Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G. Another week gone by, lots to talk about in the NFL. I’ll be answering readers’ emails in my post Saturday along with my predictions. Any questions or comments, please send them to jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com
Let’s get down to business, shall we?
Did You Think The Patriots Would Blow A 4th Quarter Lead?
Once the Patriots took a 24-20 lead with 3:15 to play the game was over.
Why? Because the Patriots under Bill Belichick do not blow 4th quarter leads.
Heading into the Colt game, the Patriots had won their last 32 games when they had a lead at any point in the 4th quarter.
If you need further proof of how dominant the Patriots are at closing the deal, here is their record since 2001 when holding a 4th quarter lead: 79-1 (98.75%)
Brodie Croyle or Damon Huard ?
Brodie Croyle is the young gunslinger, the future of the Kansas City Chiefs franchise. Live arm, lots of upside.
Damon Huard is the veteran, a caretaker who is the Chiefs starter simply because he won’t lose you the game.
The Chiefs are 4-4, tied for first place in the AFC West with the San Diego Chargers.
If you are Chiefs coach Herman Edwards, you have a decision to make: who starts at quarterback?
If Coach Edwards is looking for inspiration before making his decision I have two words for him: Mike Shanahan.
Yes Mike Shanahan. Shanny and the Broncos were 7-4 last season, holding onto a wild card spot. Who was Shanny’s quarterback? Jake Plummer. Plummer the veteran, the caretaker who was expected to do little except not mess up his team’s chances of winning.
What did Shanahan do? He benched Plummer in favor of Jay Cutler, who was considered to be the future of the Broncos franchise. Live arm, lots of upside.
How did that work out for Denver? Cutler went 2-3 in his 5 starts, and the Broncos narrowly missed the playoffs.
If Edwards goes with Croyle, he risks the same fate as Shanahan.
Cutler is both the present and future for Denver. Unfortunately the present isn’t looking so good, what with the Broncos 3-5 and a game out of first place in the AFC West.
Edwards is going to stick with Huard. Why? Because even though Croyle needs to play now in order to develop into a quarterback who can bring a team long term success, the Chiefs and Coach Edwards want to win now.
Croyle will need a few games to adjust to playing regularly in the NFL. The Chiefs don’t have a few games to spare. Every game is a fight for playoff survival.
Speaking Of Young Quarterbacks
Kellen Clemens didn’t put up great numbers against Washington: 23 of 42 for 226 yards is hardly impressive.
But Clemens showed why experts have been calling for him to start at quarterback for the Jets: he possesses poise in the pocket and he finds room to manouevre when the pass rush gets extreme.
And Clemens did a few things that Chad Pennington couldn’t do: find his receivers in stride over the middle and throw a nice deep ball. With Pennington, Jets receivers would have to come back to the ball and passes over the middle would become potential career enders for anyone trying to make the catch.
Take the last drive of regulation: down 3 with just over 5 minutes to play, Clemens drove the Jets from his own 25 to the Skins 11 yard line in 15 plays.
Three times the Jets faced 3rd down and three times Clemens converted: completions to Mcareins and Washington plus a scramble when flushed out of the pocket. Field Goal Jets. Overtime.
Speaking Of Overtime
When you are out of field goal range, the coaches handbook dictates that you never give up field position on 4th and long unless there is a guarantee that your opponent cannot get the ball back or if you are trailing and down to your final possession.
Using this theory, Jets Head Coach Eric Mangini made the right decision.
Situation: It is overtime, Jets have the ball on the Redskin 39, 4th and 7. A field goal is out of the question. 57 yards, outdoors, windy. A missed field goal would give the Skins the ball at their own 47. Not an option.
Again, if the handbook is correct, punting the football has its advantages for the Jets.
(1)The Skins will be pinned inside their 20 as long as the punt doesn’t land in the end zone. If the punt is really good, the Skins might find themselves on the goal line, where a safety becomes a giant possibility.
(2)A three and out will give the Jets another possession near midfield.
If the Jets go for it and fail, they would be giving the Skins the ball back from anywhere between their own 32 to 38 yard line.
I was going to write about how Eric Mangini made the wrong decision, how he should have gone for it. Why not? He’s 1-7 and out of the playoffs. Why not take a risk?
