skins. Incomplete, incomplete, then a horribly forced pass that was intercepted by Terrence Newman.

That’s four games that went down to the wire. That’s four games that the Redskins lost.

Joe Gibbs has a contract that expires after the 2008 season. There is speculation that Gibbs will not fulfill the last year of his contract if things don’t go well in the next 6 weeks.

The key ingredient that will decide Gibbs’ future is the continued development of Jason Campbell. If Gibbs is satisfied that Al Saunders has tutored the young quarterback properly, then he will be back.

Can The Redskins Make The Playoffs?

In a word: maybe.

The Redskins are 5-5. Not great but not bad either.

The Lions hold the second wild card spot at 6-4, which means the Skins are only one game out of the playoffs.

Who do the Lions play to close out the season: Green Bay, Minnesota, Dallas, San Diego, Kansas City and Green Bay again. This is not an easy schedule.

This is also the Lions we are talking about. They haven’t won more than 6 games in a season since 2000. Everyone is waiting for them to fall apart. It may or may not happen.

What are the combined opponents records for all the wild card contenders, including the 7-3 Giants?

x-Giants 7-3 33-27 .550
x-Lions 6-4 40-20 .667
Cardinals 5-5 23-37 .383
Redskins 5-5 35-25 .583
Eagles 5-5 41-19 .683
Vikings 4-6 28-32 .467
Bears 4-6 33-27 .550
Panthers 4-6 34-26 .567
Saints 4-6 27-33 .450

x-signifies that these teams are currently holding a playoff spot

The data would suggest the following

(1)The Lions and the Eagles are going to have a hard time
(2)The Cardinals have the easiest remaining schedule
(3)The Saints don’t have a difficult schedule, however their 2 straight losses after getting back to .500 will end up costing them

This Man Had The Best Weekend Of Anyone In Football And It’s Not Even Close

Jon Gruden is the luckiest man in football this week.

Gruden’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 5-4 and had a bye heading into this week’s big divisional game against the improving Falcons.

The weekend was rife with risks for Gruden and the Bucs. They were only one game up on both Carolina and New Orleans, and a loss to Atlanta would put the Falcons only one game back, making the NFC South a legitimate four way race.

So what ended up happening? Well, everything that could go right for Jon Gruden did go right.

Number 1: His Bucs beat the Falcons, effectively ending any chance Atlanta had of getting into the playoff picture.
Number 2: The Panthers lost to Green Bay, putting Carolina two games back of Gruden’s gang Number 3: The Saints lost to Houston, putting New Orleans two games back of Gruden’s gang

What does all this mean? It means that Tampa Bay holds a two game lead on both Carolina and New Orleans with 6 games to play. Factor in that Tampa Bay beat both Carolina and New Orleans earlier this season and the Bucs in effect have a 2.5 lead.

Barring a collapse, the Bucs will find themselves in the playoffs.

Why Football Is The Greatest Sport When You Have Multiple Television Sets

As always I found myself at the Team 990 studio on Sunday afternoon, working and watching three football games at once as well as listening to a fourth.

And in a two minute span, between 4:03 to 4:05, the following ALL happened.

(1)Trailing by 7, the Raiders get to the Viking 36 with 12 seconds left. However a false start penalty brought the ball 5 yards back and forced the Raiders into a failed Hail Mary once the 10 second run off was factored in.

(2)Trailing by 6, Jon Kitna was intercepted by Sam Madison at the Giant 33 yard line with 90 seconds remaining. Game Over.

(3)With the Chiefs and Colts tied, Peyton Manning with a quarterback sneak on 4th and 1 from the Chiefs 3 yard line, followed by Adam Vinatieri’s chip shot field goal at the final gun.

(4)Trailing the Jags by 7, Philip Rivers is intercepted with 90 seconds left at his own 46, effectively ending the game.

Wow! The best television investment a football fan can make is to ensure that they can catch as many of the Fox, CBS and CTV affiliates as possible, thus ensuring that they can watch as many games as possible.

That’s it for me. I’ll be back with my predictions for Week 12 on Wednesday night.

Don’t forget that the Team 990 will be broadcasting all three Thanksgiving Day Games this Thursday.

Enjoy the games and don’t forget to check back in with Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G o the team990.com

Predictions For Week 11 In The NFL

Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G: Predictions Edition.

How did I do with my predictions last week? Only a 7-7 record, which is a huge comedown from the combined 20-7 the previous 2 weeks. Overall record: 52-30 (63.4%)

Any questions or comments: send them to me at jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com. I will have an e-mailbag with next week’s predictions.

Anyway, here we go with Week 11.

Giants over the Lions: The biggest game of the week. Winner gets to 7-3, one game up on the loser for the first wild card spot, potentially two games up on the 2nd wild card depending on the outcome of the Skins-Cowboys game.

Cowboys over the Redskins: If I cannot trust Joe Gibbs to make the right decisions to pull out a 4th quarter victory over the Giants, Packers and Eagles, how can I trust that Gibbs will prepare his team to compete, let alone win against the powerhouse Cowboys.

Bucs over the Falcons: Believe it or not, the Falcons are still very much alive in the playoff race. They trail the the Buccaneers by two games and they play them twice, this one being the first. The Bucs will win this game though. A week off to heel and prepare should be the difference.

