Week 16 in the NFL Plus Predictions

Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the team990.com

Today I’ll combine my thoughts on Week 16 and predictions for Week 17

Some Quick Hits from Week 16
(1)It took 14 games for the Cleveland Browns to gain control of their playoff destiny. It then took 2 passes to give it all away.

Down 6-0 with less than two minutes to play in the first half, the Browns got the ball at their own 43 yard line. Next play, Derek Anderson threw an interception that was returned to the Brown 5 yard line. Bengals scored on the next play. Browns trailed 13-0.

After the kickoff, Anderson took the ball again, this time from his own 20. Next play, another interception, and two plays later, Bengals score another touchdown. Browns trailed 19-0 at the half. Final score: Browns lose 19-14.

Just like that, all that hard work goes to waste. Now the Browns have to hope that Tennessee loses next week.

(2)Why was Brett Favre still on the field in the 4th quarter against the Bears? This made no sense. With 12 minutes left, Urlacher intercepted a pass and went in for a touchdown to make it 35-7. Yet Favre still played on, risking injury in what had become a sure defeat.

Why did Favre stay in the lineup? To pad his individual stats? I hope not.

(3)Tom Coughlin is Mr. Resilient.

Always on the verge of being fired, Coughlin always finds a way to upset his critics. How? By qualifying for the playoffs….yet again.

When the Giants were 0-2 and trailing the Skins 14-0 at the half, I thought that Coughlin would be fired the next day.

Instead the Giants came from behind to beat the Skins, started a 6 game winning streak and came into the Bills game on Sunday at 9-5 and in control of their playoff fate.

However, a playoff spot was not guaranteed. Why? Because a loss to the Bills would most likely mean that the Giants would have to beat the Patriots next week or else miss out.

So what happened? The Giants fell behind 14-0 at the end of the first quarter.

But as always, Tom Coughlin found a way to get ahead. Final score: Giants win 38-21.

Now Coughlin has made the playoffs three straight seasons with New York, to go with the four times he made it with the Jaguars.

(4)Who told Miami quarterback Cleo Lemon to spike the ball with 1:11 in the first half?

Let’s set it up: completion to the Patriot 9 yard line with 1:25 to play, clock running, no timeouts for Miami, who trailed the Pats 28-0.

Basic clock management indicates that you have plenty of time to set up the next sequence of plays. You can even run the ball up the middle if you really want to, taking more time off the clock.

The clock was not relevant: there was no need to stop it.

Well, Cleo Lemon spiked the ball, stopping the clock and losing a down in the process. That lost down cost Miami because they ended up going for it on 4th and goal from the 5.

Did this play make a difference in the overall scheme of things? No. But if Lemon is the quarterback of the future, he better learn Football 101.

Now we’ll look at coaches on the hot seat. Who’ll keep his job and who won’t?

In the order that I think they’ll be fired, here goes:

Cam Cameron, Miami Dolphins

Are you listening to what new GM Bill Parcells is saying about Cam Cameron?

Can you hear the Big Tuna’s words?

Neither can I. If Parcells wanted to keep Cameron as coach, he would have said something by now. He has avoided any comment whatsoever.

You have to feel bad for Cam Cameron for the sequence of events that occurred in January. These events have put him in the position he’s in today.

Here’s what happened: in ’06 Cameron was the offensive coordinator for the 14-2 Chargers. After the Chargers lost to the Patriots in the playoffs, Marty Shottenheimer was supposed to be fired by GM AJ Smith and Cameron was to be named the new head coach.

However, before AJ Smith could make the announcement, Chargers ownership decided to keep Marty for one more year, against GM’s wishes.

So Cameron jumped to Miami instead. A few weeks later, Chargers ownership changed their mind and fired Shottenheimer. By this time of course, Cameron was out of the equation.

From the 14-2 penthouse to the 1-14 basement in the course of one calendar year. Annus horribulus for Cam Cameron.

Chances that Cam Cameron will be fired: 100 %

John Fox, Carolina Panthers

When the 2006 season began, every major publication predicted that the Panthers would make the Super Bowl.

Instead the Panthers went 8-8 in ’06, and are 6-9 so far in ‘07

Bill Cowher, a North Carolina resident, has indicated that he will not be coaching in 2008 under any circumstances.

The only way John Fox keeps his job is if Panther ownership decides to wait until the next off-season in the hopes that Cowher changes his mind. It wouldn’t make sense to fire Fox, hire someone else for one year, then hire Cowher.

Chances that John Fox gets fired: 75 %

Scott Linehan, St Louis Rams

Rams management is giving Linehan the dreaded public vote of confidence.

Do not pay attention to what Rams management is saying publicly.

A coach is who is 3-12 in a very weak division can never be guaranteed anything. Tory Holt’s outburst on national TV in the Steelers game was the telling point. When your quiet superstar behaves like that, you are done.

Chances that Scott Linehan will be fired: 85%

Brian Billick, Baltimore Ravens

Let’s face facts: Brian Billick has two things going for him: his Super Bowl ring and his 13-3 record in 2006.

What’s not going in Billick’s favor is the fact that his team has given up on him. Let us count the games. (a) Falling behind 30-0 in the second quarter to the Colts at home on national TV, followed by (b)a loss to the winless Dolphins, followed by (c)a listless 27-6 defeat at the hands of the Seahawks.

If Billick keeps his job, it is because Ravens management believes that the 13-3 record from 2006 is more indicative of his coaching talent than the 4-11 monstrosity that we will call 2007.

Chances that Brian Billick will be fired: 40%

Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals

When the Bengals were 3-7, I predicted that Marvin Lewis would be fired at the end of the season. What’s changed since then? The Bengals won 3 of their next 5, including games against the 9-6 Titans and 9-6 Browns. What does this mean? It means that the team hasn’t given up on Lewis, which is one of the barometers that owners use when judging whether to bring back a coach.

Chances that Marvin Lewis will be fired: 30 %

Mike Nolan, San Francisco 49ers

When the 49ers were 3-10 I predicted that Mike Nolan would be fired and replaced by his assistant head coach Mike Singletary.

What has changed in the last 2 weeks to make me change my mind?

(a)the 49ers have won two straight, versus the 6-9 Bengals and 9-6 Bucs
(b)the development of third string QB Shaun Hill, who has exceeded all expectations

All of a sudden the 49ers are 5-10, which is infinitely better than 3-12.

If the 49ers beat the Cleveland Browns, it will be incredibly difficult for the 49ers ownership to fire a coach on a three game winning streak.

Chances that Mike Nolan will be fired: 20%

Rod Marinelli, Detroit Lions

I weighed in on Marinelli’s job status last week. Nothing has changed.

Lions President and GM Matt Millen cannot fire Rod Marinelli without putting his own job in jeopardy.

Therefore the only way Rod Marinelli gets fired is if the Ford family decides to eliminate both he and Matt Millen as part of a package deal.

Chances that Rod Marinelli gets fired: 15%

Let’s segue into my predictions for Week 17. I was 11-5 last week. For the season: 100-59, for a winning percentage of .634. Okay, I suppose.

Here we go for the final weekend

Patriots over the Giants: Tom Coughlin will rest all his starters. For the Giants coach, this is his bye week

49ers over the Browns: the Browns are playing a meaningless game, and they’ll treat it as such. They can only make the playoffs with a Titans loss. For many players on the 49ers, such as quarterback Shaun Hill, they are playing for their future

Redskins over Cowboys: for the Cowboys, a win is getting out of DC in one piece. Another game which will be determined based on one team not caring. The Skins need to win in order to make the playoffs

Titans over Colts: the exact same thing as the Cowboys Skins game. The Colts just want to get out of this game in one piece, injury-free. The Titans must win to make the playoffs

Seahawks over Falcons: meaningless game for Seattle, they are locked in at #3 seed. The only item of interest in this game is whether interim coach Emmitt Thomas can get a decent performance from his 3-12 Falcons

Bears over Saints: who could have predicted that the two teams from last year’s NFC Championship game would both be missing the playoffs. I cannot see how the Saints can go into cold weather and beat the Bears.

Lions over Packers: Packers will rest everyone, Lions will want this badly to get to 8-8

Jaguars over Texans: Texans threw in the towel against the Colts. Why’d they do that? They had a chance to get to 9-7 (even though they’d have missed the playoffs)

Bengals over Dolphins: Marvin Lewis wants to get to 7-9. the Dolphins don’t care about their coach (taking their cue from new GM Bill Parcells)

Eagles over Bills: Donovan McNabb is playing great and will continue to do so. He wants to impress potential employers in order to be traded in the offseason

Chargers over Raiders: If the Chargers win, they get the # 3 seed, which means two things. (a)they avoid the Jaguars in the wild card round AND (b)they avoid the Patriots in the divisional round.

Vikings over Broncos: Broncos have given up

In other games: Panthers over Bucs, Cardinals over Rams, Steelers over Ravens, Jets over Chiefs

That’s it for me. I'll be back next week with my preview of the Wild Card round as well as some thoughts on the final regular season weekend.

Predictions For Week 16 In The NFL

Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy on the team990.com

Due to the holidays my predictions edition will be abbreviated.

In Week 15 I was the very definition of mediocre: 9-7. Overall record: 100-59 (62.0%)

I already predicted that the Steelers would beat the Rams in my previous post, so here are my picks for Week 16.

Cowboys over the Panthers: the Panthers can still make the playoffs. Here's how:
(a)win their last two games
(b)Washington beats Minnesota, then loses to Dallas
(c)New Orleans loses one o their final two games
(d)Minnesota loses to Denver

If my math is correct, the Panthers need 6 games to their way over the next 13 days. I think that 5 of the 6 games will fall Carolina's way. The only game that won't: this one against Dallas.

Chargers over Broncos: San Diego will continue their great run since that 1-3 start. Too bad that Norv Turner will find a way to mess it up come playoff time.

Bills over Giants: Injured tight end Kevin Everett will be in attendance. If that does not motivate the Bills nothing will. Bills coach Dick Jauron was 7-9 last season: he wants to get to 9-7 badly, you can bet.

Packers over Bears: If the Cowboys hadn’t lost to the Eagles in the Jessica Simpson game, I would have picked the Bears. But now the Pack have a decent chance of getting the number 1 seed which they didn’t have a few days ago.

Browns over Bengals: the Bengals have quit on Marvin Lewis.

Lions over Chiefs: in a game noone wants to win, Detroit will be more motivated since they have a chance of getting to .500

Colts over Texans: if the Texans were still alive in the playoff race, I'd take them. But they're not, so I won't.

Saints over the Eagles: Saints need this game, Eagles are already eliminated

Jaguars over the Raiders: The Jags beat the Steelers at Heinz Field in horrible winter conditions. How can they not beat the Raiders?

Cardinals over the Falcons: The Falcons are not going to give any effort for an interim head coach in a lost season. Would you?

Bucs over 49ers: Tampa Bay can still get the #3 seed over Seattle.

Patriots over Dolphins: Need any more motivation other than a 16-0 season? Tom Brady needs 5 touchdown passes to break Peyton’s record.

Seahawks over the Ravens: Seattle can still finish with the # 3 seed so, just like the Bucs, they’ll be motivated.

Titans over the Jets: Tennessee still has playoff hopes.

Redskins over the Vikings: Third consecutive prime time game for the Redskins. Very simple mathematics: Redskins win, they can make the playoffs by beating Dallas in Week 17 as long as either the Giants lose twice or the Saints lose once. If the Skins lose, they are done.

That’s it for me. Enjoy the games and visit Touchdowns and Kicks again on Tuesday afternoon when I break down all the action.

Week 15 In The NFL

Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G.

I’ll be changing things up for this edition. It’ll be questions and answers. Lots of questions, lots of answers.

Without further ado, let the show begin.

Q: Last week I asked readers a question: which quarterback has had the most 4th quarter game winning drives since week 7 of the 2006 season?