But just like last week when Mangini punted on 4th and 3 on the Bills 42 trailing by 3 late in the 4th quarter, Mangini made the safe, and ultimately, correct choice.
Unfortunately, similar to last week, the Jets still lost. The Bills scored on a long touchdown pass to Lee Evans and yesterday the Skins drove 61 yards in 10 plays to set up Shaun Suisham’s 46 yard overtime field goal.
I’ll repeat what I wrote last week. In 2006, the Jets had the lead or were tied in the 4th quarter 11 times. The Jets won 10 of those games.
In 2007, the Jets have had the lead or were tied in the 4th quarter 6 times. The Jets have only one win.
It Is Time For Jamarcus Russell
The Raiders are 2-6. Whether it be Josh McCown or Daunte Culpepper, the production from the quarterback position has been non existent. In their win against the now 0-8 Dolphins Culpepper ran for three touchdowns but only threw 12 passes, a clear indicator of how much confidence Head Coach Lane Kiffin has in the former Viking star.
Let’s get back to the record. At 2-6 the season is over for Oakland. It is time to face facts.
Culpepper has limited mobility, lacks confidence and shows very little poise in the pocket. There are reasons for Culpepper’s poor performance.
Culpepper completely blew out his knee in week 7 of the 2005 NFL season. It would normally take an athlete, according to medical specialists, a year and a half to fully recover from such an inury.
Culpepper came back in less than 10 months, fully participating in 2006 training camp drills with his new team the Miami Dolphins.
Big mistake. Culpepper only lasted 4 games. His base numbers weren’t terrible: 134 pass attempts, completion percentage 60.4 (good) yards per pass attempt 6.93 (good) only 3 interceptions (excellent). Certainly nothing to complain about.
However, two statistics were problematic for Culpepper in 2006: sacks and wins.
Sacks: In 4 starts as a Dolphin Culpepper was sacked 21 times. If you factor in that he only threw 134 passes, it comes out to 1 sack for every 6.38 pass attempts. There were 1161 sacks and 16,392 pass attempts. The ratio: a sack for every 14.11 pass attempts.
What does all this mean? It means that Culpepper was sacked twice as much as the average quarterback. Bad offensive line play may have been responsible for some of the sacks, but TWICE the league average. It can only mean one thing: IMMOBILE QUARTEBACK IS IN THE LINEUP.
Wins: The Dolphins were 1-3 in Culpepper’s 4 starts. Coupled with his 2-5 starter as Vikings QB in 2005, Culpepper went into the Raiders training camp having lost 8 of his previous 11 starts.
What about 2007? Culpepper has won 2 of his 5 starts, a reasonable record considering that the Raiders were 2-14 last year. Culpepper has a one year contract worth 3.2 million.
Culpepper can definitely still play in the NFL, even as a starter. However, it would have to be on a franchise which can surround him with a good running game, sound offensive line and an overall competitive team. This way Culpepper’s rapidly diminishing physical skills won’t be on display as much.
The Raiders won loss records since losing the Super Bowl in January 2003: 4-12, 5-11, 4-12, 2-14 and thus far in 2007, 2-6. The Raiders are not an “overall competitive team”
Let’s get back to Jamarcus Russell and the reasons he should be starting.
(a)Russell is a first pick overall with unlimited potential. This doesn’t mean anything, of course. Ryan Leaf had unlimited potential as well and how did that work out for the Chargers?
(b)The Raiders are getting no production from their current quarterbacks
(c)The Raiders are 2-6 and out of the playoff picture. If Russell ends up being a bust, start finding out now instead of later.
(d)There are no salary cap implications. Culpepper is not signed past 2007, so he comes off the books once the season ends.
There might be some readers who question why I wouldn’t support Daunte Culpepper starting for the Raiders but in turn support the Kansas City Chiefs for sticking with veteran Damon Huard. Aren’t the situations the same? Veteran quarterback supplanted by up and coming gunslinger?
The answer: the situations are not similar. The Chiefs are in a playoff race. They cannot afford to groom a quarterback when every game is an elimination game. Sticking with a veteran who avoids big mistakes is what will work best for the Chiefs. The Raiders, on the other hand, can throw caution to the wind, roll the dice and let the young QB Jamarcus learn on the field without the pressure of losing a big game.