Eagles over the Dolphins: If the Eagles win to get to 5-5, then they would be one game back in the playoff race. Teams that desperately need to win cannot lose to winless teams. Buffalo and the Saints were in the exact same position last week. The Bills won, the Saints lost. Eagles win because they need it more.

Jaguars over the Chargers: The Chargers offense looks horrible, surprising for a Norv Turner team. The Jags cannot throw the ball, although David Garrard is supposed to come back after four weeks on the injured list. He’ll make a huge difference.

Bengals over the Cardinals: The Cards lose when they should win and they win when they should lose. They should win this game, so they’ll lose. Get it. Got it. Good.

Bears over the Seahawks: Simply put, the Bears need to win. Badly. Seattle plays in a weak division, so they can afford to stink up the place and still make the playoffs.

Patriots over the Bills: I’d love to choose the Bills as an upset special, which would make them 6-4 and place them smack dab in the middle of the playoff race. But have you seen the Patriots play?

Rams over the 49ers: The 49ers have given up. What reasons can I give to support my thesis? They played the Seahawks on Monday night, prime time baby, prime time. Their coach stuck with the team even though his dad died. Final score: 49ers lose by 24. If these two factors don’t combine to motivate a team, then what the hell can?

Raiders over the Vikings: The Raiders have blown a 4th quarter lead four times. Imagine if they had held serve just twice, they’d be one game back of the division lead. The Vikes can run the ball, but at quarterback they have to choose between Tarvaris Jackson (not ready for the NFL) Koy Detmer (never ready for the NFL) and Brooks Bollinger (nothing to be said)

Colts over Chiefs: Both teams are on two game losing streaks, both teams are banged up. The difference will be Brodie Croyle: his first game as a starter will be a learning experience. There are easier teams to learn against then the Colts.

Packers over the Panthers: I believe in Brett Favre. Even though he’s made a bunch of rookie mistakes, the Packers continue to win. They are certainly not going to lose to Carolina.

Browns over the Ravens: based on their killer schedule, the Ravens are done for even if they win this game. Steve McNair is not the answer, Kyle Boller has never been the answer.

Texans over the Saints: the Texans need this game more than the Saints do, since they are going after the wild card. The Saints can make the playoffs only as a division winner and their division is weak.

In other games: Titans over Broncos, Steelers over Jets.

That’s it for me. Come back to my blog Monday afternoon when I post my thoughts on Sunday’s games. Any comments or questions: email them to me at jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com

An Analysis Of Week 10 In The NFL

Welcome to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the Team 990.com

I’m Jimmy Garoufalis and I’ll be writing NFL and at the end I’ll be analyzing Jim Popp and his 3rd down gamble versus Winnipeg.

Any questions, comments to make. Send them to jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com

I will delve more deeply into the e-mailbag hopefully for my predictions post this Saturday. Today I’ll answer the most pertinent question.

From Jonathan Morell comes an Eagles question.

“I'm a big Eagles fan, so I consider myself lucky that they are in the NFC where they still have a decent shot at the playoffs. Here's my question: With Donovan McNabb returning this year after
the tough surgery last season, do you expect him to ever fully regain the mobility and scrambling ability that has always been a hallmark of his? Can he return to form? Thanks for your time and keep it up!”

Jonathan, I don’t think Donovan will every full regain his scrambling skills and mobility because he has had multiple injuries to his knees/ACL and he is about to turn 31 in a few days. But at the same time I don’t think he has to be a running quarterback to be successful. McNabb is a professional quarterback who is smart enough to change his style on the fly to fit into whatever strategy the team requires.

Donavan McNabb is and should remain the Eagles starting quarterback, Kevin Kolb be damned. And once Andy Reid decides that Kevin Kolb should be the starter, which could take place at next years’s training camp then Donovan should be traded or waived immediately.

Why? Look around. Joey Harrington is starting for Atlanta. Vinny Testeverde is starting in Carolina. Josh McCown in Oakland. Cleo Lemon in Miami. Tarvaris Jackson/Brooks Bollinger/Kelly Holcomb in Minnesota.

Is anyone going to suggest that these teams wouldn’t want Donovan McNabb to be their starting quarterback?

There is a huge market for experienced winning quarterbacks. Donovan McNabb is an experienced winning quarterback.

Now I’d like to focus my Week 10 analysis on the playoff races in both the AFC and NFC.

First the AFC

Division Leaders
New England 9-0
Indianapolis 7-2
Pittsburgh 7-2
SD 5-4

Wild Card Teams
Tennessee 6-3
Jacksonville 6-3

Still fighting hard
Cleveland 5-4
Buffalo 5-4
Kansas City 4-5
Denver 4-5

Perhaps a little too far back
Baltimore 4-5

Let’s start with the basic facts.

(1)The AFC West will produce only one playoff team this season: the division winner and that’s it.

(2)The Colts, Patriots and Steelers have all but clinched their divisions.

(3)Baltimore is finished. The Ravens are two games out of a playoff spot. Even if they beat the Browns next weekend to get to .500, they then play the Chargers, Patriots and Colts back to back to back. The Ravens need to be at least 7-6 with three games remaining to have any chance at making a playoff push. Can the Ravens win three of their next 4 to get to 7-6? Highly unlikely.