A: I’ll print readers’ emails in my predictions post this Friday. I was surprised at the answers.

Q: Which two teams will be the wild cards in the NFC?

A: Washington and Minnesota

Q: Will Joe Gibbs’ legacy be damaged ? After all, he is only 28-34 since returning for the 2004 season.

A: If the Skins can finish 9-7 and make the playoffs, Gibbs’ legacy will be safer than it should be. Why? Because two playoff berths in four seasons is a reasonable return on an investment.

Also keep in mind that both playoff spots (assuming the Skins make the playoffs this year) would have required big time turnarounds late in the season. 2005: Skins were 5-6, won their last 5 to squeak in. 2007: Skins were 5-7, won their last 4 to squeak in. That takes coaching.

Q: If the Redskins and Giants both finish 9-7 who gets the tiebreaker?

A: The Redskins based on common games (8-6 vs 7-7)

Q: If the Redskins, Giants, Saints and Vikings all finish 9-7, which two teams make the playoffs?

A: The Saints and the Redskins

Q: Trailing by 3, the Ravens had the ball on the 1 yard line, 4th and goal with seconds left against the Dolphins? Brian Billick decided to kick the field goal and go into overtime. Should Billick have rolled the dice?

A: If Kyle Boller was under center, yes. But Troy Smith is a rookie QB. I don’t think I’d want to trust a rookie in that situation.

Q: Are the Jaguars legitimate Super Bowl contenders?

A: You betcha. The Jaguars are built to win in January conditions.

They can run the ball
They don’t turn the ball over
They can get to the quarterback
They can stop the run

Q: Any updates on Jags Coach Jack Del Rio, the Rambling Gambling Man?

A: Week after week, the answer is getting to be an automatic yes.

Readers of my blog are aware of my weekly feature describing the Jaguars propensity for taking chances on 4th down. The result over the last 5 weeks has always been the same: Jags gamble, they succeed and a few plays later they score a touchdown. Sunday’s game against the Steelers was no exception.

Situation: Jags trail 7-3, less than three minutes remaining in the first half. Ball on the Steeler 24 yard line. 4th and 1.

Field goal is the usual decision here but it is snowy and it is Heinz Field so a gamble is obvious. Result: Jones Drew gets 2 yards and a first down. 3 plays later, Garrard to Wilford for a 12 yard touchdown. Jags lead at the half 10-7.

Next Situation: Jags next possession is at the start of the second half, still leading 10-7.

4th and 1 on the Steeler 46 yard line. 11:48 left in the 3rd quarter. Logic dictates that the Jags should punt the football and play a game of field position. No way. Jones Drew up the middle for 6 yards.

Later on, same drive. 4th and 1 at the Steeler 31, 9:58 remaining 3rd quarter. Too far for a field goal and a punt might end up in the end zone, yielding a net of 11 yards. So a gamble is the right call. Result: Garrard quarterback sneak for a first down. Nine pays later, Garrard to Reggie Williams for a touchdown and 16-7 lead. (Missed Extra Point)

Q: What statistic bothers you about the Oakland Raiders?

A: Blown 4th quarter leads. Rookie Head Coach Lane Kiffin has been at the helm of FIVE, count them, FIVE, blown 4th quarter leads this season.

Q: Is FIVE blown 4th quarter leads a record for a Rookie Head Coach since the NFL went to a 16 game schedule in 1978?

A: No. The record is SIX, set in 1994 by Norv Turner of the Washington Redskins

Kiffin is tied with three other rookie head coaches for 2nd place, with FIVE.

The list:
Lane Kiffin, Oakland 2007
John Fox, Carolina 2002
Ray Handley, NYGiants 1991
June Jones, Atlanta, 1994

Q: What is the overall record for blown 4th quarter leads, regardless of whether the coach was in his first year? (*Since 1978)

A: Mike Riley, San Diego Chargers in 2000. The Chargers finished 1-15 and blew a 4th quarter lead SEVEN times.

Next on the list, with SIX blown 4th quarter leads in a single season:

Norv Turner, Washington 1994 (already mentioned)
Joe Bugel, Oakland 1997
George Siefert, Carolina 2001
Dan Henning, San Diego 1989
Jerry Burns, Minnesota 1990

Q: Anything else you want to add about 4th quarter leads?

A: Sure. Under Brian Billick, the Ravens had blown only EIGHT 4th quarter leads since 1999.

In 2007, the Ravens have blown FOUR.

Q: Who has had the toughest schedule after 15 weeks?

A: Philadelphia. Their 14 opponents have an adjusted record of 106-76 (.582)

Q: Who has had the easiest schedule after 15 weeks?

A: San Francisco. Their 14 opponents have an adjusted record of 77-107 (.423)

Q: Can this be explained more easily?

A: Of course.

The Eagles have faced opponents that, on average, would finish with 9.31 wins over the course of a 16 game season.
The Niners, on the other hand, have faced opponents that, on average, would finish with 6.77 wins over the course of a 16 game season.

The 6-8 Eagles, despite this huge disadvantage, have a much better record than the 49ers.

Q: What does this mean for Mike Nolan’s job security?

A: Nolan, unless he wins his last 2 games to finish 6-10, will be fired.

Nolan was 4-12 in 2005, and 7-9 last year.

Nolan’s career record : 15-31-0. That about sums it up.

I go into more detail regarding Nolan later in this posting, so continue reading.

Q: What about Rod Marinelli? Will he return as the Detroit Lions head coach?

A: When the Lions were 6-2, Marinelli’s job was considered safe. Now the Lions are 6-8 and I am no longer sure.

Let’s look at the positives and negatives regarding Rod Marinelli’s situation.

Negatives: 6 straight losses after a 6-2 start. 3-13 in his rookie season.
Positives: The Lions have gone from 3-13 in Marinelli’s rookie season to 6-8 this year.
6 wins is better than 3.

There is one factor that is in Marinelli’s favor: Matt Millen.

Matt Millen took over as Lions General Manager shortly after the 2000 season, which saw Detroit barely miss the playoffs at 9-7.

The first thing Millen did was hire an unknown as Head Coach: Marty Mohrinweg. Mohrinweg went 2-14 in 2001 and 3-13 in 2002. Not surprisingly, Mohrinweg was fired after the 2002 season.

Next up was Millen’s good friend Steve Mariucci. Mooch did much better, relatively speaking. 5-11 in 2003, 6-10 in 2004 and finally, after a 4-7 start in 2005, he resigned.

And of course, now we have Marinelli.

Matt Millen, despite the Lions 30-80 record since 2001, still has a job.

He has hired three coaches, and two failed. The third coach has done a mediocre job.

How can Matt Millen fire Rod Marinelli, then walk up to Lions ownership and ask that he be allowed to hire a 4th coach in 7 years?

My gut feeling: If Marinelli gets fired it’ll be as part of a package with Matt Millen. Ergo, Millen and Marinelli both go, or they both stay.

Q: The Falcons lost to Tampa Bay 37-3. How bad were the Falcons?

A: Incredibly Bad.

Falcons time of possession was 17:01. 2nd worst this season. The only team worse: The Cardinals, 16:53 in a 17-10 loss in week 8 against, strangely enough, Tampa Bay.

Falcons had 36 plays from scrimmage. No team has had that few snaps this season.

Falcons had 5 first downs. Only the Ravens, in a 38-7 loss to Pittsburgh in week 8, had fewer. The Ravens had only 4 first downs.

Q: Who’ll be the quarterback for the Bears in 2008?

A: Certainly not Brian Griese. If Griese was returning in ‘08, Lovie Smith would have put him in the lineup against the Vikings last night. Kyle Orton was awful. Let’s be honest, Orton cost the Bears the ballgame. Yet, despite Orton’s poor performance, Griese never got a second look from Lovie.

How upset should the Bears be this morning? Incredibly upset.

The Bears had a PLUS THREE turnover ratio. Here are the won loss records of teams with a plus three turnover ration in recent years.

2007: 21-5
2006: 32-1
2005: 18-3
2004: 38-4
2003: 34-3

Add it up. 143-16 equals 89.94%. The average team had a 90% chance of winning the game based on turnovers alone. The Bears lost. At 5-9, the Bears are an average team.


Eagles 10 Cowboys 6 : Blondes, Tony Romo, Christmas and the Eagles

What is it about Tony Romo and his blonde girlfriends?

Week 16 2006. Christmas Day. Dallas hosting the Eagles. Big game.

Who is Tony Romo's special guest for the game? Carrie Underwood.

Result: Eagles win 23-7. Romo's stats: 14 of 29 for 142 yards and 2 interceptions.

Fast forward to yesterday. 9 days till Christmas. Dallas hosting the Eagles. Big game. (aren't they all?)

Who is Tony Romo's special guest for the game? Jessica Simpson.

Result: Eagles win 10-6. Romo's stats: 13 of 36 for 214 yards and 3 interceptions.

Hmmm. anyone else notice a trend?

Peyton Manning: A Special Player, Part 1

I’ll remember many things about Peyton Manning’s performance against the Raiders yesterday.

(1)Peyton’s overall stats: 22 of 39 for 276 and a TD
(2)Peyton concluding his game winning drive by throwing a 20 yard touchdown pass to Anthony Gonzalez with 4:49 remaining.

Peyton’s numbers on the winning drive: 7 of 7 for 68 yards. Excellent.

However, what I’ll remember most about Peyton yesterday is the final play of the game.

On this play Peyton proved that when it comes to brains, he has no equal.

Situation: Peyton kneels down on 3rd and 10, clock reset with 46 seconds remaining. Raiders have no timeouts remaining. Therefore the Colts have to run a play before the game clock hits 0:07.

What were Peyton’s options?

Option 1: run the clock to 0:07, call timeout, send in the punting unit. Problem: if the punt gets blocked, it might get returned for a touchdown.
Option 2: run the clock to 0:07, call timeout, run another play that will last seven seconds so the game will end before the Raiders can touch the ball. Problem: if the clock does not expire, the Raiders would get one final chance between the Colt 35 to 40 yard line.

So what did Peyton do? He created Option 3.

Peyton let the clock hit 0:08, took the snap, dropped back in the pocket, and threw the ball HIGH in the air down the right sideline.

What was so great about what Peyton Manning did? Let us count the ways.

(1)He eliminated the need to punt the football
(2)He eliminated the need to stop the clock

How? Because the clock kept running when Peyton received the snap and also while the ball was in the air.

Result: the clock expired which prevented the Raiders from having a Hail Mary opportunity.

Brian Westbrook: A Special Player, Part 2

Brian Westbrook is a special and unselfish player.

Need some evidence? Look no further than Westbrook’s decision before the 2 minute warning.

Situation: Eagles lead 10-6 with 2:19 remaining. 1st down at the Cowboy 25 yard line.
Cowboys have NO timeouts remaining.

It was pretty obvious what the Cowboys were going to do. Dallas was going to allow the Eagles to score an easy touchdown. The Cowboys had no other choice.

The reason? Mathematics.

If the Eagles run the ball down the middle on their next three plays, they’d be able to run the clock until there are approximately 25 seconds remaining.

Why 25 seconds remaining? Because the Cowboys are out of timeouts, they cannot stop the clock. The only option the Cowboys have is to fall behind 17-6 by allowing a touchdown, then hoping for a touchdown drive of their own, followed by an onside kick recovery. Yes, it sounds far fetched but stranger things have happened.

But Brian Westbrook ruined Dallas’ best laid plans. He took the handoff and raced untouched to the end zone. HOWEVER, instead of scoring a touchdown, Westbrook stopped at the 1 yard line.

By being unselfish, Westbrook guaranteed an Eagles victory.

How? Because the clock would run to the two minute warning, at which point all the Eagles would have to do is kneel down three times to end the game. No Dallas drive, no onside kick, no need for the Eagles defense to get on the field.

