Welcome back to the Jimmy G blog on the Team 990.
Small note: A few readers sent me emails saying they found it ironic that I would post a blog answering questions, yet forget to mention the email address so that others might ask questions in the future. So before I forget, if any readers have a question or comment to make, please send them to jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com And thanks to those readers who scrolled down far enough to find my email address from a previous post.
On we go to Week 8 in the NFL.
Some Quick Notes Before We Get Started
It is time for the Bills to get it done: two straight wins to get to 3-4 after that disastrous Dallas loss. And who is next up for the Bills? The Bengals and the Dolphins. If the Bills can get to 5-4 they will be a major player in the playoff race.
This will be a must win for the Redskins: Being blown out by the Patriots is nothing to be ashamed of. Everybody has gone through it since early September. But this Sunday will be the true test for Joe Gibbs and the Skins. If they can beat the 1-7 Jets they will be 5-3 with big divisional games against the Eagles and Cowboys to follow. If they lose to the Jets then the Joe Gibbs era Version2 in all likelihood will end quite unhappily.
Why did the Bengals go into a huddle with 4:00 left trailing by 11 points? Wasn’t it strange that the Bengals used the hurry offense to move 50 yards in 5 plays yet for some reason decided to slow down the pace by going into a huddle? Next 2 plays: false start penalty and then a fumble recovered by the Steelers. If that is not a microcosm of the entire season for Marvin Lewis, then I don’t know what is.
Right Decision, Wrong Result: Eric Mangini made the right decision to punt the football down 3 points with 6 minutes left on 4th and 3 from the Bills 43 yard line. Mangini’s thinking: my defense is playing great, now if my punter can stick them inside the 5 yard line, we can make them punt from their end zone.
His punter Ben Graham actually stuck the Bills inside the 3, making the possibility of a safety come into play. However an 85 yard touchdown pass from JP Losman to Lee Evans made the decision to punt look bad in retrospect.
I am not second guessing however: I agreed with his call before the Losman to Evans TD and I agree with it now.
Just When I Thought He Was Out, He Pulls Himself Back In
After last week’s 97 yard drive versus the Eagles I thought that Brian Griese was perhaps going to finally shed his image as a paper quarterback Well, he wasn’t even that yesterday. 4 picks on 40 throws and only 208 yards, barely over 5 yards an attempt. Now Griese is 2-3 as a starter.
However, Griese is still the best option for the Bears. Rex Grossman had one touchdown pass and six interceptions to go along with his 5.62 yards per pass attempt( 500 yards on 89 throws) Griese TD to INT ratio is 9-10 and his yards per pass attempt is appreciably higher than Rex’s: 6.95 (1411 yards on 203 throws)
Long story short: the Bears are screwed either way. Stick with Griese and you will get flashes of his excellent potential but be let down in the end. Or go back to Rex and be reminded that he cannot succeed unless he has a good running game(which the Bears don’t have) and he doesn’t turn the ball over (which he is incapable of doing)
The Reason The Chargers have Won Three Straight
Mathematics made simple.
During the Chargers 1-3 start, they forgot about the running game: Norv Turner called for 106 running plays compared to 149 passes.
During the 3 game winning streak: 97 runs to 51 passes.
This 97 to 51 ratio does 2 things.
(1)it gets LT the ball more often
(2)it allows Philip Rivers to be more successful throwing the ball since defences will have to concentrate on LT.
Want proof? During the 3-0 stretch, Rivers is 34 of 50 for 546 yards. If you add in 1 sack for a loss of 2 yards, the Chargers are averaging just under 11 yards every time their quarterback drops back to pass. That is the equivalent of a first down and more every time.
The Reason The Saints Have Won Three Straight
Drew Brees had completed 78 of 109 for 901 yards against the Seahawks, Falcons and 49ers.
Drew Brees also hasn’t been sacked in the last three games.
Look at the basic math for the Saints in 2007
0-4 start: Brees 181 dopbacks (177 attempts plus 4 sacks) for 906 net yards
3-0 stretch: Brees 109 dropbacks (all passes, no sacks) for 901 net yards
Brees averaged 5.01 yards per pass play in the losses and 7.35 yards per pass play in the wins.
That is an astounding difference of 2.34 yards per play in the last 3 weeks as opposed to the first four.
Mathematics made simple.
The Biggest Problem Eric Mangini Has
There is one major statistical category that explains the Jets season thus far.
In 2006, the Jets had the lead or were tied in the 4th Quarter in 11 games. They won 10 of them.
In 2007, the Jets have had the lead or were tied in the 4th Quarter in 5 games. They have 1 win.
Head Coach Eric Mangini has to find to get his Jets to close out teams in the 4th quarter.
At first glance it seemed that the Jets problems had more to do with the fact their schedule has been tougher in 2007. But that is not the case.
The Jets opponents had an adjusted record of 114-126 in 2006, a winning percentage of .475
Note: opponents adjusted record is calculated on the 240 games played by 16 opponents that do not include said team. Example: Jets opponents went 120-136 in 2006, less the 6 victories over the Jets, and 10 losses to the Jets
This year, the Jets opponents have an adjusted record of 22-29, a winning percentage of only .431.
So the Jets in fact have regressed in 2007 even though their schedule has been much easier than in 2006.
For more on how things can change for 2nd year head coaches, read the next blurb.
Protecting Fourth Quarter Leads and Rod Marinelli
In the last 2 weeks, the Detroit Lions have beaten the Bucs and the Bears and now stand at 5-2. Those were huge victories because the Lions now they hold tiebreakers over both teams. Remember that this is the NFC where a truckload of teams will be 8-7 and battling for playoff positions in Week 17. Every win counts.
Lions Head Coach Rod Marinelli has done a much better job this year in one respect. He has his squad finishing games in the 4th quarter. His 3-13 Lions of 2006 blew 4th quarter leads to the Rams, Vikings, Patriots (yes The Patriots!) and Bears.
In 2007? Zero blown leads.
Protecting Jon Kitna from Mike Martz
Despite the excellent 5-2 start there is one very disturbing element to the Detroit Lions in 2007: their inability to protect the quarterback.
Since Mike Martz is the offensive coordinator, this isn’t strange. Disturbing yes, but not strange.
Why? Because Mike Martz likes to empty the backfield and go with as many receivers as possible in order to give his quarterback multiple options.
The good: Martz, as both coordinator and head coach, has had good QB’s in Kurt Warner, Trent Green, Marc Bulger and Jon Kitna to work with. Veteran signal callers who get rid of the ball quickly and effectively.
The bad: defences can tee off on these very same QB’s at will since there will only be 5 blockers at most on almost every snap. Blitzing has been popular for Martz opponents.
In 2007 Jon Kitna has been sacked league leading 33 times in just 279 dropbacks, after being pounded to the ground 63 times in 659 dropbacks in 2006. The sack ratio has been worse this year, even though the Lions won loss record reflects otherwise.
Here are the sack numbers for Mike Martz teams since 1998, his first year as a coordinator with the Washington Redskins.
Team Sacks Dropbacks
1998 Wash 61 626
1999 Rams 34 564
2000 Rams 44 631
2001 Rams 40 591
2002 Rams 46 681
2003 Rams 43 643
2004 Rams 50 631
2006 Rams 63 659
These are poor numbers by any definition. But before we get too critical of Mike Martz let us remember the following:
-Mike Martz has a career won loss record of 53-32 as a Head Coach
-Mike Martz has made the playoffs four times in his five full seasons as Head Coach
-Mike Martz has reached the Super Bowl as a Head Coach
-Mike Martz has won a Super Bowl as an Offensive Coordinator
So maybe there is a method to the madness of Mike Martz after all. One cannot argue with his success, although one can be worried every time his quarterback drops back in the pocket.
The Falcons Didn’t Play But Here Is Something Interesting
Since Week 5, teams that have won the turnover battle are 38-6.
The Falcons are 0-3 despite having won the turnover battle against the Giants, Titans and the Saints during that stretch.
Yards Per Pass Play Is Important: Here Are Two Exceptions
Since the start of the season, teams that have averaged 2 more yards per pass play than their opponents are 53-10.
I have harped on this stat since my blog appeared. And I will continue to do so.
However this week, I will note the exceptions to the rule.
The Giants averaged 2.13 yards per pass play (49 yards on 23 dropbacks) while Miami averaged 4.46 (138 yards on 31 dropbacks The Giants won 13-10.
The Titans averaged a paltry 1.625 yards per pass play (26 yards on 16 dropbacks) while Oakland averaged 3.86 (143 yards on 37 dropbacks) The Titans won 13-9.
I Am Starting To Believe In Tom Coughlin
6 straight wins for the Giants after starting the season with two losses.
What impresses me most about the Giants win over Miami? The New Tom Coughlin and his risk taking.
Situation: Giants lead 3-0, just under 6 minutes left in the first half. 4th and 1 at the Miami 49.
The Old Tom Coughlin would have sent the punt unit on the field without hesitation.
The New Tom Coughlin? Gambled, Giants got a first down and scored a touchdown six plays later to take a 10-0 lead.
If You Run The Ball More Than Your Opponents You Win
In 2007 teams who have rushed the ball five or more times than their opponents in a game are 73-8 , a winning percent of 90.1%
Yesterday was no exception as all nine teams who had a rushing attempt differential of plus five or more ended up victorious.
Completing More Passes Doesn’t Mean The Same Thing
If you complete five more passes than your opponent, you don’t have the same chances of winning.
Teams which complete five or more passes than their opponents are 32-46, a winning percentage of 41.0%
Yesterday was the norm, as only three of the eight teams who completed five or more passes than their opponents ended up winning.
That’s it for me everyone. I hope you enjoyed reading my blog.
I’ll be back on Friday with my Week 9 predictions.
Monday, October 29, 2007
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Predictions For Week 8 and Answering Readers' Emails
Welcome back to the Jimmy G blog on the team990.com
As promised, in today’s post I will answer reader’s emails but before doing so I will make my predictions for Week 8.
Patriots over Redskins: this is the first time that three time Super Bowl winning coaches have gone head to head. To beat the Patriots the Skins need to (a)run the ball effectively (b)win the turnover battle (c)keep the score close and then (d)make the proper coaching decisions at the important moments . If you’ve been reading my blog, you know how I feel about (d) as regards
Browns over Rams:
Titans over Raiders; the Raiders are 2-4, having blown three 4th quarter leads. Their ship has sailed. The Titans are a legitimate playoff contender. To move from contender status to playoff participant, the Titans have to beat teams like the Raiders.
Bears over Lions: This is the separation game in the playoff standings. If the Lions win, they are 5-2 with a 2 game lead on the Bears, three with the tiebreaker (Lions have already beaten
Bills over Jets: Dick Jauron did everything humanly possible to give away last Sunday’s game against the Ravens, but won anyway. I just don’t see the Jets being a winning team until they change quarterbacks or until Chad Pennington regains his arm strength. My favorite line thus far goes to ESPN's Keshawn Johnson: "The girl who delivers my newspaper has a better arm than Chad Pennington"
Giants over
Bucs over Jags: the Jags have one less day to prepare after playing on Monday. Having seen Quinn Gray play, I would imagine the play calling for the Jags will be one dimensionally tilted towards the run. The Bucs however, need this game just as badly, and unlike the Jags, they can depend on their QB should they fall behind.
Broncos over Packers: even with a week off, I still expect Brett Favre to throw four picks any game now.
In other games: Colts over
Now onto the emails sent from team990.com readers.
From Derek Pearson: “Hey Jimmy, just read your blog for the first time. Why are you ripping Tarvaris Jackson for? He’s a young quarterback. What do you expect? Give the kid time before you blast him.”
Thank you the email Derek. I expect that with more experience and good coaching Tarvaris Jackson will prove to be an effective NFL quarterback. With a rebuilding team I would recommend Tarvaris stay in the lineup. The Vikings are not a rebuilding team however. They have a solid running game, and they are very good at stopping the run. They can win right now, especially in the weak NFC if they just get decent production from the QB position.
Head Coach Brad Childress has to look at the situation selfishly: if he stays with
From Greg Phendler: “Can anybody beat my Patriots? If they win the Super Bowl will they be the best team ever? Keep up the good work”.
Greg, thanks for the nice comment. What makes the NFL so beautiful is that on any given Sunday anybody can beat anybody.
The Patriots were 14-2 in both 2003 and 2004. Among their losses: in ’03 they lost to the 5-11 Redskins and in ’04 they lost to the 4-12 Dolphins. True, Randy Moss was not a Patriot back then but you get the idea.For the Patriots to be the considered among the best teams ever they have to, like you alluded to, win the Super Bowl. In my lifetime the best teams I have seen are the ’89 49ers and the ’98 Broncos. I’d have to do some statistical studies after the Super Bowl to calculate how good the Patriots are in comparison (assuming of course, that the Patriots win)
From Ragesh Patel: “You keep mentioning statistics and winning football games. Can you explain which stats I should be looking at?
Ragesh, in the coming weeks I will be writing about this subject in greater detail.
For a statistic to be considered relevant it had to have a direct correlation to winning.
Here are the stats I always look at: yards per pass play, yards per pass attempt, turnover differential, rushing yards and rushing attempts differential.
From Matthew Da Silva: “Hey there Jimmy, decided to take a little time off from the midterm shenanigans and drop into your NFL blog., It’s definitely looking good as expected, but I got one topic: NFL coming to canada? Now I’m gonna leave the CFL aside, would an NFL expansion to the great white north be say...as smart as an NHL expansion to the southern states? If you also have some added insights not covered by this queston, please elaborate.
While I think the NFL coming to
NFL owners, while they care about dollars like everyone else, are different from NHL owners in two crucial areas: they do extensive research and they have better cash flow.
The NHL owners expanded for one reason: easy money. New owners pay up front, the old owners collect quick. Since the NHL doesn’t have the same revenue streams as the NFL I can hardly blame them. It is difficult to turn down free money.
Unfortunately the NHL owners didn't care that by expanding their product they'd be diluting their talent base. The NHL owners also didn't care that fans in the South (
The NFL is much smarter and wealthier. The owners don't need the expansion money (although they would love easy money like the NHL owners) The NFL knows its market. The NFL does its research.
In terms of expansion, I do not think the NFL is looking at
I do believe that the NFL will schedule as many as TEN international REGULAR SEASON games each season, perhaps 3 on opening day, in places such as Toronto, Mexico, the Orient, Europe and maybe even South America because it is in the same time zone.
All these international games would allow the NFL to maintain its huge presence without risking over saturation.
That is it for me. I’ll be posting my analysis of Week 8 on Monday afternoon as opposed to my usual early Monday morning.
Sunday, October 21, 2007
Week 7 Edition: The NFL Week In Review
Welcome back to the Jimmy G blog. On Thursday I will publish a mid week post answering readers questions, including my thoughts on the NFL coming to Toronto, what are the most important stats in regards to winning football games and other assorted subjects.
My predictions for this week: 9-4 not including the Monday Night Game. Overall 24-16 (60%)
Any questions or comments, please send them to jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com
Anyway, away we go with an analysis of Week 7.
Some Quick Notes before I go in depth:
-The Vikings need to start Kelly Holcomb at QB. He does not possess the greatest skills but he is a caretaker QB, and the Vikings can win now with a caretaker QB. Tavaris Jackson is a glorified college option QB who holds onto the ball needlessly and cannot read the play that is developing in front of him. The Vikes can run the ball and they can stop the run. It would be a shame if they finished 6-10 again.
-The Giants continue to look good, winning their fifth straight after opening the season 0-2. It is true that their last 4 wins have been against teams who are a combined 6-20 (Philly, SF, Atlanta and the Jets) but in order to get to 9-7, you have to take all the winnable games on the schedule. The Giants are doing just that. Next up for the NYG: the 0-7 Dolphins overseas. I sense that the Giants will start 6-2 start for the 3rd straight season.
-Why are people criticizing Bill Belichick for running up the score? Is a 42 -21 lead safe with 10 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter? Of course it is. Belichick is a bad guy for putting Tom Brady back in the game.
Oh wait. Did the Texans just come back from a 25 point 4th quarter deficit to take the lead on the Titans? Yes, they did.
Yes indeed. A 21 point lead with 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter is very safe. Very safe.
-Is anyone going to mention Damon Huard anytime soon? Huard is 9-6 as the Chiefs QB (5-3 in ‘06, 4-3 in ‘07) He has four 4th quarter come-from-behind victories along with 2 game winning 4th quarter drives. Not bad for a career backup. Not to pick on Trent Green, but how are the Dolphins doing?
-It is very fortunate for Joe Gibbs and the Redskins that Neil Rackers didn’t connect on his 55 yard game winning field goal attempt. Gibbs has hired the best coaching staff money can buy, including the very highly regarded Special Teams Coordinator Danny Smith. How does he get repaid for spending so much of Daniel Snyder’s money? By seeing his special teams unit mess up on the Cards onside kick attempt. But the Skins won in the end and they are 4-2, so maybe I should stop criticizing Joe Gibbs.
-Make that three blown 4th quarter leads for the Raiders. You know, Lane Kiffin is going to have to learn how to hold on to a lead one of these days.
-The Jets finished 10-6 last year: their opponents adjusted record 114-126 (.475)
This year the Jets are 1-6: their first 7 opponents adjusted record thus far: 16-23 (.410)
Their last nine opponents adjusted record: 34-24 (.586)
Scary to think what will happen when the Jets have to play the tough teams.
-Normally a coach won’t lose his job if his team is ravaged by injuries. Scott Linehan might be the exception. The Rams are a total mess, pure and simple. Like the Dolphins, they won’t go 0-16, but they won’t reach 3 wins either. Cam Cameron is in his 1st year, so he will get a pass for the lousy start. Linehan? Probably not.
Did Tom Brady Need To Try A Fake Spike At The End Of The Half?
Seriously. Was this necessary?
Situation: Patriots demolishing the Dolphins 35-7. Clock ticking with just under 40 seconds remaining in the 2nd quarter. Tom Brady getting his team lined up for a spike to stop the clock.
Instead of spiking the ball, however, Brady faked, and tried a fade pattern down the right sideline to Randy Moss. Moss caught the ball out of bounds, incomplete.
A little history before I continue.
The fake spike became famous in 1994.
Dan Marino was driving his Dolphins for a game tying field against the Jets with 25 seconds left, clock moving. The ball was spotted at the 8 yard line. Marino got to the line of scrimmage, faked a throw to the ground and threw to Mark Ingram instead. Touchdown Dolphins. Dolphins win.
The Jets were caught napping on the play because they expected Marino to stop the clock since this was not a touchdown to tie or win situation. A field goal would have forced overtime.
The play worked for the Dolphins for two reasons.
The first reason is obvious. Dan Marino was the quarterback. Enough said.
The second reason is completely overlooked however. Two words: Bernie Kosar.
Kosar was the backup quarterback for the Dolphins, finishing up his career in South Florida holding a clipboard after a lifetime of being a starter in Cleveland.
During the preseason Marino and head coach Don Shula wanted to attempt a fake spike at the end of a half in order to see how it worked against an NFL defense. Since Marino was not going to play the 2nd half of an exhibition game, they waited until the 2 minute drill was in play to try it.
Kosar, on the sideline, calling in the plays through the headset, talked Shula and Marino out of it. The reason? A fake spike can only be tried once. After the first attempt, everyone will be expecting it, so noone will be caught by surprise.
What is the point of faking a spike and scoring a touchdown in a meaningless exhibition game?
Kosar reasoned that later in the season, a very important moment would present itself where it would be worthwhile to try a gadget play.
Kosar was correct. The game in question was a huge game for both the Jets and Dolphins. Miami was 7-4 and on a 2 game losing streak. The Jets were 6-5, a game back. A Jets win would have given the Dolphins a third straight loss and forced a three way tie for 1st place with Buffalo Bills in the mix as well.
With the Dolphins driving to either force overtime or score a winning touchdown, Kosar called for the play. This was the moment Kosar was referring when he convinced Shula and Marino not to try the fake spike during the exhibition season.
It worked. Why? Because the Jets did not expect Dan Marino to throw the ball after seeing him motion downward as he stepped in under center.
What does all this have to do with Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots?
It is simple. The Patriots tried a gadget play in a meaning game against a totally overmatched opponent.
Was it worth it to expose a trick play in that atmosphere? Wouldn’t the Patriots have been better served to wait for just the right moment, as the Dolphins did in ‘94? Against a team which had a chance of beating them?
I have no problems with the Patriots trying to score more points than necessary, what most observers call “running up the score” If an NFL defense cannot stop you, that qualifies as their problem, not yours.
But emptying your playbook in a meaningless game? Ridiculous. And make no mistake about it, this was a meaningless game.
Is Marvin Lewis About To Be Fired?
After seeing Cincy come from behind to beat the Jets, I thought I’d share some important notes regarding Marvin Lewis’ tenure with the Bengals.
(1)Marvin has never had a losing record: True he has three 8-8's (‘03, ‘04 and ‘06) wrapped around an 11-5 (‘05) but 8-8 is more than respectable.
(2)Marvin has coached 70 regular season games with the Bengals: career record 37-33
How did the Bengals do in the 70 games prior to Marvin Lewis’ arrival? 17-53
(Bruce Coslet 5-20 and Dick Lebeau 12-33)
That statistic alone speaks volumes about the turnaround Lewis has engineered. Lewis has taken a joke of a franchise and built it to a highly respectable level.
