Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the team990.com
I got both games right today, making me 6-4 overall this playoff season. My Super Bowl blog will be updated every day starting next Saturday. I’ll be looking at previous Super Bowls and picking out important stats and plays. Be sure not miss my daily musings: they’ll definitely be informative.
Any comments or questions: email me at jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com
Let’s get down to business shall we?
NFC and AFC Championship Game Review
Giants 23 Packers 20 (overtime)
Why did the Giants win the game?
(A)Eli Manning did not turn the ball over
(B)The opening drive of the 3rd quarter: 3 3rd down conversions, 2 by penalty. Result of the drive: touchdown and 13-10 lead. Momentum swing.
(C)The running game: look at the second half numbers as regards the pass to run ratio.
The Giants came out in the second half determined to run the ball. The run would set up the passing plays.
By running the ball the Giants could (a) keep their defense off the field, (b)keep the Packer defense guessing and (c)use the Packer hesitation to allow Eli Manning to find his recievers down the field.
The numbers: Giants ran the ball 25 times and threw 19 times in the second half and overtime.
The Packers: 7 runs and 15 passes
The result was clear: by not running the ball and throwing incompletions as a result of Favre’s deteriorating play, the Packers ended their possessions early.
44 plays from scrimmage for the Giants, only 22 for Green Bay in the second half.
Is it any wonder that the Packer defense was missing tackles in crunch time? Perhaps they were tired?
The usual excuse for this kind of lopsided pass to run ratio is that a team has no choice but to throw the ball because they are trailing by more than one possession.
This does not apply to Green Bay however. They never trailed by more than 3 points in the second half.
Coach Mike McCarthy should have insisted on running the ball and forcing the Giants defense to stack the line of scrimmage to stop Ryan Grant. Instead McCarthy became one dimensional, which allowed the Giants defense to tee off on Favre.
Hopefully with experience, Mike McCarthy will improve in that aspect of his decision making.
Now on to the good stuff
Okay, is everytone going to stop criticizing Eli Manning? I’m waiting....waiting....still waiting.
Good. I stopped my yammering a few weeks ago when complaining about Peyton’s little brother was still in vogue.
As of tonight, it no longer is. I am no longer alone in my appreciation of Eli’s talents.
Question: since 1970, how many quarterbacks have led 4th quarter/overtime game winning drives in consecutive games in the PLAYOFFS? We’re talking playoffs here. Not regular season.
Answer: Only FIVE.
The list:
Jeff Hostetler 1990 vs San Francisco (NFC Title game) vs Buffalo (Super Bowl)
Joe Montana 1993 vs Pittsburgh (Wild Card) vs Houston (Division Round)
Stan Humphries 1994 vs Miami (Division Round) vs Pittsburgh (AFC Title game)
Kurt Warner 1999 vs Tampa Bay (NFC Title game) vs Tennessee (Super Bowl)
and now we add Eli Manning to the list. Last week against Dallas and tonight against the Packers.
You can say that Eli led the game winning drive three different times against Green Bay but I don’t want to hurt Lawrence Tynes’ feelings. He’s suffering enough and besides, he kicked the game winning field goal, so all is forgiven.
Just a side note concerning Eli Manning: that is the 6th game winning drive he has engineered this season, playoffs included.
In the regular season, Eli had four game winning 4th quarter drives, tied for the league lead with Jay Cutler, Brett Favre and Tom Brady.
Eli is growing up in a hurry.
Against Tampa Bay: 20 of 27 for 185 yards and 2 touchdowns
Against Dallas: 12 of 18 for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns
Against Green Bay: 21 of 40 for 254 yards
Notice that Eli has not turned the ball over in the playoffs. Quarterback rating: 99.2
Question: what about Brett Favre? Describe Favre’s numbers for us.
Answer: I’d rather not.
It’s not pleasant to criticize legends. After all, this might have been Favre’s last game.
However, here goes.
After the Packers took a 20-17 lead with 5 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter, Brett fell apart.
The numbers say it all: from the moment he found Donald Lee in the end zone in the 3rd quarter, Favre went 5 of 12 for 48 yards and two interceptions.
After Lawrence Tynes missed a 43 yard field goal with 6:49 left in the 4th quarter, Favre had THREE opportunities to take his team down the field for the go-ahead points.
How did Favre do in those three drives?
Not well. 2 of 6 for 12 yards and of course, the horrible interception in overtime.
Sad to say, but Favre is going to regret this loss.
This was Favre’s last, and in all likelihood, best chance of getting back to the Super Bowl.
We can talk all we want about how the Packers are young and can only improve but the harsh reality is that noone can predict the future.
Jacksonville was young and improving in 1996 when they just missed getting to the Super Bowl in only their second season. Everyone talked about how they were going to make it soon afterwards because of the experience they gained that season. The Jags never got to the Super Bowl.
In the NFL teams only get a certain amount of opportunities to get to the big dance.
As I’ve already written, Brett Favre blew his last, and best, chance.
Patriots 21 Chargers 12
Norv Turner did the best coaching job possible in not only getting his banged up team ready to face the powerhouse Patriots, but in getting his squad to keep the score close heading into the 4th quarter.
For this Turner deserves plenty of praise.
However, Norv Turner also deserves blame and I will explain why.
Situation: Chargers trail 21-12 with just under 10 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. Ball at the Patriot 36 yard line. 1st and 10.
Being in Patriot territory and needing two scores, the Chargers had to, at worst, move the ball into field goal territory and failing that, gamble on a potential 4th down play.
The Chargers did neither. Instead of using the running game to gain a few yards to make a first down more palatable, Turner had Philip Rivers throw three consecutive passes, all of which fell incomplete, forcing a 4th and 10 with 9:20 remaining.
What was the best option for Norv Turner? There was only one option. To go for it.
How many more possessions did Norv Turner think he’d get? One more, perhaps two with a bit of luck.
No. A punt was out of the question. Gambling was the best bet on 4th and 10 from the Patriot 36.
No gamble. The Chargers punted the football. Patriots took over on their own 13 with 9:13 left in the game.
The Chargers never saw the ball again. 15 plays by the Patriots ran the clock down to zero and the game was over.
Why did the Patriots win the game?
Very simple. 4 red zone possessions for the Chargers, 4 field goals.
When a team is a huge underdog it has to score touchdowns, not field goals.
Anyway I predicted that the Chargers would need to do 5 things to beat the Patriots.
(1)Plus 2 in the turnover department: Chargers were only a plus one
(2)Special teams touchdown: Chargers didn’t get it
(3)8 yards per pass attempt: Rivers averaged 5.70 (211 yards on 37 throws
(4)keep the Patriots under 50% on 3rd downs: almost, Pats were 7 of 13
(5)sack Brady 5 times: Brady went down twice
That’s it for me. I’ll be back with my Super Bowl blog, which I’ll update every day starting next Friday.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Conference Championship Game Previews
Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the team990.com
Last week I got the Saturday games right and the Sunday games wrong.
The week before that I got the AFC games right and the NFC games wrong.
At this pace I’ll get one of these games right and one of them wrong. I hope that is not the case.
Here we go.
Chargers at Patriots
There are certain facts that have to be looked at:
(1)the Chargers went through hell to beat the Titans and Colts: how much do they have left?
(2)the Chargers are a warm weather team: the temperature in Foxboro will be in the negative single digits
(3)Bill Belichick is 7-0 at home in the playoffs, 14-3 overall: Tom Brady is 13-2 as a starter
(4)Norv Turner is coaching against Bill Belichick
(5)Tight end Antonio Gates is injured, how effective will Gates be if he plays?
(6)Same thing for Ladainian Tomlinson: how effective will LT be?
(7)Philip Rivers has a partially torn MCL: if he plays how effective will Rivers be?
(8)
I’d love nothing more than watching the Chargers win this game, overcoming all the odds in a wonderful Cinderella story. It would be on the greatest upsets ever, on a par with the Jets Super Bowl III win over the Baltimore Colts.
A win by the Chargers would completely change the historical perception many people have of Norv Turner. At this moment his regular season record is 69-87-1, a .443 winning percentage.
In 10 seasons as a head coach, Turner has only two playoff appearances. Worse yet, aside from those playoff appearances, Turner has never gone into the final week of the season with a chance at the postseason. A terrible success ratio all around.
However, all that will be forgiven with a third consecutive win. Critics will stop looking at the raw totals and focus instead on the Super Bowl appearance, which is the ultimate goal in professional football.
However, having said all that, I cannot imagine a scenario which concludes with a Charger upset victory.
For the Chargers to win, they will need all of the following:
(a)a plus two turnover differential
(b)a special teams touchdown
©the Patriots must convert LESS than 50% of their 3rd down opportunities
(d)Chargers QB’s must have a yards per pass attempt of 8.00 or better: this will indicate that the Chargers can move the ball down the field effectively.
(e)Tom Brady must be sacked at least five times: this will indicate that the Chargers D is being effective
There you have it: 5 stats that have to go the Chargers way in order for them to win.
Do I want it to happen? Yes Will it happen? No
Injuries, fatigue, and unfortunately for Norv Turner, coaching, will enter the equation.