(4)The Browns can make the playoffs only as a wild card. By blowing a 21-9 halftime lead to the Steelers, the Browns fell to 5-4, three games back of Pittsburgh (including the tiebreaker) Therefore Cleveland will not be winning the division unless the Steelers collapse, which is very unlikely to happen.

Can the Browns make a playoff push? Let’s look at who the Browns play over the last 7 weeks.

Week 11 Baltimore 4-5
Week 12 Houston 4-5
Week 13 Arizona 4-5
Week 14 NYJets 1-8
Week 15 Buffalo 5-4
Week 16 Cincinnati 3-6
Week 17 San Francisco 2-6*

I’d say the Browns have a better shot than people think. Their schedule, unlike Baltimore’s, does not include powerhouse teams.

(5)Who has the edge among the three AFC West teams? Let’s look at the remaining schedules, shall we?

The Chiefs play: Indianapolis, Oakland, San Diego, Denver, Tennessee, Detroit and NYJets
The Broncos play: Tennessee, Chicago, Oakland, KC, Houston, San Diego and Minnesota.
The Chargers play :Jacksonville, Baltimore, KC, Tennessee, Detroit, Denver, Oakland

Each team plays the other plus Oakland. So those 3 games cancel out.
The Chiefs play 3 teams who are 6-3 or better: the 8-1 Colts, 6-3 Titans and 6-3 Lions
The Chargers play 3 teams who are 6-3 or better: 6-3 Jaguars, 6-3 Titans, and 6-3 Lions
The Broncos play only Tennesse who is at 6-3. The Broncos also play the 4-5 Ravens, 4-5 Bears, 4-5 Texans and 3-6 Vikings.

Face facts: two weeks ago everyone was counting Mike Shanahan and the Broncos out of the playoffs. Now with a big division win on the road and the Chargers only one game up, the Broncos are right back in the thick of things.

(6)The Titans blew a chance to put some distance between themselves and everyone else. A win against the Jags would have given them a 2 game lead over Jacksonville for the first wild card spot, a three game lead if you include the tiebreaker (Titans sweep of the Jags that didn’t take place) If the Titans don’t make the playoffs, this is the game they’ll regret: a home game against a divisional opponent where they came out flat.

(7)If Buffalo Bills Head Coach Dick Jauron is ever going to win a big game against a powerhouse team, next week has to be it. Four game winning streak, 5-4 record, one game out of a playoff spot and they play at home on national TV Sunday night against a 9-0 Patriots team coming off a bye.

After the Patriot game, the Bills travel to Jacksonville and Washington. Tough teams both of them are. Dick Jauron needs to pull out all the stops from his playbook. This game means everything. If he has to stay up until 4 a.m. studying game film so be it. If he can’t see his family for an entire week because he is sleeping on the couch at the office, well them’s the breaks. Whatever it takes, Jauron and the Bills must do.

(8)The Chiefs, I imagine, will be starting Brodie Croyle against the Colts next Sunday. I have been Damon Huard’s biggest supporter but enough is enough! Two consecutive blown second half leads at Arrowhead! I am worried that Brodie Croyle is going to make rookie mistakes just like Jay Cutler did down the stretch for Denver last season.

But as Hall of Fame coach Sid Gillman once said, “Quarterbacks are like tea leaves, you have to put them in hot water to find out what you got”

If the Chiefs are going to find out about Brodie Croyle, they might as well start finding out now.


Now the NFC playoff picture

Division Leaders
Dallas 8-1
Green Bay 8-1
Tampa Bay 5-4
Seattle 5-4

Wild Card Teams
Detroit 6-3
NYGiants 6-3

Still Fighting Hard
Washington 5-4
Arizona 4-5
Carolina 4-5
New Orleans 4-5

Perhaps a little too far back
Philadelphia 4-5
Chicago 4-5

Question 1
If they all have the same record, why are the 4-5 Cardinals, Saints and Panthers listed above the 4-5 Eagles and Bears?
Answer 1
Because the Cards, Saints and Panthers are only one game out the division lead. The Bears and Eagles can’t win their divisions and are 2 games out the wild card. That’s a huge difference.

(1)The Redskins blew another 4th quarter lead to a division opponent. First it was to the Giants and now to the Eagles. They sit at 5-4 and they play Dallas next week. But all is not lost. Why?

(2)The Giants and the Lions both lost as well, and those teams hold the 2 wild card spots at 6-3, one game up on Washington. The Giants and Lions also play each other next week, so unless the game ends in a tie, the Skins are guaranteed at worst to remain one game back for the final playoff spot (should they lose to Dallas) or be tied with the loser of the Giants-Lions (should they beat Dallas)

(3)Let me understand this. The Saints win four straight to get to 4-4, a half game out of first. In order to get to 5-4 all they have to do is beat an 0-8 Rams team at home. Granted the Rams had a bye week but still! The Rams are 0-8! Result: The Saints lose to the Rams 37-29! The loss basically means that for the Saints to make the playoffs they have to win the division.

(4)The Falcons are not out of the playoff picture! Don’t laugh! Look at their schedule.

Week 11 Tampa Bay
Week 12 Indianapolis
Week 13 Saint Louis
Week 14 New Orleans
Week 15 Tampa Bay
Week 16 Arizona
Week 17 Seattle

Aside from the Colts, every is extremely winnable.