(3)The Bengals were 1-4 to start both the 2003 and 2004 seasons, yet Marvin Lewis was able to manufacture 7-4 finishes both years. So Lewis has more than proven that he can turn the team around DURING the season.
(4)Marvin’s contract expires after the 2010 season. The Bengals will not fire a coach and then pay him to sit at home. The Bengals have proven that when it comes to money, they are incredibly cheap.
You don’t believe me? Well here are two not so great examples from their recent history.
Example 1
David Shula was allowed to stay on as head coach until the 7th game of the 1996 season.
The 1996 season was Shula’s fifth with the Bengals.
Shula had a five year contract that expired after the 1996 season.
In his first 4 seasons in Cincinnati David Shula was 18-46.
If they had fired him after his 4th season they would have had to pay him for a full year to sit at home.
But instead of biting the bullet, admitting that the son of the legendary Don Shula was not prime time material, the Bengals brought him back for the final year of the contract.
The Bengals started 1-6 in ‘96 at which point they finally fired Shula. The Bengals were on the hook for only half of the 5th and final year of Shula’s contract.
They saved money on the deal. They also became a laughingstock of a franchise but at least an incompetent coach wasn’t being paid to sit at home.
No the Bengals allowed an incompetent coach to roam the sidelines instead.
They could have hired a new sheriff who would have come in and immediately cleaned up the Shula mess but then they would have to pay two head coaches instead of one.
Does the math start to make sense?
Do you need another example?
Example 2
Bruce Coslet took over for David Shula after the 7th game in 1996. He did an outstanding job mopping up in ‘96, going 7-2. That earned him a 4 year contract expiring after the 2000 season.
In ‘97 Coslet went 7-9, a respectable enough record for a Bengal coach.
In ‘98 Coslet went 3-13, a downward spiral that normally would result in a coach being fired. But Coslet had two years left on his deal.
The Bengals could have started a search for an experienced winning coach but they allowed Bruce Coslet to continue.
In ‘99 the Bengals went 4-12. At this point firing Bruce Coslet should have been gone. Done. Run out of town. Nice Guy? Sure. A Winner? No way.
But Coslet still had a year left on his contract.
So of course the Bengals, against all conventional wisdom and common sense, brought Coslet.
The Bengals started 0-3 in 2000 at which point they finally fired Bruce Coslet. The Bengals didn’t save as much money as they did with David Shula but at least Coslet wasn’t paid a full season to sit at home.
The Point Being.....
Twice the Bengals brought back a substandard head coach with one year left on his deal so that they could save money.
The franchise lost a year of development both times but money is money and this, after all, is the Bengals.
Marvin Lewis has 4 years left on his deal. I would normally suggest that he can’t possibly be fired but there is plenty of irony here. Why is there irony?
Coaches who get fired get paid for the remainder of their contract.
Once a coach is hired by another team, the team that fired him no longer has to continue making payments.
David Shula was an embarrassment, a disaster. There are no other words that can describe him. No other team would have hired him as a head coach so the Bengals knew they would be responsible for the entire length of his deal.
Bruce Coslet had been coach of the New York Jets from 1990 to 1993, the only distinguishable positive feature being his 8-8 wild card in 1991. Adding his unsuccessful Bengal tenure to the mix guaranteed that he would not get a third opportunity as a head coach anywhere else.
Marvin Lewis is different. He is a successful coach with an above .500 career record.
Where is the irony you ask?
The irony is that Lewis’ success works AGAINST him: Lewis can expect to receive head coaching opportunities during any offseason, whether it be next January or in 2009 and beyond.
Therefore any decision to fire Marvin Lewis will not involve saving money, as in the Coslet and Shula examples.
The Bengals have a very good idea of what Lewis’ market value is. If they decide to fire Lewis, they can rest assured that they will only have to pay him for a short amount of time to sit at home before someone else hires him.
Love Smith: Poor Preparation Is The Fault Of The Head Coach
It is the responsibility of the head coach to make absolutely certain that his team is prepared to play each week, both mentally and physically.
The execution of designed plays is the result of countless hours of practice starting in the spring and continuing through to season’s end.
So explain how the Chicago Bears wasted two timeouts in the second half because they were unable to line up properly.
Timeout 1: In the 3rd quarter, the Bears had to wasted a timeout because Devin Hester was not lined up properly which would have caused a penalty had the snap taken place.
It is the responsibility of Head Coach Lovie Smith, as well as Offensive Coordinator Ron Turner, to make sure that these mistakes do not happen. This is professional football: the reason for practice is to acclimate oneself to everything that is in the playbook, audibles included. If a player is incapable of learning the playbook, don’t have them out there.
Timeout 2: One play into the 4th quarter, Lovie Smith sends out the special teams unit for a potential tying field goal. Just one problem: only 10 men were out on the field.
Result: 2nd timeout wasted. Again, this is the fault of Lovie Smith, and let’s not forget about Special Teams Coordinator Dave Toub. Special teams is all about repetition: snap hold kick snap hold kick snap hold kick. One would expect that the easiest element in special teams is to get 11 men to line up properly.
Failure to do so falls squarely on the coaches. Their job is to send out the right players.
Congratulations To The Paper QuarterBack
Despite Lovie Smith having to waste his timeouts early in the 2nd half, the Bears still had a chance to win the game.
No Timeouts, Own 3 yard line, 1:55 on the clock. Down 16-12. Brian Griese breaking the huddle.
I have stated on this blog that Brian Griese is nothing more than a paper quarterback: above average stats across the board but lacking any discernible leadership skills.
Winning quarterbacks all share one characteristic. Instead of me telling you what it is, I’ll reprint the relevant passage from the book “One More July” written by All Pro Center Bill Curry with George Plimpton.
Here is what 4 time All Pro Center Bill Curry wrote:
“The common thread of the great ones, of course, was that you had complete confidence in them-that the guy knew which plays to call, and that if you executed them properly it would work. If you had to sit there and wonder: Now if we do this and we did it just right , it still might not be the right thing...then you’d have a real problem. With the great ones you didn’t have to worry.”
Brian Griese didn’t inspire that type of confidence in Denver, Miami or Tampa Bay. A Denver columnist once described a team meeting organized by Griese: noone sat within three chairs on either side of the quarterback.
Anyway back to the final drive. 97 yards in 11 plays. Touchdown Bears. Griese was 7 of 10 for 97 yards: simply outstanding. However to truly appreciate how great Griese was, we have to isolate two sequences on the drive.
Plays 3 and 4 of the final drive: Griese completed a 10 yard pass to Adrian Peterson, who stayed in bounds. Griese calmly got his team lined up in 16 seconds to set up another play which was an inbound pass to Hester for 7 yards, again calmly got his team lined up in 16 seconds and on the next play overthrew Muhsin Muhhama stopping the clock with 1:07 left.
This sequence impressed me because Griese was directing traffic quickly and efficiently. This was not the Brian Griese everyone had microanalyzed negatively for the last 9 years: the bumbler and fumbler who couldn’t perform when it mattered.
Plays 7-8-9-10-11: this was Griese at his absolute finest. On 3rd and 3 with 49 seconds left he found Bernard Berrian open over the middle at the Eagle 36. He got the Bears lined up calmly to spike the ball within 18 seconds. No hesitation whatsoever.
Them with 31 seconds left on 2nd and 10, nice slant to the dangerous Devin Hester to the Eagle 15. Hester was tackled in bounds and once again Griese calmly lined up the Bears for a spike with 15 seconds left.
This was not the Brian Griese I expected to see: a leader who carried himself with a confident aura. Watching the drive I fully expected Griese to get in the end zone in one form or another.
Of course on the next snap Griese did just that, finding Muhsin Muhhamad in the end zone for the winning touchdown. An unexpected happy ending for everyone involved, except, I would imagine
This was the second game winning drive orchestrated by Brian Griese in 4 starts as a Bear.
While I am not going to change my overall negative opinion of Brian Griese’s overall leadership skills based on a solid comeback against the Eagles, I will say that I am fully prepared to change my mind.
Play Calling... Brian Billick...Losing Football Games
Situation: Ravens trail the Bills 19-14. Ball at the Bills 49. 2:00 remaining, Clock stopped. 2nd and 1. 1 timeout left.
Willis McGahee has rushed for 119 yards on 24 carries thus far.
Let’s look at the situation logically.
(1)With one timeout left, the Ravens cannot expect to get the ball back should they lose possession. So it is obviously four down territory. A punt or a field goal is not an option.
(2)With the ball at midfield and 2:00 left and it being 4 down territory, the clock is not yet a factor. Yes you have to hurry to the line of scrimmage if you get caught in bounds, but you can still call a running play, perhaps two running plays if need be.
(3)Willis McGahee is averaging 6 yards a carry. It is 2nd and 1. In order to move the chains you need to get a first down.
So Brian Billick’s options are very clear. What happened next?
Before we delve into the ending of the Bills Ravens game, let us first rewind to the ending of the opening Monday Night contest between the Ravens and Bengals.
Situation: Ravens trail the Bengals by 7. 1:59 remaining. 1st and Goal for the Ravens at the Bengal 6 yard line. No timeouts left.
Brian Billick called for a handoff to Willis McGahee that gained 4 yards to the 2, making it 2nd and Goal.
But instead of calling for another handoff, or multiple handoffs to McGahee, Brian Billick selected 2 passing plays, the second of which was intercepted in the end zone.
Billick’s play calling against the Bengals was horrendous.
The clock was not relevant, there was plenty of time to run the ball again on 2nd down, and failing that, run the ball again on 3rd down, and failing that, run the ball one last time on 4th down. With Willis McGahee in the backfield, the chances of scoring would be exponentially high.
However, Billick mismanaged that final sequence against the Bengals. You would expect a Super Bowl winning coach to learn from his mistakes. After all, who was the offensive coordinator for the highest scoring team in NFL history? Brian Billick, 1998 Minnesota Vikings.
Because of this failure on opening night, I fully expected Willis McGahee to run the ball on 2nd and 1 against the Bills. Either that or a QB sneak. Once the chains move quarterback Kyle Boller would still be able to call a play quickly since everyone would be roaming near the line of scrimmage.
Instead Billick called for a passing play on 2nd and 1. Incomplete.
Passing play on 3rd and 1. Incomplete.
Another passing play on 4th and 1. Incomplete.
What is wrong with this picture? 1 yard is needed, the clock is not relevant (yet) and you are throwing the ball on every dow! If the Ravens were at their own 20 this decision making would be understandable. But the ball is at their opponents 49 yard line.
Run the ball!! Get a first down !!
That is the second losscan be attributed mainly to Brian Billick’s inefficient play calling.
Let us hope I never have to write another negative word about the Ravens and their head coach.
Here is an interesting question. What do these 2 Raven losses have in common, aside from Billick refusing to run the ball?
Answer: the decision making occurred immediately after he had the two minute warning to contemplate the situation.
So perhaps it stands to reason that if you give Brian Billick too much time to think about what to do next, he will coach himself into a corner.
Well that is it for me. Once again, thank you for reading and visit my blog again on Thursday where I answer readers emails. the email address again is: jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com
My predictions for this week: 9-4 not including the Monday Night Game. Overall 24-16 (60%)
Any questions or comments, please send them to jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com
Anyway, away we go with an analysis of Week 7.
Some Quick Notes before I go in depth:
-The Vikings need to start Kelly Holcomb at QB. He does not possess the greatest skills but he is a caretaker QB, and the Vikings can win now with a caretaker QB. Tavaris Jackson is a glorified college option QB who holds onto the ball needlessly and cannot read the play that is developing in front of him. The Vikes can run the ball and they can stop the run. It would be a shame if they finished 6-10 again.
-The Giants continue to look good, winning their fifth straight after opening the season 0-2. It is true that their last 4 wins have been against teams who are a combined 6-20 (Philly, SF, Atlanta and the Jets) but in order to get to 9-7, you have to take all the winnable games on the schedule. The Giants are doing just that. Next up for the NYG: the 0-7 Dolphins overseas. I sense that the Giants will start 6-2 start for the 3rd straight season.
-Why are people criticizing Bill Belichick for running up the score? Is a 42 -21 lead safe with 10 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter? Of course it is. Belichick is a bad guy for putting Tom Brady back in the game.
Oh wait. Did the Texans just come back from a 25 point 4th quarter deficit to take the lead on the Titans? Yes, they did.
Yes indeed. A 21 point lead with 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter is very safe. Very safe.
-Is anyone going to mention Damon Huard anytime soon? Huard is 9-6 as the Chiefs QB (5-3 in ‘06, 4-3 in ‘07) He has four 4th quarter come-from-behind victories along with 2 game winning 4th quarter drives. Not bad for a career backup. Not to pick on Trent Green, but how are the Dolphins doing?
-It is very fortunate for Joe Gibbs and the Redskins that Neil Rackers didn’t connect on his 55 yard game winning field goal attempt. Gibbs has hired the best coaching staff money can buy, including the very highly regarded Special Teams Coordinator Danny Smith. How does he get repaid for spending so much of Daniel Snyder’s money? By seeing his special teams unit mess up on the Cards onside kick attempt. But the Skins won in the end and they are 4-2, so maybe I should stop criticizing Joe Gibbs.
-Make that three blown 4th quarter leads for the Raiders. You know, Lane Kiffin is going to have to learn how to hold on to a lead one of these days.
-The Jets finished 10-6 last year: their opponents adjusted record 114-126 (.475)
This year the Jets are 1-6: their first 7 opponents adjusted record thus far: 16-23 (.410)
Their last nine opponents adjusted record: 34-24 (.586)
Scary to think what will happen when the Jets have to play the tough teams.
-Normally a coach won’t lose his job if his team is ravaged by injuries. Scott Linehan might be the exception. The Rams are a total mess, pure and simple. Like the Dolphins, they won’t go 0-16, but they won’t reach 3 wins either. Cam Cameron is in his 1st year, so he will get a pass for the lousy start. Linehan? Probably not.
Did Tom Brady Need To Try A Fake Spike At The End Of The Half?
Seriously. Was this necessary?
Situation: Patriots demolishing the Dolphins 35-7. Clock ticking with just under 40 seconds remaining in the 2nd quarter. Tom Brady getting his team lined up for a spike to stop the clock.
Instead of spiking the ball, however, Brady faked, and tried a fade pattern down the right sideline to Randy Moss. Moss caught the ball out of bounds, incomplete.
A little history before I continue.
The fake spike became famous in 1994.
Dan Marino was driving his Dolphins for a game tying field against the Jets with 25 seconds left, clock moving. The ball was spotted at the 8 yard line. Marino got to the line of scrimmage, faked a throw to the ground and threw to Mark Ingram instead. Touchdown Dolphins. Dolphins win.
The Jets were caught napping on the play because they expected Marino to stop the clock since this was not a touchdown to tie or win situation. A field goal would have forced overtime.
The play worked for the Dolphins for two reasons.
The first reason is obvious. Dan Marino was the quarterback. Enough said.
The second reason is completely overlooked however. Two words: Bernie Kosar.
Kosar was the backup quarterback for the Dolphins, finishing up his career in South Florida holding a clipboard after a lifetime of being a starter in Cleveland.
During the preseason Marino and head coach Don Shula wanted to attempt a fake spike at the end of a half in order to see how it worked against an NFL defense. Since Marino was not going to play the 2nd half of an exhibition game, they waited until the 2 minute drill was in play to try it.
Kosar, on the sideline, calling in the plays through the headset, talked Shula and Marino out of it. The reason? A fake spike can only be tried once. After the first attempt, everyone will be expecting it, so noone will be caught by surprise.
What is the point of faking a spike and scoring a touchdown in a meaningless exhibition game?
Kosar reasoned that later in the season, a very important moment would present itself where it would be worthwhile to try a gadget play.
Kosar was correct. The game in question was a huge game for both the Jets and Dolphins. Miami was 7-4 and on a 2 game losing streak. The Jets were 6-5, a game back. A Jets win would have given the Dolphins a third straight loss and forced a three way tie for 1st place with Buffalo Bills in the mix as well.
With the Dolphins driving to either force overtime or score a winning touchdown, Kosar called for the play. This was the moment Kosar was referring when he convinced Shula and Marino not to try the fake spike during the exhibition season.
It worked. Why? Because the Jets did not expect Dan Marino to throw the ball after seeing him motion downward as he stepped in under center.
What does all this have to do with Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots?
It is simple. The Patriots tried a gadget play in a meaning game against a totally overmatched opponent.
Was it worth it to expose a trick play in that atmosphere? Wouldn’t the Patriots have been better served to wait for just the right moment, as the Dolphins did in ‘94? Against a team which had a chance of beating them?
I have no problems with the Patriots trying to score more points than necessary, what most observers call “running up the score” If an NFL defense cannot stop you, that qualifies as their problem, not yours.
But emptying your playbook in a meaningless game? Ridiculous. And make no mistake about it, this was a meaningless game.
Is Marvin Lewis About To Be Fired?
After seeing Cincy come from behind to beat the Jets, I thought I’d share some important notes regarding Marvin Lewis’ tenure with the Bengals.
(1)Marvin has never had a losing record: True he has three 8-8's (‘03, ‘04 and ‘06) wrapped around an 11-5 (‘05) but 8-8 is more than respectable.
(2)Marvin has coached 70 regular season games with the Bengals: career record 37-33
How did the Bengals do in the 70 games prior to Marvin Lewis’ arrival? 17-53
(Bruce Coslet 5-20 and Dick Lebeau 12-33)
That statistic alone speaks volumes about the turnaround Lewis has engineered. Lewis has taken a joke of a franchise and built it to a highly respectable level.
(3)The Bengals were 1-4 to start both the 2003 and 2004 seasons, yet Marvin Lewis was able to manufacture 7-4 finishes both years. So Lewis has more than proven that he can turn the team around DURING the season.
(4)Marvin’s contract expires after the 2010 season. The Bengals will not fire a coach and then pay him to sit at home. The Bengals have proven that when it comes to money, they are incredibly cheap.
You don’t believe me? Well here are two not so great examples from their recent history.
Example 1
David Shula was allowed to stay on as head coach until the 7th game of the 1996 season.
The 1996 season was Shula’s fifth with the Bengals.
Shula had a five year contract that expired after the 1996 season.
In his first 4 seasons in Cincinnati David Shula was 18-46.
If they had fired him after his 4th season they would have had to pay him for a full year to sit at home.
But instead of biting the bullet, admitting that the son of the legendary Don Shula was not prime time material, the Bengals brought him back for the final year of the contract.
The Bengals started 1-6 in ‘96 at which point they finally fired Shula. The Bengals were on the hook for only half of the 5th and final year of Shula’s contract.
They saved money on the deal. They also became a laughingstock of a franchise but at least an incompetent coach wasn’t being paid to sit at home.
No the Bengals allowed an incompetent coach to roam the sidelines instead.
They could have hired a new sheriff who would have come in and immediately cleaned up the Shula mess but then they would have to pay two head coaches instead of one.
Does the math start to make sense?
Do you need another example?
Example 2
Bruce Coslet took over for David Shula after the 7th game in 1996. He did an outstanding job mopping up in ‘96, going 7-2. That earned him a 4 year contract expiring after the 2000 season.
In ‘97 Coslet went 7-9, a respectable enough record for a Bengal coach.
In ‘98 Coslet went 3-13, a downward spiral that normally would result in a coach being fired. But Coslet had two years left on his deal.
The Bengals could have started a search for an experienced winning coach but they allowed Bruce Coslet to continue.
In ‘99 the Bengals went 4-12. At this point firing Bruce Coslet should have been gone. Done. Run out of town. Nice Guy? Sure. A Winner? No way.
But Coslet still had a year left on his contract.
So of course the Bengals, against all conventional wisdom and common sense, brought Coslet.
The Bengals started 0-3 in 2000 at which point they finally fired Bruce Coslet. The Bengals didn’t save as much money as they did with David Shula but at least Coslet wasn’t paid a full season to sit at home.
The Point Being.....
Twice the Bengals brought back a substandard head coach with one year left on his deal so that they could save money.
The franchise lost a year of development both times but money is money and this, after all, is the Bengals.
Marvin Lewis has 4 years left on his deal. I would normally suggest that he can’t possibly be fired but there is plenty of irony here. Why is there irony?
Coaches who get fired get paid for the remainder of their contract.
Once a coach is hired by another team, the team that fired him no longer has to continue making payments.
David Shula was an embarrassment, a disaster. There are no other words that can describe him. No other team would have hired him as a head coach so the Bengals knew they would be responsible for the entire length of his deal.
Bruce Coslet had been coach of the New York Jets from 1990 to 1993, the only distinguishable positive feature being his 8-8 wild card in 1991. Adding his unsuccessful Bengal tenure to the mix guaranteed that he would not get a third opportunity as a head coach anywhere else.
Marvin Lewis is different. He is a successful coach with an above .500 career record.
Where is the irony you ask?
The irony is that Lewis’ success works AGAINST him: Lewis can expect to receive head coaching opportunities during any offseason, whether it be next January or in 2009 and beyond.
Therefore any decision to fire Marvin Lewis will not involve saving money, as in the Coslet and Shula examples.
The Bengals have a very good idea of what Lewis’ market value is. If they decide to fire Lewis, they can rest assured that they will only have to pay him for a short amount of time to sit at home before someone else hires him.
Love Smith: Poor Preparation Is The Fault Of The Head Coach
It is the responsibility of the head coach to make absolutely certain that his team is prepared to play each week, both mentally and physically.