Final Score: Patriots 38 Chargers 13
Giants at Packers
Brett Favre in the Super Bowl for a third time, preferably against Tom Brady and the Patriots.
This would be a media dream. On one side you have the good ‘ole Southern boy, a man who has recently buried his father and brother in law, along with his wife being diagnosed with cancer. This good 'ole boy will be gunning for a second Super Bowl win, hoping for a John Elway like ride in the sunset.
On the other side, you have the pretty boy who impregnates a Hollywood starlet and dumps her for a world famous lingerie model. This pretty boy will be aiming for a 4th ring, tying him with Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana in the annals of history.
You couldn’t get more disparate personalities than that.
The ratings for a Patriots-Packers game would in all likelihood break every Nielsen ratings record for Super Bowls.
Okay, everything I’ve written is basic stuff. The question is: will it happen?
No.
The Packers season will end. The Giants will win.
Call it intuition in place of pragmatism.
A pragmatic person would notice factors such as the weather, injuries and the bye week and pick the Packers.
I think the Giants come out and run the ball very effectively, and as a result Eli Manning will be able to throw the ball in safe situations.
I also think that Brett Favre, for the first time this season, will make mistakes early that the Pack will not be able to overcome.
The Seahawks were unable to put away an early 14-0 lead: The Giants won’t make the same mistake.
Final Score: Giants 20 Packers 17
The result: we don’t get Favre-Brady, but we do get the next best thing: Brady-Manning. Eli, that is.
Last week I got the Saturday games right and the Sunday games wrong.
The week before that I got the AFC games right and the NFC games wrong.
At this pace I’ll get one of these games right and one of them wrong. I hope that is not the case.
Here we go.
Chargers at Patriots
There are certain facts that have to be looked at:
(1)the Chargers went through hell to beat the Titans and Colts: how much do they have left?
(2)the Chargers are a warm weather team: the temperature in Foxboro will be in the negative single digits
(3)Bill Belichick is 7-0 at home in the playoffs, 14-3 overall: Tom Brady is 13-2 as a starter
(4)Norv Turner is coaching against Bill Belichick
(5)Tight end Antonio Gates is injured, how effective will Gates be if he plays?
(6)Same thing for Ladainian Tomlinson: how effective will LT be?
(7)Philip Rivers has a partially torn MCL: if he plays how effective will Rivers be?
(8)
I’d love nothing more than watching the Chargers win this game, overcoming all the odds in a wonderful Cinderella story. It would be on the greatest upsets ever, on a par with the Jets Super Bowl III win over the Baltimore Colts.
A win by the Chargers would completely change the historical perception many people have of Norv Turner. At this moment his regular season record is 69-87-1, a .443 winning percentage.
In 10 seasons as a head coach, Turner has only two playoff appearances. Worse yet, aside from those playoff appearances, Turner has never gone into the final week of the season with a chance at the postseason. A terrible success ratio all around.
However, all that will be forgiven with a third consecutive win. Critics will stop looking at the raw totals and focus instead on the Super Bowl appearance, which is the ultimate goal in professional football.
However, having said all that, I cannot imagine a scenario which concludes with a Charger upset victory.
For the Chargers to win, they will need all of the following:
(a)a plus two turnover differential
(b)a special teams touchdown
©the Patriots must convert LESS than 50% of their 3rd down opportunities
(d)Chargers QB’s must have a yards per pass attempt of 8.00 or better: this will indicate that the Chargers can move the ball down the field effectively.
(e)Tom Brady must be sacked at least five times: this will indicate that the Chargers D is being effective
There you have it: 5 stats that have to go the Chargers way in order for them to win.
Do I want it to happen? Yes Will it happen? No
Injuries, fatigue, and unfortunately for Norv Turner, coaching, will enter the equation.
Final Score: Patriots 38 Chargers 13
Giants at Packers
Brett Favre in the Super Bowl for a third time, preferably against Tom Brady and the Patriots.
This would be a media dream. On one side you have the good ‘ole Southern boy, a man who has recently buried his father and brother in law, along with his wife being diagnosed with cancer. This good 'ole boy will be gunning for a second Super Bowl win, hoping for a John Elway like ride in the sunset.
On the other side, you have the pretty boy who impregnates a Hollywood starlet and dumps her for a world famous lingerie model. This pretty boy will be aiming for a 4th ring, tying him with Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana in the annals of history.
You couldn’t get more disparate personalities than that.
The ratings for a Patriots-Packers game would in all likelihood break every Nielsen ratings record for Super Bowls.
Okay, everything I’ve written is basic stuff. The question is: will it happen?
No.
The Packers season will end. The Giants will win.
Call it intuition in place of pragmatism.
A pragmatic person would notice factors such as the weather, injuries and the bye week and pick the Packers.
I think the Giants come out and run the ball very effectively, and as a result Eli Manning will be able to throw the ball in safe situations.
I also think that Brett Favre, for the first time this season, will make mistakes early that the Pack will not be able to overcome.
The Seahawks were unable to put away an early 14-0 lead: The Giants won’t make the same mistake.
Final Score: Giants 20 Packers 17
The result: we don’t get Favre-Brady, but we do get the next best thing: Brady-Manning. Eli, that is.
I'll be back with my review of the Championship Games on Monday.
Sunday, January 13, 2008
A Review of The Divisional Round
Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the team990.com
How about a pat on the back for yours truly, Jimmy G? Truly, I am a genius.
I predicted that the Patriots would beat the Jaguars by a score of 31-20.
What was the final score? 31-20 Patriots. I am too good.
How did I do overall? 2-2 once again. Okay that wasn’t so good.
Here are my thoughts regarding the wild weekend of NFL action.
Question: Should the Colts have kicked a field goal with 2:07 left in the 4th quarter trailing 28-24?
Answer: No way. They were on the 7 yard line. True they had all three timeouts and the two minute warning. However, a failed 4th down gamble wouldn’t hurt them so much as long as they forced a three and out. A three and out would give the Colts the ball back near their own 40 yard line at worst with 1:30 left on the clock and a timeout.
What happened? Exactly that. Three and out, Manning got the ball back with 1:30 left and one timeout. The only drawback is that Scifres punt was so good that the Colts started at their 32 yard line instead of closer to midfield.
Dungy was correct in going for it. A field goal to make the score 28-27 would have been useless if the Chargers (a)returned the ensuing kickoff near midfield or (b)gained a first down.
When a team has possession late and needs a touchdown, they have to gamble. Simple as that.
Question: Who was the biggest loser on Sunday?
Answer: I hate to use the word loser. Let’s rephrase the question. Who was the biggest non-winner on Sunday?
Answer: Tony Dungy
Dungy had everything going for him
(1)a week to prepare for a home game
(2)a man on the opposite sideline who was considered a great coordinator but a failure as a head coach, i.e. a disaster waiting to happen
(3)a lead in the 4th quarter
(4)an opponent that was missing, for the entire 4th quarter (a)their starting quarterback (b)their All Pro tight end and ©) their All-World running back
(5)an opponent that was stuck with Billy Volek. a serviceable backup quarterback in place of Philip Rivers at the most crucial time
(6)some very questionable calls that went FOR the Colts in the first 3 quarters, especially the holding call that negated Cromarties 84 yard interception return for a TD late in the first half
Yet...yet...yet...The Colts still lost. Imagine the defending Super Bowl champions blowing a fourth quarter lead to ...Billy Volek.
Question: How rare is it for the defending Super Bowl champion to blow a 4th quarter lead in the playoffs?
Answer: Very rare. On the 29 previous occasions when the defending champion has qualified for the playoffs, only twice has that team blown a 4th quarter lead.
Miami Dolphins in 1974 to Oakland
San Francisco 49ers in 1990 to the NY Giants
Make that 3 of 30 now that the Colts have joined the list
Question: Including playoffs, which quarterback has the most 4th quarter comebacks this season?
Answer: After today’s games the answer is Manning, Eli Manning, with 5. Can we show some love for the baby brother?
Question: Tony Dungy is a much better playoff coach than Tom Coughlin, right? Okay here’s the question.
Who has more Final Four appearances, Dungy or Coughlin?
Answer: Neither. They both have three. Regarding playoff legacies, Dungy is lucky to have won the Super Bowl last year. Without that Super Bowl, Dungy and Coughlin have more similarities than differences. Of course the Super Bowl is quite impressive on the resume but let’s dig deeper.
Playoff records: Coughlin 6-6, Dungy 9-9
Final Four Appearances: Coughlin 3, Dungy 3
I’ll write it one more time for all the critics out there: stop blasting Tom Coughlin.
Question: Okay we won’t criticize Tom Coughlin. We’ve already cricized Tony Dungy. Who else shall we criticize?
Answer: Wade Phillips. Phillips still hasn’t won a playoff game. After today’s loss to the Giants, Bum’s baby boy is now 0-4, having lost a playoff game with three different teams.
Question: Will Wade Phillips be back as Dallas head coach in 2008?
Answer: Tough to say. Jason Garrett will be offered the head coaching position in either Baltimore, Atlanta or Miami. If Garrett wants to leave, then Jerry Jones will be left with three choices.