Small reminder: In 1992 the San Diego Chargers hired Bobby Ross away from Georgia Tech to be their new head coach. How did the Chargers do? They started 0-4, then rattled off an 11-1 record the rest of the way. See, it is possible.

(5)The Cardinals are one game back of Seattle and have the two biggest games of the season coming up: against the 3-6 Bengals and the 2-7 49ers. They simply cannot split the next two weeks if they are going to make the playoffs. A true playoff team does not lose to the Bengals and 49ers. A playoff wannabe does. Which are the Cardinals? We’ll find out soon enough.

(6)When it comes to 4-5 teams the Bears are in the worst spot. They cannot catch Green Bay and unlike the Eagles, they have been swept by the team directly in front of them (Lions)

(7)Mike Holmgren is a lucky man. His Seahawks have had one of the three easiest schedules in football each season since 2004. What about 2007 you may ask?

If the season ended today, the Seahawks would have played only three games against teams above .500 (Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay)

None of the remaining opponents for Seattle has a record that currently stands over .500


A Small Note About The AFC West

If Brodie Croyle and Jamarcus Russell both start this week for the Chiefs and Raiders, then every quarterback in the division will be either a first of second year starter. Very strange that such an occurrence would take place in the league’s most traditional division.

Everyone Please Apologize To Bill Belichick

Let me understand correctly.

The New England Patriots running up the score by keeping their starters in for practically the entire game makes Bill Belichick a bad person.

Okay so far I understand the reasoning.

Now, using the same reasoning, what do you think of Packers Head Coach Mike McCarthy?

The Packers are leading the Vikings 27-0 with just over 11 minutes to play in the 4th quarter.

They get the ball back and guess who is still under center? Brett Favre.

Okay, so Brett Favre is under center. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the Packers are going to run up the score. Not at all. If they run the ball on every snap that would be showing respect to the Vikings. By running the ball, the Packers would in effect be saying: we are telegraphing our plays, go ahead and stop us. If you don’t stop us, that’s your problem. I’m down with that.

But what does Packer Coach Mike McCarthy decide? He decides that Brett Favre should throw on 4 of the 9 snaps during the drive. Result: TD pass to Ruvell Martin. 34-0 Packers.

Please understand this: I have no problem with teams running up the score. If the opposition cannot stop you, you shouldn’t be forced to stop yourself.

However, everyone should be consistent with their criticism. If you are going to blast Bill Belichick, then blast everyone else who behaves in a similar fashion. Starting with Mike McCarthy.

A Few Words About Jim Popp and Similar Gambles

I cannot post my blog without commenting on Jim Popp and his highly questionable decision to gamble on 3rd and inches from his own 44 yard line with 1:37 to play in the 4th quarter, leading 22-21.

Highly questionable decision? Who is kidding whom?

It was a ridiculous decision made by a coach who put his ego in front of the team’s best interest.

Before continuing, let’s rewind the cassette shall we?

The Alouettes were leading 22-21
The Alouettes were at their own 44 yard line
The Alouettes defense had done a great job containing the Blue Bombers

An average punt by Damon Duval with an average return would have pinned the Bombers inside their own 35 yard line. Those are better odds than a 3rd down gamble that gives the opposition possession at your 44. That is a difference of anywhere between 30-35 yards in field position. A significant amount of yardage even when you factor in that there as plenty of time remaining.

The only decision to make under these circumstances is to punt. Anything else would be madness.

Instead Jim Popp elected to gamble. Marcus Brady is stuffed at the line of scrimmage, Bombers get great field position, Alouettes defense gets pushed back by aggressive Bomber front line and a hungry Charles Roberts gets big yards, Troy Westwood with the chip shot field goal to win the game. End of Alouettes season.

Why would Jim Popp go for it? Ego.

Jim Popp has stood in the background for so long watching his coaches, especially Don Matthews, get credit for the Als regular season success. That’s the nature of football. Head coaches receive the glory when a team is successful. General Managers stay in the background, accumulating respect from the media and maybe the fans.

That’s Jim Popp in a nutshell. Highly respected for his personnel decisions but hardly a guy
that the fans and media think of when they think of the Alouettes and their Grey Cup appearances. Nice man, very capable, a guy who can run my organization any day of the week from the office. But on the field, not a chance.

Most general managers accept the tradeoff because by nature that is how they are.

Jim Popp never struck me that way. Just reading Popp’s comments throughout the season worried me. I got the distinct impression that his boastful nature was not due to confidence, but a result of insecurity. Because Popp does not have an overbearing personality or the Grey Cup titles of a Don Matthews, he had to overcompensate by making bold and brash statements.

Just reading players comments throughout the season one got the impression that noone had confidence in Jim Popp’s coaching abilities. I think Jim Popp had very little confidence in his abilities, ergo, he had to talk tough to try to convince others, and maybe just maybe, he could then convince himself that he was a capable head coach.

Can you imagine any other coach with a sub .500 record saying that he was doing an excellent job. You’d be pressed to find a coach with great prior success to say those words.

Back to Popp.

The team’s best interest was to punt the football and then play good defense to prevent a game winning field goal by the Bombers.

Jim Popp’s best interest was to create an image for himself as an extreme risk taker willing to gamble everything away.