The execution of designed plays is the result of countless hours of practice starting in the spring and continuing through to season’s end.
So explain how the Chicago Bears wasted two timeouts in the second half because they were unable to line up properly.
Timeout 1: In the 3rd quarter, the Bears had to wasted a timeout because Devin Hester was not lined up properly which would have caused a penalty had the snap taken place.
It is the responsibility of Head Coach Lovie Smith, as well as Offensive Coordinator Ron Turner, to make sure that these mistakes do not happen. This is professional football: the reason for practice is to acclimate oneself to everything that is in the playbook, audibles included. If a player is incapable of learning the playbook, don’t have them out there.
Timeout 2: One play into the 4th quarter, Lovie Smith sends out the special teams unit for a potential tying field goal. Just one problem: only 10 men were out on the field.
Result: 2nd timeout wasted. Again, this is the fault of Lovie Smith, and let’s not forget about Special Teams Coordinator Dave Toub. Special teams is all about repetition: snap hold kick snap hold kick snap hold kick. One would expect that the easiest element in special teams is to get 11 men to line up properly.
Failure to do so falls squarely on the coaches. Their job is to send out the right players.
Congratulations To The Paper QuarterBack
Despite Lovie Smith having to waste his timeouts early in the 2nd half, the Bears still had a chance to win the game.
No Timeouts, Own 3 yard line, 1:55 on the clock. Down 16-12. Brian Griese breaking the huddle.
I have stated on this blog that Brian Griese is nothing more than a paper quarterback: above average stats across the board but lacking any discernible leadership skills.
Winning quarterbacks all share one characteristic. Instead of me telling you what it is, I’ll reprint the relevant passage from the book “One More July” written by All Pro Center Bill Curry with George Plimpton.
Here is what 4 time All Pro Center Bill Curry wrote:
“The common thread of the great ones, of course, was that you had complete confidence in them-that the guy knew which plays to call, and that if you executed them properly it would work. If you had to sit there and wonder: Now if we do this and we did it just right , it still might not be the right thing...then you’d have a real problem. With the great ones you didn’t have to worry.”
Brian Griese didn’t inspire that type of confidence in Denver, Miami or Tampa Bay. A Denver columnist once described a team meeting organized by Griese: noone sat within three chairs on either side of the quarterback.
Anyway back to the final drive. 97 yards in 11 plays. Touchdown Bears. Griese was 7 of 10 for 97 yards: simply outstanding. However to truly appreciate how great Griese was, we have to isolate two sequences on the drive.
Plays 3 and 4 of the final drive: Griese completed a 10 yard pass to Adrian Peterson, who stayed in bounds. Griese calmly got his team lined up in 16 seconds to set up another play which was an inbound pass to Hester for 7 yards, again calmly got his team lined up in 16 seconds and on the next play overthrew Muhsin Muhhama stopping the clock with 1:07 left.
This sequence impressed me because Griese was directing traffic quickly and efficiently. This was not the Brian Griese everyone had microanalyzed negatively for the last 9 years: the bumbler and fumbler who couldn’t perform when it mattered.
Plays 7-8-9-10-11: this was Griese at his absolute finest. On 3rd and 3 with 49 seconds left he found Bernard Berrian open over the middle at the Eagle 36. He got the Bears lined up calmly to spike the ball within 18 seconds. No hesitation whatsoever.
Them with 31 seconds left on 2nd and 10, nice slant to the dangerous Devin Hester to the Eagle 15. Hester was tackled in bounds and once again Griese calmly lined up the Bears for a spike with 15 seconds left.
This was not the Brian Griese I expected to see: a leader who carried himself with a confident aura. Watching the drive I fully expected Griese to get in the end zone in one form or another.
Of course on the next snap Griese did just that, finding Muhsin Muhhamad in the end zone for the winning touchdown. An unexpected happy ending for everyone involved, except, I would imagine
This was the second game winning drive orchestrated by Brian Griese in 4 starts as a Bear.
While I am not going to change my overall negative opinion of Brian Griese’s overall leadership skills based on a solid comeback against the Eagles, I will say that I am fully prepared to change my mind.
Play Calling... Brian Billick...Losing Football Games
Situation: Ravens trail the Bills 19-14. Ball at the Bills 49. 2:00 remaining, Clock stopped. 2nd and 1. 1 timeout left.
Willis McGahee has rushed for 119 yards on 24 carries thus far.
Let’s look at the situation logically.
(1)With one timeout left, the Ravens cannot expect to get the ball back should they lose possession. So it is obviously four down territory. A punt or a field goal is not an option.
(2)With the ball at midfield and 2:00 left and it being 4 down territory, the clock is not yet a factor. Yes you have to hurry to the line of scrimmage if you get caught in bounds, but you can still call a running play, perhaps two running plays if need be.
(3)Willis McGahee is averaging 6 yards a carry. It is 2nd and 1. In order to move the chains you need to get a first down.
So Brian Billick’s options are very clear. What happened next?
Before we delve into the ending of the Bills Ravens game, let us first rewind to the ending of the opening Monday Night contest between the Ravens and Bengals.
Situation: Ravens trail the Bengals by 7. 1:59 remaining. 1st and Goal for the Ravens at the Bengal 6 yard line. No timeouts left.
Brian Billick called for a handoff to Willis McGahee that gained 4 yards to the 2, making it 2nd and Goal.
But instead of calling for another handoff, or multiple handoffs to McGahee, Brian Billick selected 2 passing plays, the second of which was intercepted in the end zone.
Billick’s play calling against the Bengals was horrendous.
The clock was not relevant, there was plenty of time to run the ball again on 2nd down, and failing that, run the ball again on 3rd down, and failing that, run the ball one last time on 4th down. With Willis McGahee in the backfield, the chances of scoring would be exponentially high.
However, Billick mismanaged that final sequence against the Bengals. You would expect a Super Bowl winning coach to learn from his mistakes. After all, who was the offensive coordinator for the highest scoring team in NFL history? Brian Billick, 1998 Minnesota Vikings.
Because of this failure on opening night, I fully expected Willis McGahee to run the ball on 2nd and 1 against the Bills. Either that or a QB sneak. Once the chains move quarterback Kyle Boller would still be able to call a play quickly since everyone would be roaming near the line of scrimmage.
Instead Billick called for a passing play on 2nd and 1. Incomplete.
Passing play on 3rd and 1. Incomplete.
Another passing play on 4th and 1. Incomplete.
What is wrong with this picture? 1 yard is needed, the clock is not relevant (yet) and you are throwing the ball on every dow! If the Ravens were at their own 20 this decision making would be understandable. But the ball is at their opponents 49 yard line.
Run the ball!! Get a first down !!
That is the second losscan be attributed mainly to Brian Billick’s inefficient play calling.
Let us hope I never have to write another negative word about the Ravens and their head coach.
Here is an interesting question. What do these 2 Raven losses have in common, aside from Billick refusing to run the ball?
Answer: the decision making occurred immediately after he had the two minute warning to contemplate the situation.
So perhaps it stands to reason that if you give Brian Billick too much time to think about what to do next, he will coach himself into a corner.
Well that is it for me. Once again, thank you for reading and visit my blog again on Thursday where I answer readers emails. the email address again is: jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Predictions For Week 7 In The NFL
Predictions For Week 7
I’ll be back with my Week 7 analysis for the team990.com on Monday morning as usual. In the meantime here are my predictions for Week 7.
In Week 5 I was 8-6. Last week I was 7-6. How will my predictions pan out in Week 7?
Well...here goes...
The Titans will beat the Texans: For the Texans to have any kind of playoff chance they have to win every winnable game on their schedule. The loss to Atlanta two weeks ago was a sign that they aren’t ready for the big time....yet.
Giants will beat the 49ers: Even with a week off I cannot see how a team which averages more yards per rush (3.90) than pass (3.80) can beat a team on a 4 game winning streak.
Redskins will beat the Cardinals: The Redskins have lost 2 games they should have won (NYG and GB) I am assuming that Joe Gibbs, Al Saunders and Joe Bugel have poured over the game films and figured out a way to make Jason Campbell and the offensive line more successful in the 4th quarter.
Kansas City beats Oakland: Since 2002 the Chiefs are 10-2 against the Raiders.
Colts beat the Jaguars: Monday night spotlight. Garrard vs Manning. I’ll go with the veteran.
Steelers beat the Broncos: Last year the Broncos dismantled the Steelers. I see a similar beating Sunday except the roles will be reversed.
Seahawks beat the Rams: Not that I have any confidence in Seattle, but the Rams look to have quit on Coach Scott Linehan. The Rams won’t go 0-16, but they will get a very high draft slot.
Jets beat the Bengals: The Bengals cannot tackle anyone.
The Patriots will beat the Dolphins: A small reminder to football fans. Nobody thought the Dolphins would beat the 7-0 Bears last season and they did. They won’t beat New England on Sunday however I expect a close game until early in the 4th quarter when the Brady Moss floodgates open.
Lions will beat Tampa Bay: A week off will hopefully make the lions a tougher defensive team. Don’t forget the Lions are 3-2.
Ravens will beat the Bills
Cowboys beat the Vikings
Falcons will beat the Saints
Bears will beat the Eagles
There are my predictions for tomorrow’s games. You can listen to the Team 990 for a tripleheader Sunday starting at 1:00 and ending with the late game featuring the Broncos and Steelers.
As usual I’ll be back with my analysis of the day’s action early Monday morning on the Team990.com
I’ll be back with my Week 7 analysis for the team990.com on Monday morning as usual. In the meantime here are my predictions for Week 7.
In Week 5 I was 8-6. Last week I was 7-6. How will my predictions pan out in Week 7?
Well...here goes...
The Titans will beat the Texans: For the Texans to have any kind of playoff chance they have to win every winnable game on their schedule. The loss to Atlanta two weeks ago was a sign that they aren’t ready for the big time....yet.
Giants will beat the 49ers: Even with a week off I cannot see how a team which averages more yards per rush (3.90) than pass (3.80) can beat a team on a 4 game winning streak.
Redskins will beat the Cardinals: The Redskins have lost 2 games they should have won (NYG and GB) I am assuming that Joe Gibbs, Al Saunders and Joe Bugel have poured over the game films and figured out a way to make Jason Campbell and the offensive line more successful in the 4th quarter.
Kansas City beats Oakland: Since 2002 the Chiefs are 10-2 against the Raiders.
Colts beat the Jaguars: Monday night spotlight. Garrard vs Manning. I’ll go with the veteran.
Steelers beat the Broncos: Last year the Broncos dismantled the Steelers. I see a similar beating Sunday except the roles will be reversed.
Seahawks beat the Rams: Not that I have any confidence in Seattle, but the Rams look to have quit on Coach Scott Linehan. The Rams won’t go 0-16, but they will get a very high draft slot.
Jets beat the Bengals: The Bengals cannot tackle anyone.
The Patriots will beat the Dolphins: A small reminder to football fans. Nobody thought the Dolphins would beat the 7-0 Bears last season and they did. They won’t beat New England on Sunday however I expect a close game until early in the 4th quarter when the Brady Moss floodgates open.
Lions will beat Tampa Bay: A week off will hopefully make the lions a tougher defensive team. Don’t forget the Lions are 3-2.
Ravens will beat the Bills
Cowboys beat the Vikings
Falcons will beat the Saints
Bears will beat the Eagles
There are my predictions for tomorrow’s games. You can listen to the Team 990 for a tripleheader Sunday starting at 1:00 and ending with the late game featuring the Broncos and Steelers.
As usual I’ll be back with my analysis of the day’s action early Monday morning on the Team990.com
Sunday, October 14, 2007
A Recap Of Week 6 In The NFL
Welcome back to the Jimmy G analysis of the NFL right here on the team990.com.
Any feedback, questions or requests can be emailed to jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com
Let’s get down to business shall we.
Now This Is Domination
The Patriots are 6-0 and they are simply dominating the competition.
Let us count the ways:
(1)Dallas trailed by seven at the start of the 4th quarter and that is as close as they got. In the first 5 victories this is how close the Patriots opponents have gotten at any time during the 4th quarter.
Jets 14
Chargers 24
Bills 24
Bengals 14
Browns 10
Dallas 7
The Patriots have not encountered any opponent who could stay within one possession of them in the 4th quarter until Dallas showed up. How long did it take for the Patriots to move the 7 point lead to 14? 2:39 into the 4th quarter.
The Patriots have won the following statistical categories in each of their games thus far:
Yards Per Pass Play
Yards Passing
Plays From Scrimmage
Passing Yards
Time Of Possession
Total Yards
Completions
Completion Percentage
The Patriots were outrushed by the Cowboys 97-75 or else they would be perfect in that category as well.
The Cowboys had a very slight advantage in average yards gained from scrimmage, or else the Patriots would be perfect in that category as well.
The Bufallo Bills Do Need A Hug
Despite a plus FIVE turnover differential the Bills lost to Dallas 25-24. In this decade, teams with a plus five turnover differential are 48-1. The only loss: the Bills against Dallas.
What Is Going On With Joe Gibbs?
I eviscerated Joe Gibbs three weeks ago for his lousy coaching against the Giants when the Skins blew a 14 point second half lead. Poor play calling, even worse clock management. If you want the details, please reread the relevant sections of my first blog entry.
But that was then. This is now. Surely Joe Gibbs learned from his mistakes. Three time Super Bowl winning coaches have that ability.
Okay here we go. This won’t be pretty.
Situation: Redskins trail 17-14, incomplete pass by Jason Campbell makes it 3rd and 6 with 6:57to play in the 4th quarter. Ball on the Packer 37. Clock stopped. The Skins have all 3 timeouts.
The Redskins call a timeout to set up this very important play. That is a good decision. If they get a first down they can move the ball closer for a TD. If they are short then they can either try a long field goal or gamble on 4th and short. So this timeout will set up the remainder of the drive.
Either way the Redskins have to make the decision as to whether they will go for it on 4th down before this very important 3rd down play. Every situation must be taken in advance because the Skins are trailing and down to 2 timeouts.
So what happens next? Pass to Cooley gets 4 yards, ball is in bounds and the clock is moving. It is 4th and a short 2 from the 33 yard line.
It is outdoors and it is grass. A 50 yard field goal is not the greatest option.
A punt that lands in the end zone will yield a net gain of 13 yards on the touchback. A punt is therefore not an option.
The only option? Go for it on 4th and 2.
Joe Gibbs is going for it. The absolutely correct decision.
However, before the 4th down play the Skins call their 2nd timeout.
What the hell was Joe Gibbs thinking? The first timeout is when the play selection should have been made for a possible 4th down, or at least the choices should have been narrowed.
Wasting his 2nd timeout was ridiculous considering the fact that the Skins were trailing. That timeout was going to be needed later in the 4th quarter.
Question: what good is it to spend record sums of money to get Al Saunders to be your offensive coordinator if everything is going to be disorganized?
On to the play. Pass to Betts for no gain. It was a great tackle but if you are going to gamble on 4th down any pass attempt has to hit the first down marker. The pass to Betts was 2 yards short.
Question again: You have a talented young quarterback and one of the best, if not the best, offensive coordinator in the NFL: Is that the best play you can design on 4th down with 6:45 left in the 4th quarter? A play where the fullback catches the ball AT the line of scrimmage. All this after taking a SECOND timeout and having a few minutes to think about it? Presumably during the first timeout these options were discussed and still this is the best Joe Gibbs and Al Saunders can deliver.
Anyway damage done. The Redskins got the ball back but had to punt again with 2:50 remaining.
Packers got the ball back with 2:44 left on their own 42 yard line. Redskins have one timeout and the 2 minute warning.
The clock management strategy for Joe Gibbs is simple: call timeout after the first Packer snap, assuming the Pack run the ball, then let the clock stop at 2:00 on 3rd down, then force a 4th down punt with about 1:15 left. This strategy will allow Jason Campbell to get the ball back with just over 1:00 left in the 4th quarter. All this assumes that the Pack will run the ball, since any incomplete pass will stop the clock.
In essence, the exact same strategy that 49ers coach Mike Nolan should have used last week against the Ravens. Except that Nolan decided to use his only timeout AFTER the 2:00 warning.
Why call the timeout before the 2:00 warning? To save precious seconds for your quarterback.
If you call timeout after the Pack 1st down snap there will be about 2:35 left in the game. Again, the Pack will run the ball so that the clock will hit 2:00. Then when the 3rd down snap occurs, the 40 second play clock will reset with 1:55 remaining. Stop the Pack on 3rd down and they will have to punt with 1:15 left, give a few seconds for the punt and the return and voila, you have just over a minute left for your final drive.
So what did Joe Gibbs do? Just like Mike Nolan last week, Gibbs called his timeout AFTER the 2:00 warning. What was that all about?
This meant that instead of the 3rd down snap occuring with 1:55 left, it would occur with about 1:48 remaining. A loss of seven seconds. Seven seconds can come in handy on a final drive.
Ask Tony Romo and the Cowboys what seven seconds can mean: a short sideline pass to Patrick Crayton to get a shorter kick to win the game against the Bills.
But Before We Finish With Joe Gibbs, A Few Words About Mike McCarthy
This won’t be pretty either although the final result was positive for Green Bay.
Two weeks in my blog I eviscerated Packer Head Coach Mike McCarthy for his clock management skills when he needlessly ran the ball against Minnesota with less than 2 minutes to play when a pair of kneeldowns would most certainly have won the game. The Pack won anyways so I suppose in the end it didn’t really matter.
Anyway on to the Pack-Redskins game.
Situation: Joe Gibbs didn’t call his timeout before the 2 minute warning so it is 2nd down and 12 yards to go with 2:00 at his own 40.
Next play is a 5 yard gain, Skins call their final timeout with 1:51 to play.
Clock Management Strategy 101 should follow: run the ball in bounds, clock keeps ticking until the play clock expires 40 seconds after the whistle blows the 3rd down play dead at 1:46. Math: 1:46 less 40 seconds is 1:06. Let the clock run to 1:06 and call a timeout. Then the ball will be in the air for about 10 seconds, giving the Skins a final possession with about 53 seconds remaining.
Joe Gibbs gave Mike McCarthy a gift by not calling his timeout until after the 2:00 warning. A gift of about 7 very precious seconds.
So what happens? Instead of letting the game clock go all the way down to 1:06 and calling timeout, the Pack punt the ball with 1:20 left in the game and FOURTEEN seconds remaining on the play clock. Punt lands in the end zone, Skins ball at their 20 with 1:13 left.
What should have happened? Joe Gibbs lousy clock management meant that he wouldl get the ball back for his final drive with 53 seconds left instead of 1:00, a loss of seven precious seconds.
What did happen? Mike McCarthy’s even worse clock management gave Joe Gibbs 1:13 on the clock, instead of 53 seconds, a gain of TWENTY precious seconds.
Yes the Packers are 5-1 but if this type of coaching continues they will end up losing some very important games: bank on it.
Back To Joe Gibbs And His Coaching Staff
The final drive was a disaster for Jason Campbell. Incomplete pass, sack, incomplete pass, injury to the right tackle.
The Skins are banged up on the offensive line. I realize that.
Joe Gibbs however has assembled the best coaching staff money can buy. Gibbs has Gregg Williams on defense. I already mentioned offensive coordinator Al Ssaunders. But let us not forget Offensive Line Coach Joe Bugel, long considered one of the very best, if not the best in the business.
Having the so called best assistants in the business means finding instant solutions to problems. Instant solutions are hard to find, that is true, but that is why Bugel and Saunders are supposedly the very best in the business. Because they can fix anything. They get paid well enough.
The Skins offense failed late in the 4th quarter against the Giants because Joe Gibbs and Al Saunders did a terrible job handling both Jason Campbell and the clock.
The Skins offense failed late in the 4th quarter against the Packers because the offensive line couldn’t protect Jason Campbell. That is Joe Bugel’s domain.
Joe Bugel failed against Green Bay, and he did so miserably. So the question again becomes: why hire the very best in the business if they can’t get the job done?
The Jets Had To Go For It On Fourth And One
Yes the Jets failed to get the first down but the decision made perfect sense.
Situation: Jets trail 16-9 to the Eagles, 4th and 1 from the 4, with 4:04 left, clock moving.
The Jets had 2 options.
Option 1: Kick a field goal and they are down 16-12, kick off, force a punt and go down the field one final time for the winning touchdown
Option 2: Go for it, get a first down and then a touchdown, tie the game.
The risk for option 2 is obvious: if the Jets don’t make it, they lose possession and they will still trail by seven points.
But the risk is offset by the fact that even if the Jets fail on 4th down, they can still get the ball back near midfield if they force the Eagles to punt from their end zone.
Jets Head Coach Eric Mangini made the right call: he went for it.
Unfortunately Chad Pennington threw incomplete and the Eagles ran out the clock by getting three first downs.
You Have To Feel Bad For The Dolphins
It is one thing to be 0-6 and know that your team stinks.
It is quite another to be 0-6 and be incredibly competitive.
Here is how close the Dolphins have been in the 4th quarter in each of their 6 losses
Washington: they were tied in the 4th quarter
Dallas: down 7, lost by 17
NYJets: down 3, lost by 3
Oakland: down 4, lost by 18
Houston: blew a 4th quarter lead
Cleveland: down 3, lost by 10
With just a few bounces, the Dolphins might be 2-4 or even 3-3. Oh well, maybe next year.
If This Be Motivation, Next Time Do Nothing
I predicted that the 1-3 Bengals would beat my Kansas City Chiefs. Why? Because with a week off I assumed that Bengals Coach Marvin Lewis would rip into his players and motivate them to greater success.