Choice A: wish Garrett good luck and goodbye
Choice B: offer Garrett more money to stay as coordinator (similar to what Dan Snyder did with Gregg Williams after the 2005 season)
Choice C: fire Phillips and promote Garrett to head coach
Jerry Jones mentioned earlier this week that he has no intention of firing Wade Phillips after a 13-3 season. Of course, owners and general managers have made those statements during the season quite often, then turned around and fired the coach once the season ended. So Jones’ statement holds no factual or historical value.
Question: Who was the really big winner on Sunday?
Answer: Chargers GM A.J. Smith.
Lets look at the facts:
Fact 1: AJ Smith fired Marty Shottenheimer after going 14-2 in 2006. Smith was right to fire Marty but Smith was “wrong” to hire Norv Turner as his replacement: he of the 58-82-1 record in nine seasons. Smith should have fired Marty and hired either his offensive coordinator Cam Cameron or defensive coordinator Wade Phillips.
Fact 1 rebuked: Well, Turner has led the Chargers to a pair of playoff wins. Cam Cameron went 1-15 and was fired by the Dolphins. Wade Phillips lost his first playoff game with the Cowboys, dropping to 0-4 overall.
Fact 2: AJ Smith hired Ted Cottrell as his defensive coordinator after Wade Phillips left to become head coach of the Dallas Cowboys. Many, including myself thought this was a ridiculous hire.
Cottrell had been fired by the Bills in 2000 (along with head coach Wade Phillips, ooohh the irony) the Jets in 2003 and the Vikings in 2005. Hardly a resume that inspires confidence.
Fact 2 rebuked: Who’s laughing now? Cottrell’s defense stopped Peyton Manning twice in the final 5 minutes with the season on the line.
Fact 3: AJ Smith let Drew Brees sign with New Orleans last year. Big mistake. Brees responded by leading the Saints to the NFC Championship game. Brees was replaced by Phillip Rivers, who played poorly while losing to the Patriots in the divisional round.
Fact 3 rebuked: in 2007 Brees put up great numbers but finished 7-9. Rivers put up decent numbers in the regular season but has played brilliantly in two playoff wins: 33 of 49 for 556 yards and four touchdown passes. 11.34 yards per pass attempt. Think about that number. 11:34. It means that for every time Rivers drops back in the pocket, the Chargers can count on a first down. That is impressive.
Short term history will show that AJ Smith made the correct decision as regards the (a)head coach (b)defensive coordinator and (c)quarterback.
Question: Can the Chargers beat the Patriots next week?
Answer: Only if they receive the following
(A)clean bills of health for LT, Gates and Rivers
(B)Rivers can repeat his numbers from the last 2 weeks
(c)they have to get to Tom Brady at least 4 times
(d)they have to be a plus 2 in the turnover department
(e)special teams will have to produce great field position twice
That's way too many things that have to go the Chargers way.
I'll be back with my predictions blog for the AFC and NFC Championship games on Friday.
Jimmy
How about a pat on the back for yours truly, Jimmy G? Truly, I am a genius.
I predicted that the Patriots would beat the Jaguars by a score of 31-20.
What was the final score? 31-20 Patriots. I am too good.
How did I do overall? 2-2 once again. Okay that wasn’t so good.
Here are my thoughts regarding the wild weekend of NFL action.
Question: Should the Colts have kicked a field goal with 2:07 left in the 4th quarter trailing 28-24?
Answer: No way. They were on the 7 yard line. True they had all three timeouts and the two minute warning. However, a failed 4th down gamble wouldn’t hurt them so much as long as they forced a three and out. A three and out would give the Colts the ball back near their own 40 yard line at worst with 1:30 left on the clock and a timeout.
What happened? Exactly that. Three and out, Manning got the ball back with 1:30 left and one timeout. The only drawback is that Scifres punt was so good that the Colts started at their 32 yard line instead of closer to midfield.
Dungy was correct in going for it. A field goal to make the score 28-27 would have been useless if the Chargers (a)returned the ensuing kickoff near midfield or (b)gained a first down.
When a team has possession late and needs a touchdown, they have to gamble. Simple as that.
Question: Who was the biggest loser on Sunday?
Answer: I hate to use the word loser. Let’s rephrase the question. Who was the biggest non-winner on Sunday?
Answer: Tony Dungy
Dungy had everything going for him
(1)a week to prepare for a home game
(2)a man on the opposite sideline who was considered a great coordinator but a failure as a head coach, i.e. a disaster waiting to happen
(3)a lead in the 4th quarter
(4)an opponent that was missing, for the entire 4th quarter (a)their starting quarterback (b)their All Pro tight end and ©) their All-World running back
(5)an opponent that was stuck with Billy Volek. a serviceable backup quarterback in place of Philip Rivers at the most crucial time
(6)some very questionable calls that went FOR the Colts in the first 3 quarters, especially the holding call that negated Cromarties 84 yard interception return for a TD late in the first half
Yet...yet...yet...The Colts still lost. Imagine the defending Super Bowl champions blowing a fourth quarter lead to ...Billy Volek.
Question: How rare is it for the defending Super Bowl champion to blow a 4th quarter lead in the playoffs?
Answer: Very rare. On the 29 previous occasions when the defending champion has qualified for the playoffs, only twice has that team blown a 4th quarter lead.
Miami Dolphins in 1974 to Oakland
San Francisco 49ers in 1990 to the NY Giants
Make that 3 of 30 now that the Colts have joined the list
Question: Including playoffs, which quarterback has the most 4th quarter comebacks this season?
Answer: After today’s games the answer is Manning, Eli Manning, with 5. Can we show some love for the baby brother?
Question: Tony Dungy is a much better playoff coach than Tom Coughlin, right? Okay here’s the question.
Who has more Final Four appearances, Dungy or Coughlin?
Answer: Neither. They both have three. Regarding playoff legacies, Dungy is lucky to have won the Super Bowl last year. Without that Super Bowl, Dungy and Coughlin have more similarities than differences. Of course the Super Bowl is quite impressive on the resume but let’s dig deeper.
Playoff records: Coughlin 6-6, Dungy 9-9
Final Four Appearances: Coughlin 3, Dungy 3
I’ll write it one more time for all the critics out there: stop blasting Tom Coughlin.
Question: Okay we won’t criticize Tom Coughlin. We’ve already cricized Tony Dungy. Who else shall we criticize?
Answer: Wade Phillips. Phillips still hasn’t won a playoff game. After today’s loss to the Giants, Bum’s baby boy is now 0-4, having lost a playoff game with three different teams.
Question: Will Wade Phillips be back as Dallas head coach in 2008?
Answer: Tough to say. Jason Garrett will be offered the head coaching position in either Baltimore, Atlanta or Miami. If Garrett wants to leave, then Jerry Jones will be left with three choices.
Choice A: wish Garrett good luck and goodbye
Choice B: offer Garrett more money to stay as coordinator (similar to what Dan Snyder did with Gregg Williams after the 2005 season)
Choice C: fire Phillips and promote Garrett to head coach
Jerry Jones mentioned earlier this week that he has no intention of firing Wade Phillips after a 13-3 season. Of course, owners and general managers have made those statements during the season quite often, then turned around and fired the coach once the season ended. So Jones’ statement holds no factual or historical value.
Question: Who was the really big winner on Sunday?
Answer: Chargers GM A.J. Smith.
Lets look at the facts:
Fact 1: AJ Smith fired Marty Shottenheimer after going 14-2 in 2006. Smith was right to fire Marty but Smith was “wrong” to hire Norv Turner as his replacement: he of the 58-82-1 record in nine seasons. Smith should have fired Marty and hired either his offensive coordinator Cam Cameron or defensive coordinator Wade Phillips.
Fact 1 rebuked: Well, Turner has led the Chargers to a pair of playoff wins. Cam Cameron went 1-15 and was fired by the Dolphins. Wade Phillips lost his first playoff game with the Cowboys, dropping to 0-4 overall.
Fact 2: AJ Smith hired Ted Cottrell as his defensive coordinator after Wade Phillips left to become head coach of the Dallas Cowboys. Many, including myself thought this was a ridiculous hire.
Cottrell had been fired by the Bills in 2000 (along with head coach Wade Phillips, ooohh the irony) the Jets in 2003 and the Vikings in 2005. Hardly a resume that inspires confidence.
Fact 2 rebuked: Who’s laughing now? Cottrell’s defense stopped Peyton Manning twice in the final 5 minutes with the season on the line.
Fact 3: AJ Smith let Drew Brees sign with New Orleans last year. Big mistake. Brees responded by leading the Saints to the NFC Championship game. Brees was replaced by Phillip Rivers, who played poorly while losing to the Patriots in the divisional round.
Fact 3 rebuked: in 2007 Brees put up great numbers but finished 7-9. Rivers put up decent numbers in the regular season but has played brilliantly in two playoff wins: 33 of 49 for 556 yards and four touchdown passes. 11.34 yards per pass attempt. Think about that number. 11:34. It means that for every time Rivers drops back in the pocket, the Chargers can count on a first down. That is impressive.
Short term history will show that AJ Smith made the correct decision as regards the (a)head coach (b)defensive coordinator and (c)quarterback.
Question: Can the Chargers beat the Patriots next week?