When a team’s intererest and a coach’s interest collide, the team’s best interest better win out. In this case it didn’t and as a result, the Alouettes are going home early.


Has a similar gamble ever taken place before?

I can think of two occasions.

Number 1 Steelers Cowboys Super Bowl X

Steelers lead 21-17, 1:27 remaining. Steelers ball at the Cowboy 42 yard line. 4th and 7.

A punt would give the Cowboys the ball inside their own 20 at best with no timeouts to go down the field.

What did Steelers coach Chuck Noll decide?. He went for it. Run up the middle failed. Cowboy ball at their own 43. Staubach completed two passes to get to the Steeler 40 before throwing an interception in the end zone to end the game.

Number 2 Cowboys Eagles Week 15 1995 Regular Season

Game tied. Cowboys ball at their 29 yard line. 4th and 1. The obvious decision was to punt the football, then force overtime by stopping the Eagles.

Cowboys Head Coach Barry Switzer had other ideas. He gambled. And Lost. Emmitt Smith was stuffed at the line of scrimmage. The Eagles got the ball at the Dallas 29, ran the clock down to zero and kicked the winning field goal.

So Jim Popp had history on his side. He and his supporters can easily quote these very famous incidents just as easily as I can.

Both Noll and Switzer were criticized for their decisions, although Noll ended up winning the game.

But let’s not kid ourselves. The similarities end with the situation. That’s it.

Why are the situations different? The identity of the decision maker, that’s why?

Who was Chuck Noll before he gambled late in Super Bowl X ? Chuck Noll was the head coach of the defending Super Bowl champions. After his gamble, Chuck Noll was the head coach of the two time defending Super Bowl champions.

Who was Barry Switzer before he gambled against the Eagles? Barry Switzer was a three time NCAA champion with Oklahoma, owner of a 12-4 record his rookie season in Dallas and a 10-4 record after the loss to the Eagles. And lest anyone forget, after the failed Switzer gamble, the Cowboys rattled off five straight wins to win the Super Bowl against hey hey, look at the irony here, the Steelers.

Now let’s look at Jim Popp. Who was Jim Popp before he gambled against the Blue Bombers? Owner of an 8-10 record in his first season as a head coach after a lifetime of background work.

That’s it. Nothing else. If Don Matthews goes for it and fails, he can point to his five Grey Cup titles with 4 different teams and the media and fans would have to grudgingly accept a Matthews risk as part of the package. You hire me, Matthews would say, you take the good with the bad, and a Grey Cup would be included somewhere down the line. So you have to accept it.


Well there you have it for another week. I’ll be back on Saturday with my predictions for Week 11 in the NFL.

Predictions for Week 10 in the NFL

Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G: Predictions Edition

In Week 9 I was 10-4, making me 45-23 overall, a shade under 2/ (66.2%).

I promised to delve into the mailbag for this edition, but I will save the readers emails and answers until Tuesday afternoon, when I post my Week 10 thoughts.

For now, here are my predictions for Week 10 in the NFL. Almost every game is huge.

Atlanta over Carolina: Testeverde and Carr won’t play for the Panthers. Undrafted Matt Moore will start at QB. Matt Who? Exactly.

Kansas City over Denver: The Chiefs need this game badly. A win here coupled with a Charger loss to the Colts will give KC a one game lead over the Chargers without even calculating the head to head win earlier this season. The Broncos desperately need this game as well. Interesting fact: the Broncos may be imploding but a win against KC could vault them into a 3 way tie for 1st in the AFC West, if the Colts beat the Chargers.

Indianapolis over San Diego: This is huge for both teams but more so for San Diego. If the Colts lose and the Titans beat the Jags, Tennessee and the Colts would be tied at 7-2. If the Chargers lose, as I already mentioned in the KC Denver note, they can fall behind KC by a game plus a tiebreaker. This is a big game and Norv Turner is on the sidelines: Chargers lose.

New Orleans over St Louis: This is NOT an absolute must win for the Saints because they play in a weak NFC South. The Saints also play the Bucs and Panthers back to back in three weeks, so they can make up any lost ground at that time. However, when you are fighting for a playoff spot, you cannot afford to lose to an 0-8 team, which is exactly what the Rams are.

Tennessee over Jacksonville: This is an ABSOLUTE must win for Jacksonville. A loss puts the Jags at 5-4, 2 games back of Tennessee for the 1st wild card, three games back if you include the sweep at the hands of the Titans. I’d feel a lot better about the Jags chances if the had David Garrard at QB, but with Quinn Gray taking the snaps, Titans squeak out another close victory.

Baltimore over Cincinnati: Turn out the lights, the Bengals have quit on Marvin Lewis. A good coach will most likely find himself looking for work, contract status be damned. For the Ravens, this is an easy game before the brutal four week stretch of tough opponents begins: Browns, Chargers, Patriots, Colts. The Ravens need to get to 5-4, then beat 2 of those 4 tough teams to stand at 7-6 with an outside chance at making the playoffs. I am not comfortable choosing the Ravens but they need this game badly while the Bengals, they don’t seem interested anymore.

Dallas over the NY Giants : Yet another huge game. A Giants win makes them 7-2, tied with Dallas for 1st in the NFC East. A Dallas win makes them 8-1, 2 games up on the Giants, three games up if you include the tiebreaker( Dallas beat the Giants in Week 1) So this in effect is a 2 game swing either way. The Giants have had the week off after travelling to London. The Giants are the team that is most desperate but I don’t think they can stop Tony Romo and the Cowboy offense.