I was wrong. The Bengals converted just 1 of 11 3rd downs, turned the ball over three times and allowed Carson Palmer to be sacked 4 times. The Bengals lost 27-20 to fall to 1-4.
Is the season over for the Bengals?
Yes and No. In Lewis’ first two seasons, 2003 and 2004, the Bengals started 1-4 but finished 8-8, an excellent turnaround both years.
However, while 8-8 after a 1-4 start is excellent, it is still only 8-8, which is an extreme disappointment for a team that finished 11-5 in 2005, started 2006 3-0 and then lost their last 3 games with a playoff spot hanging in the balance.
A Supreme Running Attack Can Turn A Season...A Career Around
The Chargers were 1-3, in danger of falling to the back of the pack and Norv Turner’s head was on the chopping block.
Now the Chargers are 3-3 and tied for first. How did they do it?
Simple: in their 3 losses, Norv Turner called 114 passing plays compared to 72 running plays, in effect abandoning LT when the game was on the line.
In their wins over the Broncos last week and the Raiders today, the ratio has been reversed: 69 running plays compared to 39 passing plays.
Lesson learned: if you emphasize LT, the defense stacks up on the line of scrimmage, making the job of the young Philip Rivers easier. The less Rivers has to do, the better the Chargers chances of winning.
2 straight wins is good for Norv Turner: hopefully the critics will get off his back. If not for the rest of the season, at least for the next few weeks.
Statistical Notes From Sundays Games
(1)The Jags have outrushed their opponents by 31, 110, 146 and 183 the last 4 games. In week 14 last season, they outrushed the Indianapolis Colts by 341 yards.
Who do the Jags play next week on Monday night? The Colts. The Colts have rushed for 226
and 147 yards in their last 2 games.
Something has gotta give. And I will be listening to the game on the Team 990.
(2)Teams with a plus two turnover differential are 169-32 since the start of the 2004 season, including 18-2 in 2007. Who are the only teams to lose in 2007 with a plus two?
The Redskins lost to the Giants in Week 3 and the Texans to the Jags today.
(3)Teams with a higher Yards Per Pass Play are 67-20 thus far in 2007.
The Giants, Tampa Bay, Steelers, Chargers, Raiders, Lions, Browns, Colts, Browns and Patriots have won every game in which they had a higher yards per pass attempt than their opponent. They have also lost every game in which they didn’t. All except for the Colts and Patriots, who have yet to lose.
(4)If you have three more rushing attempts than your opponent you have a very good chance of winning.
Since the start of the season, teams which run the ball three or more times than their opponents are 66-9, an 88% success rate.
However, this didn’t mean much to Tennessee, Washington and the Jets.
The Bucs were plus 18 against the Bucs: lost
The Skins were plus 9 to the Pack: lost
The Jets were plus 4 to the Eagles: lost
Give Credit To Wade Phillips For A Wise Decision Monday Night
A decision completely ignored during the unbelievable Bills Cowboys game by the Monday Night Football crew was Wade Phillips calling timeout with 41 seconds left in the first half.
Situation: Cowboys down 17-7, Bills have just completed a pass to the Cowboy 36 yard line with 45 seconds to play, it is 4th down.
Wade Phillips called timeout, his 2nd of the half with 41 seconds remaining. A brilliant strategy that was somehow completely missed by Tony Kornheiser and Ron Jaworski and Mike Tirico at the time.
Why was it brilliant? Because now Bills Coach Dick Jauron would have to decide whether to (a)go for it on 4th and 2 or (b)kick a field goal or ©)punt.
If Phillips had not called timeout the Bills would have let the clock tick down to the very end and then attempt a long field goal attempt. This field goal try would come with no risk attached: it is either good or it isn’t.
However Phillips, by calling his timeout, forced Jauron into a strategic error that ultimately may have cost him the game. Jauron decided to try a very risky 53 yard field goal.
The risk was extreme: a missed field goal would give the Cowboys the ball at the spot of the kick, which was their 43 yard line, with 35 seconds to play and one timeout.
Result: missed field goal, Dallas moved down the now shortened field and kicked a 47 yard field goal.
In retrospect, Jauron should have punted the football. Had he done so the Cowboys in all likelihood would have kneeled down to end the half. That field goal allowed the Cowboys to decrease the Bills’ lead to 17-10.
I have stressed the same important point every week in my blog: coaches should use their timeouts at the end of the first half to give their quarterbacks one last chance to score points before heading into the dressing room. Wade Phillips did just that against the Bills.
But I Cannot Give Credit To Wade Phillips For His Decision On Sunday
Taking a risk against the Patriots is always, well, risky.
Situation: Cowboys trail 38-24, 10:05 left in the game, 4th and goal from the 5 yard line. The Pats have put points on the board on each of their last three possessions.
If the Cowboys gamble and fail, they will come away with nothing and still trail by 14.
But if the Cowboys kick a field goal, they will still need to score two touchdowns to beat the Patriots (assuming the Patriots don’t put any more points on the board) And to tie the game, the ‘Boys would need a TD plus a two point convert along with a field goal. This also assumes the Patriots not putting any more points on the board.
Wade Phillips kicked a field goal, cutting the Patriots lead to 11. A nice safe decision.
The Patriots took the ball 61 yards on their next possession and did what they did on their previous 3 possessions: take time off the clock and put points on the board to bring their lead back to 14. In effect the Cowboys ended up exactly where they were before kicking a field goal on 4th down with 10 minutes left: trailing by 14.
The only difference: there were now only 4 minutes remaining.
In a situation such as this, Wade Phillips should have gambled and if he failed, his defense would have had to come up big to force a Patriot punt from the end zone and if he got real lucky, perhaps obtain a safety.
That’s it for me folks. I’ll be back on Friday with my predictions for Week 7. I was 8 - 6 two weeks ago and 6 -7 this week. If you have any feedback don’t hesitate to email me at jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com
Don’t forget to tune in to the Ministry of Sports NFL recap after the Monday Night Game tomorrow night.
Until Friday.
Any feedback, questions or requests can be emailed to jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com
Let’s get down to business shall we.
Now This Is Domination
The Patriots are 6-0 and they are simply dominating the competition.
Let us count the ways:
(1)Dallas trailed by seven at the start of the 4th quarter and that is as close as they got. In the first 5 victories this is how close the Patriots opponents have gotten at any time during the 4th quarter.
Jets 14
Chargers 24
Bills 24
Bengals 14
Browns 10
Dallas 7
The Patriots have not encountered any opponent who could stay within one possession of them in the 4th quarter until Dallas showed up. How long did it take for the Patriots to move the 7 point lead to 14? 2:39 into the 4th quarter.
The Patriots have won the following statistical categories in each of their games thus far:
Yards Per Pass Play
Yards Passing
Plays From Scrimmage
Passing Yards
Time Of Possession
Total Yards
Completions
Completion Percentage
The Patriots were outrushed by the Cowboys 97-75 or else they would be perfect in that category as well.
The Cowboys had a very slight advantage in average yards gained from scrimmage, or else the Patriots would be perfect in that category as well.
The Bufallo Bills Do Need A Hug
Despite a plus FIVE turnover differential the Bills lost to Dallas 25-24. In this decade, teams with a plus five turnover differential are 48-1. The only loss: the Bills against Dallas.
What Is Going On With Joe Gibbs?
I eviscerated Joe Gibbs three weeks ago for his lousy coaching against the Giants when the Skins blew a 14 point second half lead. Poor play calling, even worse clock management. If you want the details, please reread the relevant sections of my first blog entry.
But that was then. This is now. Surely Joe Gibbs learned from his mistakes. Three time Super Bowl winning coaches have that ability.
Okay here we go. This won’t be pretty.
Situation: Redskins trail 17-14, incomplete pass by Jason Campbell makes it 3rd and 6 with 6:57to play in the 4th quarter. Ball on the Packer 37. Clock stopped. The Skins have all 3 timeouts.
The Redskins call a timeout to set up this very important play. That is a good decision. If they get a first down they can move the ball closer for a TD. If they are short then they can either try a long field goal or gamble on 4th and short. So this timeout will set up the remainder of the drive.
Either way the Redskins have to make the decision as to whether they will go for it on 4th down before this very important 3rd down play. Every situation must be taken in advance because the Skins are trailing and down to 2 timeouts.
So what happens next? Pass to Cooley gets 4 yards, ball is in bounds and the clock is moving. It is 4th and a short 2 from the 33 yard line.
It is outdoors and it is grass. A 50 yard field goal is not the greatest option.
A punt that lands in the end zone will yield a net gain of 13 yards on the touchback. A punt is therefore not an option.
The only option? Go for it on 4th and 2.
Joe Gibbs is going for it. The absolutely correct decision.
However, before the 4th down play the Skins call their 2nd timeout.
What the hell was Joe Gibbs thinking? The first timeout is when the play selection should have been made for a possible 4th down, or at least the choices should have been narrowed.
Wasting his 2nd timeout was ridiculous considering the fact that the Skins were trailing. That timeout was going to be needed later in the 4th quarter.
Question: what good is it to spend record sums of money to get Al Saunders to be your offensive coordinator if everything is going to be disorganized?
On to the play. Pass to Betts for no gain. It was a great tackle but if you are going to gamble on 4th down any pass attempt has to hit the first down marker. The pass to Betts was 2 yards short.
Question again: You have a talented young quarterback and one of the best, if not the best, offensive coordinator in the NFL: Is that the best play you can design on 4th down with 6:45 left in the 4th quarter? A play where the fullback catches the ball AT the line of scrimmage. All this after taking a SECOND timeout and having a few minutes to think about it? Presumably during the first timeout these options were discussed and still this is the best Joe Gibbs and Al Saunders can deliver.
Anyway damage done. The Redskins got the ball back but had to punt again with 2:50 remaining.
Packers got the ball back with 2:44 left on their own 42 yard line. Redskins have one timeout and the 2 minute warning.
The clock management strategy for Joe Gibbs is simple: call timeout after the first Packer snap, assuming the Pack run the ball, then let the clock stop at 2:00 on 3rd down, then force a 4th down punt with about 1:15 left. This strategy will allow Jason Campbell to get the ball back with just over 1:00 left in the 4th quarter. All this assumes that the Pack will run the ball, since any incomplete pass will stop the clock.
In essence, the exact same strategy that 49ers coach Mike Nolan should have used last week against the Ravens. Except that Nolan decided to use his only timeout AFTER the 2:00 warning.
Why call the timeout before the 2:00 warning? To save precious seconds for your quarterback.
If you call timeout after the Pack 1st down snap there will be about 2:35 left in the game. Again, the Pack will run the ball so that the clock will hit 2:00. Then when the 3rd down snap occurs, the 40 second play clock will reset with 1:55 remaining. Stop the Pack on 3rd down and they will have to punt with 1:15 left, give a few seconds for the punt and the return and voila, you have just over a minute left for your final drive.
So what did Joe Gibbs do? Just like Mike Nolan last week, Gibbs called his timeout AFTER the 2:00 warning. What was that all about?
This meant that instead of the 3rd down snap occuring with 1:55 left, it would occur with about 1:48 remaining. A loss of seven seconds. Seven seconds can come in handy on a final drive.
Ask Tony Romo and the Cowboys what seven seconds can mean: a short sideline pass to Patrick Crayton to get a shorter kick to win the game against the Bills.
But Before We Finish With Joe Gibbs, A Few Words About Mike McCarthy
This won’t be pretty either although the final result was positive for Green Bay.
Two weeks in my blog I eviscerated Packer Head Coach Mike McCarthy for his clock management skills when he needlessly ran the ball against Minnesota with less than 2 minutes to play when a pair of kneeldowns would most certainly have won the game. The Pack won anyways so I suppose in the end it didn’t really matter.
Anyway on to the Pack-Redskins game.
Situation: Joe Gibbs didn’t call his timeout before the 2 minute warning so it is 2nd down and 12 yards to go with 2:00 at his own 40.
Next play is a 5 yard gain, Skins call their final timeout with 1:51 to play.
Clock Management Strategy 101 should follow: run the ball in bounds, clock keeps ticking until the play clock expires 40 seconds after the whistle blows the 3rd down play dead at 1:46. Math: 1:46 less 40 seconds is 1:06. Let the clock run to 1:06 and call a timeout. Then the ball will be in the air for about 10 seconds, giving the Skins a final possession with about 53 seconds remaining.
Joe Gibbs gave Mike McCarthy a gift by not calling his timeout until after the 2:00 warning. A gift of about 7 very precious seconds.
So what happens? Instead of letting the game clock go all the way down to 1:06 and calling timeout, the Pack punt the ball with 1:20 left in the game and FOURTEEN seconds remaining on the play clock. Punt lands in the end zone, Skins ball at their 20 with 1:13 left.
What should have happened? Joe Gibbs lousy clock management meant that he wouldl get the ball back for his final drive with 53 seconds left instead of 1:00, a loss of seven precious seconds.
What did happen? Mike McCarthy’s even worse clock management gave Joe Gibbs 1:13 on the clock, instead of 53 seconds, a gain of TWENTY precious seconds.
Yes the Packers are 5-1 but if this type of coaching continues they will end up losing some very important games: bank on it.
Back To Joe Gibbs And His Coaching Staff
The final drive was a disaster for Jason Campbell. Incomplete pass, sack, incomplete pass, injury to the right tackle.
The Skins are banged up on the offensive line. I realize that.
Joe Gibbs however has assembled the best coaching staff money can buy. Gibbs has Gregg Williams on defense. I already mentioned offensive coordinator Al Ssaunders. But let us not forget Offensive Line Coach Joe Bugel, long considered one of the very best, if not the best in the business.
Having the so called best assistants in the business means finding instant solutions to problems. Instant solutions are hard to find, that is true, but that is why Bugel and Saunders are supposedly the very best in the business. Because they can fix anything. They get paid well enough.
The Skins offense failed late in the 4th quarter against the Giants because Joe Gibbs and Al Saunders did a terrible job handling both Jason Campbell and the clock.
The Skins offense failed late in the 4th quarter against the Packers because the offensive line couldn’t protect Jason Campbell. That is Joe Bugel’s domain.
Joe Bugel failed against Green Bay, and he did so miserably. So the question again becomes: why hire the very best in the business if they can’t get the job done?
The Jets Had To Go For It On Fourth And One
Yes the Jets failed to get the first down but the decision made perfect sense.
Situation: Jets trail 16-9 to the Eagles, 4th and 1 from the 4, with 4:04 left, clock moving.
The Jets had 2 options.
Option 1: Kick a field goal and they are down 16-12, kick off, force a punt and go down the field one final time for the winning touchdown
Option 2: Go for it, get a first down and then a touchdown, tie the game.
The risk for option 2 is obvious: if the Jets don’t make it, they lose possession and they will still trail by seven points.
But the risk is offset by the fact that even if the Jets fail on 4th down, they can still get the ball back near midfield if they force the Eagles to punt from their end zone.
Jets Head Coach Eric Mangini made the right call: he went for it.
Unfortunately Chad Pennington threw incomplete and the Eagles ran out the clock by getting three first downs.
You Have To Feel Bad For The Dolphins
It is one thing to be 0-6 and know that your team stinks.
It is quite another to be 0-6 and be incredibly competitive.
Here is how close the Dolphins have been in the 4th quarter in each of their 6 losses
Washington: they were tied in the 4th quarter
Dallas: down 7, lost by 17
NYJets: down 3, lost by 3
Oakland: down 4, lost by 18
Houston: blew a 4th quarter lead
Cleveland: down 3, lost by 10
With just a few bounces, the Dolphins might be 2-4 or even 3-3. Oh well, maybe next year.
If This Be Motivation, Next Time Do Nothing
I predicted that the 1-3 Bengals would beat my Kansas City Chiefs. Why? Because with a week off I assumed that Bengals Coach Marvin Lewis would rip into his players and motivate them to greater success.
I was wrong. The Bengals converted just 1 of 11 3rd downs, turned the ball over three times and allowed Carson Palmer to be sacked 4 times. The Bengals lost 27-20 to fall to 1-4.
Is the season over for the Bengals?
Yes and No. In Lewis’ first two seasons, 2003 and 2004, the Bengals started 1-4 but finished 8-8, an excellent turnaround both years.
However, while 8-8 after a 1-4 start is excellent, it is still only 8-8, which is an extreme disappointment for a team that finished 11-5 in 2005, started 2006 3-0 and then lost their last 3 games with a playoff spot hanging in the balance.
A Supreme Running Attack Can Turn A Season...A Career Around
The Chargers were 1-3, in danger of falling to the back of the pack and Norv Turner’s head was on the chopping block.
Now the Chargers are 3-3 and tied for first. How did they do it?
Simple: in their 3 losses, Norv Turner called 114 passing plays compared to 72 running plays, in effect abandoning LT when the game was on the line.
In their wins over the Broncos last week and the Raiders today, the ratio has been reversed: 69 running plays compared to 39 passing plays.
Lesson learned: if you emphasize LT, the defense stacks up on the line of scrimmage, making the job of the young Philip Rivers easier. The less Rivers has to do, the better the Chargers chances of winning.
2 straight wins is good for Norv Turner: hopefully the critics will get off his back. If not for the rest of the season, at least for the next few weeks.
Statistical Notes From Sundays Games
(1)The Jags have outrushed their opponents by 31, 110, 146 and 183 the last 4 games. In week 14 last season, they outrushed the Indianapolis Colts by 341 yards.
Who do the Jags play next week on Monday night? The Colts. The Colts have rushed for 226
and 147 yards in their last 2 games.
Something has gotta give. And I will be listening to the game on the Team 990.
(2)Teams with a plus two turnover differential are 169-32 since the start of the 2004 season, including 18-2 in 2007. Who are the only teams to lose in 2007 with a plus two?
The Redskins lost to the Giants in Week 3 and the Texans to the Jags today.
(3)Teams with a higher Yards Per Pass Play are 67-20 thus far in 2007.
The Giants, Tampa Bay, Steelers, Chargers, Raiders, Lions, Browns, Colts, Browns and Patriots have won every game in which they had a higher yards per pass attempt than their opponent. They have also lost every game in which they didn’t. All except for the Colts and Patriots, who have yet to lose.
(4)If you have three more rushing attempts than your opponent you have a very good chance of winning.
Since the start of the season, teams which run the ball three or more times than their opponents are 66-9, an 88% success rate.
However, this didn’t mean much to Tennessee, Washington and the Jets.
The Bucs were plus 18 against the Bucs: lost
The Skins were plus 9 to the Pack: lost
The Jets were plus 4 to the Eagles: lost
Give Credit To Wade Phillips For A Wise Decision Monday Night
A decision completely ignored during the unbelievable Bills Cowboys game by the Monday Night Football crew was Wade Phillips calling timeout with 41 seconds left in the first half.
Situation: Cowboys down 17-7, Bills have just completed a pass to the Cowboy 36 yard line with 45 seconds to play, it is 4th down.
Wade Phillips called timeout, his 2nd of the half with 41 seconds remaining. A brilliant strategy that was somehow completely missed by Tony Kornheiser and Ron Jaworski and Mike Tirico at the time.
Why was it brilliant? Because now Bills Coach Dick Jauron would have to decide whether to (a)go for it on 4th and 2 or (b)kick a field goal or ©)punt.
If Phillips had not called timeout the Bills would have let the clock tick down to the very end and then attempt a long field goal attempt. This field goal try would come with no risk attached: it is either good or it isn’t.
However Phillips, by calling his timeout, forced Jauron into a strategic error that ultimately may have cost him the game. Jauron decided to try a very risky 53 yard field goal.
The risk was extreme: a missed field goal would give the Cowboys the ball at the spot of the kick, which was their 43 yard line, with 35 seconds to play and one timeout.
Result: missed field goal, Dallas moved down the now shortened field and kicked a 47 yard field goal.
In retrospect, Jauron should have punted the football. Had he done so the Cowboys in all likelihood would have kneeled down to end the half. That field goal allowed the Cowboys to decrease the Bills’ lead to 17-10.
I have stressed the same important point every week in my blog: coaches should use their timeouts at the end of the first half to give their quarterbacks one last chance to score points before heading into the dressing room. Wade Phillips did just that against the Bills.
But I Cannot Give Credit To Wade Phillips For His Decision On Sunday
Taking a risk against the Patriots is always, well, risky.
Situation: Cowboys trail 38-24, 10:05 left in the game, 4th and goal from the 5 yard line. The Pats have put points on the board on each of their last three possessions.
If the Cowboys gamble and fail, they will come away with nothing and still trail by 14.
But if the Cowboys kick a field goal, they will still need to score two touchdowns to beat the Patriots (assuming the Patriots don’t put any more points on the board) And to tie the game, the ‘Boys would need a TD plus a two point convert along with a field goal. This also assumes the Patriots not putting any more points on the board.
Wade Phillips kicked a field goal, cutting the Patriots lead to 11. A nice safe decision.
The Patriots took the ball 61 yards on their next possession and did what they did on their previous 3 possessions: take time off the clock and put points on the board to bring their lead back to 14. In effect the Cowboys ended up exactly where they were before kicking a field goal on 4th down with 10 minutes left: trailing by 14.
The only difference: there were now only 4 minutes remaining.
In a situation such as this, Wade Phillips should have gambled and if he failed, his defense would have had to come up big to force a Patriot punt from the end zone and if he got real lucky, perhaps obtain a safety.