Answer: Only if they receive the following
(A)clean bills of health for LT, Gates and Rivers
(B)Rivers can repeat his numbers from the last 2 weeks
(c)they have to get to Tom Brady at least 4 times
(d)they have to be a plus 2 in the turnover department
(e)special teams will have to produce great field position twice
That's way too many things that have to go the Chargers way.
I'll be back with my predictions blog for the AFC and NFC Championship games on Friday.
Jimmy
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Predictions for Divisional Playoff Round
Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the team990.com
In the Wild Card round I got both AFC games right, and both NFC games wrong.
Well here we go.
Divisional Playoffs
Jaguars at Patriots
Look. I’d love to take the Jags in an upset. I really would.
However, there are two stats people are not mentioning.
Bill Belichick is 7-0 in the playoffs at home.
Bill Belichick is 5-0 when the Patriots have a bye week in the playoffs (including Super Bowls 2003 and 2004)
I write this because whenever Belichick has time to prepare, he finds success, or success finds him.
A couple of other facts to consider when looking at the 16-0 Patriots
Were the Patriots a come from behind team?
You bet. Tom Brady led FOUR 4th quarter comebacks in 2007, tying him for the league lead with his famous contemporary Manning.
Wait. Rewind. Brady’s four 4th quarter comeback wins tied him with ELI Manning, not Peyton.
Did the Patriots protect Tom Brady in the pocket?
You bet. The Patriots allowed only 21 sacks in 2007, fifth best in the NFL.
The top four: Saints (16) Bengals (17) Browns and Packers (19)
How efficient was the Patriots passing game?
The best in the league. Forget the raw totals, it is the average gain per dropback that counts.
Patriot quarterbacks dropped back in the pocket 607 times and gained 4731 yards, an average of 7.79 yards per passing play.
2nd place: Dallas 7.38
3rd place: Green Bay 7.26
Original Prediction in my Entire Playoff Preview : Patriots 31 Jaguars 20. Nothing has changed.
Again, I’d love to pick the Jags because they can run the ball, they can stop the run, get to the quarterback and they have a quarterback who doesn’t turn the ball over.
If the Patriots didn’t have a week off I’d have picked Jacksonville.
Giants at Cowboys
If you read the Pats Jags post, you’ll know that Eli Manning led the Giants to a 4th quarter comeback victory four times this season: tied with Tom Brady for the league lead. Just something to keep in mind when you watch Eli struggle in the first half.
That week off the Cowboys had is the main reason I am picking them. True it is difficult for any team to defeat a division opponent 3 times in a season but while I think Eli is progressing nicely, he’ll have to wait another year.
I am positive that Tony Sparano and Jason Garrett, who have been interviewed by multiple teams for head coaching positions, will have their units prepared for this game. Consider it an audition tape for the owners of the Dolphins, Ravens and Falcons.
Prediction: Cowboys 31 Redskins 14: obviously the Skins lost so now I have to make another prediction: Cowboys 31 Giants 14.
Seahawks at Packers
The Seahawks are what can be called a paper tiger. They have made the playoffs five years in a row. Why? Look at their schedule.
This season, the Seahawks had the easiest schedule in football: their opponents had an adjusted combined record of 100-140
Last season, they had the third easiest schedule in the NFL: 109-131, slightly behind Atlanta and Chicago
In 2005, when they went to the Super Bowl, the Seahawks had the easiest schedule in the NFL: 107-133
In 2004, the Seahawks had the second easiest schedule in the NFL: 107-133, one game back of Atlanta.
That’s four consecutive playoff appearances aided greatly by the fact that their schedule is incredibly easy.
I cannot understand why Mike Holmgren would even consider retiring when a playoff appearance is his for the taking, year after year after........
Prediction stays the same as it was in my Entire Playoff Preview, except I have to replace Tampa Bay with Seattle: Packers 30 Seahawks 10
Bret Favre will get another playoff win, making him 12-9 for his career in the postseason. Matt Hasselback will try to get over the .500 mark: currently he is 4-4 for his playoff career.
Prediction: Green Bay 30 Seahawks 10
Chargers at Colts
When I think of this game I think of Tony Dungy’s playoff legacy. Yes, Dungy has his Super Bowl win which eliminates him from the “best coach never to win a Super Bowl” sweepstakes.
However, one thing still bothers me: Dungy only has three FINAL FOUR appearances.
That’s right: in his nine previous playoff appearances Dungy has made the AFC or NFC Championship game three times: 1999 versus the Saint Louis Rams, 2003 and 2006 versus the New England Patriots.
Just to compare, unfavorable though it may be: Marty Shottenheimer and Chuck Knox had three FINAL FOUR appearances each during their respective careers.
If the Colts lose to the San Diego Chargers, that will deal a severe blow to Tony Dungy’s legacy, especially if the rumors of him resigning are true.
By the same token, another playoff win would do wonders for Norv Turner’s reputation.
Face facts: an 11-5 season is great for Turner, how could it not be? Turner’s first nine seasons as a head coach: 58-82-1 with just one playoff appearance. So in 2007, anything close to .500 would have been an improvement.
Okay so the Chargers beat the Titans in the wild card game, giving Turner a 2-1 career post season record. But Sunday’s game against the Colts will determine whether Turner can change the perception people have of him: excellent coordinator with limited motivational skills leading to an inability to properly harness a team’s talent level.
Win and the critics will shut up.
I don’t see Philip Rivers duplicating the success he had against the Colts. With an extra week to prepare and an extra week to rest the Colts should be ready both physically and mentally for anything and everything the Chargers.
Orginal Prediction stays: Colts 28 Chargers 10
I’ll be back on Monday with a rundown of the Divisional Playoffs plus predictions for the Conference Championships.
In the Wild Card round I got both AFC games right, and both NFC games wrong.
Well here we go.
Divisional Playoffs
Jaguars at Patriots
Look. I’d love to take the Jags in an upset. I really would.
However, there are two stats people are not mentioning.
Bill Belichick is 7-0 in the playoffs at home.
Bill Belichick is 5-0 when the Patriots have a bye week in the playoffs (including Super Bowls 2003 and 2004)
I write this because whenever Belichick has time to prepare, he finds success, or success finds him.
A couple of other facts to consider when looking at the 16-0 Patriots
Were the Patriots a come from behind team?
You bet. Tom Brady led FOUR 4th quarter comebacks in 2007, tying him for the league lead with his famous contemporary Manning.
Wait. Rewind. Brady’s four 4th quarter comeback wins tied him with ELI Manning, not Peyton.
Did the Patriots protect Tom Brady in the pocket?
You bet. The Patriots allowed only 21 sacks in 2007, fifth best in the NFL.
The top four: Saints (16) Bengals (17) Browns and Packers (19)
How efficient was the Patriots passing game?
The best in the league. Forget the raw totals, it is the average gain per dropback that counts.
Patriot quarterbacks dropped back in the pocket 607 times and gained 4731 yards, an average of 7.79 yards per passing play.
2nd place: Dallas 7.38
3rd place: Green Bay 7.26
Original Prediction in my Entire Playoff Preview : Patriots 31 Jaguars 20. Nothing has changed.
Again, I’d love to pick the Jags because they can run the ball, they can stop the run, get to the quarterback and they have a quarterback who doesn’t turn the ball over.
If the Patriots didn’t have a week off I’d have picked Jacksonville.
Giants at Cowboys
If you read the Pats Jags post, you’ll know that Eli Manning led the Giants to a 4th quarter comeback victory four times this season: tied with Tom Brady for the league lead. Just something to keep in mind when you watch Eli struggle in the first half.
That week off the Cowboys had is the main reason I am picking them. True it is difficult for any team to defeat a division opponent 3 times in a season but while I think Eli is progressing nicely, he’ll have to wait another year.
I am positive that Tony Sparano and Jason Garrett, who have been interviewed by multiple teams for head coaching positions, will have their units prepared for this game. Consider it an audition tape for the owners of the Dolphins, Ravens and Falcons.
Prediction: Cowboys 31 Redskins 14: obviously the Skins lost so now I have to make another prediction: Cowboys 31 Giants 14.
Seahawks at Packers
The Seahawks are what can be called a paper tiger. They have made the playoffs five years in a row. Why? Look at their schedule.
This season, the Seahawks had the easiest schedule in football: their opponents had an adjusted combined record of 100-140
Last season, they had the third easiest schedule in the NFL: 109-131, slightly behind Atlanta and Chicago
In 2005, when they went to the Super Bowl, the Seahawks had the easiest schedule in the NFL: 107-133
In 2004, the Seahawks had the second easiest schedule in the NFL: 107-133, one game back of Atlanta.
That’s four consecutive playoff appearances aided greatly by the fact that their schedule is incredibly easy.
I cannot understand why Mike Holmgren would even consider retiring when a playoff appearance is his for the taking, year after year after........
Prediction stays the same as it was in my Entire Playoff Preview, except I have to replace Tampa Bay with Seattle: Packers 30 Seahawks 10
Bret Favre will get another playoff win, making him 12-9 for his career in the postseason. Matt Hasselback will try to get over the .500 mark: currently he is 4-4 for his playoff career.
Prediction: Green Bay 30 Seahawks 10
Chargers at Colts
When I think of this game I think of Tony Dungy’s playoff legacy. Yes, Dungy has his Super Bowl win which eliminates him from the “best coach never to win a Super Bowl” sweepstakes.