Seattle over San Francisco: The 49ers have absolutely no offense whatsoever. The Seahawks are an average team which plays in a very weak division. Ugly game, Seattle moves to 5-4

Detroit over Arizona: Maybe it’s not time to believe in the Lions just yet, but even with a week off, I haven’t seen enough from Cards coach Ken Whisenhunt to believe the Cards can win a must game. Perhaps the theory of “meet the new boss, same as the old boss” will apply to Whisenhunt when it is all said and done. Either way, the Cards have to win these games to get me on their side.

Washington over Philadelphia: An ABSOLUTE must win game for Joe Gibbs and the Redskins. A win makes them 6-3 with a game at Dallas next week. The two wild card teams in the NFC at the moments are the Lions and Giants, both at six wins. The Skins are playing a distracted Eagles team whose season in already over. A playoff wannabe cannot lose a game like this and the Redskins won’t.

Chicago over Oakland: The Jamarcus Russell era will start after this game for the Raiders, not that it will make a difference this season. The Bears are three games out of a playoff spot, last in their division. They play Seattle and Denver after they finish with Oakland. If they are going to make a playoff push, it starts against the Raiders.

Steelers over the Browns: I don’t believe in the Browns just yet and the Steelers are too strong right now, short week be damned. A win by the Steelers will give them a 2 game lead over Cleveland and possibly the Ravens as well, three games if you include the head to head tiebreakers the Steelers possess over both.

Green Bay over Minnesota: I cannot believe that the Packers are winning all these games in the 4th quarter. I always predict that they will lose and they win. This week I predict they will win.

Buffalo over Miami: The Bills are 4-4 and they play New England next week. Any chance of making the playoffs rests on winning this game. This is a big game and Dick Jauron is on the sidelines. The Bills win (only because the opponent is Miami)

That’s it for me. Remember to read my blog on Tuesday afternoon when I post my Week 10 thoughts and analysis.

An Analysis Of Week 9 In The NFL

Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G. Another week gone by, lots to talk about in the NFL. I’ll be answering readers’ emails in my post Saturday along with my predictions. Any questions or comments, please send them to jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com

Let’s get down to business, shall we?

Did You Think The Patriots Would Blow A 4th Quarter Lead?

Once the Patriots took a 24-20 lead with 3:15 to play the game was over.

Why? Because the Patriots under Bill Belichick do not blow 4th quarter leads.

Heading into the Colt game, the Patriots had won their last 32 games when they had a lead at any point in the 4th quarter.

If you need further proof of how dominant the Patriots are at closing the deal, here is their record since 2001 when holding a 4th quarter lead: 79-1 (98.75%)

Brodie Croyle or Damon Huard ?

Brodie Croyle is the young gunslinger, the future of the Kansas City Chiefs franchise. Live arm, lots of upside.

Damon Huard is the veteran, a caretaker who is the Chiefs starter simply because he won’t lose you the game.

The Chiefs are 4-4, tied for first place in the AFC West with the San Diego Chargers.

If you are Chiefs coach Herman Edwards, you have a decision to make: who starts at quarterback?

If Coach Edwards is looking for inspiration before making his decision I have two words for him: Mike Shanahan.

Yes Mike Shanahan. Shanny and the Broncos were 7-4 last season, holding onto a wild card spot. Who was Shanny’s quarterback? Jake Plummer. Plummer the veteran, the caretaker who was expected to do little except not mess up his team’s chances of winning.

What did Shanahan do? He benched Plummer in favor of Jay Cutler, who was considered to be the future of the Broncos franchise. Live arm, lots of upside.

How did that work out for Denver? Cutler went 2-3 in his 5 starts, and the Broncos narrowly missed the playoffs.

If Edwards goes with Croyle, he risks the same fate as Shanahan.

Cutler is both the present and future for Denver. Unfortunately the present isn’t looking so good, what with the Broncos 3-5 and a game out of first place in the AFC West.

Edwards is going to stick with Huard. Why? Because even though Croyle needs to play now in order to develop into a quarterback who can bring a team long term success, the Chiefs and Coach Edwards want to win now.

Croyle will need a few games to adjust to playing regularly in the NFL. The Chiefs don’t have a few games to spare. Every game is a fight for playoff survival.

Speaking Of Young Quarterbacks

Kellen Clemens didn’t put up great numbers against Washington: 23 of 42 for 226 yards is hardly impressive.

But Clemens showed why experts have been calling for him to start at quarterback for the Jets: he possesses poise in the pocket and he finds room to manouevre when the pass rush gets extreme.

And Clemens did a few things that Chad Pennington couldn’t do: find his receivers in stride over the middle and throw a nice deep ball. With Pennington, Jets receivers would have to come back to the ball and passes over the middle would become potential career enders for anyone trying to make the catch.

Take the last drive of regulation: down 3 with just over 5 minutes to play, Clemens drove the Jets from his own 25 to the Skins 11 yard line in 15 plays.

Three times the Jets faced 3rd down and three times Clemens converted: completions to Mcareins and Washington plus a scramble when flushed out of the pocket. Field Goal Jets. Overtime.