Westbrook did something not seen very often: he refused to add to his personal statistics to help his team.

San Francisco 20 Cincinnati 13 : What was Mike Nolan thinking?

Here's the situation: 49ers lead 20-13 with 6:28 remaining in the 4th quarter. Clock stopped. 49ers ball on the Bengal 24 yard line. It is 4th and 2.

What should 49ers coach Mike Nolan do?

Option 1: Kick a field goal to make it 23-13, a two possession game. This would force the Bengals into four down territory on their next drive, meaning that the next defensive stop ends the game.

Option 2: Go for it. Benefit: a first down allows the 49ers to (a)get closer to the end zone and (b)take more time off the clock. Drawback: if you fail, the Bengals get the ball back with plenty of time to down the field for they tying TD. Another drawback is that the Bengals potentially would not be in four down territory on their next drive.

There are times to gamble and times not to. This is not that time.

Kick the field goal and make the Bengals go down the field twice in a short amount of time.

Coach Nolan decided to gamble. Incomplete pass. Bengals take possession.

The wrong choice. Thnkfully for Nolan and the 49ers, Carson Palmer was unable to get the Bengals into the end zone for the tying touchdown.

Let's take a look at the 49ers coaching situation.

a. Mike Nolan's record since taking over for the 2005 season: 4-12, 7-9 and 4-10 so far this year. Not good.
b. Linebacker coach Mike Singletary is a leading candidate to become the new head coach in Atlanta.
c. 49ers ownership want Mike Singletary to replace Nolan as head coach at some point in the future.

To simplify: The Mike Nolan experiment has failed. If they want to keep Mike Singletary, they'll have to fire Nolan at the end of the season.

Well, that’s if for me.

Prediction for Thursday night’s game: Steelers over the Rams.

I’ll be back with my full predictions for Week 16 on Friday afternoon.

Predictions For Week 15 In The NFL

Recommended Reading
(1)
Steve Wyche Atlanta Journal Constitution "Falcon CB Rips Petrino"
http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sports/falcons/stories/2007/12/12/hall_1213.html
Reason to read this article: insider reports on how Falcon players truly feel about former coach Bobby Petrino.
(2)
Jeff Gordon, St Louis Post Dispatch "For Rams It Could Have Been Worse Under The Conditions" http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/columnists.nsf/jeffgordon/story/60D694388731F831862573AD000A11F4?OpenDocument
Reason to read this article: excellent analysis on Scott Linehan’s job security
(3)
Jason Whitlock, Kansas City Star "Herm Deserves Time To Rebuild" http://www.kansascity.com/sports/columnists/jason_whitlock/story/395741.html
Reason to read this article: excellent analysis on Herman Edwards’ job security
(4)
Joe Posnanski, Kansas City Star "KC owes Peterson a lot, but it’s time for him to go"
http://www.kansascity.com/180/story/385724.html
Reason to read: a columnist thinks Chiefs GM Carl Peterson should be fired. Very in depth, a must read.
(5)
Monte Pool, San Francisco Examiner "Nolan over and over fumbled the ball"
http://www.insidebayarea.com/sports/ci_7699532
Reason to read: an in depth analysis of the relationship between 49er quarterback Alex Smith and 49er head coach Mike Nolan. (Note: this won’t have a happy ending)

On to my predictions for Week 15

Last week I was a sensational 13-3, making me 93-52 for the season. 64.2%. Not bad. Not excellent, but not bad at all.

Bills over Browns: quite simply, the biggest AFC match this week.
Why? If the Bills lose, they are eliminated. A Bills loss coupled with a Titan loss to KC would mean that the only team that can catch the Browns for the last playoff spot is Denver. Not only that, but for Denver to catch Cleveland they’d have to go 3-0 to finish the season, while Cleveland loses to both the 49ers and Bengals. Not bloody likely.

A Bills win would tie them with Cleveland at 8-6. The Bills would have both the head to head tiebreaker plus the better conference record (7-5 to 6-5)

So this is the swing game. Fans of the Titans, and either the Broncos or Texans are looking closely and hoping for a Bills win.

And yes the Bills will win. Speaking of the Texans and the Broncos...

Broncos over Texans: quite simply, this is an AFC Playoff Game between a pair of 6-7 teams. The winner gets to 7-7 but the major stumbling block is that even if the Browns lose, the Bills would move to 8-6, which is still one game up with only 2 games to play.

Titans over Chiefs: The only question surrounding the Chiefs now are whether GM Carl Peterson and coach Herman Edwards will be fired. Noone expects KC to win another game this season.

The Titans need this game badly: hopefully the blown 14 point 4th quarter lead to the Chargers will be forgotten once this game starts.

Redskins over Giants: I am picking Washington for 2 reasons. (A)I believe that Joe Gibbs has one more playoff push before he retires and (b)they have an extra three days of rest due to having played a Thursday game the week before.

Saints over the Cardinals: quite simply, this is an NFC Playoff Game. The loser is out, perhaps not mathematically, but in every other way.
I’m going with the Saints because whenever the Cardinals play a big game, they lose.

Vikings over the Bears: The Vikings are hoping for 3 things to happen on Sunday.
(1)Redskins lose to the Giants
(2)Lions lose to the Chargers
(3)Cardinals beat the Saints

If this trifecta occurs, then the Vikings would need only win 2 of their last 3 games to make the playoffs. The Vikes schedule: Bears, Redskins, Broncos.

Bengals over 49ers: Do you think this is a meaningless game? Think again. Marvin Lewis has never finished below .500 and he doesn’t want to start now. That means the Bengals have to win their last three and the journey begins against San Francisco.

Bucs over Falcons: The Bucs will look to wrap up the NFC South by beating a Falcons team that has given up, both emotionally and physically. Did you see the effort on national TV Monday night? You didn’t? I can’t blame you because there wasn’t any.

Ravens over Dolphins: I’d really like to pick Miami because I feel so bad for Cam Cameron. A year ago at this time he was the offensive coordinator for the 14-2 Chargers. Now he’s at the helm of a ship that has nothing but leaks.

Packers over Rams: Brock Berlin will be making his second straight start. Berlin is a decent quarterback but needs much more game experience before I can pick him to beat Favre and the Packers.

Cowboys over Eagles: If the Eagles were 6-7 I’d pick them to win simply because they would desperately need the game. But the Eagles are 5-8, still mathematically alive but who’s kidding whom? If McNabb struggles, don’t be surprised if Kevin Kolb takes a few snaps in the 4th quarter.

Seattle over Carolina: Last year the Panthers were 6-4 heading into week 12. Since then they have gone 7-12. At 5-8 the Panthers have given up and John Fox will pay the price once the season ends. One would expect that Seattle, having clinched their division and knowing they won’t get a bye week, will suffer a letdown. They will, but they’ll still win.

New England over the Jets: The no brainer of the week. If I were Eric Mangini, I’d blitz on every down and make sure Tom Brady gets hit hard on each and every play. Who cares about 15 yard penalties? If the Jets are going to lose, they better make sure to get their licks in.

Steelers over Jags: Another big game. The Jags are trying to lock up the #5 seed and the Steelers are trying to win their division.

The Steelers are one game up on the Browns, two games up if you include the series sweep. If Pittsburgh loses and the Browns win, they’d be tied for the division lead. The Steelers would have the Rams and Ravens, the Browns would have the 49ers and Bengals. Seems like a simple schedule for both teams but nothing ever is in December.

The Steelers win this game based on the desperation factor.

If the Steelers lose however, they may drop to the #4 seed in the AFC because...

Chargers over Lions: A San Diego win and a Steeler loss would vault the Chargers into the # 3 seed.
The Chargers and Steelers would both be 9-5, but the Chargers would have the better conference record (7-3 versus 7-4) The Browns, should they beat the Bills, would also have a 7-4 conference record.

How does Detroit recover after blowing a 13 point 4th quarter lead to Dallas? They don’t.

Colts over the Raiders: Colts are trying to lock up the # 2 seed which would guarantee a bye week. Why isn’t Jamarcus Russell starting for the Raiders? The 2 game winning streak is over, and the playoffs are officially out of the question. Shouldn’t the young QB with the 31 million dollar signing bonus get significant playing time in the next 3 games?

That’s it for me. I’ll be back Tuesday afternoon with my usual look at Sunday’s games.

Week 14 In The NFL

Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks on the team990.com

This week I will try something different. I’ll analyze games specifically instead of tackling subjects one by one.

But before I do, a reader’s email needs to be answered. And I have to ask one question.

Dedicated reader Anthony Ricciardi sent this email late Sunday night. “Tony Romo led the Cowboys to another comeback win today (versus Detroit). Since he took over for Bledsoe, does Romo have the most comeback wins in the NFL?"

Thank you for the email Anthony. I’ll be glad to answer your question. Tony Romo took over as the Cowboys starting QB in Week 7 last year.

So who has the most 4th quarter comeback wins since week 7 of the 2006 season?

The winner with FIVE 4th quarter comeback victories is.....actually there are three winners....Romo, Philip Rivers and Vince Young.

Anthony, isn’t it interesting that on the day Tony Romo brought the Cowboys back from 13 points down versus Detroit, Philip Rivers was bringing the Chargers from 14 points down against the Titans, who were quarterbacked by...Vince Young. Seven degrees of Kevin Bacon comes to mind.

Second question: which quarterback has the most GAME WINNING DRIVES since week 7 of the 2006 season?

Answer: I won’t tell you right now.

I will tell you that this quarterback has SIX game winning drives since Tony Romo became a starter.

I will tell you who it isn’t. The following quarterbacks all have FIVE game winning drives since Tony Romo replaced Drew Bledsoe (remember him)

Philip Rivers, Vince Young, Tony Romo, Ben Roethslinger, Tom Brady, Brett Favre.

I’ll narrow it down for you some more.

These quarterbacks have FOUR game winning drives since Week 7 of the 2006 season:

Alex Smith (don’t laugh) Jeff Garcia, Rex Grossman (don’t laugh), Matt Hasselback, Eli Manning, Damon Huard, Jon Kitna.

So who is this 4th quarter maestro with SIX game winning drives in the last 25 weeks of regular season action?

I’ll print the best emails, whether the answer is right or wrong. You can send them to me at jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com

The answer may or may not surprise you.

What is a Game Winning Drive? When the game is tied at any time in the 4th quarter (without either team leading) at the time the winning points are put on the board

What is a Comeback drive? When the team that wins the game is trailing at any time during the 4th quarter

On to Sunday’s games. There is lots to cover.

Patriots 34 Steelers 13 : 16-0 Is Now A Guarantee

The Steelers were the only hope in preventing a Patriot 16-0 season.

The Steelers failed to get the job done.

I give you this guarantee: The Patriots will go 16-0. Not much of a guarantee since everyone thinks the same thing. Let’s take a look.

Next week versus the Jets: they better bring a scoreboard that can reach triple digits because it will be ugly. For the Jets. Patriots win.

Week 16 versus the Dolphins: repeat previous two sentences.

Week 17 versus the Giants: the Giants are 9-4. Only a miracle can prevent the Giants from missing the playoffs. That isn’t the issue however. The issue is that the Giants cannot get a bye week under any circumstances, since they won’t win their division.

What does this have to do with the Patriots? Everything. No bye week for New York means Head Coach Tom Coughlin will treat the Patriots game as a bye week and rest all his starters.

Excellent approach by Coughlin. Not great for the NFL Network that will be broadcasting the game, but good for the Giants.

Patriots 34 Steelers 13 : Tom Brady And The Records He Might Break

In1984 Dan Marino threw for 5084 yards, an average of 318 per game.

This year, after 13 games, Tom Brady has thrown for 4095 yards, an average of 315 per game.

But don’t worry Brady fans. With the Spygate Revenge game this weekend, Brady can get back on track by throwing for 354 yards.

Brady might pick up those yards in the first half alone.