However, one thing still bothers me: Dungy only has three FINAL FOUR appearances.
That’s right: in his nine previous playoff appearances Dungy has made the AFC or NFC Championship game three times: 1999 versus the Saint Louis Rams, 2003 and 2006 versus the New England Patriots.
Just to compare, unfavorable though it may be: Marty Shottenheimer and Chuck Knox had three FINAL FOUR appearances each during their respective careers.
If the Colts lose to the San Diego Chargers, that will deal a severe blow to Tony Dungy’s legacy, especially if the rumors of him resigning are true.
By the same token, another playoff win would do wonders for Norv Turner’s reputation.
Face facts: an 11-5 season is great for Turner, how could it not be? Turner’s first nine seasons as a head coach: 58-82-1 with just one playoff appearance. So in 2007, anything close to .500 would have been an improvement.
Okay so the Chargers beat the Titans in the wild card game, giving Turner a 2-1 career post season record. But Sunday’s game against the Colts will determine whether Turner can change the perception people have of him: excellent coordinator with limited motivational skills leading to an inability to properly harness a team’s talent level.
Win and the critics will shut up.
I don’t see Philip Rivers duplicating the success he had against the Colts. With an extra week to prepare and an extra week to rest the Colts should be ready both physically and mentally for anything and everything the Chargers.
Orginal Prediction stays: Colts 28 Chargers 10
I’ll be back on Monday with a rundown of the Divisional Playoffs plus predictions for the Conference Championships.
Monday, January 7, 2008
Wild Card Weekend Roundup
Welcome back to my blog, Touchdowns and Kicks. Here is my rundown from the 4 games just completed in the NFL Wild Card Round.
Seattle 35 Washington 14
Mike Holmgren has blown 4th quarter leads in a playoff game six times
1995 vs Dallas: led 27-24, lost 38-27
1998 vs San Francisco: led 27-23, lost 30-27
1999 vs Miami: led 17-13, lost 20-17
2003 vs Green Bay: led 20-13, lost 33-30 in overtime
2004 vs Saint Louis: led 20-17, lost 27-20
2006 vs Chicago: led 24-21, lost 27-24 in overtime
As for Joe Gibbs, his Washington Redskins have never blown a 4th quarter in a playoff game.
So which coach would find a way to lose the game, based on history? Holmgren, of course.
Well, history took a back seat on Saturday. It was the Skins and Joe Gibbs who found a way to snatch defeat from the hands of victory at the most crucial time.
BIG PLAY (S) OF THE GAME
I don’t think the biggest play of the game was the missed 30 yard field goal that would have made the score 17-13 with 11:37 remaining in the 4th quarter. Not at all.
If the kick was good the Seahawks would have been trailing by 4 points instead of 1 point, still a one possession game, with plenty of time on the clock.
And do not forget the result of the missed field goal: Matt Hasselback was intercepted on the following drive. So no points were lost as a result, and it was still a one possession game regardless.
No I think the biggest plays were the three plays following the kick recovery, not the missed field goal that resulted.
Rewind: The Skins had just scored to take the lead 14-13. The Seahawks mess up the kickoff and the Skins had the ball on the 9 yard line.
Now, keep in mind that a Skins touchdown would have made the score 21-13, keeping the game within one possession.
Whatever the strategy was, the Skins needed a touchdown to really put the screws into the Seahawks. They didn’t get it. And that was the game.
Jacksonville 31 Pittsburgh 29
The biggest play of the game was the same for both teams, but for different reasons.
4th and 2 from the Steeler 43 yard line, 1:56 remaining, Steelers lead 29-28. Steelers have all three timeouts, Jags have none. If the Jags don’t get a first down, GAME OVER.
Result: David Garrard quarterback draw all the way to the 11 yard line, keeping the Jags final drive alive.
Okay, the Jags are now well within field goal range: that was their biggest play. The whistle stops the play at 1:48, play clock rest to 40.
Garrard’s scramble was also the Steelers’ biggest play, but for opposite reasons of course: Clock management.
1:47, 1:46, 1:45, 1:44, the clock kept ticking. 1:43, 1:42 and ticking...
Why didn’t coach Mike Tomlin call a timeout? It was the simplest decision he could make.
The Steelers had all three timeouts left.
The Jags had none and they were already in field goal range. You can bet your last dollar that they were not going to hurry to the line of scrimmage to run a play until all 40 seconds on the play clock expired.
Tomlin’s strategy at this point was simple: call your first timeout immediately, stopping the clock with 1:48 left. Using the theory that Jacksonville would run the ball three times (with two more clock stoppages to come) Tomlin could expect his offense to get back on the field with about 40-45 seconds remaining and no timeouts.
A great situation for Pittsburgh? Not really. But 45 seconds is much better than 30 seconds.
1:41, 1:40, 1:39...still not timeout called.
Now, after wasting a full 10 seconds on the clock, the Steelers should have used their timeouts after the next snap. No use calling a timeout after you’ve already lost 10 seconds. That ship had sailed.
So Mike Tomlin made a mistake by not calling his first timeout at 1:48. He’d have to use them on the next three snaps. He’d still get the ball back with about 40-45 seconds remaining.
And then it happened. The Steelers called timeout with 1:36 remaining. TWELVE SECONDS LATE.
Why? After twelve seconds elapsed, the decision was made for you: wait until the next snap to call your timeouts. The Jags are going to run the ball anyways, forcing you to stop the clock.
What did calling the timeout with 1:36 remaining do? It completely changed the complexion of the Steelers final drive. By waiting to call a timeout after the first down snap Big Ben would have had 40-45 seconds left to move the ball down the field for a game winning field goal attempt, now Big Ben would be left with, at most 30 seconds to move the ball.
End result: Steelers got the ball back with 29 seconds left on their own 28 yard line. No timeouts. Ben sacked on first play, fumble, Jag recovery. Game over.
Another question: why did Mike Tomlin decide to go for 2 after the Steelers cut the lead to 28-23 early in the 4th quarter? Still too early I thought and if they failed and the Jags kicked a field goal later on, the spread would have been 8, and there was plenty of time on the clock.
The decision to go for 2 was wrong I thought, but it didn’t matter. On the 2 point play (which worked) the Steelers were flagged for holding, putting the ball back to the 12 yard line. At this point, the Steelers should have kicked the extra point.
Why go for 2 from the 12 yard line on what is essentially a 4th and goal play? Well they did, play failed and as a result they ended up going for 2 when they scored a touchdown on their next drive to compensate. Failed again, opening the door for one Jag drive which needed a field goal to win, not tie.
Had the Steelers kicked extra points on their two 4th quarter touchdowns, the Jags would have trailed by 3 instead of one.
Chargers 17 Titans 6
The game turned when Rob Bironas missed a 38 yard field goal that would have made the score 10-9 with just over 14 minutes left in the 4th quarter.
If the score was 10-9 then the Titans would have been guaranteed a chance to tie the game on their next drive at the very least, even if the Chargers went down the field to score a touchdown, which is what happened: subsequent Charger drive went 72 yards in 12 plays for a 17-6 lead.
At this point the game was over because there was no way the Titans were going to go down the field twice with 8:45 remaining. Why? Vince Young’s passing stats. Young threw 29 passes for 138 yards and was sacked three times for nine yards.
Yards per pass play, as I have written on many occasions, is a telling statistic because it indicates how quickly a team can go down the field. The Titans passing offense versus the Chargers: 32 dropbacks for 129 yards, an average of 4.03 yards per pass play.
Giants 24 Bucs 14
Notice that Eli Manning and Philip Rivers won playoff games on the same day. They were traded for each other on Draft Day 2004.
Not much else to say about this game. I fell asleep and woke up just in time for the Titans Chargers clash.
I'll be back Friday with my look at the Divisional Round.
Jimmy G
Seattle 35 Washington 14
Mike Holmgren has blown 4th quarter leads in a playoff game six times
1995 vs Dallas: led 27-24, lost 38-27
1998 vs San Francisco: led 27-23, lost 30-27
1999 vs Miami: led 17-13, lost 20-17
2003 vs Green Bay: led 20-13, lost 33-30 in overtime
2004 vs Saint Louis: led 20-17, lost 27-20
2006 vs Chicago: led 24-21, lost 27-24 in overtime
As for Joe Gibbs, his Washington Redskins have never blown a 4th quarter in a playoff game.
So which coach would find a way to lose the game, based on history? Holmgren, of course.
Well, history took a back seat on Saturday. It was the Skins and Joe Gibbs who found a way to snatch defeat from the hands of victory at the most crucial time.
BIG PLAY (S) OF THE GAME
I don’t think the biggest play of the game was the missed 30 yard field goal that would have made the score 17-13 with 11:37 remaining in the 4th quarter. Not at all.
If the kick was good the Seahawks would have been trailing by 4 points instead of 1 point, still a one possession game, with plenty of time on the clock.
And do not forget the result of the missed field goal: Matt Hasselback was intercepted on the following drive. So no points were lost as a result, and it was still a one possession game regardless.
No I think the biggest plays were the three plays following the kick recovery, not the missed field goal that resulted.