That’s it for me folks. I’ll be back on Friday with my predictions for Week 7. I was 8 - 6 two weeks ago and 6 -7 this week. If you have any feedback don’t hesitate to email me at jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com
Don’t forget to tune in to the Ministry of Sports NFL recap after the Monday Night Game tomorrow night.
Until Friday.
Saturday, October 13, 2007
Predictions for Week 6 in the NFL
Welcome back to the team990.com and my predictions for Week 6. Any comments or suggestions, please continue sending the emails to jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com
I was 8 of 14 last week and both of my upset specials came up short. Well short.
Here goes for this week:
Ravens will beat the Rams: I cannot imagine Gus Frerotte doing much against the Ravens D, although Derek Anderson and Kurt Warner didn’t seem to have any problems.
Browns will beat the Dolphins: It’s too bad about Miami. They have been very competitive in each of their losses which makes their 0-5 start that much more painful. Cleveland will get to 3-3 because unlike Miami, they have everything to play for.
Jaguars will beat the Texans: Is anyone still criticizing Jack Del Rio’s decision to release Byron Leftwich?
Eagles will beat the Jets: The Jets in the last two weeks blew a 4th quarter lead to the Giants and were tied with the Bills before losing. The Eagles will be well rested and one would assume that Coach Andy Reid will find a better way to protect Donovan McNabb.
Cardinals will beat the Panthers: The Cardinals continue to protect their QB’s (with Leinart gone, make that QB) and run the ball efficiently, so does that mean that Russ Grimm will be a head coach somewhere in 2008?
Chargers will beat the Raiders: If the Chargers can’t beat the Raiders after completely dismatling Denver, that would be proof enough that Norv Turner shouldn’t be a head coach in the NFL.
Giants will beat the Falcons: The Falcons are surprisingly competitive for a 1-4 team but after watching Byron Leftwich last Sunday, I just don’t trust that they’ll beat Coughlin’s boys.
Bears will beat the Vikings: The Vikings cannot throw the ball. The Bears have all the momentum after winning a game they didn’t deserve in Green Bay.
Upset Special of the Week
Redskins will beat the Packers: The Packers balloon burst on national TV when they blew a very winnable game to a divisional rival. Joe Gibbs and all his old assistant coaches are gearing up for one final run before retiring into the sunset: I expect that they will be well prepared for every game her on out.
Bengals will beat the Chiefs: The Bengals had a week off so Coach Marvin Lewis will have used the time to give a tongue lashing to every Bengal player who is underachieving. Which is, every Bengal player.
Titans will beat the Bucs: The Bucs have no running game whatsoever with the injuries to Alstott, Pittman and Cadillac.
Patriots will beat Dallas: I am guessing that the extra day to prepare will make all the difference for Coach Bill Belichick.
Seahawks will beat the Saints: The Saints are guaranteed to win a game very soon. Just not this week on national TV in the Pacific Northwest.
There goes with my predictions. Enjoy the games and don’t forget to tune in to the Team 990 for Matthew Ross and the NFL recap at midnight following all the gridiron action.
I was 8 of 14 last week and both of my upset specials came up short. Well short.
Here goes for this week:
Ravens will beat the Rams: I cannot imagine Gus Frerotte doing much against the Ravens D, although Derek Anderson and Kurt Warner didn’t seem to have any problems.
Browns will beat the Dolphins: It’s too bad about Miami. They have been very competitive in each of their losses which makes their 0-5 start that much more painful. Cleveland will get to 3-3 because unlike Miami, they have everything to play for.
Jaguars will beat the Texans: Is anyone still criticizing Jack Del Rio’s decision to release Byron Leftwich?
Eagles will beat the Jets: The Jets in the last two weeks blew a 4th quarter lead to the Giants and were tied with the Bills before losing. The Eagles will be well rested and one would assume that Coach Andy Reid will find a better way to protect Donovan McNabb.
Cardinals will beat the Panthers: The Cardinals continue to protect their QB’s (with Leinart gone, make that QB) and run the ball efficiently, so does that mean that Russ Grimm will be a head coach somewhere in 2008?
Chargers will beat the Raiders: If the Chargers can’t beat the Raiders after completely dismatling Denver, that would be proof enough that Norv Turner shouldn’t be a head coach in the NFL.
Giants will beat the Falcons: The Falcons are surprisingly competitive for a 1-4 team but after watching Byron Leftwich last Sunday, I just don’t trust that they’ll beat Coughlin’s boys.
Bears will beat the Vikings: The Vikings cannot throw the ball. The Bears have all the momentum after winning a game they didn’t deserve in Green Bay.
Upset Special of the Week
Redskins will beat the Packers: The Packers balloon burst on national TV when they blew a very winnable game to a divisional rival. Joe Gibbs and all his old assistant coaches are gearing up for one final run before retiring into the sunset: I expect that they will be well prepared for every game her on out.
Bengals will beat the Chiefs: The Bengals had a week off so Coach Marvin Lewis will have used the time to give a tongue lashing to every Bengal player who is underachieving. Which is, every Bengal player.
Titans will beat the Bucs: The Bucs have no running game whatsoever with the injuries to Alstott, Pittman and Cadillac.
Patriots will beat Dallas: I am guessing that the extra day to prepare will make all the difference for Coach Bill Belichick.
Seahawks will beat the Saints: The Saints are guaranteed to win a game very soon. Just not this week on national TV in the Pacific Northwest.
There goes with my predictions. Enjoy the games and don’t forget to tune in to the Team 990 for Matthew Ross and the NFL recap at midnight following all the gridiron action.
Monday, October 8, 2007
Everything That Is The NFL: Week 5
Welcome back Team 990.com readers to more NFL analysis from me Jimmy G. Thank you for the emails, please continue sending them to jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com. I’ll go into the mailbag next week, time permitting, I promise.
Anyway, lots to cover from today’s action, so let’s get to it.
What Was Bobby Petrino Thinking?
Situation: Falcons down 7 to the Titans. Falcons have a first and goal at the 1 yard line with 2 minutes remaining.
4 down territory, Falcons will not get the ball back if they fail, so the clock is irrelevant.
I expected the Falcons to call 4 straight running plays until they stuffed the ball into the end zone. They had 4 plays to work with. If one doesn’t work another will. Nothing complicated.
Instead on first down Bobby Petrino calls for a pitch/toss to Warwick Dunn that was not going to start developing until Dunn was 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage. How can Coach Petrino call for a slow developing play like this?
How difficult would it have been to just run the ball normally! By this time, Byron Leftwich had replaced Joey Harrington, and he looked awful. At the time he was 2 of 6 for 28 yards and totally out of sync with his receivers, which is normal for someone still learning the playbook. How can the Falcons call for anything other than a simple handoff?
Strong rush up the middle, Leftwich is hit as he turns to toss the ball to Dunn, fumbles, Dunn recovers at the 9 yard line. 8 yard loss. Now it is 2nd down from the 9 and the strategy completely changes.
Whereas before the Falcons had the luxury of minimizing the struggling Byron Leftwich by running 4 times, now they are in an obvious passing situation. 2 incomplete passes, mixed in with an offside by Tennessee gave the Falcons one last chance at the 4 yard line.
The 8 yard loss came back to haunt the Falcons. 4th and goal from the 4 is a passing situation, and Byron Leftwich is the Falcon quarterback. Leftwich got sacked and for the 2nd time in 3 weeks a team with a first and goal from the 1 fails to force overtime (Washington blowing the game against the Giants is the other: scroll down to my Week 3 thoughts for more information)
I Hope Trent Green Will Be Okay
As a Chiefs fan, I loved watching Trent Green’s aerial theatrics in the Dick Vermeil era.
Herman Edwards took over last year and I had the same high hopes that Trent would continue to excel, hopefully leading us to a playoff spot.
Trent missed 8 games in 2006 due to a serious concussion. When he came back, he led the Chiefs to the playoffs despite struggling down the stretch.
In the offseason however, Trent was traded to Miami. While I was sad to see him go, I was also happy for Trent. With the Dolphins he would remain a starting quarterback, something that Coach Edwards was not going to guarantee.
Now Trent Green has suffered another concussion, on a play where he showed just how far he’ll go to help his team: he provided a block on a running play.
Here’s hoping that whatever happens from now on, Trent Green makes the right decision as regards his future.
Some Quick Statistical Bits And Pieces
(1)The Packers were outrushed in each of their first 4 games, yet they managed to go 4-0. The Pack outrushed the Bears tonight and lost.
(2)There have been 2085 regular season games played since the start of the 1999 season. On ten occasions has a team run the ball so poorly that they gained 10 yards or less in a game. Would you have imagined that the Kansas City Chiefs, with Larry Johnson and the more than capable Michael Bennett would be one of those teams? The Chiefs ran for a pitiful 10 yards on 10 attempts.
(3)The Jacksonville Jaguars gave up 282 rushing yards to Tennessee on opening day and lost. Since then, the Jags have given up, in order, 82, 47 and 10. They have won all three games.
(4)The Falcons were a PLUS THREE in the turnover differential department against the Titans.
In 2006, teams with a plus three were 32-1. Since 2000, teams with a plus three turnover differential in a game are 229-25, a winning percentage of 90.2%
The Falcons lost to the Titans.
(5)Teams that averaged 2.5 yards a pass play more than their opponents in a game were 27-3 in 2007 heading into Week 5. The Chargers, Steelers and Texans all averaged 2.5 yards per pass play more than their opponents in Week 5. And the won. Yards Per Pass Play is such an important statistic. I’ll delve more into that subject in the coming weeks.
I’ll Stop Criticizing Tom Coughlin
Two weeks ago I criticized Tom Coughlin for not calling a timeout to give Eli Manning one final possession in the 1st half against the Redskins.
Against the Jets, down 14-7 with 25 seconds left in the half, 2 timeouts, on his own 21 yard line, I expected Coughlin to run out the clock.
He didn’t. Eli Manning came out throwing and he was picked off on the first play. The Jets kicked a field goal and took a 10 point lead at halftime.
I am not criticizing Coach Coughlin. He made the right call. 25 seconds is enough time to try two passes up the middle and perhaps a sideline pattern.
Sometimes you have to take risks and Coughlin was ready and willing.
When the Giants were 0-2, the media was calling for Coughlin to be fired. Now the Giants are 3-2. People everywhere should note that under Tom Coughlin, the Giants have made the playoffs 2 years in a row. If things continue to go well, that number could jump to three. Who among us will be talking then?
The Saints Are Not Marching In
The Saints are 0-4 and there is one stat that is SCREAMING to be heard.
Last season, the Saints under Drew Brees threw for 4509 yards on 604 pass plays, an average of 7.47 yards per pass play. The league average was 6.02.
The league average yards per pass play this season (pass attempts plus sacks) has increased to 6.20.
The Saints in 2007 however, have regressed, and it is not a pretty sight.
Drew Brees has taken every snap and has 906 net passing yards on 177 pass attempts and 4 sacks. The Saints average yards per pass play: 5.01.
That is a difference of ALMOST TWO AND A HALF YARDS per pass play (7.47 less 5.01).
Not only that, but in 2006 the Saints opponents threw for 2854 net passing yards on 512 dropbacks, an average of 5.57 yards a pass play.
In 2007, the Saints are giving up an astronomical 9.47 yards a pass play (872 net yards on 92 dropbacks). THAT IS ALMOST 4 YARDS MORE PER PASS PLAY than in 2006.
The math is incredibly scary:
On offense: a net loss of 2.47 yards per pass play compared to 2006
On defense: a net loss of 3.90 yards per pass play compared to 2006.
Add it up: 2.47 plus 3.90 equals 6.37 yards per pass play that the Saints have lost in 2007.
And you wonder why the Saints are winless.
Turn Out The Lights...The Party’s Over
It is a broken record however the music must be repeated...again.
0 and 5 teams do not make the playoffs. Are you listening Rams and Dolphins fans? Saints fans, you might be next.
Since the 1995 expansion, 24 teams have started the season 0 and 5. None made the playoffs.
2 teams were able to finish at 8-8: (Washington 2001 and Tennessee 2006)
6 teams finished at 2-14
5 teams finished at 3-13
4 teams finished at 4-12
7 teams finished between 5 -11 and 7-9
The Lights Are Flickering....The Party’s Almost Over
In Mike Shanahan’s first 12 seasons, the Denver Broncos have made the playoffs 7 times.
In 6 of those 7 seasons, the Broncos started either 4-1 or 5-0.
The one exception: 2000. After a 2-3 start, the Broncos won 9 of their last 11 and qualified as a wild card before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Ravens.
After the shellacking at the hands of the Chargers, the Broncos are 2-3. Are there any similarities between version 2007 and version 2000?
Not really. In 2000, the Broncos had the easiest adjusted schedule in the NFL. Their opponents had a combined record of 98-142 (when adjusted to exclude Bronco games)
If you take the argument further, the 2000 Broncos have had the easiest schedule in the NFL this ENTIRE decade. That certainly helped get them to 11-5 in 2000.
Here is the rest of the top 10
1. Denver 2000 98-142 .408
2. Oakland 2000 104-136 .433
3. Pittsburgh 2001 104-136 .433
4. Kansas City 2003 104-136 .433
5. Arizona 2001 105-135 .438
6. Baltimore 2000 105-135 .438
7. San Francisco 2000 105-135 .438
8. New Orleans 2000 106-134 .441
9. Atlanta 2004 106-134 .441
10. Green Bay 2001, Seattle 2004, Chicago 2006, Seattle 2005 and St Louis 2003 all tied with adjusted opponents records of 107-133 .446
In 2007, looking at the Bronco schedule, there doesn’t seem to be many ‘easy games’.
The Broncos 16 opponents in 2007 have a combined record of 41-33, 39-30 if you adjust the Broncos record from the equation. We may be looking at a situation where Bronco opponents look at Denver on the schedule and say “hmmmmm....that is one we should win”.
What Does A 4-1 Record Really Mean?
A 4-1 record does not give you any guarantee of a playoff spot, but it certainly helps.
The Steelers and the Packers, and perhaps the Cowboys if they lose to the Bills, fit into this category.
So what about a 4-1 start? Let’s look at this decade as an example.
In 2006, 8 teams started 4-1. Two teams missed the playoffs: Denver and St Louis.
In 2005, all three teams that started 4-1 made the playoffs.
In 2004, 6 teams started 4-1. One team missed the playoffs: The NY Giants.
In 2003, 3 of the 4 teams starting 4-1 made the playoffs: The Dolphins did not.
In 2002, 9 teams started 4-1: only five made the playoffs. Denver (as in 2006), Miami (as in 2003) New Orleans and San Diego did not.
In 2001, all five teams starting 4-1 qualified for the playoffs.
In 2000, 4 of the 5 teams that started 4-1 made the playoffs: the NY Jets were the exception.
There you have it: 31 of the 40 teams this decade that started the season 4-1 ended up in the postseason.
Okay, One Final Time With Early Season Records....I Promise
This section fits segues perfectly for the 1-4 Jets and the 1-4 Falcons, and after the Monday night game, perhaps the Bills.
Next week, three teams at 1-3 return to action: the Bengals, Vikings and Eagles. They may have to cancel any travel plans starting in early January.
Since the NFL expanded to 30 teams in 1995, 62 teams started the season with a 1-4 record. Only three teams ended up in the playoffs.
The exceptions: the Jets and Titans in 2002, and the Packers in 2004.
59 out of 62 that started 1-4 failed to make the playoffs. Not good odds.
Kudos To The Redskins For A Speedy Recovery
I was worried about the Washington Redskins. They had a week off to forget about the debacle against the Giants, where they blew a 14 point 2nd half lead. I thought the bye week came at the wrong time.
The Skins defence forgot. They showed up to play, sacking Jon Kitna five times and holding the Lions offense to a meagre 76 yards on 34 dropbacks (29 passes plus the 5 sacks) If you are calculating, that is 2.23 yards a dropback against a Lions offense that, in the first 4 games averaged 7.7, 6.0, 7.1 and 7.2 yards a pass play.
And what about Jason Campbell? How would Campbell recover after being responsible for the brutal clock management against the Giants that prevented the Skins from getting an additional play at the goal line to force overtime?
23 of 29 for 248 yards, 2 touchdowns, no interceptions, no sacks.
The Skins are 3-1 with a brutal schedule upcoming: at 4-1 Green Bay, home to the surging 3-2 Cardinals and at 5-0 New England. They needed this win.
Time Management Supervisor Needed for Mike Nolan And The 49ers?
I criticized San Francisco Head Coach Mike Nolan for not gambling on 4th down with less than 6 minutes to play last week against Seattle down three scores. I hate picking on him again but I cannot resist nitpicking.
Situation: Ravens lead 9-7, they have the ball at their 48 yard line with 2:15 left in the 4th quarter.
It is 3rd down and 4.
The 49ers need the ball back. They only have one timeout remaining, plus the 2 minute warning.
If the 49ers stop the Ravens on this 3rd down play, they can let the clock run to the 2 minute warning, receive the punt and start their final drive with the timeout still in their pocket. Of course if the Ravens decide to pass and they throw incomplete, the Niners can start their drive before the 2 minute warning, in effect getting one extra play.
However, if the Ravens were to get a first down on this 3rd down play, the Niners would have to spend their timeout on defence. Does it matter if they spend the timeout before or after the 2 minute warning?
Steve McNair found Derrick Mason for an 18 yard gain and a first down, in bounds, clock moving with 2:10 left.
Let’s do the calculations for Niners Head Coach Mike Nolan.
If Coach Nolan calls his final timeout immediately, with 2:10 left, the Ravens would have to snap the ball before the 2 minute warning. Assuming the Ravens don’t get a first down on this play, the clock would stop on 2nd down with 2:00 remaining.
If Ravens coach Brian Billick does the expected, which is run the ball twice, the following would occur,:
(1)On 2nd down, Ravens snap the ball at 2:00,
(2)the play would be whistled dead at 1:55, play clock reset at 40
(3)On 3rd down Ravens snap the ball at 1:16 (1:55 less 39 seconds)
(4)If no first down occurs, and that admittedly is a big if, the Ravens would call a timeout to either bring out their field goal or punting unit once the play clock reads 1 second.
Recap: Mike Nolan calls timeout before the 2 minute warning, the Ravens snap the ball at 2:00 and 1:16, play clock resets at 1:11, runs 39 seconds before the Ravens call their timeout. Got that?
If all this happens, the Ravens would either punt or kick a long field goal with 28 seconds to play. They would most likely punt because a missed long field would give the Niners excellent field position and it is only a two point game.
Best case scenario: the Niners get the ball back with about 20 seconds, maybe 22 seconds left in the game deep in their own territory.
I realize that there isn’t much time but stranger things have happened.
But the only way for the Niners to get even 22 seconds on their final drive is to call a timeout BEFORE the 2 minute warning.
So what did Coach Nolan do? He let the clock run down to 2 minutes without taking his final timeout.
In effect, if he calls his timeout with 1:55 remaining and it is 2nd down he has lost 5 precious seconds for a potential final drive.
We’ve already established that the best case scenario for a final drive is perhaps 22 seconds. By not calling his timeout until AFTER the 2 minute warning, Coach Nolan took 5 seconds off the clock for his team.
5 seconds might not seem like much, but in football, 5 seconds equals one additional play. That is a lot of time.
What happened in the end? The Ravens ran the ball at 2:00 when it was first down, and the Niners hemmed and hawed until calling their final timeout with 1:47 left. They let 8 precious seconds tick away (the play was whistled dead at 1:55) for no reason.
Then on the next play, Willis McGahee ran for a first down, in effect, making the last few paragraphs meaningless. Unless, of course, the Niners have a similar situation come up in a future game and make the same mistakes.
Hopefully this is the last time I criticize Coach Nolan.
And that’s it for me Jimmy G. I hope you enjoyed reading my analysis. I’ll be back later this week with my predictions for Week 6 in the NFL.
Until then, goodbye.
Anyway, lots to cover from today’s action, so let’s get to it.
What Was Bobby Petrino Thinking?
Situation: Falcons down 7 to the Titans. Falcons have a first and goal at the 1 yard line with 2 minutes remaining.
4 down territory, Falcons will not get the ball back if they fail, so the clock is irrelevant.
I expected the Falcons to call 4 straight running plays until they stuffed the ball into the end zone. They had 4 plays to work with. If one doesn’t work another will. Nothing complicated.
Instead on first down Bobby Petrino calls for a pitch/toss to Warwick Dunn that was not going to start developing until Dunn was 5 yards behind the line of scrimmage. How can Coach Petrino call for a slow developing play like this?
How difficult would it have been to just run the ball normally! By this time, Byron Leftwich had replaced Joey Harrington, and he looked awful. At the time he was 2 of 6 for 28 yards and totally out of sync with his receivers, which is normal for someone still learning the playbook. How can the Falcons call for anything other than a simple handoff?
Strong rush up the middle, Leftwich is hit as he turns to toss the ball to Dunn, fumbles, Dunn recovers at the 9 yard line. 8 yard loss. Now it is 2nd down from the 9 and the strategy completely changes.
Whereas before the Falcons had the luxury of minimizing the struggling Byron Leftwich by running 4 times, now they are in an obvious passing situation. 2 incomplete passes, mixed in with an offside by Tennessee gave the Falcons one last chance at the 4 yard line.