On to the record for most touchdown passes in a season.

Peyton Manning threw 49 touchdown passes in 2004.

Brady has thrown 45 touchdown passes in 13 games thus far.

Don’t be surprised if Brady throws five touchdown passes against the Jets in the first half alone.

Cowboys 28 Lions 27 : Don’t Try To Be A Hero

If the Arizona Cardinals miss the playoffs by one game, they’ll think about the opening Monday Night Game against the San Francisco 49ers.

What happened on opening night? The 49ers were driving for a go-ahead touchdown in the final minute. With 30 seconds left, Alex Smith completed what should have been a touchdown pass to Arnaz Battle. However Battle had the ball stripped at the goal line and Cardinal safety Terrance Holt had a chance to end the game.

All Holt had to do was (a)fall on the ball in the end zone for a touchback or (b)push the ball out of the back of the end zone for a touchback. Either (a) or (b) would have ended the game because the Cardinals would have gained possession.

Instead, Terrance Holt tried to pick up the ball and run with it. He lost the ball, the 49ers recovered in the end zone and scored the winning touchdown one play later. (Offensive team cannot advance a forward fumble in the last 2 minutes of a half or game)

What does the situation I just described have to do with the Lions? Only everything.

1:28 left in the 4th quarter. Cowboys trailing 27-21, down to their last possession, no timeouts remaining. Here is the AP description of what happened.

“On the fifth play of the Cowboys' winning drive, defensive end Jared DeVries batted the ball out of Romo's hands. Linebacker Paris Lenon had a chance for the recovery but couldn't grab the ball. Cowboys guard Kyle Kozier -- a former Lion -- fell on it.

Six plays later, Dallas got the touchdown and extra point to win.”

Just like my title “Don’t Try To Be A Hero” says, don’t try to be a hero. Just fall on the ball!!!. Don’t be fancy!!! Fall on the ball, game is over.

Why do defensive players try to pick up a bouncing ball and start running with it? This is not their specialty.

Both the Lions and Cardinals are 6-7 , one game out of a playoff spot. When the season ends they’ll think of these 2 plays more than any others. Unless they make the playoffs, which seems unlikely at this point.

Cowboys 28 Lions 27 : That Phrase Again “Tragic Inevitability”

Admit it, during the 4th quarter you were thinking of how this game reminded you of the Ravens Patriots Monday nighter

(a)Overmatched struggling team on a losing streak playing at home against a superpower.

(b)Struggling team has been airing dirty laundry in public

(c)Struggling team is leading throughout, but keeps missing chances to put the game away.

(d)Home crowd keeps waiting for, as Tony Kornheiser so eloquently stated on Monday Night Football, the “tragic inevitability” of defeat.

Something will go wrong for the Lions. I knew it. Since 2001, it always has.

Redskins 24 Bears 16 : The Last Chance For Joe Gibbs

The Skins are 6-7, one game behind the Vikings for the final playoff spot.

The bad news first: Jason Campbell is done for the season.

Now the good news: The Skins control their destiny: If they win their last three, they’ll make the playoffs.

Now the really good news: When the chips are down, Joe Gibbs has a history of winning late in the season. Let’s take a look.

1985: Skins are 5-5 and in a tight playoff race. They are playing the Giants on Monday Night Football. Their season is on the line. Joe Thiesmann breaks his leg (yes, that game) and is replaced by some unknown named Jay Schroeder. Result: 4th quarter comeback beats the Giants, unknown quarterback goes 4-1 the rest of way as the Skins finish 10-6

1989: Skins had just lost to the 0-10 Cowboys, falling to 5-6. They were in a tight playoff race. Desperate times? Sure. A problem? Not with Joe Gibbs as coach. Skins won their last five games to finish the season 10-6.

1992: Skins were 6-5 and in a tight playoff race. (Aren’t they always?) The Skins won their next three to go to 9-5, enough to get them into the playoffs despite losing their last 2.

Okay, that was the story of the Redskins during the Joe Gibbs, Version One years.

What about Joe Gibbs, Version Two years? Have the Skins staged any late season rallies?

Yes they have.

2005: Skins were 5-3, in good position for a playoff push. Then they blew three straight 4th quarter leads to the Bucs, Chargers and Raiders. Suddenly they were 5-6 and in a tight playoff race (again) The Skins then turned back the clock to the 80's and won their last 5 games, finishing 10-6 and even winning a playoff game.

So Skins fans don’t fret, don’t worry. At least not yet.

Colts 44 Ravens 20 : Three Losers From This Game

There were three losers from this game.

Loser or Losers Number 1:
The Ravens: national television audience and they don’t bother to show up. Where is the heart, hustle and desire that Ray Lewis always talks about. The Ravens should be ashamed of themselves.

Loser Number 2:
Head Coach Brian Billick.: Let’s not kid ourselves. The Ravens are a better team than this. Want proof? Last Monday’s game against the Patriots, when they went toe to toe and almost came away giant killers.

Was it just me or did the Ravens look like a team that was trying to get their coach fired?

How can any team fall behind 30-0 early in the 2nd quarter? It doesn’t matter if you are playing the 1989 49ers or the 1998 Broncos: it is still professional football.

I had the privelege of seeing the game on a huge TV screen and I was not impressed by two things.

(A)There was no bumping of the Colts receivers at the line of scrimmage. None whatsover

(B)The blitzing was sporadic and when it was called, done halfheartedly

Which brings me to LOSER Number 3 from the Colts Ravens game

Loser Number 3:
Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan

Midway through the 4th quarter of the Patriots Ravens game, I am sure everyone was thinking the same thing I was thinking: this guy Rex Ryan may be head coaching material.

Background: defensive specialist. Check
Genetics: he’s Buddy’s boy. Check

Now I am not so sure. There will be at least five head coaching vacancies this January and I am not convinced that Rex Ryan will be picked for any of them.

Six days ago Ryan called timeout just when the Ravens were stuffing Tom Brady on 4th and inches. Now on national television his unit pulls a disappearing act.

Ryan still might get a head coaching job in January, but he better hope that owners and GM’s conveniently forget about the Colts debacle.

Giants 16 Eagles 13 : Three Close Ones In A Row, It’s Over For Philly

Three weeks ago the Eagles were 5-5, on the outskirts of the playoffs but getting there quick.

Three weeks later the Eagles are 5-8 and done for. The sad reality is that the Eagles could just as easily have been 8-5. But they are not. Too bad.

What is truly depressing is that in each of their three losses the Eagles were in enemy territory late in the 4th quarter but were unable to punch in the winning/tying points. Let’s take a closer look.

Two weeks ago versus the Patriots: trailing 31-28, AJ Feely took the ball on his 8 yard line with 7:14 left in the 4th quarter. 7 plays later, the Eagles were on the Patriot 29 yard line, facing a 2nd and 4. Worst case scenario: 47 yard field goal attempt to tie the game by ace David Akers.

That would have been the worst case scenario. Unfortunately Feely tried to force a pass into the end zone, easy interception, Pats ran out the clock. Eagles lose, fall to 5-6.

Last week versus Seattle: trailing 28-24 with 4:20 left, the Eagles reached the Seahawk 44 yard line, but AJ Feely threw incomplete on 4th and 6 with 1:56 remaining.

But the game wasn’t over. Using their timeouts, they forced Seattle to punt, and Brian Westbrook returned the kick 64 yards all the way to the Seahawk 14 yard line. There was 1:16 remaining.

It wasn’t meant to be. Sack, followed by a short run, then Feely was intercepted on 4th and 11 with 12 seconds left. Now the game was over.

Finally, yesterday against the Giants: trailing 16-13 Donovan McNabb got the ball back with 5:51 remaining on his 5 yard line. 7 plays later McNabb threw incomplete on 4th and 5 from the Giant 44 yard line. There was 1:57 left. Sound familiar?

But the game wasn’t over. Sound familiar? With 2 timeouts the Eagles forced a punt and got the ball back on their own 11 yard line with 53 seconds left.

3 completions for 50 yards brought the ball to the Giant 39. Unfortunately, with the chance to bring the game to overtime, David Akers hit the upright from 57 yards out. No overtime.

And so brings a conclusion to the Eagles, version 2007.

Browns 24 Jets 18 : Uhh.... What Was That All About?

I am not sure I understand.

Jets trail 17-12 with 1:54 remaining. Jets have all 3 timeouts.

Jets ball on the Browns 20 yard line. It is 4th and 10.

Jets Coach Eric Mangini had a couple of options at his disposal.

Option 1: Kick a field goal to make the score 17-15. From there the Jets can try an onside kick or kick deep and force a three and out.

If the Jets try an onside kick and fail, they can still force a three and out but the best starting field position they can expect is their own 20 yard line with about 1:15 left.

If the Jets kick deep and force a three and out, they can expect starting field position at their own 30-35, again with about 1:15 remaining.

In both situations, the Jets would only need to get into field goal range.

Option 2: Simple. Gamble on 4th down.

What’s the worst thing that can happen if the Jets fail to get a first down at the Brown 20 yard line?

The Browns would get the ball back, but the Jets would still have 3 timeouts remaining to force a three and out. A Browns punt would bring the Jets field position at about their 35-40 yard line.

The only difference between Option 1 and Option 2 is that if the Jets fail to get a first down, they would need a touchdown instead of a field goal, assuming they get the ball back..

With all that being said, the only sensible decision is to go for it.

Think about it logically. By gambling and getting a first down, the Jets avoid having to (a)put their defense on the field and (b)attempt an onside kick. Gambling simplifies everything.

Instead of looking at all the variables (and there are plenty of them) Mangini would have been better served to go for it and ask for a defensive stop if the gamble failed.

Instead, Mangini decided to kick the field goal, which made the score 17-15.

The onside kick failed. Three plays later, Jamaal Lewis scored from 31 yards out to put the game away.

Yes, there are risks with gambling on 4th and 10. But kicking a field goal requires that the Jets either (a) recover the onside kick or (b)force a three and out.

Basically, by kicking a field goal, Mangini decided to include many different elements in his strategy. Just go for it.

Seahawks 42 Cardinals 21 : Positives Followed By Negatives

This is the story of the Cardinals: Every time there is a positive, it is followed immediately by a negative.

Example 1: Cards down 24-0 late in the first half. Kurt Warner takes them down the field and converts a 4th and 2 from the 11 into a touchdown. Cards trail 24-7 at the half, but with some momentum.

Except...except that the Cards special teams gives Seattle great field position and the Cards defense allows Seattle to get into field goal range. 41 yard field goal and the momentum is gone. 27-7 Seattle at the half.

Example 2: Cards get a touchdown with a minute left in the 3rd quarter. They trail 27-14, a two possession game. A defensive stand would give Kurt Warner plenty of time to execute the hurry up offense to get the Cards back into the game.

Except that there was no need for a defensive stand. Neil Rackers recovered his own surprise onside kick, giving the Cardinals great field position at the 43 yard line.

This was great news for Arizona, a huge momentum shift except... Kurt Warner threw a pick on the very next play..

Example 3: But that’s okay because the Cards get their defensive stand. Sort of. Seattle gets to the Cards 10 yard line with 12 minutes left in the 4th quarter, and on 3rd down Hasselback throws the ball away. That’s okay, chip shot field goal makes it 30-14, still a two possession game. The odds aren’t with the Cards, to be sure, but the game is not over.

Except...except.... defensive tackle Darnell Dockett decides to take an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, giving Seattle an automatic first down. Very nice work if you can get it.

Result: 3 plays later, Hasselback touchdown pass to Marcus Pollard and the game is now truly over.

Buffalo 38 Miami 17 : No Gamble, Another Loss

I wish to ask Dolphins head coach Cam Cameron a question: what were you thinking?

Your team is down 31-7 at the half. With one minute left in the 3rd quarter your team has made it 31-17 and has the ball at the Bills 45 yard line. It is 4th and 4.