Speaking Of Overtime

When you are out of field goal range, the coaches handbook dictates that you never give up field position on 4th and long unless there is a guarantee that your opponent cannot get the ball back or if you are trailing and down to your final possession.

Using this theory, Jets Head Coach Eric Mangini made the right decision.

Situation: It is overtime, Jets have the ball on the Redskin 39, 4th and 7. A field goal is out of the question. 57 yards, outdoors, windy. A missed field goal would give the Skins the ball at their own 47. Not an option.

Again, if the handbook is correct, punting the football has its advantages for the Jets.

(1)The Skins will be pinned inside their 20 as long as the punt doesn’t land in the end zone. If the punt is really good, the Skins might find themselves on the goal line, where a safety becomes a giant possibility.

(2)A three and out will give the Jets another possession near midfield.

If the Jets go for it and fail, they would be giving the Skins the ball back from anywhere between their own 32 to 38 yard line.

I was going to write about how Eric Mangini made the wrong decision, how he should have gone for it. Why not? He’s 1-7 and out of the playoffs. Why not take a risk?

But just like last week when Mangini punted on 4th and 3 on the Bills 42 trailing by 3 late in the 4th quarter, Mangini made the safe, and ultimately, correct choice.

Unfortunately, similar to last week, the Jets still lost. The Bills scored on a long touchdown pass to Lee Evans and yesterday the Skins drove 61 yards in 10 plays to set up Shaun Suisham’s 46 yard overtime field goal.

I’ll repeat what I wrote last week. In 2006, the Jets had the lead or were tied in the 4th quarter 11 times. The Jets won 10 of those games.

In 2007, the Jets have had the lead or were tied in the 4th quarter 6 times. The Jets have only one win.

It Is Time For Jamarcus Russell

The Raiders are 2-6. Whether it be Josh McCown or Daunte Culpepper, the production from the quarterback position has been non existent. In their win against the now 0-8 Dolphins Culpepper ran for three touchdowns but only threw 12 passes, a clear indicator of how much confidence Head Coach Lane Kiffin has in the former Viking star.

Let’s get back to the record. At 2-6 the season is over for Oakland. It is time to face facts.

Culpepper has limited mobility, lacks confidence and shows very little poise in the pocket. There are reasons for Culpepper’s poor performance.

Culpepper completely blew out his knee in week 7 of the 2005 NFL season. It would normally take an athlete, according to medical specialists, a year and a half to fully recover from such an inury.

Culpepper came back in less than 10 months, fully participating in 2006 training camp drills with his new team the Miami Dolphins.

Big mistake. Culpepper only lasted 4 games. His base numbers weren’t terrible: 134 pass attempts, completion percentage 60.4 (good) yards per pass attempt 6.93 (good) only 3 interceptions (excellent). Certainly nothing to complain about.

However, two statistics were problematic for Culpepper in 2006: sacks and wins.

Sacks: In 4 starts as a Dolphin Culpepper was sacked 21 times. If you factor in that he only threw 134 passes, it comes out to 1 sack for every 6.38 pass attempts. There were 1161 sacks and 16,392 pass attempts. The ratio: a sack for every 14.11 pass attempts.

What does all this mean? It means that Culpepper was sacked twice as much as the average quarterback. Bad offensive line play may have been responsible for some of the sacks, but TWICE the league average. It can only mean one thing: IMMOBILE QUARTEBACK IS IN THE LINEUP.

Wins: The Dolphins were 1-3 in Culpepper’s 4 starts. Coupled with his 2-5 starter as Vikings QB in 2005, Culpepper went into the Raiders training camp having lost 8 of his previous 11 starts.

What about 2007? Culpepper has won 2 of his 5 starts, a reasonable record considering that the Raiders were 2-14 last year. Culpepper has a one year contract worth 3.2 million.

Culpepper can definitely still play in the NFL, even as a starter. However, it would have to be on a franchise which can surround him with a good running game, sound offensive line and an overall competitive team. This way Culpepper’s rapidly diminishing physical skills won’t be on display as much.

The Raiders won loss records since losing the Super Bowl in January 2003: 4-12, 5-11, 4-12, 2-14 and thus far in 2007, 2-6. The Raiders are not an “overall competitive team”

Let’s get back to Jamarcus Russell and the reasons he should be starting.

(a)Russell is a first pick overall with unlimited potential. This doesn’t mean anything, of course. Ryan Leaf had unlimited potential as well and how did that work out for the Chargers?
(b)The Raiders are getting no production from their current quarterbacks
(c)The Raiders are 2-6 and out of the playoff picture. If Russell ends up being a bust, start finding out now instead of later.
(d)There are no salary cap implications. Culpepper is not signed past 2007, so he comes off the books once the season ends.

There might be some readers who question why I wouldn’t support Daunte Culpepper starting for the Raiders but in turn support the Kansas City Chiefs for sticking with veteran Damon Huard. Aren’t the situations the same? Veteran quarterback supplanted by up and coming gunslinger?

The answer: the situations are not similar. The Chiefs are in a playoff race. They cannot afford to groom a quarterback when every game is an elimination game. Sticking with a veteran who avoids big mistakes is what will work best for the Chiefs. The Raiders, on the other hand, can throw caution to the wind, roll the dice and let the young QB Jamarcus learn on the field without the pressure of losing a big game.