The 8 yard loss came back to haunt the Falcons. 4th and goal from the 4 is a passing situation, and Byron Leftwich is the Falcon quarterback. Leftwich got sacked and for the 2nd time in 3 weeks a team with a first and goal from the 1 fails to force overtime (Washington blowing the game against the Giants is the other: scroll down to my Week 3 thoughts for more information)
I Hope Trent Green Will Be Okay
As a Chiefs fan, I loved watching Trent Green’s aerial theatrics in the Dick Vermeil era.
Herman Edwards took over last year and I had the same high hopes that Trent would continue to excel, hopefully leading us to a playoff spot.
Trent missed 8 games in 2006 due to a serious concussion. When he came back, he led the Chiefs to the playoffs despite struggling down the stretch.
In the offseason however, Trent was traded to Miami. While I was sad to see him go, I was also happy for Trent. With the Dolphins he would remain a starting quarterback, something that Coach Edwards was not going to guarantee.
Now Trent Green has suffered another concussion, on a play where he showed just how far he’ll go to help his team: he provided a block on a running play.
Here’s hoping that whatever happens from now on, Trent Green makes the right decision as regards his future.
Some Quick Statistical Bits And Pieces
(1)The Packers were outrushed in each of their first 4 games, yet they managed to go 4-0. The Pack outrushed the Bears tonight and lost.
(2)There have been 2085 regular season games played since the start of the 1999 season. On ten occasions has a team run the ball so poorly that they gained 10 yards or less in a game. Would you have imagined that the Kansas City Chiefs, with Larry Johnson and the more than capable Michael Bennett would be one of those teams? The Chiefs ran for a pitiful 10 yards on 10 attempts.
(3)The Jacksonville Jaguars gave up 282 rushing yards to Tennessee on opening day and lost. Since then, the Jags have given up, in order, 82, 47 and 10. They have won all three games.
(4)The Falcons were a PLUS THREE in the turnover differential department against the Titans.
In 2006, teams with a plus three were 32-1. Since 2000, teams with a plus three turnover differential in a game are 229-25, a winning percentage of 90.2%
The Falcons lost to the Titans.
(5)Teams that averaged 2.5 yards a pass play more than their opponents in a game were 27-3 in 2007 heading into Week 5. The Chargers, Steelers and Texans all averaged 2.5 yards per pass play more than their opponents in Week 5. And the won. Yards Per Pass Play is such an important statistic. I’ll delve more into that subject in the coming weeks.
I’ll Stop Criticizing Tom Coughlin
Two weeks ago I criticized Tom Coughlin for not calling a timeout to give Eli Manning one final possession in the 1st half against the Redskins.
Against the Jets, down 14-7 with 25 seconds left in the half, 2 timeouts, on his own 21 yard line, I expected Coughlin to run out the clock.
He didn’t. Eli Manning came out throwing and he was picked off on the first play. The Jets kicked a field goal and took a 10 point lead at halftime.
I am not criticizing Coach Coughlin. He made the right call. 25 seconds is enough time to try two passes up the middle and perhaps a sideline pattern.
Sometimes you have to take risks and Coughlin was ready and willing.
When the Giants were 0-2, the media was calling for Coughlin to be fired. Now the Giants are 3-2. People everywhere should note that under Tom Coughlin, the Giants have made the playoffs 2 years in a row. If things continue to go well, that number could jump to three. Who among us will be talking then?
The Saints Are Not Marching In
The Saints are 0-4 and there is one stat that is SCREAMING to be heard.
Last season, the Saints under Drew Brees threw for 4509 yards on 604 pass plays, an average of 7.47 yards per pass play. The league average was 6.02.
The league average yards per pass play this season (pass attempts plus sacks) has increased to 6.20.
The Saints in 2007 however, have regressed, and it is not a pretty sight.
Drew Brees has taken every snap and has 906 net passing yards on 177 pass attempts and 4 sacks. The Saints average yards per pass play: 5.01.
That is a difference of ALMOST TWO AND A HALF YARDS per pass play (7.47 less 5.01).
Not only that, but in 2006 the Saints opponents threw for 2854 net passing yards on 512 dropbacks, an average of 5.57 yards a pass play.
In 2007, the Saints are giving up an astronomical 9.47 yards a pass play (872 net yards on 92 dropbacks). THAT IS ALMOST 4 YARDS MORE PER PASS PLAY than in 2006.
The math is incredibly scary:
On offense: a net loss of 2.47 yards per pass play compared to 2006
On defense: a net loss of 3.90 yards per pass play compared to 2006.
Add it up: 2.47 plus 3.90 equals 6.37 yards per pass play that the Saints have lost in 2007.
And you wonder why the Saints are winless.
Turn Out The Lights...The Party’s Over
It is a broken record however the music must be repeated...again.
0 and 5 teams do not make the playoffs. Are you listening Rams and Dolphins fans? Saints fans, you might be next.
Since the 1995 expansion, 24 teams have started the season 0 and 5. None made the playoffs.
2 teams were able to finish at 8-8: (Washington 2001 and Tennessee 2006)
6 teams finished at 2-14
5 teams finished at 3-13
4 teams finished at 4-12
7 teams finished between 5 -11 and 7-9
The Lights Are Flickering....The Party’s Almost Over
In Mike Shanahan’s first 12 seasons, the Denver Broncos have made the playoffs 7 times.
In 6 of those 7 seasons, the Broncos started either 4-1 or 5-0.
The one exception: 2000. After a 2-3 start, the Broncos won 9 of their last 11 and qualified as a wild card before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Ravens.
After the shellacking at the hands of the Chargers, the Broncos are 2-3. Are there any similarities between version 2007 and version 2000?
Not really. In 2000, the Broncos had the easiest adjusted schedule in the NFL. Their opponents had a combined record of 98-142 (when adjusted to exclude Bronco games)
If you take the argument further, the 2000 Broncos have had the easiest schedule in the NFL this ENTIRE decade. That certainly helped get them to 11-5 in 2000.
Here is the rest of the top 10
1. Denver 2000 98-142 .408
2. Oakland 2000 104-136 .433
3. Pittsburgh 2001 104-136 .433
4. Kansas City 2003 104-136 .433
5. Arizona 2001 105-135 .438
6. Baltimore 2000 105-135 .438
7. San Francisco 2000 105-135 .438
8. New Orleans 2000 106-134 .441
9. Atlanta 2004 106-134 .441
10. Green Bay 2001, Seattle 2004, Chicago 2006, Seattle 2005 and St Louis 2003 all tied with adjusted opponents records of 107-133 .446
In 2007, looking at the Bronco schedule, there doesn’t seem to be many ‘easy games’.
The Broncos 16 opponents in 2007 have a combined record of 41-33, 39-30 if you adjust the Broncos record from the equation. We may be looking at a situation where Bronco opponents look at Denver on the schedule and say “hmmmmm....that is one we should win”.
What Does A 4-1 Record Really Mean?
A 4-1 record does not give you any guarantee of a playoff spot, but it certainly helps.
The Steelers and the Packers, and perhaps the Cowboys if they lose to the Bills, fit into this category.
So what about a 4-1 start? Let’s look at this decade as an example.
In 2006, 8 teams started 4-1. Two teams missed the playoffs: Denver and St Louis.
In 2005, all three teams that started 4-1 made the playoffs.
In 2004, 6 teams started 4-1. One team missed the playoffs: The NY Giants.
In 2003, 3 of the 4 teams starting 4-1 made the playoffs: The Dolphins did not.
In 2002, 9 teams started 4-1: only five made the playoffs. Denver (as in 2006), Miami (as in 2003) New Orleans and San Diego did not.
In 2001, all five teams starting 4-1 qualified for the playoffs.
In 2000, 4 of the 5 teams that started 4-1 made the playoffs: the NY Jets were the exception.
There you have it: 31 of the 40 teams this decade that started the season 4-1 ended up in the postseason.
Okay, One Final Time With Early Season Records....I Promise
This section fits segues perfectly for the 1-4 Jets and the 1-4 Falcons, and after the Monday night game, perhaps the Bills.
Next week, three teams at 1-3 return to action: the Bengals, Vikings and Eagles. They may have to cancel any travel plans starting in early January.
Since the NFL expanded to 30 teams in 1995, 62 teams started the season with a 1-4 record. Only three teams ended up in the playoffs.
The exceptions: the Jets and Titans in 2002, and the Packers in 2004.
59 out of 62 that started 1-4 failed to make the playoffs. Not good odds.
Kudos To The Redskins For A Speedy Recovery
I was worried about the Washington Redskins. They had a week off to forget about the debacle against the Giants, where they blew a 14 point 2nd half lead. I thought the bye week came at the wrong time.
The Skins defence forgot. They showed up to play, sacking Jon Kitna five times and holding the Lions offense to a meagre 76 yards on 34 dropbacks (29 passes plus the 5 sacks) If you are calculating, that is 2.23 yards a dropback against a Lions offense that, in the first 4 games averaged 7.7, 6.0, 7.1 and 7.2 yards a pass play.
And what about Jason Campbell? How would Campbell recover after being responsible for the brutal clock management against the Giants that prevented the Skins from getting an additional play at the goal line to force overtime?
23 of 29 for 248 yards, 2 touchdowns, no interceptions, no sacks.
The Skins are 3-1 with a brutal schedule upcoming: at 4-1 Green Bay, home to the surging 3-2 Cardinals and at 5-0 New England. They needed this win.
Time Management Supervisor Needed for Mike Nolan And The 49ers?
I criticized San Francisco Head Coach Mike Nolan for not gambling on 4th down with less than 6 minutes to play last week against Seattle down three scores. I hate picking on him again but I cannot resist nitpicking.
Situation: Ravens lead 9-7, they have the ball at their 48 yard line with 2:15 left in the 4th quarter.
It is 3rd down and 4.
The 49ers need the ball back. They only have one timeout remaining, plus the 2 minute warning.
If the 49ers stop the Ravens on this 3rd down play, they can let the clock run to the 2 minute warning, receive the punt and start their final drive with the timeout still in their pocket. Of course if the Ravens decide to pass and they throw incomplete, the Niners can start their drive before the 2 minute warning, in effect getting one extra play.
However, if the Ravens were to get a first down on this 3rd down play, the Niners would have to spend their timeout on defence. Does it matter if they spend the timeout before or after the 2 minute warning?
Steve McNair found Derrick Mason for an 18 yard gain and a first down, in bounds, clock moving with 2:10 left.
Let’s do the calculations for Niners Head Coach Mike Nolan.
If Coach Nolan calls his final timeout immediately, with 2:10 left, the Ravens would have to snap the ball before the 2 minute warning. Assuming the Ravens don’t get a first down on this play, the clock would stop on 2nd down with 2:00 remaining.
If Ravens coach Brian Billick does the expected, which is run the ball twice, the following would occur,:
(1)On 2nd down, Ravens snap the ball at 2:00,
(2)the play would be whistled dead at 1:55, play clock reset at 40
(3)On 3rd down Ravens snap the ball at 1:16 (1:55 less 39 seconds)
(4)If no first down occurs, and that admittedly is a big if, the Ravens would call a timeout to either bring out their field goal or punting unit once the play clock reads 1 second.
Recap: Mike Nolan calls timeout before the 2 minute warning, the Ravens snap the ball at 2:00 and 1:16, play clock resets at 1:11, runs 39 seconds before the Ravens call their timeout. Got that?
If all this happens, the Ravens would either punt or kick a long field goal with 28 seconds to play. They would most likely punt because a missed long field would give the Niners excellent field position and it is only a two point game.
Best case scenario: the Niners get the ball back with about 20 seconds, maybe 22 seconds left in the game deep in their own territory.
I realize that there isn’t much time but stranger things have happened.
But the only way for the Niners to get even 22 seconds on their final drive is to call a timeout BEFORE the 2 minute warning.
So what did Coach Nolan do? He let the clock run down to 2 minutes without taking his final timeout.
In effect, if he calls his timeout with 1:55 remaining and it is 2nd down he has lost 5 precious seconds for a potential final drive.
We’ve already established that the best case scenario for a final drive is perhaps 22 seconds. By not calling his timeout until AFTER the 2 minute warning, Coach Nolan took 5 seconds off the clock for his team.
5 seconds might not seem like much, but in football, 5 seconds equals one additional play. That is a lot of time.
What happened in the end? The Ravens ran the ball at 2:00 when it was first down, and the Niners hemmed and hawed until calling their final timeout with 1:47 left. They let 8 precious seconds tick away (the play was whistled dead at 1:55) for no reason.
Then on the next play, Willis McGahee ran for a first down, in effect, making the last few paragraphs meaningless. Unless, of course, the Niners have a similar situation come up in a future game and make the same mistakes.
Hopefully this is the last time I criticize Coach Nolan.
And that’s it for me Jimmy G. I hope you enjoyed reading my analysis. I’ll be back later this week with my predictions for Week 6 in the NFL.
Until then, goodbye.
Friday, October 5, 2007
Predictions For Week 5 In The NFL
Predictions for Week 5 in the NFL
This is Jimmy G once again from the Team 990.
Prognosticating football games may be a fool’s errand, however, here I go. Even the best experts are correct between 55% to 60% of the time, so the question is: how accurate will I be compared to the experts at picking games straight up?
Upset special Number 1
Browns will beat the Patriots: Belichick’s teams are not known for looking ahead but they just might on Sunday, what with Dallas being on the schedule next week. This is the first time Romeo Crennel is coaching against his mentor. For the Browns and Derek Anderson to prove they are for real, this game is it.
Upset Special Number 2
Bucs beat the Colts: Jeff Garcia has been sacked just once, hasn’t been picked off yet, the running game has piled up 182 and 189 yards the last 2 weeks. Even with Cadillac gone for the year, I expect Coach Jon Gruden to play ball control, running the ball early and often: Jeff Garcia is the perfect QB for this sort of strategy.
San Diego (1-3) at Denver (2-2): Broncos will win
The Chargers have to run the ball more: their play selection in the 2nd half against the Chiefs was horrendously unbalanced. Is it panic time for the Chargers? Not at all. A loss to Denver would put them only two games back of the division lead with 11 games to play. Thankfully for San Diego, no one in the West is running away so Coach Turner will have enough time to plug the leaking ship. That is, if Norv is still the commander early next week.
Arizona (2-2) at St Louis (0-4): Cards win
If the Cardinals cannot win this game to get to 3-2, then they should have kept Dennis Green as their coach. To get to 9-7, teams like the Cardinals have to take all the winnable games on their schedule. This is one of them. The Cardinals will win.
Miami (0-4) at Houston (2-2): Dolphins win
If the Texans cannot win this game to get to 3-2, then this will be a wasted season. Teams like the Texans cannot afford to lose to an 0-4 team like Miami. Miami will win this game. Houston will not make the playoffs.
Chicago (1-3) at Green Bay (4-0): Packers win
Is it panic time for the Bears? No. If the Bears lose to the Packers, will it be panic time then? Not really. The odds would be against the Monsters of the Midway but do not forget the following: the Giants made the playoffs at 8-8 last year, and the Rams and Vikings made the playoffs at 8-8 in 2004. Bottom line: in the NFC noone is ever out of the playoff race.
Other predictions:
Steelers beat Seattle: No Super Bowl revenge for Mike Holmgren
Falcons beat Tennessee: Why is Joey H playing so well lately?
Giants beat the Jets: Eric Mangini does not have the luxury of an easy schedule in 2007. Nor can the Jets sneak up on teams
Redskins beat the Lions: The Skins had a week off to forget about the atrocious clock management fiasco that cost them a potential overtime against the Giants
Cowboys beat Bills: Do you think that perhaps Wade Phillips wants to get revenge on the team that fired him in 2000, even though he made the playoffs twice in three seasons and had a 29-19 record?
Jaguars beat my Chiefs: The Jaguars have rushed for 72, 113 and 157 yards in their first three games so the running game is improving by the week. A bye will only help.
Panthers beat the Saints: Can’t they both lose? The Panthers called a players only meeting even though they are a respectable 2-2. The Saints had a bye after three straight losses. Look for the Panthers to stuff Reggie Bush in his first start as an every down back, 25 carry a game back.
Ravens beat the 49ers: I cannot imagine Trent Dilfer doing anything against the Ravens defense, although I thought the same thing about Derek Anderson and the Browns last week. The Ravens win an ugly battle of attrition.
Those are my picks for the week. Any thoughts you want to share with Team990.com readers?
Please send them to jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com
I'll return with a new in-depth statistical opinionated look just after midnight Sunday after all the games are complete.
Enjoy the action on Sunday. The Team 990 will be broadcasting the Jets-Giants at 1:00, the Bucs-Colts at 4:00 and the Packers-Bears at 8:30 so don't forget to tune in. The Team 990 will also broadcast the Monday night tilt between the Bills and the Cowboys.
Immediately following the Packers-Bears game you can listen to Matthew Ross and his NFL recap show on the Team 990.
Immediately following the Bills-Cowboys game you can listen to Simon Tsalikis and George Caperis from the Ministry of Sports as they give you their analysis of the 14 game NFL slate.
That's it for me.
This is Jimmy G once again from the Team 990.
Prognosticating football games may be a fool’s errand, however, here I go. Even the best experts are correct between 55% to 60% of the time, so the question is: how accurate will I be compared to the experts at picking games straight up?
Upset special Number 1
Browns will beat the Patriots: Belichick’s teams are not known for looking ahead but they just might on Sunday, what with Dallas being on the schedule next week. This is the first time Romeo Crennel is coaching against his mentor. For the Browns and Derek Anderson to prove they are for real, this game is it.
Upset Special Number 2
Bucs beat the Colts: Jeff Garcia has been sacked just once, hasn’t been picked off yet, the running game has piled up 182 and 189 yards the last 2 weeks. Even with Cadillac gone for the year, I expect Coach Jon Gruden to play ball control, running the ball early and often: Jeff Garcia is the perfect QB for this sort of strategy.
San Diego (1-3) at Denver (2-2): Broncos will win
The Chargers have to run the ball more: their play selection in the 2nd half against the Chiefs was horrendously unbalanced. Is it panic time for the Chargers? Not at all. A loss to Denver would put them only two games back of the division lead with 11 games to play. Thankfully for San Diego, no one in the West is running away so Coach Turner will have enough time to plug the leaking ship. That is, if Norv is still the commander early next week.
Arizona (2-2) at St Louis (0-4): Cards win
If the Cardinals cannot win this game to get to 3-2, then they should have kept Dennis Green as their coach. To get to 9-7, teams like the Cardinals have to take all the winnable games on their schedule. This is one of them. The Cardinals will win.
Miami (0-4) at Houston (2-2): Dolphins win
If the Texans cannot win this game to get to 3-2, then this will be a wasted season. Teams like the Texans cannot afford to lose to an 0-4 team like Miami. Miami will win this game. Houston will not make the playoffs.
Chicago (1-3) at Green Bay (4-0): Packers win
Is it panic time for the Bears? No. If the Bears lose to the Packers, will it be panic time then? Not really. The odds would be against the Monsters of the Midway but do not forget the following: the Giants made the playoffs at 8-8 last year, and the Rams and Vikings made the playoffs at 8-8 in 2004. Bottom line: in the NFC noone is ever out of the playoff race.
Other predictions:
Steelers beat Seattle: No Super Bowl revenge for Mike Holmgren
Falcons beat Tennessee: Why is Joey H playing so well lately?
Giants beat the Jets: Eric Mangini does not have the luxury of an easy schedule in 2007. Nor can the Jets sneak up on teams
Redskins beat the Lions: The Skins had a week off to forget about the atrocious clock management fiasco that cost them a potential overtime against the Giants
Cowboys beat Bills: Do you think that perhaps Wade Phillips wants to get revenge on the team that fired him in 2000, even though he made the playoffs twice in three seasons and had a 29-19 record?
Jaguars beat my Chiefs: The Jaguars have rushed for 72, 113 and 157 yards in their first three games so the running game is improving by the week. A bye will only help.
Panthers beat the Saints: Can’t they both lose? The Panthers called a players only meeting even though they are a respectable 2-2. The Saints had a bye after three straight losses. Look for the Panthers to stuff Reggie Bush in his first start as an every down back, 25 carry a game back.
Ravens beat the 49ers: I cannot imagine Trent Dilfer doing anything against the Ravens defense, although I thought the same thing about Derek Anderson and the Browns last week. The Ravens win an ugly battle of attrition.
Those are my picks for the week. Any thoughts you want to share with Team990.com readers?
Please send them to jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com
I'll return with a new in-depth statistical opinionated look just after midnight Sunday after all the games are complete.
Enjoy the action on Sunday. The Team 990 will be broadcasting the Jets-Giants at 1:00, the Bucs-Colts at 4:00 and the Packers-Bears at 8:30 so don't forget to tune in. The Team 990 will also broadcast the Monday night tilt between the Bills and the Cowboys.
Immediately following the Packers-Bears game you can listen to Matthew Ross and his NFL recap show on the Team 990.
Immediately following the Bills-Cowboys game you can listen to Simon Tsalikis and George Caperis from the Ministry of Sports as they give you their analysis of the 14 game NFL slate.
That's it for me.
Monday, October 1, 2007
A Recap of Week 4 in the National Football League with Jimmy G
Welcome to the Week 4 NFL recap with Jimmy G of the Team 990. Any comments, requests and information you want to pass along to readers of the Team 990 web site and of this blog can be sent to me jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com
In this edition, I’ll discuss the following:
-4th Quarter of the Giants-Eagles game: Hurry Up Offense?
-Theories of clock management
-The forgotten Damon Huard
-The Bears play selection against Detroit
-Plays from scrimmage: a relevant stat?