The punting unit comes onto the field. Coach Cameron, why aren’t you gambling?

You’re 0-12, potentially on the way to 0-16. Your offense has scored on two straight possessions so they are moving the ball reasonably well. What have you got to lose?

Coaches who refuse to take risks usually fail and Coach Cameron is no exception.

Dolphins punt. Bills get the ball on their 15 yard line, 7 plays later, touchdown and it is 38-17 Bills. Game Over.


Jaguars 37 Panthers 6 : Another Gamble, Another Win

Unlike Cam Cameron, Jack Del Rio isn’t afraid to take chances. Regular readers of Touchdowns and Kicks are well aware of my admiration of Del Rio’s risky play calling. Are risks worthwhile? Maybe not, but who can argue with a 9-4 record?

On to this week’s Del Rio gamble.

Situation: game scoreless, 4 minutes left in the 1st quarter. 4th and 2 from the Panther 35 yard line. How many times have you seen a coach go for the long field goal or punt the ball in order win the field position battle? The answer: too often.

The Jaguars on the other hand, have made a living out of early game gambles. Yesterday was no exception. Gamble, screen pass to Maurice Jones Drew for 13 yards followed by a 22 yard strike to Reggie Williams for a touchdown. 7-0 Jags and they never trailed.

The lesson: teams have to be willing to take chances in order to be successful.


Well that’s it for me. I hope you enjoyed my commentary on all things NFL. I’ll be back Thursday afternoon with my Week 15 predictions.

Predictions For Week 14 In The NFL

What an exciting Monday Night Football Game. One of the best I have ever seen.

Before posting my thoughts on the Ravens _ Patriots game I will share with you my notes from very early in the 4th quarter, when I thought that the Ravens would pull of the upset.

(1)Brian Billick will not be fired for three reasons (a)he just beat the 11-0 Patriots!!! (b)he’s got three years left on his contract (c)yes, he’s only 5-7 but he was 13-3 in 2006 so give him one more year to find out which season is the better indicator for the future.

(2)Jason Garrett, you have company. A new young gun is ready to move into the head coaching ranks. His name is Rex Ryan, son of Buddy Ryan and defensive coordinator for the Ravens. On national TV with his team a 20 point underdog against one of the most explosive offenses ever, he made all the right moves. Owners and GM’s around the league are certainly paying attention.

((3)Kyle Boller has finally come into his own. He looks confident, he’s moving well in the pocker and best of all, he doesn’t have to worry about Steve McNair, who is done for the season.

The Ravens will miss the playoffs but they are 5-7 and they just beat one of the best teams of all time. What a Cinderella story......

On the reality.....

Here are my post game notes.

(1)Where was Kyle Boller throwing the ball? The Ravens are on the Patriot 30, 13:30 left in the game and leading by 7. It is 3rd and 14. A safe play that gains a few yards will give the Ravens the option of (a)trying a shorter field goal or (b)going for it on 4th and a more manageable distance. Instead a poor decision and a poor throw, interception Patriots, nice return, ball at their own 43.

With a 7 point lead, the key to the drive should have been to add points and make it a two possession game.

(2)Give the ball to Willis McGahee! I know he is tired and he’s got cramps to boot. But on the biggest play of the game you should let Willis run the ball.

3:54 to play, 3rd and a long 1, short 2 on the Raven 36 yard line. Patriots have 3 timeouts. If The Ravens can get a first down here, they will force the Patriots to use their timeouts on defense.

Instead of a simple handoff to McGahee however we get a pass in the flat to McGahee, great tackle by Rodney Harrison, timeout #1 Patriots, Ravens punt.

(3)Why aren’t the Ravens sending pressure Brady’s way? Why are they playing prevent defense now? The selective blitzing has created havoc in the Patriots protection schemes all game long, and now that the game hangs in the balance they decide to play it safe.

Brady gets the ball back with 3:30 left, on his 27 yard line, 2 timeouts, needing a touchdown. Ravens send only three on every snap. What’s up with that?

(4)Good decision to call timeout before the 4th and 1 attempt. It didn’t look like the Ravens were set properly. However, the Ravens stuffed Brady on the QB sneak at the exact same time that Rex Ryan was calling timeout. To clarify, great decision, but bad luck. To further clarify, Rex Ryan will be the one who gets hurt by this timeout. Perhaps owners and GM’s will remember this mistake in January when they interview him for a head coaching job. That is, unless the Ravens win the game.
But who’s kidding whom? The Ravens are not keeping the Patriots out of the end zone.

(5)Absolutely inexcusable behaviour by Bart Scott. Yes, he is upset. Yes, the holding call on 4th down was ticky tacky, the officials completely messed up in allowing the game to continue.

But you have to maintain composure even in the most distressing times.

Scott’s situation reminded me of something written by George Plimpton in his classic football book “Mad Ducks And Bears”. Plimpton was quoting Hall of Fame defensive lineman Alex Karras, who was discussing how a player must act when the officials make a mistake.

To paraphrase Karras: I get very upset at a bad call but I don’t get that upset. Why? Because if I do something stupid I will cost my team another 15 yards on top of what the ref just gave our opponents. Can’t do that to my team.

What did Bart Scott’s 30 yards worth of penalties cost the Ravens? A lot of field position.

Rewind: touchdown Patriots for a 27-24 lead with 44 seconds left. Ravens with one timeout left. The Patriots will kick off from their 30. With Ed Reed returning the kick, the Ravens can be guaranteed starting field position anywhere from their own 30 to midfield, assuming the officials don’t penalize the Ravens on the return.

Instead the Patriots kick off from the Ravens 35 yard line. Do you think for one moment that Stephen Gostkowski will do anything except kick it through the end zone? Of course not.

Ravens start from their own 20 with only one timeout. Every yard of Bart Scott’s stupidity cost the Ravens a decent chance at getting into decent field goal range for a Matt Stover game tying attempt.

How bad should the Ravens feel about blowing the game? Let us count the ways.

(1)In 2007, a team has outrushed their opponents by 75 yards or more a total of 57 times. The Ravens outrushed the Patriots by 76 yards (166 to 90). How did these teams do? Extremely well to the tune of a 52-5 (91.2%) record. Yet the Ravens lost.

(2)In 2007, teams that averaged more than 3.20 yards per pass play than their opponents are 44-3 (93.6%) The Ravens had a differential of 3.37 (9.13 to 5.76) Yet the Ravens still lost.

(3)In 2007, teams that have had 13 or more rushing attempts in a game are 70-6 (92.1%) The Ravens had 13 more attempts than the Patriots. Yet the Ravens still lost.

If the Ravens didn’t feel sick before, they must surely be sick now.

An Important Question Regarding the Ravens: should fans feel sympathy for them?

The answer: absolutely not.

Why? Rewind to the Ravens opening Monday night game against the Bengals. Ravens trail by 7, facing a 4th and goal at the Bengal 11 yard line with 2 minutes remaining.

Incomplete pass. Game over. But wait. Holding on the Bengals. Ticky tack call at best. New set of downs for Baltimore at the Bengal 6 yard line.

Unfortunately for the Ravens, Todd Heap dropped a sure touchdown and the deflection turned into an interception. Now it was truly game over for Baltimore.

I don’t remember Coach Billick complaining about the tick tack holding call that night. Great call, the receiver was being held, we deserved the new set of downs.

Baltimore fans please stop complaining. You had a similar situation drop into your lap against Cincy but failed to capitalize. The Patriots took advanatage. End of story.

On to my predictions for Week 14 In The NFL.

I was a very mediocre 9-7 last week, making me a mediocre 80-49 for the season. I am not impressed with me.

Some playoff notes to pass along:

Chargers: if they beat the Titans and the Broncos lose to the Chiefs, they are in the playoffs

Bucs: a win over Houston OR losses by both Carolina and New Orleans clinches the NFC South

Seahawks: a win over the Cards clinches the NFC West

Redskins beat the Bears: Loser gets eliminated. Winner gets a new life. Both teams have lost three games each when they were leading or tied in the 4th quarter.

Steelers over Patriots: If the Patriots win this game they will finish undefeated. The Pats won’t lose to the Jets or Miami and the Giants will have clinched a playoff spot by the time their Saturday game in Week 17 takes place. Giants coach Tom Coughlin will rest his starters since he won’t be getting a bye week. The Steelers have the power running game, they can get to the quarterback, they have a quarterback who can move the ball down the field quickly and they have one extra day of rest. The Patriots will not finish undefeated.

Saints over Falcons: The Saints may be 5-7 but they control their fate thanks to the NFL scheduling. Look at how it plays out: “easy” game against the 3-9 Falcons, followed by games against the 6-6 Cardinals and the 5-7 Eagles and Bears.

Vikings over the 49ers: At 3-6 I wrote that the Vikings were done. Now they are 6-6, tied for the last playoff spot in the NFC and...they play the 3-9 49ers. If the Vikes are to make the playoffs they have to win this game.

Eagles over Giants: The Eagles must win if they have a chance to make the playoffs.

Seahawks over Cardinals: A win by Seattle will win the NFC West. A loss by the Cards would still keep them alive in the wild card race. In a must win game I cannot trust the Cardinals.

Chargers over Titans: Big for both teams, but especially for the Titans. The Chargers can lose and still win a weak AFC West. However if the Chargers win and the Broncos lose to the Chiefs, the Chargers will win the the AFC West.

Tampa Bay over Houston: The Texans are 5-7 two games out of the last playoff spot, held by Tennessee and Cleveland. The Texans have lost 2 straight to...guess who...Tennessee and Cleveland. If Houston missesd the playoffs, and they will, those are the games they will remember: when they had a shot and failed.

Cleveland over the Jets: If the Titans lose, as I predict, then the Browns will be all alone at 8-5, holding onto a playoff spot.

Rams over Bengals: Rams are 3-1 since their 0-8 start, which has probably saved Scott Linehan’s job. Bengals will not reach .500 for the first time since Marvin Lewis took over.

Colts over the Ravens: after the 4th quarter disaster versus the Patriots, how do the Ravens recover on a short week?

Bills over Miami: The Bills need this game BADLY. Win they get to 7-6 with the Browns up next. Why must the Bills win this game above all else? Because the Browns play the Bengals and 49ers in the last two weeks. If the Bills lose to the winless Dolphins, next week’s contest against Cleveland won’t matter.

Jacksonville over Carolina: The Panthers run defense will not have an answer for Maurice Jones Drew or Fred Taylor. The Jags will move one step closer to a playoff spot.

Cowboys over Lions: Can you imagine a Lions team on a four game losing streak beating an 11-1 Cowboys juggernaut?

Broncos over Chiefs: Broncos can make playoffs only by winning the division. They have to win their next 2 games and hope that the Chargers split their next two. This would set up a winner take all matchup in Week 16 between the two teams.

Green Bay over Oakland: The streak is over. Oakland will not win a third straight game.

That’s it for me. Return to Touchdowns and Kicks on Tuesday afternoon for my thoughts on Sunday’s games.

Week 13 In The NFL

Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the team990.com

Let's get down to business right away.

Question One
Since the start of the 2004 season, which quarterback has led the most fourth quarter comebacks when his team was trailing by 9 or more points?

Answer: Eli Manning, 4 times

No other quarterback has more than 2 such comebacks

Next on the list:
Tom Brady 2
Vince Young 2
Ben Roethlisberger 2
Tom Brady 2
Drew Bledsoe 2
Rex Grossman 2

Question Two
Since the start of the 2004 season, which quarterback has led the most 4th quarter comebacks?

Here is the list

Ben Roethlisberger 9
Carson Palmer 8
Tom Brady 7
Jake Delhomme 7
Drew Bledsoe 7
Brett Favre 7
Eli Manning 7
Matt Hasselback 7
Trent Green 6
Byron Leftwich 6
Drew Brees 6
Peyton Manning 6

The Final Playoff Spot In The NFC : One Fine Mess

Let’s get down to business in a hurry.