Rewind: The Skins had just scored to take the lead 14-13. The Seahawks mess up the kickoff and the Skins had the ball on the 9 yard line.
Now, keep in mind that a Skins touchdown would have made the score 21-13, keeping the game within one possession.
Whatever the strategy was, the Skins needed a touchdown to really put the screws into the Seahawks. They didn’t get it. And that was the game.
Jacksonville 31 Pittsburgh 29
The biggest play of the game was the same for both teams, but for different reasons.
4th and 2 from the Steeler 43 yard line, 1:56 remaining, Steelers lead 29-28. Steelers have all three timeouts, Jags have none. If the Jags don’t get a first down, GAME OVER.
Result: David Garrard quarterback draw all the way to the 11 yard line, keeping the Jags final drive alive.
Okay, the Jags are now well within field goal range: that was their biggest play. The whistle stops the play at 1:48, play clock rest to 40.
Garrard’s scramble was also the Steelers’ biggest play, but for opposite reasons of course: Clock management.
1:47, 1:46, 1:45, 1:44, the clock kept ticking. 1:43, 1:42 and ticking...
Why didn’t coach Mike Tomlin call a timeout? It was the simplest decision he could make.
The Steelers had all three timeouts left.
The Jags had none and they were already in field goal range. You can bet your last dollar that they were not going to hurry to the line of scrimmage to run a play until all 40 seconds on the play clock expired.
Tomlin’s strategy at this point was simple: call your first timeout immediately, stopping the clock with 1:48 left. Using the theory that Jacksonville would run the ball three times (with two more clock stoppages to come) Tomlin could expect his offense to get back on the field with about 40-45 seconds remaining and no timeouts.
A great situation for Pittsburgh? Not really. But 45 seconds is much better than 30 seconds.
1:41, 1:40, 1:39...still not timeout called.
Now, after wasting a full 10 seconds on the clock, the Steelers should have used their timeouts after the next snap. No use calling a timeout after you’ve already lost 10 seconds. That ship had sailed.
So Mike Tomlin made a mistake by not calling his first timeout at 1:48. He’d have to use them on the next three snaps. He’d still get the ball back with about 40-45 seconds remaining.
And then it happened. The Steelers called timeout with 1:36 remaining. TWELVE SECONDS LATE.
Why? After twelve seconds elapsed, the decision was made for you: wait until the next snap to call your timeouts. The Jags are going to run the ball anyways, forcing you to stop the clock.
What did calling the timeout with 1:36 remaining do? It completely changed the complexion of the Steelers final drive. By waiting to call a timeout after the first down snap Big Ben would have had 40-45 seconds left to move the ball down the field for a game winning field goal attempt, now Big Ben would be left with, at most 30 seconds to move the ball.
End result: Steelers got the ball back with 29 seconds left on their own 28 yard line. No timeouts. Ben sacked on first play, fumble, Jag recovery. Game over.
Another question: why did Mike Tomlin decide to go for 2 after the Steelers cut the lead to 28-23 early in the 4th quarter? Still too early I thought and if they failed and the Jags kicked a field goal later on, the spread would have been 8, and there was plenty of time on the clock.
The decision to go for 2 was wrong I thought, but it didn’t matter. On the 2 point play (which worked) the Steelers were flagged for holding, putting the ball back to the 12 yard line. At this point, the Steelers should have kicked the extra point.
Why go for 2 from the 12 yard line on what is essentially a 4th and goal play? Well they did, play failed and as a result they ended up going for 2 when they scored a touchdown on their next drive to compensate. Failed again, opening the door for one Jag drive which needed a field goal to win, not tie.
Had the Steelers kicked extra points on their two 4th quarter touchdowns, the Jags would have trailed by 3 instead of one.
Chargers 17 Titans 6
The game turned when Rob Bironas missed a 38 yard field goal that would have made the score 10-9 with just over 14 minutes left in the 4th quarter.
If the score was 10-9 then the Titans would have been guaranteed a chance to tie the game on their next drive at the very least, even if the Chargers went down the field to score a touchdown, which is what happened: subsequent Charger drive went 72 yards in 12 plays for a 17-6 lead.
At this point the game was over because there was no way the Titans were going to go down the field twice with 8:45 remaining. Why? Vince Young’s passing stats. Young threw 29 passes for 138 yards and was sacked three times for nine yards.
Yards per pass play, as I have written on many occasions, is a telling statistic because it indicates how quickly a team can go down the field. The Titans passing offense versus the Chargers: 32 dropbacks for 129 yards, an average of 4.03 yards per pass play.
Giants 24 Bucs 14
Notice that Eli Manning and Philip Rivers won playoff games on the same day. They were traded for each other on Draft Day 2004.
Not much else to say about this game. I fell asleep and woke up just in time for the Titans Chargers clash.
I'll be back Friday with my look at the Divisional Round.
Jimmy G
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Predictions for Entire Playoffs
Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with JimmyG on the team990.com
How did I do with my predictions during the regular season?
110-65 (62.9%)
So here we go. I’ll predict this weekends games as well as the entire playoffs.
Wild Card Round Preview and Playoff Predictions
Redskins at Seahawks
Joe Gibbs has opened the playoffs on the road FOUR TIMES. He and the Skins are 4-0.
Prior to this season, Joe Gibbs has been in the playoffs NINE times. On only one occasion (1984 vs Chicago) have the Skins lost their first playoff game. In other words, Gibbs is 8-1 opening the playoffs.
Joe Gibbs has beaten FIVE Super Bowl winning coaches in the playoffs. And by that I mean coaches who had Super Bowl wins at the time of the game, not retroactively.
Who are they? Tom Landry and Don Shula (1982) Bill Walsh (1983) Mike Ditka (1986 and 1987) Jon Gruden (2005)
Who does Joe Gibbs face in the wild card round? Mike Holmgren, a Super Bowl winning coach from 1996 with the Packers.
Joe Gibbs has also beaten THREE coaches who had, at one point, reached the Super Bowl and lost: Bud Grant (1982) Dan Reeves (1987) and Marvin Levy (1991)
Bottom line: Joe Gibbs has three Super Bowl wins and a 17-6 record in the playoffs.
Let’s look at Mike Holmgren for a moment. You’d think that this would be a coaching mismatch, but it really isn’t.
Holmgren has beaten three Super Bowl winning coaches in his playoff career: George Siefert (1995 and 1996) Bill Parcells (1996 and 2006) and who else, Joe Gibbs (2005)
In fact, if Seattle beats Washington on Saturday, Holmgren would have defeated three Super Bowl winning coaches twice each.
Final Score: Skins 24 Seahawks 20
Jaguars at Steelers
One stat that jumps out for this match is yards per pass play. Yards per pass play is calculated by taking yards passing, minus the sack yards, and divide them into the amount of times the quarterback drops back into the pocket. This stat is very telling, because it indicates how quickly a team can go down the field.
You would think that the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger would have a better passing offense than the Jags: Jacksonville is known as a running team, what else would you think?
Well, you’d be wrong. The Jags averaged 6.67 yards every time their quarterback dropped back in the pocket . Only teams finished ahead of the Jaguars in this category:
New England 7.77 (4711/606)
Dallas 7.37 ( 4103/557)
Green Bay 7.26 (4336/597)
Indianapolis 7.02 (4032/574)
Houston 6.81 (3751/551)
Cincinnati 6.78 (4011/592)
The Steelers: they averaged 6.28 yards per pass play, 14th in the league.
Bottom line: the Jags can throw the ball down the field as well as run the ball. The simple reason is that with defenses stacking the line of scrimmage to stop the run, David Garrard has recievers running patterns with one on one coverage.
Final Score: Jaguars 27 Steelers 14
Titans at Chargers
If Kerry Collins starts this game, he’d be the fourth quarterback to start a playoff game for THREE different teams. See the next item for more information.
Norv Turner is someone I simply do not trust in a big game situation. If you were going to fire Marty Shottenheimer because he was a playoff failure, wouldn’t you have picked anyone but Norv Turner as a replacement?
Turner was, heading into the 2007 season, 58-82-1 in nine full seasons as a head coach with Washington and Oakland. Turner had only one playoff appearance to his credit in those nine seasons, and on only one other occasion did his team even have a chance of making the playoffs on the last week of the season.
Can one exceptional 11-5 season erase a reputation that is based on nine years of futility? Norv Turner better hope so.
Final Score: Chargers 28 Titans 10
Giants at Buccaneers
Jeff Garcia, history maker?
Only two quarterbacks have ever started a playoff game for three different teams.
Brad Johnson (Minnesota, Washington and Tampa Bay)
David Krieg (Seattle, Kansas City and Detroit)
If Garcia starts on Sunday against the Giants, he’d be the third or fourth (Tennessee’s Kerry Collins might also join the list, depending on Vince Young’s health)
Where might history be made? Neither Johnson or Krieg won playoff games with all three teams. (Krieg failed with Detroit, Johnson with Washington)
Garcia beat the Giants while with the 49ers (2002) and while with the Eagles last season.