Recommended Reading

Here are some columns that I recommend to all football fans.

(1)
Woody Paige, Denver Post “Broncos Lucky To Win 6 Games”
http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_7371401

If you want to know why the Broncos are struggling, read Woody.

(2)
Jason Whitlock, Kansas City Star “Chiefs Season Takes Another Strange Twist”
http://www.kansascity.com/sports/columnists/jason_whitlock/story/346905.html

From Priest to LJ, now perhaps the other way around.

(3)
Jim Souhan, Minneapolis Star Tribune “The Rookie Started Slowly But Oh What A Finish”
http://www.startribune.com/souhan/story/1528502.html


Sid Hartman, Minneapolis Star Tribune “It Goes Without Saying, This Kid Is Special”
http://www.startribune.com/507/story/1528511.html

I’ll bunch the above 2 columns together, since they are about the new Superman, Adrian Peterson.

And finally, more from the Minneapolis Star Tribune. This one is also written by Jim Souhan and it involves a certain coach and how he might find himself roaming the Vikings’ sideline very soon.

Jim Souhan, Minneapolis Star Tribune “San Diego Could Land Its Former Coach A Job Today”

http://www.startribune.com/souhan/story/1525444.html

Old Man River Has One Final Record To Break

Brett Favre has broken a few regular season records for quarterbacks this season.

Most Wins by a starting quarterback: Week 2 against the Giants
Most Pass Attempts by a quarterback: Week 3 against the Chargers
Most TD passes by a quarterback: Week 4 against the Vikings
Most Interceptions by a quarterback: Week 6 against the Redskins

Now circle your calendar for Sunday December 9th: Oakland at Green Bay

Why? Because Brett Favre is averaging 301 passing per game this season. If Favre continues this pace he will break Dan Marino’s career record of 61,361 passing yards against the Raiders on that day.

The Bills And The Saints: Something In Common

Let us go back to Week 5 in the NFL.

The Bills blew an 11 point 4th quarter lead at home to the Cowboys, falling to 1-4, seemingly done for the season.

The Saints blew a 7 point lead at home to the Carolina Panthers, falling to 0-4, seemingly done for the season.

Not so fast there.

Since Week 5, the Saints have won four straight and the Bills have won three straight. Both are now 4-4, right in the thick of the playoff race in their respective conferences.

And who the Bills and Saints play this weekend? The Bills play the 0-8 Dolphins and the Saints play the 0-8 Rams.

A perfect opportunity for both the Saints and Bills to finally get over the .500 mark.

That’s it for me. I’ll be back with my predictions for Week 10 on Saturday.

Predictions for Week 9 In the NFL

Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the team990.com

Just a small note to pass along: I’ll be posting my Week 9 thoughts on Tuesday afternoon instead of my usual Monday morning.

In my Week 9 post I’ll be answering some reader’s emails as well.

Last week I was 10-3, for an overall record of 35-19 (64.8%)

On to my predictions for Week 9 of the NFL.

Patriots defeat the Colts: The Pats will win this game but this will mean nothing come January should these teams meet in the AFC Playoffs. The Colts have proven they can win big games so being on the road will not affect them the way it once did.

Bills win against the Bengals: The Bengals are toast. Last week was a must win against the Steelers. They lost. They will be playing out the string while the Bills are in the thick of the playoff race in the AFC. Win here and they go to 4-4 with a road game against the 0-8 Dolphins next week. The Bills need this game badly.

Lions beat the Broncos: Does anyone realize that the Lions are 5-2 even though they cannot protect the quarterback, have a decent running game at best and are a finesse defense at best. However, they continue to win and are playing a Bronco team which has short week to prepare.
If this continues Jon Kitna will look very prescient in predicting a 10 win season.

Chiefs beat the Packers: The Packers, just like the Broncos, have a short week. The Packers are also playing at Arrowhead against a Chiefs team coming off a bye.

Chargers beat the Vikings: Head Coach Norv Turner has finally found the perfect formula in the Chargers three game winning streak: give LT as many touches as possible. The Vikings, on the other hand have not received any production from the quarterback position.

Jaguars beat the Saints: Jags waive Leftwich, Gerrard goes 4-2 as a starter. Gerrard goes down, untested Quinn Gray steps in to lead Jags to a 4th quarter comeback against Tampa Bay. Head Coach Jack Del Rio seems to either be a great decision maker or very lucky.

Redskins beat the Jets: An absolute must win for the Skins’ as I mentioned in my previous post. Big games coming up against the Eagles and Cowboys. 5-3 is imperative or else the season might be over.

Texans beat the Raiders: A must win for both teams. If the Raiders lose expect Jamarcus Russell to replace Culpepper as the starting QB.

Cardinals beat the Bucs: A week off for Arizona should be the kicker in this game.

Browns beat the Seahawks: If the Browns keep winning it will guarantee 2 things: Romeo Crennel returning for a 4th year as head coach and Quinn Brady continuing to hold a clipboard.

Cowboys beat the Eagles: How can the Eagles be prepared for this match when their head coach is going through hell on the homefront and the courts?

In other games
Falcons beat the 49ers, Titans over the Panthers, Steelers over the Ravens

That's it for me. Enjoy the games Sunday. I'll be back Tuesday with my analysis of all the action.