Dallas 11-1: In the playoffs
Green Bay 10-2: In the playoffs
Tampa Bay 8-4: Almost impossible to miss the playoffs
Seattle 8-4: Almost impossible to miss the playoffs

NY Giants 8-4: Almost impossible to miss the playoffs

Let’s explain.
The NYGiants have a 2 game lead in the race for the 1st wild card spot. One win would put them at 9-7. The only way to miss the playoffs would be if 2 of the 3 teams at 6-6 go 3-1 the rest of the way.

The Seattle Seawhawks are in the exact same spot as the Giants. One win and they are in.

The Bucs have a 3 game lead plus the tiebreaker on the Saints and Panthers in the NFC South. The only way for Tampa Bay to miss the playoffs is if (a)they lose all 4 games and (b)either the Falcons or Saints win their remaining 4 games.

Now the fun begins

Three teams are tied for the final wild card spot at 6-6: Detroit, Arizona and Minnesota

Five teams are one game back at 5-7: Bears, Redskins, Eagles, Saints and Panthers

That’s right, eight teams, count them, are jammed within one game. And in all probability, one and only one of these eight teams will make the playoffs.

Who’s Hot and Who’s Not

NFC
The Cowboys have won 6 straight since losing to New England
Tampa Bay and Seattle were both 4-4 to start the season. Since then, both teams have won 4 straight to get to 8-4.
The Rams started the season 0-8. Since then, they have won 3 of 4
The Vikings were 3-6, after 3 straight wins they are 6-6
The Lions and Redskins have both lost 4 straight
The Falcons have lost 3 straight

AFC
The Patriots have won 12 straight
The next best winning streak belongs to the Colts. Their streak is at 3.
The Dolphins losing streak is at 12, and counting....
The Ravens were playoff contenders at 4-2, 6 losses later...
The Chiefs were playoff contenders at 4-3, 5 losses later...

When Things Aren’t Going Well.....

You have to feel bad for Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis. In his first four seasons, Lewis has never finished with a record below .500.

This season, following their loss to the Steelers on national TV, the Bengals are 4-8.

How bad was the loss to the Steelers? The Bengals were plus three in the turnover department.

How successful are teams with a plus three turnover differential: since the start of the 2003 season, they are 176-18 (90.7%)

So the Bengals had a 90% statistical chance of beating their bitter rivals, and still lost by 14 points.

When things aren’t going well....

Recommended Reading

Sid Hartman “Rookie draft picks again play major role for Vikings” Minneapolis Star Tribune
http://www.startribune.com/507/story/1587246.html

Bob Wojnowski “Free-falling Lions are not tough enough” Detroit News
http://detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071203/OPINION03/712030367/1126/SPORTS0101

Tim Kawakami “Nolan's sideline rant could define his era with 49ers” Bay Area Tribune
http://www.insidebayarea.com/sports/ci_7624011

Can Brett Favre Break Dan Marino’s Single Season Record For Passing Yards?

Heading into the Cowboys game, Packers QB Brett Favre had thrown for 3356 yards, an average of 306 per game.

The NFL record for most yards passing in a season: 5084 in 1984 by, who else, Dan Marino.

So heading into the Cowboys game, Favre had an outside shot at breaking Marino’s record.

However, Favre was hit hard, injured and taken out in the second quarter after throwing for only 56 yards.

Favre’s updated average yards passing per game: 284

If Favre is to break Marino’s record, he will have to throw for 1672 yards the rest of the way, an average of 417 per game.

When Will Brett Favre Break Dan Marino’s Record For Most Passing Yards, All Time?

If Favre stays healthy, he will break Dan Marino’s record for most yards passing in a career.

Marino’s record: 61,361
Favre currently at 60,912

Yards needed to break record: 450

I had predicted that Favre would break the record against the Raiders in Week 14.

However, as everyone knows, Favre was knocked out early against Dallas. This means that Favre will have to wait a week before passing Marino, since he only added 56 yards before his injury.

Updated Time of Record Breaking Ceremony: 4th quarter of the Packers – Rams game on December 16th.

When Should Brett Favre Return To The Lineup?

Favre’s situation is very reminiscent of what happened with Dan Marino during the 1999 season.

Recap: Dan Marino suffered a shoulder injury in week 5. The Dolphins were 4-1 at the time.

Marino’s replacement, Damon Huard, did a splendid job over the next 5 games, going an equivalent 4-1, bringing the Dolphins record to 8-2, just a hop skip jump away from a prime playoff spot.

What was Jimmy Johnson’s strategy regarding Dan Marino’s return to the lineup? A very simple one: when Marino was perfectly healthy, he’d be back under centre. With an 8-2 record, Johnson could afford to be patient.

Problem: Dan Marino had pride and thought he could heal quickly. He rushed himself back in the lineup for a Thanksgiving game against the Cowboys. Result: a 20-0 loss. Marino 14 of 35 for 176 yards and FIVE interceptions.

Marino stayed in the lineup until the end of the season despite diminishing results. The Dolphins finished 9-7, backed into the playoffs and lost 61-7 to the Jaguars in Marino’s final start.

Where is this leading? Favre also has pride and I am sure he thinks he can heal quickly.

However, what might be best for the Packers is for Favre to take a week or two or three off, and be absolutely rested for the playoffs. The Dolphins and Jimmy Johnson learned this lesson the hard way in 1999 what happens when the opposite occurs.

The only complication: the Streak. Does Favre want to end his string of 249 consecutive starts?

For the good of his team, perhaps he should.


Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Gambler Of The Week

Nothing more can be said about Jon Gruden except the following: he’s got guts.

Situation: Bucs trail the Saints 23-20 at the 2:00 warning. They have the ball at the Saints 28 yard line. 1 timeout remaining.

Option 1: Kick the field goal. If it’s good, tie game and the Saints would have plenty of time to go down the field for the winning points.

If the kick failed, the Saints would be able to run the clock to around 0:30 before punting, leaving Tampa Bay with little or no chance to get close enough for a tying field goal attempt.

Option 2: Go for it. Advantage 1: a first down would allow Tampa Bay to milk the clock to zero, whereby they could try a field goal attempt, most likely from closer range. If the kick is good and the Bucs win the toss to start overtime, the Saints defense would be exhausted from having been on the field for an eternity.

Advantage 2: a first down would give the Bucs a new set of downs which would allow them, hopefully, multiple opportunities to get into the end zone for the go-ahead points.

Disadvantage: if the gamble fails, the Bucs would be in the same position as a missed field goal. With only one timeout to stop the clock, the Saints would be able to bring the clock to around 0:30 before punting.

Added to all these options were the standings. Bucs 7-4, Saints 5-6. Bucs beat the Saints earlier in the season, so another Bucs win would give ostensibly give the Bucs a four game lead (3 games in the standings and one for the tiebreaker)

A Bucs loss, on the other hand, would put the Saints only one game back

What happened? Jon Gruden pulled a Jack Del Rio. He gambled big. And won.

Earnest Graham 2 yard gain and a first down. Four plays later, Luke McCown found Jeremy Stevens in the end zone with 14 seconds left from 4 yards out on 3rd and goal.

End result makes Jon Gruden look like a genius. Bucs have an absolute stranglehold on the NFC South. Saints in a four way tie at 5-7, one game back of the Lions, Vikings and Cardinals for the last playoff spot.

Sean Payton Made It All Possible

The Bucs may have won the game after gambling on 4th and 1, but Saints coach Sean Payton made it all possible with his bizarre play-calling.

Situation: Saints ball, 2nd and 10 on their own 49, 3:41 remaining in the 4th quarter. Clock stopped, Tampa Bay down to their last timeout.

Conventional wisdom calls for a combination of either
(a) 2 running plays, which would milk the clock down to about 2:30 after the punt, keeping in mind that a kick from midfield has a good chance of ending in the end zone, meaning the Bucs would start from their own 20 at best, inside their own 10 at worst.
(b)safe passes, perhaps a screen to move closer to a game ending first down.

A double reverse that begins to develop 8 yards behind the line of scrimmage doesn’t qualify as conventional.

Of course, if the play worked Saints coach Sean Payton would be the one hailed as a genius today, not Jon Gruden.

However, the play failed miserably, Reggie Bush tried a toss after taking the handoff on the original reverse play, Bucs recover at the Saint 27, giving them the great field position that they used towards their winning touchdown.

Speaking Of The Rambling Gambling Man, An Update On Jack Del Rio

Touchdowns and Kicks has been detailing the 4th down gambles made by the Jaguars in the last three weeks. Why should this week be any different?

Jags against the Colts in a huge game: if the Jags win, they are tied with the Colts for the AFC South lead and the number 2 seed in the AFC.

Gamble 1: 8:30 left in the 3rd quarter, Jags trail the Colts 21-7. 4th and 1 from the Colt 3 yard line.
A field goal makes it 21-10, a two possession game. But the Jags are at the 3 yard line. If the Jags go for it and fail, the Colts would begin their drive with their backs on their goal line.

How many times is a team going to advance to their opponents goal line? Not often, so therefore they have to take their chances when they do so.

Jack Del Rio gambled. Garrard quarterback sneak, first down, followed by a play action pass in the end zone to Marcedes Lewis. Touchdown, Jags trail 21-14.

The Jags were still trailing 21-14 early in the 4th quarter, ball on the Colt 8 yard line, 3rd and 1. Jags a few plays away from tying the game.

Next play Maurice Jones Drew fights for a yard barely gets a first down, giving the Jags a whole new set of downs to get the all important tying touchdown except for......

Reggie Williams, Loser Of The Week, Part One

Yes, Reggie Williams, wide receiver for the Jaguars. The loser of the week.

Why? Well, we were discussing the Jags and how they picked up the first down to bring them closer to tying the Colts.

Except that Reggie Williams had other ideas. Williams, in his infinite wisdom, decided to take a cheap shot on Bob Sanders after the whistle. 15 yards, ball now on the 22 yard line instead of the 7.

The Jags ended up settling for a field goal, making the score 21-17.

A stupid penalty at a critical time. The penalty may end up costing the Jags both the division and the number 2 seed.

Joe Gibbs Version 2, Loser Of The Week, Part Two

I have been picking on Joe Gibbs version 2 all season long. Blown 4th quarter leads, his and the coaching staff’s inability to properly develop Jason Campbell, clock management errors, you name it, I’ve blasted Joe Gibbs.

And now Sean Taylor gets murdered.

Have I possibly been too harsh in my criticism? Perhaps. But after Sunday’s game against the Bills, I don’t think so.

Situation: Skins lead 16-14, Bills lining up for a 51 yard game winning field goal attempt. 8 seconds remain in the 4th quarter. Skins have three timeouts remaining. The Bills have none. The field is wet and slippery.

Gibbs calls his first timeout to ice the kicker. Good thing the timeout was called because Rian Lindell was perfect on the attempt.

Anyone who has followed football for a decent amount of time knows that the same team cannot call consecutive timeouts. Doing so will result in a 15 yards delay of game/unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. I know this and I am sure almost everyone else does too.

Can the same team call two timeouts before a snap? Yes, if their opponent calls a timeout in between.

Example: Redskins call timeout to ice the kicker. Then the Bills call timeout to clear the spot where Lindell will kick from. In that situation the Skins could call another timeout. Why? Because their opponent called one in between.

This is incredibly simple to understand. You would figure that a three time Super Bowl winning coach would be similarly informed.

When the Bills lined up after the Skins timeout, I heard the whistle blow again and thought, “the Bills called timeout because they want to fix the area where Lindell is kicking from”.

Then I realized “wait a minute the Bills don’t have a timeout, that means the Skins called timeout, and will be penalized 15 yards, making it a much easier 36 yard attempt.” If you saw Bills coach Dick Jauron go crazy on the sidelines, you’d know he was feeling the same way too.