Unfortunately for the Giants, the headline on Monday morning will read as follows: “Giants fall short, Coughlin and Eli 0-3 in the playoffs”
Final Score: Bucs 17 Giants 14
Complete Playoff Predictions
Here is what I think will happen over the next four weeks
Next week
Patriots 31 Jaguars 20
Colts 28 Chargers 10
Cowboys 31 Redskins 14
Packers 30 Bucs 10
AFC Title Game: Patriots 24 Colts 10
NFC Title Game: Cowboys 27 Packers 17
Super Bowl: Patriots 35 Cowboys 24
I'll be back Tuesday with more on the NFL Playoffs.
How did I do with my predictions during the regular season?
110-65 (62.9%)
So here we go. I’ll predict this weekends games as well as the entire playoffs.
Wild Card Round Preview and Playoff Predictions
Redskins at Seahawks
Joe Gibbs has opened the playoffs on the road FOUR TIMES. He and the Skins are 4-0.
Prior to this season, Joe Gibbs has been in the playoffs NINE times. On only one occasion (1984 vs Chicago) have the Skins lost their first playoff game. In other words, Gibbs is 8-1 opening the playoffs.
Joe Gibbs has beaten FIVE Super Bowl winning coaches in the playoffs. And by that I mean coaches who had Super Bowl wins at the time of the game, not retroactively.
Who are they? Tom Landry and Don Shula (1982) Bill Walsh (1983) Mike Ditka (1986 and 1987) Jon Gruden (2005)
Who does Joe Gibbs face in the wild card round? Mike Holmgren, a Super Bowl winning coach from 1996 with the Packers.
Joe Gibbs has also beaten THREE coaches who had, at one point, reached the Super Bowl and lost: Bud Grant (1982) Dan Reeves (1987) and Marvin Levy (1991)
Bottom line: Joe Gibbs has three Super Bowl wins and a 17-6 record in the playoffs.
Let’s look at Mike Holmgren for a moment. You’d think that this would be a coaching mismatch, but it really isn’t.
Holmgren has beaten three Super Bowl winning coaches in his playoff career: George Siefert (1995 and 1996) Bill Parcells (1996 and 2006) and who else, Joe Gibbs (2005)
In fact, if Seattle beats Washington on Saturday, Holmgren would have defeated three Super Bowl winning coaches twice each.
Final Score: Skins 24 Seahawks 20
Jaguars at Steelers
One stat that jumps out for this match is yards per pass play. Yards per pass play is calculated by taking yards passing, minus the sack yards, and divide them into the amount of times the quarterback drops back into the pocket. This stat is very telling, because it indicates how quickly a team can go down the field.
You would think that the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger would have a better passing offense than the Jags: Jacksonville is known as a running team, what else would you think?
Well, you’d be wrong. The Jags averaged 6.67 yards every time their quarterback dropped back in the pocket . Only teams finished ahead of the Jaguars in this category:
New England 7.77 (4711/606)
Dallas 7.37 ( 4103/557)
Green Bay 7.26 (4336/597)
Indianapolis 7.02 (4032/574)
Houston 6.81 (3751/551)
Cincinnati 6.78 (4011/592)
The Steelers: they averaged 6.28 yards per pass play, 14th in the league.
Bottom line: the Jags can throw the ball down the field as well as run the ball. The simple reason is that with defenses stacking the line of scrimmage to stop the run, David Garrard has recievers running patterns with one on one coverage.
Final Score: Jaguars 27 Steelers 14
Titans at Chargers
If Kerry Collins starts this game, he’d be the fourth quarterback to start a playoff game for THREE different teams. See the next item for more information.
Norv Turner is someone I simply do not trust in a big game situation. If you were going to fire Marty Shottenheimer because he was a playoff failure, wouldn’t you have picked anyone but Norv Turner as a replacement?
Turner was, heading into the 2007 season, 58-82-1 in nine full seasons as a head coach with Washington and Oakland. Turner had only one playoff appearance to his credit in those nine seasons, and on only one other occasion did his team even have a chance of making the playoffs on the last week of the season.
Can one exceptional 11-5 season erase a reputation that is based on nine years of futility? Norv Turner better hope so.
Final Score: Chargers 28 Titans 10
Giants at Buccaneers
Jeff Garcia, history maker?
Only two quarterbacks have ever started a playoff game for three different teams.
Brad Johnson (Minnesota, Washington and Tampa Bay)
David Krieg (Seattle, Kansas City and Detroit)
If Garcia starts on Sunday against the Giants, he’d be the third or fourth (Tennessee’s Kerry Collins might also join the list, depending on Vince Young’s health)
Where might history be made? Neither Johnson or Krieg won playoff games with all three teams. (Krieg failed with Detroit, Johnson with Washington)
Garcia beat the Giants while with the 49ers (2002) and while with the Eagles last season.
Unfortunately for the Giants, the headline on Monday morning will read as follows: “Giants fall short, Coughlin and Eli 0-3 in the playoffs”
Final Score: Bucs 17 Giants 14
Complete Playoff Predictions
Here is what I think will happen over the next four weeks
Next week
Patriots 31 Jaguars 20
Colts 28 Chargers 10
Cowboys 31 Redskins 14
Packers 30 Bucs 10
AFC Title Game: Patriots 24 Colts 10
NFC Title Game: Cowboys 27 Packers 17
Super Bowl: Patriots 35 Cowboys 24
I'll be back Tuesday with more on the NFL Playoffs.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Week 17 In The NFL
Welcome Back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy on the team990.com
This week’s blog will be in the Question and Answer format
Question Number One
It is Tuesday afternoon and one coach had been fired already (Brian Billick) Who else will be fired by the end of the week?
Answer: Scott Linehan, Mike Nolan, John Fox and Cam Cameron and Emmitt Thomas.
Question Number Two
Who will replace them?
Answer: I am not sure how Atlanta and Carolina will proceed but here are my predictions for the other teams.
Defensive coordinators in St Louis, San Francisco and Baltimore will all move into the top slots:
Jim Haslett, Mike Singletary and Rex Ryan.
Cards offensive coordinator Todd Haley will be Parcells’ head man in Miami, having worked with the Tuna in Dallas.
Question Number Three
The Browns finished 10-6 and missed the playoffs? Should we have any sympathy for Romeo Crennell and his gang?
Answer: A bit, but not much. Let’s compare the Titans and Browns schedules.
The Titans faced opponents who finished with a combined adjusted won loss record of 122-118.
The Browns faced opponents who finished with a combined adjusted won loss record of 104-136
Cleveland’s schedule was the FIFTEENTH EASIEST schedule in the 16 game era (786 qualifiers)
The Titans 10 wins came against opponents who finished with a 70-90 record
The Browns 10 wins came against teams with a combined 55-105 record
So the numbers would indicate that the Titans beat much tougher opponents while facing a harder schedule. Jeff Fisher deserved to make the playoffs.
But here is one more reason why Jeff Fisher deserved to make the playoffs ahead of Romeo in 2007.
Last season the Titans and Jeff Fisher had the FOURTH toughest schedule ever in the 16 game era, yet just missed making the playoffs.
So consider 2007 the season where good people get good things given to them.
Question Number Four
Can a coach, such as Tom Coughlin, with three consecutive playoff appearances be fired?
Answer: You bet. It’s happened quite a few times, and don’t be surprised if it happens gain.
When and who? Bum Phillips, Houston (‘78 to ‘80), Jerry Glanville, Houston (‘87 to ‘89) Buddy Ryan, Philadelphia (‘88 to ‘90) and more recently, Tony Dungy, Tampa Bay (‘99 to ‘01)
Question Number Four
Did the 8-8 Philadelphia Eagles overachieve or underachieve in 2007?
Answer: Overachieve. The Eagles had a remarkable season, despite going .500
Why? Because Philly had the TENTH most difficult schedule EVER in the 16 game era. Tenth most difficult out of 786 QUALIFIERS!!!! Now that is a killer schedule.
Philly’s opponents had an adjusted won loss record of 136-104.
Which teams in the 16 game era (1978 onwards) have had tougher records than Andy Reid’s gang this year?
In order here they are: Jets 1999, Cardinals 1991, Bengals 1979, Jets 2000, Titans 2006, Bills 2006, Bears 2000, Dolphins 1999 and the 1990 Patriots.
The fact that the Eagles could even get to .500 is a testament to the coaching ability of Andy Reid.
Question Number Five
Is there a quarterback controversy in Washington ?
Answer: There shouldn’t be. Apparently Jason Campbell will be ready for the wild card game versus Seattle. But I do not care. Todd Collins has taken control of the Redskin offense and is moving them down the field efficiently without turning the ball over.
Unless Collins struggles, Campbell should stay on the sidelines.
Question Number Six
Is there a quarterback controversy in Tennessee?
Answer: There shouldn’t be. If Vince Young is healthy, he plays. Simple as that.
Like Todd Collins, Kerry Collins is a veteran quarterback who knows the playbook and for the most part, can avoid turnovers, as witnessed by his very efficient performance against the Colt scrubs Sunday night.
However, unlike Jason Campbell, Vince Young is a quarterback with winning experience and the ability to turn games around with his legs.
Question Number Seven
Has Marvin Lewis saved his job ?
Answer: You bet he has....for at least one more season. When the Bengals were 2-6 at the halfway mark, I would have put even money that Lewis would be gone after the season.
However the Bengals rebounded to a 5-3 finish, including three wins in their last 4 games.