-The new boss in Arizona
-Can an 0-4 team make the playoffs?
-Can a 1-3 team make the playoffs?
-Should the 49ers have punted in the 4th quarter against Seattle?
Next week’s edition will feature an in depth analysis of San Diego Head Coach Norv Turner titled “Norv Turner: Should He Be An NFL Head Coach?” The title tells you everything you need to know about what might be inside. Any comments on this issue can be sent to jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com Your comments will be included.
BUT FIRST...A RECAP OF WEEK 4
Alert to Chicago Bears fans....Alert to Chicago Bears fans
Let us add to last weeks statistical note about yards per pass attempt and turnover differential
not going the Bears’ way.
The Bears have lost the turnover battle and have thrown for fewer yards per pass play than their opponents in four straight games.
How often does this happen? And more importantly, how successful are these teams?
Nine teams have lost both these important categories in four straight games since the 2000 season.
How did they do? If you are a Bears fan you might want to look away.
The list in chronological order::
Cleveland Weeks 13-16 2000 3-13
Cincinnati Weeks 9-12 2000 4-12
Minnesota Weeks 1-4 2002 6-10
NY Giants Weeks 11-14 2003 4-12
Oakland Weeks 3-6 2004 5-11
San Francisco Weeks 11-14 2005 4-12
Houston Weeks 1-4 2005 2-14
Tampa Bay Weeks 11-14 2006 4-12
Minnesota Weeks 7-10 2006 5-11
As you can see, the best record was Minnesota’s 6-10 in 2002.
Hopefully, the Bears can overcome their 1-3 start and not suffer the same fate.
TimeOuts and Andy Reid
Last week, I excorciated Redskin coach Joe Gibbs for poor clock management. This week it is time to critique another NFC East coach.
Situation: down 16-0 to the Giants, the Eagles face a 4th and 19 from the Giants 35 yard line. Clock at 13:00 remaining in the 4th quarter and moving. Eagles have two timeouts remaining.
Option 1: Punt the football and hope to stick the Giants inside the 10. Force a three and out and use the field position gain to shorten the field on your next possession.
Option 2: Attempt a 53 yard field goal. Benefit is that it cuts the lead to 13. Drawback is that if you miss the Giants get the ball at their 43. Then they get the short field.
Option 3: Go for it. The least likely option. 19 yards inside your opponents 35 is a risky proposition. The drawback is the same as that in Option 2. Fail and the Giants get great field position.
The one thing that Andy Reid cannot afford to do is call a timeout because his Eagles are trailing by two scores.
If the Eagles are to get a final opportunity to win or tie the game they will have to (a)put points on the board soon and (b)get a defensive stop in the last few minutes of the game.
Former Raider coach John Madden has taught a simple clock management theory for many years: timeouts should be used exclusively in the last three minutes of a game to (a)stop the clock so you can set up important plays when your team is driving for the final time or (b)stop the clock on defense in order to give your offense one final possession.
Timeouts should be wrapped around the two minute warning for maximum clock savings.
What did the Eagles do? The Eagles were poorly prepared: the punting unit and field goal were on the field at the same time. The clock ran down to 12:56 before the Eagles had to call timeout.
That left them with just one. Ironically, the Eagles used Option 2, the option I would have avoided, and it worked. Field goal was good from 53. Eagles down 16-3.
However, losing a timeout was costly. Despite the field goal, the Eagles were still down two possessions. On plays like this, proper communication from the sideline is vital, and in this instance, Andy Reid failed.
The Eagles Final Drive versus the Giants: Is This A Hurry Up Offense
The Eagles got the ball back with 6:36 remaining on their 23 yard line, down 16-3, one timeout remaining. Needing two scores, the Eagles came out in their hurry up offense.
Was it a hurry up offense? Normally, when teams are in a 2 minute drill, they snap the ball 20-22 seconds after the previous play ends, assuming the play is in bounds.
After a completion to Reggie Brown for a 6 yard gain on the first play, it took Donovan McNabb 31 seconds of game clock to receive the snap.
After Correll Buckhalter ran for 5 yards, it took another 28 seconds of game clock to receive the next snap.
With 5:23 remaning, McNabb hit Buckhalter again for 14 yards to his 43 yard line. This time it took 24 seconds for McNabb to take the snap on 3rd and 1 and sneak for a first down.
In theory, if everyone is surrounding the line of scrimmage, it means that you can snap the ball very quickly, since noone has to run a great distance to get in position for the next play.
Despite this, it took another 27 seconds to snap the ball.
That play resulted in an 11 yard completion to Matt Schobel, followed by a lull of 28 seconds before the next snap.
Mercifully, a 12 yard completion to Buckhalter ended out of bounds with the clock stopped at 4:04 of the 4th quarter. Ball at the Giant 32 yard line.
Seven plays in 2:32. Can this be called a hurry up offense?
It is a perfect drive if you are down one score, its four down territory and you know you won't be getting the ball back. In that case a team can try to take as much time off the clock as possible to limit the amount of time remaining for their opponents final possession But the Eagles are down 2 scores. Taking time off the clock is simply not an option.
Basic Clock Management Math When Down Two Possessions
No coach wants to rely on an onside kick. It is a low percentage play. This is how to avoid the onside kick.
If you have two timeouts, you have to score with about 2:10 remaining, then kickoff, force a three and out and that’ll leave you with enough time for a two minute drill. The two minute warning acts as a third timeout.
If you have one timeout remaining, you have to score before the 2:50 mark because you can never be sure how many seconds can be run off the clock on the kickoff.
If the clock reads 2:45 when your opponent takes possession, they can run five seconds off the game clock before the whistle blows to start the next play. If the whistle blows before 2:40, you don’t call your final timeout because your opponent has to snap the ball before the two minute warning (the play clock is 40 seconds) Thus you can save your single timeout until after the two minute warning, and if you force a three and out, you’ll have enough time for a two minute drill.
What happens if the clock reads less than 2:45 when you score to make it a one possession game?
Option 1: kickoff and hope your opponent throws an incomplete pass that stops the clock. If they don’t, you can stop the clock twice, meaning that if your opponent simply runs the ball up the middle three times, they will have to punt the football with 1:15 remaining, and based on how the punt return works, you’ll have just over a minute to go down the field.
Option 2: the onside kick. As mentioned before, a very low percentage play.
The Eagles need to score quickly to avoid Option 2: the onside kick.
Back to the Eagles and the Giants.
The Eagles Final Drive versus the Giants: What Is With The Play Calling?
Okay, quick recap. Eagles down 16-3, clock moving, just under 4:00 remaining.
The Eagles ran the ball on the next play, gaining 16 yards to the Giant 16 yard line, in bounds. A very good gain, though the clock is moving. However, everyone is close to the line of scrimmage so the next snap should conceivably be taken within 16 seconds.
Yet Donovan McNabb is letting precious seconds tick away. The next snap barely beats the play clock.
Important question #1: How does a quarterback let 40 seconds slip away from the game clock?
You can give the Eagles and McNabb the benefit of the doubt as long as the next play is a good one. That would justify letting precious time go off the clock.
On the next play, Buckhalter runs off left tackle for a 4 yard loss. Whistle resets the play clock at 3:14 remaining.
Important question #2: Is that the best play the Eagles can come up with when there is just over 3 minutes to play?
Important question #3: Did the Eagles have to use 40 seconds off the game clock to snap the ball on a basic running play?
Okay, damage done, clock moving, just under 3:00 remaining. Now the clock is stopped at 2:47. Giant injured. Clock restarts, incomplete pass and the clock is mercifully stopped with 2:37 remaining.
The only options remaining for the Eagles now are to score before the two minute warning, and get the onside kick. The Eagles can still kickoff but with only one timeout, the Giants would have to throw an incomplete pass to stop the clock for them.
And that is why the timeout wasted with 12:56 remaining was so important. Teams have a limited amount of clock stoppages at their disposal. Using them wisely is a luxury. They cannot be waste due to poor communication.
Mercifully the game ends two plays later when the Giants sack Donovan McNabb and recover his fumble.
Results of final drive: 12 plays in 4:17. This does not qualify as a hurry up offense. Donovan McNabb taking his sweet time getting his teammates to the line of scrimmage brought about memories of the 4th quarter of the Eagles Patriots Super Bowl.
McNabb taking so much time off the clock to set up the offense falls under the purview of Head Coach Andy Reid and Offensive Coordinator Marty Mohrinweg. It is their responsibility to signal plays quickly from the sideline, and failing that, to ensure that their quarterback is aware of the clock implications.
If Eagles Offensive Coordinator Marty Mohrinweg wants another head coaching job in the NFL he will have to get Donovan McNabb performing much better. It is one thing to pound the Lions secondary for 56 points. It is quite another to game plan against a tough division opponent.
Meet The New Quarterback...Same As The Old Quarterback?
Okay so Lovie Smith benches Rex Grossman for inefficient play. Reasonable decision. Rex has thrown for 5.61 yards per pass attempt and 6 interceptions on 89 throws through 3 games in 2007. More importantly for Lovie, however, the Bears are 1-2 record. Something, or someone, had to take the fall for the poor start.
But is Brian Griese really the answer? . Griese, for all his talents, has proven, after ten years in the league, to be nothing more than a paper quarterback. Nice completion percentage, decent yards per pass attempt, better than average TD to INT ratio. Yet Mike Shanahan, Jon Gruden and Nick Saban couldn’t wait to get rid of him.
Griese’s numbers against the Lions: 34 of 52 for 5.5 yards an attempt, 2 touchdowns but more importantly, 3 interceptions, including a 4th quarter pick that went 64 yards the other way for a Lions go ahead TD.
Maybe We Should Rethink Damon Huard As A Starting Quarterback
Damon Huard keeps getting accused of being a caretaker quarterback, a career backup, a game manager who is there to make safe plays and nothing else.
Huard has started only 18 games in his career. His record is 12-6 (66.7%)
More importantly however, in those 12 victories, Huard has led his teams to 4th quarter come from behind victories five times and 4th quarter game winning drives twice.
Huard’s 4th Quarter Comebacks
Week 5 1999 vs New England
Week 12 2000 vs Indianapolis
Week 4 2006 vs Cardinals
Week 7 2006 vs Seattle
Week 3 2007 vs Minnesota
Huard’s 4th Quarter Game Winning drives
Week 6 2006 vs San Diego
Week 4 2007 vs San Diego
Not bad for a career backup who went six seasons between starts.
Note 1: a come from behind victory is when a team is trailing at any point in the fourth quarter but ends up winning the game, either in regulation or overtime
Note 2: a game winning drive is when neither team is leading in the 4th quarter or overtime until the winning points are scored.
Offensive Snaps Are Not A Key Statistic When It Comes ToWinning Games
The Bears ran 80 plays to the Lions 55, a plus 25 difference in favour of Chicago. However, the Bears lost the game.
The Ravens ran 73 plays to the Browns 48, a plus 25 in favour of Baltimore. However, Baltimore lost the game.
Despite the huge differential in offensive snaps, the outcome of the Ravens-Browns and Bears-Lions isn’t that uncommon.
These are the 6 largest differentials thus far in 2007.
Baltimore +25 vs Cleveland Week 4 (Baltimore LOST)
Jacksonville +25 vs Denver Week 3 (Jacksonville won)
Chicago +25 vs Detroit Week 4 (Chicago LOST)
New Orleans +24 vs Tampa Bay Week 2 (New Orleans LOST)
Denver +23 vs Buffalo Week 1 (Denver won)
St Louis +21 vs San Francisco Week 2 (St Louis LOST)
4 of the 6 teams with the highest snap differential ended up losing.
In 2006, 5 of the 6 teams with highest snap differential also lost.
Jacksonville +48 vs Tennessee Week 14 (Jacksonville LOST)
New Orleans +41 vs NY Giants Week 15 (New Orleans won)
Philadelphia +34 vs Tennessee Week 10 (Philadelphia LOST)
Houston +33 vs Tennessee Week 7 (Houston LOST)
Minnesota +32 vs Chicago Week 12 (Minnesota LOST)
Green Bay +31 vs Buffalo Week 8 (Green Bay LOST)
Thus far, in 2007, teams with more offensive snaps are 34-23 (59.6%).
In 2006, teams with more offensive snaps in a game were 154-96 (61.6%)
In 2005, teams with more offensive snaps in a game were 139-104 (57.2%)
As you can see, having your quarterback under center the majority of the time does not give you a
better chance of winning.
On To Lovie Smith and The Bears...Please Explain The Play Selection
The Bears defense gave up four touchdowns in the 4th quarter against the Lions. That cannot happen again if the Bears are to get back in contention. However, the loss to the Lions cannot be blamed entirely on the defensive unit.
As mentioned, the Bears ran 80 plays against the Lions. 58 of those plays were passes. 52 attempts and 6 dropbacks that ended in a sack. 22 rushing attempts. Not an uncommon ratio when a team is trailing and has to throw the ball to (a)move down the field quickly and (b)preserve the clock since a running play takes more time off said clock.
However, the Bears were not passing the ball trying to catch up to the Lions.
After 3 quarters, the Bears were leading 13-3. They ran 57 plays up to that point, 36 of them passes.
The results of their 57 plays:
21 rushes yielding 68 yards, an average of 3.24 yards a carry.
36 pass plays yielding 154 yards and 2 interceptions. An average of 4.4 yards per pass play.
Despite the fact that their pass plays yielded just one yard more on average than their running plays, not to mention the fact that they led to two turnovers, the Bears insisted on throwing the ball often for three quarters.
All this despite having a glorified backup quarterback in Brian Griese whose job description was expected to be that of a Trent Dilfer - Brad Johnson game manager who excecutes with safe dropbacks and lots of running plays.
As strange as Lovie Smith’s play calling may have seemed, at least the Bears were leading 13-3 heading into the final quarter. There was plenty of time for Lovie Smith to make the corrections, and bring home the victory.
By the time the Bears took possession with 14:48 remaining in the 4th quarter, the Lions had made the score 13-10.
Three point lead. A one possession game. Full quarter to play.
The expectation: The Bears would run the ball, mixed in with some safe short passes, move the chains and eat the clock. At worst, they can play a field position game and hope their defense could make some plays.
The play selection on the Bears first drive of the fourth quarter: pass, pass, run, pass intercepted for a Lion touchdown for a Lions lead.
4 plays, just one rushing attempt.
Note the rushing attempt by the Bears Cedric Benson. It was the last Bear rushing attempt in the game.
Final tally for the Bears in the 4th quarter:
22 pass plays (18 attempts plus 4 sacks) for 80 yards
1 run for 1 yard
Their pass plays in the fourth quarter yielded an average of just 3.6 yards. Brian Griese was 14 of 18 (excellent) for 108 yards (decent) one touchdown and one interception that was returned for a touchdown going 64 yards. The four sacks went for a loss of 28 yards.
If you want to get technical about it, the Bears passing game yielded 16 positive yards on 22 drop backs in the 4th quarter 108 passing yards minus 28 sack yards minus 64 yards for the interception return) That is less than one yard per pass play.
Here is hoping that Lovie Smith learns from this defeat. In a close game with Brian Griese as your quarterback, you limit his exposure in the pocket by using the running game to full advantage. Even if it means punting the football more often than you would like.
For a better understanding of how this theory works, study Chiefs coach Herman Edwards and his game plans for Damon Huard.
The Bears Finally Blew A Fourth Quarter Lead
Heading into the 2007 season began, here were the coaches with the best winning streaks when it came to preserving 4th quarter leads.
Bill Belichick 24 straight games (last blown lead: vs Miami Week 15 2004)
Lovie Smith 23 straight games (last blown lead: vs Cleveland Week 4 2005)
Brian Billick 17 straight games (last blown lead: vs Pittsburgh Week 7 2005)
Jack Del Rio 16 straight games (last blown lead: vs StLouis Week 7 2005)
Well, Baltimore blew a 4th quarter lead on opening night to the Bengals.
Now the Bears have blown a lead against Detroit.
So Bill Belichick is still the tops at 27 straight wins when leading in the 4th quarter (3-0 and playing the Bengals tonight) And Jack Del Rio is next with 18 (2-1 this season)
After 23 straight 4th quarter conversions, Lovie Smith deserves a pass for his horrendous pass-run ratio management against the Lions.
Don’t Go 0-4, Or Else...Wait ...No It’s Too Late
Obviously. Going 0-4 to start the season can’t possibly help a team’s playoff chances.
And it doesn’t. Believe the numbers, they don’t lie.
Since the NFL expanded to 30 teams in 1995, teams have started a season 0-4 a total of 45 times.
Not ONCE did a team make the playoffs. 45 consecutive failures.
How many came close?
Two.
The Buffalo Bills finished 9-7 in 2004. They held destiny in their own hands, but failed to defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers at home, against a 15-1 Pittsburgh team resting their entire starting unit.
Tennessee was 8-7 playing New England in week 17 last year. The Titans needed to win and have four games go their way in order to have a chance at the post season. They lost.
How did these 0-4 teams ultimately do?
2 finished at 1-15
6 finished at 2-14
7 finished at 3-13
10 finished at 4-12
7 finished at 5-11
5 finished at 6-10
5 finished at 7-9
2 finished at 8-8
1 finished at 9-7
But wait...the Saints made the playoff last year. If they start the season 0-4, don’t they belong in a special category.
They would but they haven’t yet because they had a bye this week.
I’ll go into details next week IF the Saints lose at home to Carolina.
What about teams starting 1-3? Can they turn their season around?
Mike Nolan: How Do You Expect To Get Three Possessions In The Last 3 Minutes?
Situation: down 23-3 to the Seahawks with 5:04 remaning, clock stopped, the 49ers face a 4th and ten from their 31 yard line. The 49ers have two timeouts left.
What should the 49ers do? They are down three possessions with only five minutes to go.
Option 1: If they punt and the Seahawks let the play clock run the full 40 seconds and run the ball three times , the 49ers will get the ball back with just under 2:45 left still down three possessions. They’d have two timeouts and the two minute warning to stop the clock. If they score quickly, they might be able to onside kick, failing that, use their timeouts, force a three and out, get another score and then recover an onside kick. Assuming that the first onside kick fails. This is the best case scenario.
Option 1 seems complicated. Let’s look at Option 2.
Option 2: Go for it. Get the first down, put points on the board quickly, if the onside kick fails, you’d still be able to stop the clock, score again and then recover an onside kick in the last minute.
The drawback: if you fail on 4th down at your own 31, the game is over.
Basic math: you can either start trying to score three times with 5 minutes left when you have the ball or maybe get the ball back with just under 3 minutes left and then score three times.
Both options require an onside kick recovery at some point, possibly multiple onside kick recoveries.
The only reasonable option is to go for it. If you punt the football, it isn’t reasonable to expect three possessions in the last three minutes.
What did 49ers coach Mike Nolan decide? Coach Nolan punted the football.
Teams can either lose and keep the score respectable or lose kicking and screaming. The 49ers chose the former.
Meet The New Boss. Same As The Old Boss?
In the offseason, the Arizona Cardinals fired head coach Dennis Green and replaced him with Steelers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt.
Has anything changed?
Well...... no. Things never change in the desert.
The Cardinals are 1-3 to start the season, as they always have been.
Since 1992, the Arizona Cardinals have started EVERY season 1-3, except in 1998 and 2000. Surprisingly, as bad as they have been for the longest time, they have never started 0-4 since 1992.
That’s 14 times in 16 years that the Cards have started slowly out of the gate. This might explain why they have only one playoff appearance in the last 24 years.
Let’s hope that Ken Whisenhunt can overcome the slow start and not join the less than illustrious club featuring Joe Bugel, Buddy Ryan, Vince Tobin, Dave McGinnis and the already mentioned Dennis Green.
The club of coaches who attempted to turn around the moribound franchise and ultimately failed and failed miserably.
Don’t Go 1-3, Or Else...Wait...It’s Not too Late ....Yet
The basic numbers aren’t pleasant to observe if you are one of the 1-3 teams: Jets, Chargers, Bills, the Bears, the Falcons or the Vikings. And don’t forget the Eagles. Their game just ended.
In 2006, seven teams started 1-3. None made the playoffs.
In 2005, nine teams started 1-3. The Chicago Bears were the exception, qualifying as NFC North Champions at 11-5.
In 2004, eight teams started 1-3, with Green Bay coming from behind to finish 10-6.
In 2003, eight teams started 1-3. None made the playoffs.
If you are counting, that is 32 teams starting 1-3 in the last 4 seasons, not counting 2007, with only 2 teams ending up in the playoffs.
Wait A Minute...The Cardinals defeated the Steelers.......Not Like The Old Boss...Yet
Forget about the previous note. The Cardinals are 2-2 after four games for the first time since 2000. Since 1992, the Cardinals have started 2-2 three times, in 1998, 2000 and 2007. The remaining 14 times they have started 1-3. Never 0-4. Never 3-1. Never 4-0.
Or Maybe You Can Still Make The Playoffs Starting 1-3
Here is an abberation for you:
In 2002, seven teams started off 1-3.
Four of those teams made the playoffs: Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Tennessee and New York Jets.
Okay, so maybe it’s not impossible.
There you have it. This was Jimmy G from the Team 990. Thank you for reading and I hope you come back again in a few days.
Welcome to the Week 4 NFL recap with Jimmy G of the Team 990. Any comments, requests and information you want to pass along to readers of the Team 990 web site and of this blog can be sent to me jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com
In this edition, I’ll discuss the following:
-4th Quarter of the Giants-Eagles game: Hurry Up Offense?