It was inexcusable for the Redskins to call a second timeout. Amateur hour are two words that come to mind.

Cleveland Loses, Poetic Justice

On Sunday, the Browns trailed the Cardinals 27-21 with 4 seconds remaining, ball on the Cards 37. Time for a Hail Mary.

It worked. Derek Anderson to a double covered Kellen Winslow down the right sideline, great catch but before Winslow could keep his feet in bounds he was pushed out.

If the referees ruled that Winslow would have kept his feet in bounds had he not been pushed, it would have been a touchdown. It also would not have been reviewable.

Being pushed out of bounds is a judgement call on the part of the officials. It is not reviewable. Therefore the Browns got screwed out of a win.

Why is this poetic justice? Because the Browns won a game in exactly the same fashion last season.

Situation: Browns lead the Jets 20-13, 1:06 left in the 4th quarter. Jets have the ball on the Browns 24 yard line. 4th down.

Pennington completes a pass to Chris Baker in the end zone, but before Baker could keep his feet in bounds, he is pushed out. Officials call it incomplete. Browns win.

Once again, being pushed out of bounds is not reviewable It is a judgement call.

I guess that the old saying is correct. “What comes around goes around.”

That’s it for me this week. I’ll be back with my predictions post on Thursday night, before the Bears-Redskins game.

Predictions For Week 13 In The NFL

Predictions For Week 13 In The NFL

Last week I was a mediocre 8-7 (forgot to even predict the Titans game), making me 71-42 for the season.

Here is an abbreviated predictions post for Week 13, written just a few minutes before the Packers take the field against the ‘Boys.

Here we go.

Vikings over Lions: This is the biggest game of the week in the NFC. This game will dictate how the number 2 wild card spot in the NFC will play out. A win by the Lions will likely eliminate the Vikings. A combination of the Lions and Giants winning will eliminate the Bears as well. If the Lions and Giants both lose, then there is a possibility that the Giants will be the first wild card #1 at 7-5, with as many as 7 teams tied for the second wild card at 6-6.

Bears over Giants: And that is exactly what will happen. Bears and Vikes will move to 6-6, Lions drop to 6-6 and the Giants end up at 7-5.

Seattle over Philadelphia: The Seahawks will move one step closer to making the playoffs for the 5^th straight season. The Eagles will fall to 5-7 seven days after almost beating the mighty Patriots.

Falcons over Rams: They both have been eliminated so in a meaningless game, I’ll go with the Falcons.

Houston over Tennessee: Both teams need to win badly, the Texans especially. The Titans have lost three straight after starting 6-2.

Browns over Cardinals: A Cards loss and a Seahawk win will place the Cards in a position where the only route to the playoffs is as the second wild card. Browns will win again which will (a)guarantee that Romeo doesn’t get fired and (b)Brady Quinn keeps holding a clipboard.

Redskins over the Bills: The Skins will need all their emotional strength to get past the next few days. A win here gets them to 6-6. The Bills need this game badly as well. A loss and they are out. I’ll go with the Skins and emotion.

Cowboys over Packers: Green Bay’s inability to run the ball often will hurt them against an elite team like Dallas.

Carolina over San Francisco: I cannot believe that the Panthers will lose a sixth straight game.

Jaguars over Colts: A Jags win will place Jacksonville in the AFC South lead, plus they’ll be the number 2 seed.

Chargers over Chiefs: The Chiefs must win every game the rest of the way with a first year starter at both the running back (Kolby Smith) and quarterback position (Brodie Croyle) Way too much to ask.

Jets over Dolphins: I feel bad for Cam Cameron. Last year he was the offensive coordinator for a 14-2 Chargers team. Had Marty Shottenheimer been fired immediately after the Patriot playoff loss, Cameron would have been the head coach of a 14-2 team. Instead Cameron jumped to the Sunshine State immediately: now he is the coach of an 0-11 team.

Patriots over Ravens: Lock of the week

In other games: Broncos over Raiders, Bucs over Saints, Steelers over Bengals

That’s it for me. I’ll be back with my Week 13 thoughts on Tuesday afternoon.

Week 12 In The NFL

Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the team990.com

This week we’ll be looking at the following

-how good are the Patriots (very)
-how close Brett Favre is to breaking another record (very)
-did Jack Del Rio gamble again on 4th down (of course)
-did Jason Campbell fail in the 4th quarter again (most definitely)
-the Bears and Rex
-the Chiefs wasting timeouts

and an assortment of other subjects that I hope you find entertaining and worthwhile.

Without further delay, here I go again.

An Update On Brett Favre: When Will He Break Dan Marino’s Yardage Record?

The only record left for Brett Favre to break is most passing yards by a quarterback, held by none other than Dan Marino.

Dan Marino 61,361
Brett Favre 60,856

Yards needed to break record: 506

Favre is averaging 306 yards passing per game this season.

Using that number as a barometer, Brett Favre will break Marino’s record on Sunday, December 9th, against the Oakland Raiders, in the 3rd quarter, to be exact.

How Good Are The New England Patriots? Part 1 In A Never Ending Story

For those football fans who think that New England’s 11-0 record is a product of an easy schedule, please think again.

Since the NFL went to a 16 game schedule in 1978, 21 teams have finished with either a 14-2 or 15-1 record.

Assuming that the Patriots do not lose 3 of their last 5 games, they will be the 22nd club to join this illustrious group.

Which of these 14-2 or 15-1 teams had the toughest schedule?

Let’s look at the top 5
1.Washington 1991 127-113-0 (.529)
2.NEW ENGLAND 2007 58-52-0 (.527)
3.NEW ENGLAND 2004 124-116-0 (.517)
4.Pittsburgh 2004 123-117-0 (.513)
5.(TIE)Washington 1983 120-116-4 (.508)
5.(TIE)NEW ENGLAND 2003 122-118-0 (.508)

As you can see, the Patriots, after 11 games, have the second toughest schedule among the 22 teams that finished with either a 14-2 or 15-1 record. The Patriots will definitely finish with 14 or 15 wins, maybe even...let’s not jinx them.

The Patriots are not feasting on soft opposition. That is the moral of this story.

How Good Are The New England Patriots? Part 2 In A Never Ending Story

When the Patriots took the lead against the Eagles in the 4th quarter, it was time for me to close my TV. The game was over.

Since Tom Brady took over three games into the 2001 season, the Patriots are 81-1 in the regular season when they have the lead at any time during the 4th quarter.

During that same time period,, the Patriots have won 16 games when they have been trailing at any time during the 4th quarter.

Sixteen comeback victories versus one blown fourth quarter lead since 2001. Impressive.

Schedule Strength, Lane Kiffin and Brian Billick

Which two teams have had the easiest schedule so far in 2007?

The results may surprise you.

The Oakland Raiders are 3-8. Since their Super Bowl appearance in January 2003, their record has been progressing downward: 4-12, 5-11, 4-12 and 2-14. Therefore their 3-8 record this year is hardly surprising.

What is surprising is the following: after 11 weeks the Raiders have had the league’s easiest schedule.

Yes it is true. Oakland’s opponents have a combined record of 53-68. If you adjust the record to include only the games played against anyone but Oakland, the record becomes 45-65, the easiest schedule in the NFL.

Baltimore is 4-7. Not good. You’d think that their 4-7 record is a result of a tough schedule.

You’d be wrong. Baltimore has the second easiest schedule in the NFL so far: opponents are currently 46-64.

The Detroit Lions Lost To The Packers ....And Guess Who Benefited?

In my predictions post last Wednesday, I wrote about how all eyes in the NFC were on the Detroit Lions. Why? Because the Lions were in sole possession of the final wild card spot at 6-4. If the Lions could beat the Packers on Thanksgiving, they would put all the pressure on other teams to catch them.

The Lions lost to the Packers and they fell to 6-5.

This opened the door to the three teams at 5-5: the Redskins, Cardinals and Eagles.

So what happened?

The Redskins lost to Tampa Bay
The Cardinals lost to San Francisco
The Eagles lost to New England

Oh yes I almost forgot. Quite a few teams benefited from the Lions loss, just not the ones directly behind them.

The Vikings beat the Giants. The Vikings are now 5-6
The Saints beat the Panthers. The Saints are now 5-6
The Bears beat the Broncos. Chicago is now 5-6

So how does the NFC wild card picture stack up right now.

Wild Card 1: New York Giants 7-4
Wild Card 2: Detroit Lions 6-5
Redskins, Eagles, Cardinals, Vikings, Saints and Bears are all 5-6

It seems to me that 8-8 might be enough to get you into the playoffs.

Remember this:
Last season the Giants were a wild card with an 8-8 record
In 2004, the Vikings and Rams qualified as wild cards with 8-8 record
In 1999, the Lions and Cowboys both qualified as wild cards with 8-8 record

The Bears Are Still Very Much Alive, Thank You Rex Grossman, Special Teams and Defense

Two weeks ago against the Raiders Rex Grossman had a defining moment. Having been benched a month earlier in favor of Brian Griese, Rex needed redemption. He got redemption and a defining moment, at least for a few days.

Down 6-3 to Oakland, the Bears got the ball back on their own 30 yard line with just under 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter. Rex had replaced an ineffective/injured Griese late in the first half with limited success. With a 3-5 record the Bears were in a must win situation.

Rex delivered and it only took 2 passes. 10 yards to Cedric Benson then 59 yards and a TD to Brian Berrian for the go-ahead and winning touchdown. Bears win 17-6, Bears get to 4-5. Rex was the starting quarterback again.

The following week against Seattle, Rex did not deliver. Down 7 with 8:10 left in the 4th quarter, Rex took over from his 20 yard line. 3 straight completions for 47 yards brought the ball to the Seattle 42 yard line. It looked like Rex was going to tie the game with a touchdown.

It wasn’t to be. Rex was sacked, fumbled, Seattle recovered and kicked a field goal with 3:30 left, making it a 10 point game. Game Over.

And now...the Broncos game. This was an absolute must win situation in a series of must win games for both the Bears and Broncos, but especially for the Bears.

To quote CBS analyst Dan Dierdorf , “it is a must win situation for both teams, but especially for the Bears. I mean, the Broncos play in the AFC West, so they can afford a loss, but the Bears, if they lose they are done.”

So how did Rex do? Rex did extremely well. The Bears special teams as well. Defense also.

Down 34-20 with just over seven minutes left in the 4th quarter, the Bears blocked a punt, giving them great field position on the Bronco 15 yard line.

10 yards to Greg Olsen, short 1 yarder to John Gilmore set up an Adrian Petersen TD run (not that Adrian Petersen) Bears down 7, 5:13 to go.

Now it was the defense’s turn. Get the ball back to Rex with enough time on the clock to move down the field and maybe just maybe, there can be overtime.

After just one first down, Denver was forced to punt, giving the Bears one last chance with 2:58 to play. Season, as Dan Dierdorf of CBS kept repeating, was on the line.

Just like the Oakland game, Rex delivered: 5 of 8 for 47 yards, including a great throw on 4th and goal from the 3 that required a circus catch by Brian Berrian to force overtime.

Overtime was just a formality. The Bears were destined to win and Rex only threw one pass: 39 yards to Desmond Clark that brought them to the Denver 37. Adrian Petersen 4 runs for 14 yards plus a Denver penalty brought out Robbie Gould for a 39 yarder straight and true.

Bears are 5-6. Very much alive. Why?

There are five other teams at 5-6 and the Bears play 3 of them: Minnesota, Washington and New Orleans. They still have to win those games but at least they are in the equation.


An Update On Jack Del Rio, The Rambling Gambling Man

Last week I wrote in great detail how Jaguars Head Coach Jack Del Rio’s gambling tendencies have helped the Jags beat the Chargers and Titans back to back.

Well, I thought it would be nice to give an update on Jack Del Rio and whether he gambled on 4th down today against the Bills.