Included in that streak were wins over a pair of 10-6 teams: Cleveland and Tennessee
This is the first time that Marvin Lewis’ five seasons that the Bengals have finished with a record below .500
Just to compare, have a look at the Bengals record with and without Lewis on the sidelines:
5 seasons with Marvin Lewis as head coach: 42-38-0
5 seasons prior to Lewis joining the Bengals: 19-61-0
Question Number Eight
Should Mike Nolan be fired as 49ers Head Coach?
Answer: Absolutely. Here are Nolan’s won loss records since taking over in 2005
2005: 4-12
2006: 7-9
2007: 5-11
Based on the preceding information, should anyone expect Mike Nolan to be successful in 2008? 4?
It is not enough for me to simply have an opinion on this subject so I’ll look at recent history to guide me and the readers.
So here goes. How many coaches (in the 16 game era) have started their careers with three straight losing seasons?
Here is the list:
Dan Henning, Atlanta (‘83 to ‘85) 7-9, 4-12 and 4-12
Gene Stallings, Cardinals (‘86 to ‘88) 4-11-1, 7-8 and 7-9
Darryl Rogers, Detroit (‘85 to ‘87) 7-9, 5-11 and 4-12
Bill Belichick, Cleveland (‘91 to ‘93) 6-10, 7-9 and 7-9
David Shula, Cincinnati (‘92 to ‘94) 5-11, 3-13 and 3-13
David McGinnis, Arizona (‘01 to ‘03) 7-9, 5-11 and 4-12
David Campo, Dallas (‘00 to ‘02) 5-11, 5-11 and 5-11
Look closely and take notes on these seven coaches.
Note 1: Two coaches (Campo and McGinnis) were fired
Note 2: Gene Stallings and Darryl Rogers were brought back, yet were fired before finishing their fourth season.
Note 3: Dan Henning lasted an entire fourth season, finished under .500 AGAIN, then was fired
Note 4: David Shula lasted an entire fourth season, finished under .500 AGAIN (surprised?), was brought back for a fifth season which he failed to complete, due to his finally being fired after a 2-5 start.
This is the tricky part:
Note 5: Bill Belichick wasn’t fired after three straight losing seasons in Cleveland, and the Browns faith was rewarded with an 11-5 record and a playoff victory over the New England Patriots. The following year, Belichick reverted to his sub .500 methods, going 5-11 and finally being removed.
If you are a member of the 49ers management, what choice do you have? The data would overwhelmingly suggest that if a coach cannot reach .500 once in his first three seasons, he never will.
Hope you enjoyed my abbreviated posting today.
I’ll be back with my wild card predictions on Friday.
This week’s blog will be in the Question and Answer format
Question Number One
It is Tuesday afternoon and one coach had been fired already (Brian Billick) Who else will be fired by the end of the week?
Answer: Scott Linehan, Mike Nolan, John Fox and Cam Cameron and Emmitt Thomas.
Question Number Two
Who will replace them?
Answer: I am not sure how Atlanta and Carolina will proceed but here are my predictions for the other teams.
Defensive coordinators in St Louis, San Francisco and Baltimore will all move into the top slots:
Jim Haslett, Mike Singletary and Rex Ryan.
Cards offensive coordinator Todd Haley will be Parcells’ head man in Miami, having worked with the Tuna in Dallas.
Question Number Three
The Browns finished 10-6 and missed the playoffs? Should we have any sympathy for Romeo Crennell and his gang?
Answer: A bit, but not much. Let’s compare the Titans and Browns schedules.
The Titans faced opponents who finished with a combined adjusted won loss record of 122-118.
The Browns faced opponents who finished with a combined adjusted won loss record of 104-136
Cleveland’s schedule was the FIFTEENTH EASIEST schedule in the 16 game era (786 qualifiers)
The Titans 10 wins came against opponents who finished with a 70-90 record
The Browns 10 wins came against teams with a combined 55-105 record
So the numbers would indicate that the Titans beat much tougher opponents while facing a harder schedule. Jeff Fisher deserved to make the playoffs.
But here is one more reason why Jeff Fisher deserved to make the playoffs ahead of Romeo in 2007.
Last season the Titans and Jeff Fisher had the FOURTH toughest schedule ever in the 16 game era, yet just missed making the playoffs.
So consider 2007 the season where good people get good things given to them.
Question Number Four
Can a coach, such as Tom Coughlin, with three consecutive playoff appearances be fired?
Answer: You bet. It’s happened quite a few times, and don’t be surprised if it happens gain.
When and who? Bum Phillips, Houston (‘78 to ‘80), Jerry Glanville, Houston (‘87 to ‘89) Buddy Ryan, Philadelphia (‘88 to ‘90) and more recently, Tony Dungy, Tampa Bay (‘99 to ‘01)
Question Number Four
Did the 8-8 Philadelphia Eagles overachieve or underachieve in 2007?
Answer: Overachieve. The Eagles had a remarkable season, despite going .500
Why? Because Philly had the TENTH most difficult schedule EVER in the 16 game era. Tenth most difficult out of 786 QUALIFIERS!!!! Now that is a killer schedule.
Philly’s opponents had an adjusted won loss record of 136-104.
Which teams in the 16 game era (1978 onwards) have had tougher records than Andy Reid’s gang this year?
In order here they are: Jets 1999, Cardinals 1991, Bengals 1979, Jets 2000, Titans 2006, Bills 2006, Bears 2000, Dolphins 1999 and the 1990 Patriots.
The fact that the Eagles could even get to .500 is a testament to the coaching ability of Andy Reid.
Question Number Five
Is there a quarterback controversy in Washington ?
Answer: There shouldn’t be. Apparently Jason Campbell will be ready for the wild card game versus Seattle. But I do not care. Todd Collins has taken control of the Redskin offense and is moving them down the field efficiently without turning the ball over.
Unless Collins struggles, Campbell should stay on the sidelines.
Question Number Six
Is there a quarterback controversy in Tennessee?
Answer: There shouldn’t be. If Vince Young is healthy, he plays. Simple as that.
Like Todd Collins, Kerry Collins is a veteran quarterback who knows the playbook and for the most part, can avoid turnovers, as witnessed by his very efficient performance against the Colt scrubs Sunday night.
However, unlike Jason Campbell, Vince Young is a quarterback with winning experience and the ability to turn games around with his legs.
Question Number Seven
Has Marvin Lewis saved his job ?
Answer: You bet he has....for at least one more season. When the Bengals were 2-6 at the halfway mark, I would have put even money that Lewis would be gone after the season.
However the Bengals rebounded to a 5-3 finish, including three wins in their last 4 games.
Included in that streak were wins over a pair of 10-6 teams: Cleveland and Tennessee
This is the first time that Marvin Lewis’ five seasons that the Bengals have finished with a record below .500
Just to compare, have a look at the Bengals record with and without Lewis on the sidelines:
5 seasons with Marvin Lewis as head coach: 42-38-0
5 seasons prior to Lewis joining the Bengals: 19-61-0
Question Number Eight
Should Mike Nolan be fired as 49ers Head Coach?
Answer: Absolutely. Here are Nolan’s won loss records since taking over in 2005
2005: 4-12
2006: 7-9
2007: 5-11
Based on the preceding information, should anyone expect Mike Nolan to be successful in 2008? 4?
It is not enough for me to simply have an opinion on this subject so I’ll look at recent history to guide me and the readers.
So here goes. How many coaches (in the 16 game era) have started their careers with three straight losing seasons?
Here is the list:
Dan Henning, Atlanta (‘83 to ‘85) 7-9, 4-12 and 4-12
Gene Stallings, Cardinals (‘86 to ‘88) 4-11-1, 7-8 and 7-9
Darryl Rogers, Detroit (‘85 to ‘87) 7-9, 5-11 and 4-12
Bill Belichick, Cleveland (‘91 to ‘93) 6-10, 7-9 and 7-9
David Shula, Cincinnati (‘92 to ‘94) 5-11, 3-13 and 3-13
David McGinnis, Arizona (‘01 to ‘03) 7-9, 5-11 and 4-12
David Campo, Dallas (‘00 to ‘02) 5-11, 5-11 and 5-11
Look closely and take notes on these seven coaches.
Note 1: Two coaches (Campo and McGinnis) were fired
Note 2: Gene Stallings and Darryl Rogers were brought back, yet were fired before finishing their fourth season.
Note 3: Dan Henning lasted an entire fourth season, finished under .500 AGAIN, then was fired
Note 4: David Shula lasted an entire fourth season, finished under .500 AGAIN (surprised?), was brought back for a fifth season which he failed to complete, due to his finally being fired after a 2-5 start.
This is the tricky part:
Note 5: Bill Belichick wasn’t fired after three straight losing seasons in Cleveland, and the Browns faith was rewarded with an 11-5 record and a playoff victory over the New England Patriots. The following year, Belichick reverted to his sub .500 methods, going 5-11 and finally being removed.
If you are a member of the 49ers management, what choice do you have? The data would overwhelmingly suggest that if a coach cannot reach .500 once in his first three seasons, he never will.
Hope you enjoyed my abbreviated posting today.
I’ll be back with my wild card predictions on Friday.
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