-Theories of clock management
-The forgotten Damon Huard
-The Bears play selection against Detroit
-Plays from scrimmage: a relevant stat?
-The new boss in Arizona
-Can an 0-4 team make the playoffs?
-Can a 1-3 team make the playoffs?
-Should the 49ers have punted in the 4th quarter against Seattle?
Next week’s edition will feature an in depth analysis of San Diego Head Coach Norv Turner titled “Norv Turner: Should He Be An NFL Head Coach?” The title tells you everything you need to know about what might be inside. Any comments on this issue can be sent to jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com Your comments will be included.
BUT FIRST...A RECAP OF WEEK 4
Alert to Chicago Bears fans....Alert to Chicago Bears fans
Let us add to last weeks statistical note about yards per pass attempt and turnover differential
not going the Bears’ way.
The Bears have lost the turnover battle and have thrown for fewer yards per pass play than their opponents in four straight games.
How often does this happen? And more importantly, how successful are these teams?
Nine teams have lost both these important categories in four straight games since the 2000 season.
How did they do? If you are a Bears fan you might want to look away.
The list in chronological order::
Cleveland Weeks 13-16 2000 3-13
Cincinnati Weeks 9-12 2000 4-12
Minnesota Weeks 1-4 2002 6-10
NY Giants Weeks 11-14 2003 4-12
Oakland Weeks 3-6 2004 5-11
San Francisco Weeks 11-14 2005 4-12
Houston Weeks 1-4 2005 2-14
Tampa Bay Weeks 11-14 2006 4-12
Minnesota Weeks 7-10 2006 5-11
As you can see, the best record was Minnesota’s 6-10 in 2002.
Hopefully, the Bears can overcome their 1-3 start and not suffer the same fate.
TimeOuts and Andy Reid
Last week, I excorciated Redskin coach Joe Gibbs for poor clock management. This week it is time to critique another NFC East coach.
Situation: down 16-0 to the Giants, the Eagles face a 4th and 19 from the Giants 35 yard line. Clock at 13:00 remaining in the 4th quarter and moving. Eagles have two timeouts remaining.
Option 1: Punt the football and hope to stick the Giants inside the 10. Force a three and out and use the field position gain to shorten the field on your next possession.
Option 2: Attempt a 53 yard field goal. Benefit is that it cuts the lead to 13. Drawback is that if you miss the Giants get the ball at their 43. Then they get the short field.
Option 3: Go for it. The least likely option. 19 yards inside your opponents 35 is a risky proposition. The drawback is the same as that in Option 2. Fail and the Giants get great field position.
The one thing that Andy Reid cannot afford to do is call a timeout because his Eagles are trailing by two scores.
If the Eagles are to get a final opportunity to win or tie the game they will have to (a)put points on the board soon and (b)get a defensive stop in the last few minutes of the game.
Former Raider coach John Madden has taught a simple clock management theory for many years: timeouts should be used exclusively in the last three minutes of a game to (a)stop the clock so you can set up important plays when your team is driving for the final time or (b)stop the clock on defense in order to give your offense one final possession.
Timeouts should be wrapped around the two minute warning for maximum clock savings.
What did the Eagles do? The Eagles were poorly prepared: the punting unit and field goal were on the field at the same time. The clock ran down to 12:56 before the Eagles had to call timeout.
That left them with just one. Ironically, the Eagles used Option 2, the option I would have avoided, and it worked. Field goal was good from 53. Eagles down 16-3.
However, losing a timeout was costly. Despite the field goal, the Eagles were still down two possessions. On plays like this, proper communication from the sideline is vital, and in this instance, Andy Reid failed.
The Eagles Final Drive versus the Giants: Is This A Hurry Up Offense
The Eagles got the ball back with 6:36 remaining on their 23 yard line, down 16-3, one timeout remaining. Needing two scores, the Eagles came out in their hurry up offense.
Was it a hurry up offense? Normally, when teams are in a 2 minute drill, they snap the ball 20-22 seconds after the previous play ends, assuming the play is in bounds.
After a completion to Reggie Brown for a 6 yard gain on the first play, it took Donovan McNabb 31 seconds of game clock to receive the snap.
After Correll Buckhalter ran for 5 yards, it took another 28 seconds of game clock to receive the next snap.
With 5:23 remaning, McNabb hit Buckhalter again for 14 yards to his 43 yard line. This time it took 24 seconds for McNabb to take the snap on 3rd and 1 and sneak for a first down.
In theory, if everyone is surrounding the line of scrimmage, it means that you can snap the ball very quickly, since noone has to run a great distance to get in position for the next play.
Despite this, it took another 27 seconds to snap the ball.
That play resulted in an 11 yard completion to Matt Schobel, followed by a lull of 28 seconds before the next snap.
Mercifully, a 12 yard completion to Buckhalter ended out of bounds with the clock stopped at 4:04 of the 4th quarter. Ball at the Giant 32 yard line.
Seven plays in 2:32. Can this be called a hurry up offense?
It is a perfect drive if you are down one score, its four down territory and you know you won't be getting the ball back. In that case a team can try to take as much time off the clock as possible to limit the amount of time remaining for their opponents final possession But the Eagles are down 2 scores. Taking time off the clock is simply not an option.
Basic Clock Management Math When Down Two Possessions
No coach wants to rely on an onside kick. It is a low percentage play. This is how to avoid the onside kick.
If you have two timeouts, you have to score with about 2:10 remaining, then kickoff, force a three and out and that’ll leave you with enough time for a two minute drill. The two minute warning acts as a third timeout.
If you have one timeout remaining, you have to score before the 2:50 mark because you can never be sure how many seconds can be run off the clock on the kickoff.
If the clock reads 2:45 when your opponent takes possession, they can run five seconds off the game clock before the whistle blows to start the next play. If the whistle blows before 2:40, you don’t call your final timeout because your opponent has to snap the ball before the two minute warning (the play clock is 40 seconds) Thus you can save your single timeout until after the two minute warning, and if you force a three and out, you’ll have enough time for a two minute drill.
What happens if the clock reads less than 2:45 when you score to make it a one possession game?
Option 1: kickoff and hope your opponent throws an incomplete pass that stops the clock. If they don’t, you can stop the clock twice, meaning that if your opponent simply runs the ball up the middle three times, they will have to punt the football with 1:15 remaining, and based on how the punt return works, you’ll have just over a minute to go down the field.
Option 2: the onside kick. As mentioned before, a very low percentage play.
The Eagles need to score quickly to avoid Option 2: the onside kick.
Back to the Eagles and the Giants.
The Eagles Final Drive versus the Giants: What Is With The Play Calling?
Okay, quick recap. Eagles down 16-3, clock moving, just under 4:00 remaining.
The Eagles ran the ball on the next play, gaining 16 yards to the Giant 16 yard line, in bounds. A very good gain, though the clock is moving. However, everyone is close to the line of scrimmage so the next snap should conceivably be taken within 16 seconds.
Yet Donovan McNabb is letting precious seconds tick away. The next snap barely beats the play clock.
Important question #1: How does a quarterback let 40 seconds slip away from the game clock?
You can give the Eagles and McNabb the benefit of the doubt as long as the next play is a good one. That would justify letting precious time go off the clock.
On the next play, Buckhalter runs off left tackle for a 4 yard loss. Whistle resets the play clock at 3:14 remaining.
Important question #2: Is that the best play the Eagles can come up with when there is just over 3 minutes to play?
Important question #3: Did the Eagles have to use 40 seconds off the game clock to snap the ball on a basic running play?
Okay, damage done, clock moving, just under 3:00 remaining. Now the clock is stopped at 2:47. Giant injured. Clock restarts, incomplete pass and the clock is mercifully stopped with 2:37 remaining.
The only options remaining for the Eagles now are to score before the two minute warning, and get the onside kick. The Eagles can still kickoff but with only one timeout, the Giants would have to throw an incomplete pass to stop the clock for them.
And that is why the timeout wasted with 12:56 remaining was so important. Teams have a limited amount of clock stoppages at their disposal. Using them wisely is a luxury. They cannot be waste due to poor communication.
Mercifully the game ends two plays later when the Giants sack Donovan McNabb and recover his fumble.
Results of final drive: 12 plays in 4:17. This does not qualify as a hurry up offense. Donovan McNabb taking his sweet time getting his teammates to the line of scrimmage brought about memories of the 4th quarter of the Eagles Patriots Super Bowl.
McNabb taking so much time off the clock to set up the offense falls under the purview of Head Coach Andy Reid and Offensive Coordinator Marty Mohrinweg. It is their responsibility to signal plays quickly from the sideline, and failing that, to ensure that their quarterback is aware of the clock implications.
If Eagles Offensive Coordinator Marty Mohrinweg wants another head coaching job in the NFL he will have to get Donovan McNabb performing much better. It is one thing to pound the Lions secondary for 56 points. It is quite another to game plan against a tough division opponent.
Meet The New Quarterback...Same As The Old Quarterback?
Okay so Lovie Smith benches Rex Grossman for inefficient play. Reasonable decision. Rex has thrown for 5.61 yards per pass attempt and 6 interceptions on 89 throws through 3 games in 2007. More importantly for Lovie, however, the Bears are 1-2 record. Something, or someone, had to take the fall for the poor start.
But is Brian Griese really the answer? . Griese, for all his talents, has proven, after ten years in the league, to be nothing more than a paper quarterback. Nice completion percentage, decent yards per pass attempt, better than average TD to INT ratio. Yet Mike Shanahan, Jon Gruden and Nick Saban couldn’t wait to get rid of him.
Griese’s numbers against the Lions: 34 of 52 for 5.5 yards an attempt, 2 touchdowns but more importantly, 3 interceptions, including a 4th quarter pick that went 64 yards the other way for a Lions go ahead TD.
Maybe We Should Rethink Damon Huard As A Starting Quarterback
Damon Huard keeps getting accused of being a caretaker quarterback, a career backup, a game manager who is there to make safe plays and nothing else.
Huard has started only 18 games in his career. His record is 12-6 (66.7%)
More importantly however, in those 12 victories, Huard has led his teams to 4th quarter come from behind victories five times and 4th quarter game winning drives twice.
Huard’s 4th Quarter Comebacks
Week 5 1999 vs New England
Week 12 2000 vs Indianapolis
Week 4 2006 vs Cardinals
Week 7 2006 vs Seattle
Week 3 2007 vs Minnesota
Huard’s 4th Quarter Game Winning drives
Week 6 2006 vs San Diego
Week 4 2007 vs San Diego
Not bad for a career backup who went six seasons between starts.
Note 1: a come from behind victory is when a team is trailing at any point in the fourth quarter but ends up winning the game, either in regulation or overtime
Note 2: a game winning drive is when neither team is leading in the 4th quarter or overtime until the winning points are scored.
Offensive Snaps Are Not A Key Statistic When It Comes ToWinning Games
The Bears ran 80 plays to the Lions 55, a plus 25 difference in favour of Chicago. However, the Bears lost the game.
The Ravens ran 73 plays to the Browns 48, a plus 25 in favour of Baltimore. However, Baltimore lost the game.
Despite the huge differential in offensive snaps, the outcome of the Ravens-Browns and Bears-Lions isn’t that uncommon.
These are the 6 largest differentials thus far in 2007.
Baltimore +25 vs Cleveland Week 4 (Baltimore LOST)
Jacksonville +25 vs Denver Week 3 (Jacksonville won)
Chicago +25 vs Detroit Week 4 (Chicago LOST)
New Orleans +24 vs Tampa Bay Week 2 (New Orleans LOST)
Denver +23 vs Buffalo Week 1 (Denver won)
St Louis +21 vs San Francisco Week 2 (St Louis LOST)
4 of the 6 teams with the highest snap differential ended up losing.
In 2006, 5 of the 6 teams with highest snap differential also lost.
Jacksonville +48 vs Tennessee Week 14 (Jacksonville LOST)
New Orleans +41 vs NY Giants Week 15 (New Orleans won)
Philadelphia +34 vs Tennessee Week 10 (Philadelphia LOST)
Houston +33 vs Tennessee Week 7 (Houston LOST)
Minnesota +32 vs Chicago Week 12 (Minnesota LOST)
Green Bay +31 vs Buffalo Week 8 (Green Bay LOST)
Thus far, in 2007, teams with more offensive snaps are 34-23 (59.6%).
In 2006, teams with more offensive snaps in a game were 154-96 (61.6%)
In 2005, teams with more offensive snaps in a game were 139-104 (57.2%)
As you can see, having your quarterback under center the majority of the time does not give you a
better chance of winning.
On To Lovie Smith and The Bears...Please Explain The Play Selection
The Bears defense gave up four touchdowns in the 4th quarter against the Lions. That cannot happen again if the Bears are to get back in contention. However, the loss to the Lions cannot be blamed entirely on the defensive unit.
As mentioned, the Bears ran 80 plays against the Lions. 58 of those plays were passes. 52 attempts and 6 dropbacks that ended in a sack. 22 rushing attempts. Not an uncommon ratio when a team is trailing and has to throw the ball to (a)move down the field quickly and (b)preserve the clock since a running play takes more time off said clock.
However, the Bears were not passing the ball trying to catch up to the Lions.
After 3 quarters, the Bears were leading 13-3. They ran 57 plays up to that point, 36 of them passes.
The results of their 57 plays:
21 rushes yielding 68 yards, an average of 3.24 yards a carry.
36 pass plays yielding 154 yards and 2 interceptions. An average of 4.4 yards per pass play.
Despite the fact that their pass plays yielded just one yard more on average than their running plays, not to mention the fact that they led to two turnovers, the Bears insisted on throwing the ball often for three quarters.
All this despite having a glorified backup quarterback in Brian Griese whose job description was expected to be that of a Trent Dilfer - Brad Johnson game manager who excecutes with safe dropbacks and lots of running plays.
As strange as Lovie Smith’s play calling may have seemed, at least the Bears were leading 13-3 heading into the final quarter. There was plenty of time for Lovie Smith to make the corrections, and bring home the victory.
By the time the Bears took possession with 14:48 remaining in the 4th quarter, the Lions had made the score 13-10.
Three point lead. A one possession game. Full quarter to play.
The expectation: The Bears would run the ball, mixed in with some safe short passes, move the chains and eat the clock. At worst, they can play a field position game and hope their defense could make some plays.
The play selection on the Bears first drive of the fourth quarter: pass, pass, run, pass intercepted for a Lion touchdown for a Lions lead.
4 plays, just one rushing attempt.
Note the rushing attempt by the Bears Cedric Benson. It was the last Bear rushing attempt in the game.
Final tally for the Bears in the 4th quarter:
22 pass plays (18 attempts plus 4 sacks) for 80 yards
1 run for 1 yard
Their pass plays in the fourth quarter yielded an average of just 3.6 yards. Brian Griese was 14 of 18 (excellent) for 108 yards (decent) one touchdown and one interception that was returned for a touchdown going 64 yards. The four sacks went for a loss of 28 yards.
If you want to get technical about it, the Bears passing game yielded 16 positive yards on 22 drop backs in the 4th quarter 108 passing yards minus 28 sack yards minus 64 yards for the interception return) That is less than one yard per pass play.
Here is hoping that Lovie Smith learns from this defeat. In a close game with Brian Griese as your quarterback, you limit his exposure in the pocket by using the running game to full advantage. Even if it means punting the football more often than you would like.
For a better understanding of how this theory works, study Chiefs coach Herman Edwards and his game plans for Damon Huard.
The Bears Finally Blew A Fourth Quarter Lead
Heading into the 2007 season began, here were the coaches with the best winning streaks when it came to preserving 4th quarter leads.
Bill Belichick 24 straight games (last blown lead: vs Miami Week 15 2004)
Lovie Smith 23 straight games (last blown lead: vs Cleveland Week 4 2005)
Brian Billick 17 straight games (last blown lead: vs Pittsburgh Week 7 2005)
Jack Del Rio 16 straight games (last blown lead: vs StLouis Week 7 2005)
Well, Baltimore blew a 4th quarter lead on opening night to the Bengals.
Now the Bears have blown a lead against Detroit.
So Bill Belichick is still the tops at 27 straight wins when leading in the 4th quarter (3-0 and playing the Bengals tonight) And Jack Del Rio is next with 18 (2-1 this season)
After 23 straight 4th quarter conversions, Lovie Smith deserves a pass for his horrendous pass-run ratio management against the Lions.
Don’t Go 0-4, Or Else...Wait ...No It’s Too Late
Obviously. Going 0-4 to start the season can’t possibly help a team’s playoff chances.
And it doesn’t. Believe the numbers, they don’t lie.
Since the NFL expanded to 30 teams in 1995, teams have started a season 0-4 a total of 45 times.
Not ONCE did a team make the playoffs. 45 consecutive failures.
How many came close?
Two.
The Buffalo Bills finished 9-7 in 2004. They held destiny in their own hands, but failed to defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers at home, against a 15-1 Pittsburgh team resting their entire starting unit.
Tennessee was 8-7 playing New England in week 17 last year. The Titans needed to win and have four games go their way in order to have a chance at the post season. They lost.
How did these 0-4 teams ultimately do?
2 finished at 1-15
6 finished at 2-14
7 finished at 3-13
10 finished at 4-12
7 finished at 5-11
5 finished at 6-10
5 finished at 7-9
2 finished at 8-8
1 finished at 9-7
But wait...the Saints made the playoff last year. If they start the season 0-4, don’t they belong in a special category.
They would but they haven’t yet because they had a bye this week.
I’ll go into details next week IF the Saints lose at home to Carolina.
What about teams starting 1-3? Can they turn their season around?
Mike Nolan: How Do You Expect To Get Three Possessions In The Last 3 Minutes?
Situation: down 23-3 to the Seahawks with 5:04 remaning, clock stopped, the 49ers face a 4th and ten from their 31 yard line. The 49ers have two timeouts left.
What should the 49ers do? They are down three possessions with only five minutes to go.
Option 1: If they punt and the Seahawks let the play clock run the full 40 seconds and run the ball three times , the 49ers will get the ball back with just under 2:45 left still down three possessions. They’d have two timeouts and the two minute warning to stop the clock. If they score quickly, they might be able to onside kick, failing that, use their timeouts, force a three and out, get another score and then recover an onside kick. Assuming that the first onside kick fails. This is the best case scenario.
Option 1 seems complicated. Let’s look at Option 2.
Option 2: Go for it. Get the first down, put points on the board quickly, if the onside kick fails, you’d still be able to stop the clock, score again and then recover an onside kick in the last minute.
The drawback: if you fail on 4th down at your own 31, the game is over.
Basic math: you can either start trying to score three times with 5 minutes left when you have the ball or maybe get the ball back with just under 3 minutes left and then score three times.
Both options require an onside kick recovery at some point, possibly multiple onside kick recoveries.
The only reasonable option is to go for it. If you punt the football, it isn’t reasonable to expect three possessions in the last three minutes.
What did 49ers coach Mike Nolan decide? Coach Nolan punted the football.
Teams can either lose and keep the score respectable or lose kicking and screaming. The 49ers chose the former.
Meet The New Boss. Same As The Old Boss?
In the offseason, the Arizona Cardinals fired head coach Dennis Green and replaced him with Steelers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt.
Has anything changed?
Well...... no. Things never change in the desert.
The Cardinals are 1-3 to start the season, as they always have been.
Since 1992, the Arizona Cardinals have started EVERY season 1-3, except in 1998 and 2000. Surprisingly, as bad as they have been for the longest time, they have never started 0-4 since 1992.
That’s 14 times in 16 years that the Cards have started slowly out of the gate. This might explain why they have only one playoff appearance in the last 24 years.
Let’s hope that Ken Whisenhunt can overcome the slow start and not join the less than illustrious club featuring Joe Bugel, Buddy Ryan, Vince Tobin, Dave McGinnis and the already mentioned Dennis Green.
The club of coaches who attempted to turn around the moribound franchise and ultimately failed and failed miserably.
Don’t Go 1-3, Or Else...Wait...It’s Not too Late ....Yet
The basic numbers aren’t pleasant to observe if you are one of the 1-3 teams: Jets, Chargers, Bills, the Bears, the Falcons or the Vikings. And don’t forget the Eagles. Their game just ended.
In 2006, seven teams started 1-3. None made the playoffs.
In 2005, nine teams started 1-3. The Chicago Bears were the exception, qualifying as NFC North Champions at 11-5.
In 2004, eight teams started 1-3, with Green Bay coming from behind to finish 10-6.
In 2003, eight teams started 1-3. None made the playoffs.
If you are counting, that is 32 teams starting 1-3 in the last 4 seasons, not counting 2007, with only 2 teams ending up in the playoffs.
Wait A Minute...The Cardinals defeated the Steelers.......Not Like The Old Boss...Yet
Forget about the previous note. The Cardinals are 2-2 after four games for the first time since 2000. Since 1992, the Cardinals have started 2-2 three times, in 1998, 2000 and 2007. The remaining 14 times they have started 1-3. Never 0-4. Never 3-1. Never 4-0.
Or Maybe You Can Still Make The Playoffs Starting 1-3
Here is an abberation for you:
In 2002, seven teams started off 1-3.
Four of those teams made the playoffs: Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Tennessee and New York Jets.
Okay, so maybe it’s not impossible.
There you have it. This was Jimmy G from the Team 990. Thank you for reading and I hope you come back again in a few days.
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