Obviously he did. He’s not Jack Del Rio for nothing. And it worked. Again. Sort of. Let me explain.

Situation: Jags lead 13-7, 3:20 left in the 2nd quarter. 4th and 1 at the Bills 41 yard line.

Field Goal is out of the equation. A punt in the end zone would yield a net gain of only 21 yards.
Jags went for it, but unlike their attempts against Tennessee and San Diego, they failed. Maurice Jones Drew lost 5 yards.

Bills got possession. 3 plays later, JP Losman fumbled, Jags recovered. 7 plays later, Josh Scobee kicked a 22 yard field goal. 16-7 Jags.

What did we learn from the failed 4th down attempt? That Jack Del Rio (a)has the confidence in his offensive line to get him 1 yard every time (b)has confidence in his defence to get him the ball back if his offense cannot get the one yard and (c)the team has confidence in itself to get it done as well.

Teams have to be willing to gamble in short yardage situations near midfield. The Jags do this as well as, if not better, than any other team in the NFL. Even when they fail, they seem to succeed.

An Update On Jason Campbell: Another Failed Final Drive

An update on a coach, now an update on a quarterback.

Last week I wrote in excruciating detail how Redskins quarterback Jason Campbell has failed to get the necessary points in his final drive four times this season: against the Giants, packers, Eagles and Cowboys. On each occasion Campbell had enough time to get the job done: each time he and the Redskins failed.

Today against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers it happened again.

Redskins trailed 19-13, own 7 yard line, 3:05 remaining.

Campbell did a great job running the hurry up offense, or 2 minute drill if you will. He completed his first 7 passes on the drive for 66 yards. Add in a 2 yard scramble and the Redskins had the ball on the Buc 16 yard line.

Unfortunately, that was the extent of the good news for Skins fans. Next snap incomplete and then Campbell threw an interception in the end zone.

Make that 5 games this season where Jason Campbell had enough time to get the necessary points on his final drive and failed.

What Was Herman Edwards Thinking?

The Chiefs lost to the 2-8 Raiders today at Arrowhead. KC is now 4-7, three games out of the wild card race and two games out of the AFC West division lead.

The Chiefs play the Chargers next week and the Broncos the week after. Let’s just say that beating both teams that are ahead of you in the division is imperative if the Chiefs are to make the playoffs. One loss and they are toast.

Why did the Chiefs lose to the Raiders? Two words: Herman Edwards.

I am not a big fan of Herman Edwards. I have never made a secret of my distaste for Coach Edwards, both when he was Jets Head Coach and especially now that he is Chiefs Head Coach.

I will acknowledge that Edwards does have a good record when it comes to making the playoffs, having done so in four of his six full seasons as a head coach, not including 2007.

So what exactly happened?

Situation: Chiefs trail 20-17. It is 3rd and 5 on the Raider 27 yard line. 4:41 left in the 4th quarter. Clock is moving. Chiefs have all 3 timeouts remaining.

What happened on 3rd down? Completed pass to Eddie Kennison to the 23. A circus catch by Kennison, he rolled over, ball landed between his legs. The ball was spotted reasonably close to where it should have been. It is now 4th and 1 for the Chiefs at the Raider 23.

Herman Edwards decided he was going to go for it. He called timeout to set up the all important 4th down play. Should he have gone for it? It is debatable. Quarterback Brody Croyle is making his second career start, his running back Kolby Smith is making his first career start. Should Edwards trust either Kolby or Croyle on such a gamble? The season is hanging in the balance.

I would have attempted a game tying 40 yard field goal, but that is hardly the issue. Either decision is one I would support. 4:26 with 2 timeouts is plenty of time for a defense to get the ball back in case the 4th down play fails.

The issue is what happened next. During the timeout, Edwards and his offensive coordinator Mike Solari came up with the idea of challenging the spot where Kennison caught the ball. It was a poor decision for two reasons (a)the spot was very close to being accurate and (b)Coordinator Solari had plenty of time to view the game tape to make the same determination. A close extended look at the play should have discouraged such a challenge.

Why is this a problem? The Chiefs have already called a timeout, which they cannot get back. A team that throws the challenge flag on a play that is not reversed will lose ANOTHER timeout. If a team calls a timeout, THEN decides to challenge the play, they will not get their ORIGINAL timeout back even if the call is reversed. If the call is not reversed, they will lose a timeout on top of the timeout they already called. Got all that. It really is not that complicated.

The play was not reversed. The Chiefs lost a timeout, meaning they only had one timeout remaining with 4:26 left in the fourth quarter.

A 4th down gamble was an option BEFORE the officials review. AFTER the officials review, a 4th down gamble should have been thrown out the window. Why? A failed 4th down gamble with only one timeout remaining would allow the Raiders the to run out the clock with two first downs.

Kick the field goal and then hope your defense gets you the ball back. If you miss the field goal, and from 41 yards out it is not a chip shot, then your defense will have to work even harder.

You know the rest. Chiefs gamble, Kolby Smith, who had a great game until the 4th down play, gets stuffed.

Raiders take possession, 2 first downs later, Game Over for the Chiefs.

Should Cam Cameron Be Fired?

An 0-11 record will not guarantee a head coach any kind of job security. And rightfully so. 0-11 is 0-11, and 0-11 is not good.

Cam Cameron is 0-11 in his first season as a head coach.

However, keep the following information handy.

Tom Landy went 0-11-1 in his rookie season (1960) Landry won two Super Bowls
Chuck Noll went 1-13 in his rookie season (1969) He won four Super Bowls
Bill Walsh went 2-14 in his rookie season (1979) Walsh won three Super Bowls
Jimmy Johnson went 1-15 in his rookie season (1989) Jimmy won two Super Bowls
Bill Parcells went 3-12-1 in his rookie season (1983) The Tuna won two Super Bowls

I would never suggest that Cam Cameron should keep his job based on everything I just wrote.

However, sometimes a coach needs time to build a winning team.

Just a thought.

Meet The New Boss. Same As The Old Boss. The Story of Ken Whisenhunt

Imagine that you are Arizona Cardinals Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt. Your franchise is a loser, having made the playoffs just once since 1982. The records of your predecessors are absolutely awful: Gene Stallings (22-32) Joe Bugel (20-44) Buddy Ryan (12-20) Vince Tobin (28-43) Dave McGinnis (17-4) Dennis Green (16-32)

The reason you were hired by Arizona is because you were the offensive coordinator of a Super Bowl winning team: the Steelers of January 2006. As a result, your pedigree of success was very attractive to owners of downtrodden franchises, the Cardinals being at the top of the list.

Your team is 5-5, one game out of both a wild card berth and the division lead. Nothing worthy of a parade but in the NFC it will do quite nicely.

A few days previous the team ahead of you in the wild card standings lost, that team being the Detroit Lions. The door was opened for you.

Then, earlier in the day, one of the teams that was tied with you, the Washington Redskins, also lost. The door was opened even more.

The other 5-5 team, the Philadelphia Eagles, was schedule to play the 10-0 Patriots in the evening game. Not a guaranteed loss for the Eagles mind you, but...oh who are we kidding? Eagles lose, they fall to 5-6, just like the Redskins. The door has been smashed open. All you and your team have to do is win your game to put you in a tie for the last playoff spot and keep you one game out of the division lead.

And who are you playing? The 49ers, a team with the worst offense in the league and on an 8 game losing streak.

If you’re Ken Whisenhunt, you were hired to be the Cardinals head coach for just such a game. An extremely winnable game. Stallings, Bugel, Buddy, Tobin, McGinnis and Green couldn’t win these games. But you’re Ken Whisenhunt, you are different. You’ll find a way to win against a 2-8 team. Nobody in the Cards organization cares how you do it, but you have to win this game to get to 6-5.

Except you don’t. You blow a 4 point lead in the 4th quarter, but you tie the game up at the end of regulation. You win the coin toss, you go down the field but you take a delay of game penalty on the play where your kicker puts it through the uprights.

And since you are coach of the Cardinals, you just know that your kicker will miss the official kick on the next snap.

But that’s okay, because your defense gets you the ball back, albeit on your 4 yard line with 5 minutes left in OT. Figure a couple of running plays to open up the field, then punt, force a three and out and try to score on your last drive.

But since you are coach of the Cardinals, you just know that you’ll lose the game somehow, even against a 2-8 team on an 8 game losing streak.

Your quarterback fumbles the football and the other team recovers in the end zone. The fumble was not relevant of course, since the sack would have equalled a safety and the game would have been over anyways.

So please explain to me Coach Whisenhunt: what separates you from your predecessors?

As The Who once sang in their “Won’t Get Fooled Again”, “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss”.

This was the story of the Arizona Cardinals and Ken Whisenhunt. No matter who is in charge, you can expect to lose.

A Question For Lions Head Coach Rod Marinelli

Picture the situation: The Lions are trailing the Packers 34-12, 10 minutes left in the 4th. Lions get a TD, score is now 34-18, extra point pending. If the Lions go for 2 it becomes a 14 point game, eliminating the need to go for 2 later on (assuming they get another TD of course)

Lions Head Coach Rod Marinelli elects to kick the extra point. It is now 34-19, a 15 point game. But wait...the Packers are offside. This means that the Lions have the following choice: (a)take the extra point they just kicked or (b)go for the 2 point convert from the 1 yard line (half the distance to the goal line)

Why should the Lions go for 2. Because it is easier to score from the 1 yard line than it is to score from the 2.

Marinelli decides to take the extra point. Okay, with 10 minutes left perhaps it is too much of a risk.

The Lions get the ball back quickly, score another TD with 8 minutes left, making it 34-25, extra point pending.

If Marinelli goes for 2 and makes it, it is a 7 point game. If he goes for 2 and misses, it is a 9 point game. If he kicks the extra point, it is an 8 point 8 game. Decisions are the privelege of rank, and Marinelli is the boss.

Marinelli elects to kick the extra point again...and once again Green Bay is offside.

Decisions decisions. At that moment with 8 minutes left, Coach Marinelli had the exact same decision to make.

Option 1: Take the penalty and go for 2 from the 1 yard line
Option 2: Take the extra point

Again, not to nitpick but with the ball on the 1 yard line instead of the 2, the chances of success are greater.

Coach Marinelli takes the extra point, making it 34-26, an 8 point game. This means that the Lions would need a touchdown and a 2 point convert to tie the game, assuming they can get the ball back still trailing by 8. Which they don’t, making the last few paragraphs utterly meaningless.

Joe Gibbs Had The Same Predicament

Do not think that I am picking on Lions Coach Rod Marinelli. Joe Gibbs had a similar predicament against Tampa Bay.

Situation: 11 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, Skins trail 19-3. Skins get a TD, making it 19-9.

A successful 2 point convert makes it a one possession game. If the Skins go for 2 and fail it is a 10 point game.

Joe Gibbs kicks the extra point....and just like the Packers, Tampa Bay jumps offside.

But Joe Gibbs, like Rod Marinelli, decided to take the point instead of go for 2.

Has Anyone Ever Gone For 2 After A Penalty On The Extra Point?

Yes, actually. Trailing the Redskins by 7 in Week 11 of the 2005 season, Tampa Bay scored a touchdown with 48 seconds left. They kicked the extra point but Washington jumped offside.

Bucs Coach Jon Gruden did the unthinkable. He told the referees that he would go for 2, so they spotted the ball at the 1. A failed 2 point convert would end the game. No other coach would have done it. But Gruden did. Result: Mike Alstott got the TD, although replays would show that the ball never crossed the plain of the goal line.

Just some history for team990.com readers.

That’s it for me readers. I’ll be back with my predictions for Week 13 on Thursday night, before the Dallas Green Bay game.

Next Tuesday I’ll delve into the emailbag to answer readers’ comments and questions. If you have a question or comment to make, send it my way at jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com