Recommended Reading
Here are some columns that I recommend to all football fans.
(1)
Woody Paige, Denver Post “Broncos Lucky To Win 6 Games”
http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_7371401
If you want to know why the Broncos are struggling, read Woody.
(2)
Jason Whitlock, Kansas City Star “Chiefs Season Takes Another Strange Twist”
http://www.kansascity.com/sports/columnists/jason_whitlock/story/346905.html
From Priest to LJ, now perhaps the other way around.
(3)
Jim Souhan, Minneapolis Star Tribune “The Rookie Started Slowly But Oh What A Finish”
http://www.startribune.com/souhan/story/1528502.html
Sid Hartman, Minneapolis Star Tribune “It Goes Without Saying, This Kid Is Special”
http://www.startribune.com/507/story/1528511.html
I’ll bunch the above 2 columns together, since they are about the new Superman, Adrian Peterson.
And finally, more from the Minneapolis Star Tribune. This one is also written by Jim Souhan and it involves a certain coach and how he might find himself roaming the Vikings’ sideline very soon.
Jim Souhan, Minneapolis Star Tribune “San Diego Could Land Its Former Coach A Job Today”
http://www.startribune.com/souhan/story/1525444.html
Old Man River Has One Final Record To Break
Brett Favre has broken a few regular season records for quarterbacks this season.
Most Wins by a starting quarterback: Week 2 against the Giants
Most Pass Attempts by a quarterback: Week 3 against the Chargers
Most TD passes by a quarterback: Week 4 against the Vikings
Most Interceptions by a quarterback: Week 6 against the Redskins
Now circle your calendar for Sunday December 9th: Oakland at Green Bay
Why? Because Brett Favre is averaging 301 passing per game this season. If Favre continues this pace he will break Dan Marino’s career record of 61,361 passing yards against the Raiders on that day.
The Bills And The Saints: Something In Common
Let us go back to Week 5 in the NFL.
The Bills blew an 11 point 4th quarter lead at home to the Cowboys, falling to 1-4, seemingly done for the season.
The Saints blew a 7 point lead at home to the Carolina Panthers, falling to 0-4, seemingly done for the season.
Not so fast there.
Since Week 5, the Saints have won four straight and the Bills have won three straight. Both are now 4-4, right in the thick of the playoff race in their respective conferences.
And who the Bills and Saints play this weekend? The Bills play the 0-8 Dolphins and the Saints play the 0-8 Rams.
A perfect opportunity for both the Saints and Bills to finally get over the .500 mark.
That’s it for me. I’ll be back with my predictions for Week 10 on Saturday.
Let’s get down to business, shall we?
Did You Think The Patriots Would Blow A 4th Quarter Lead?
Once the Patriots took a 24-20 lead with 3:15 to play the game was over.
Why? Because the Patriots under Bill Belichick do not blow 4th quarter leads.
Heading into the Colt game, the Patriots had won their last 32 games when they had a lead at any point in the 4th quarter.
If you need further proof of how dominant the Patriots are at closing the deal, here is their record since 2001 when holding a 4th quarter lead: 79-1 (98.75%)
Brodie Croyle or Damon Huard ?
Brodie Croyle is the young gunslinger, the future of the Kansas City Chiefs franchise. Live arm, lots of upside.
Damon Huard is the veteran, a caretaker who is the Chiefs starter simply because he won’t lose you the game.
The Chiefs are 4-4, tied for first place in the AFC West with the San Diego Chargers.
If you are Chiefs coach Herman Edwards, you have a decision to make: who starts at quarterback?
If Coach Edwards is looking for inspiration before making his decision I have two words for him: Mike Shanahan.
Yes Mike Shanahan. Shanny and the Broncos were 7-4 last season, holding onto a wild card spot. Who was Shanny’s quarterback? Jake Plummer. Plummer the veteran, the caretaker who was expected to do little except not mess up his team’s chances of winning.
What did Shanahan do? He benched Plummer in favor of Jay Cutler, who was considered to be the future of the Broncos franchise. Live arm, lots of upside.
How did that work out for Denver? Cutler went 2-3 in his 5 starts, and the Broncos narrowly missed the playoffs.
If Edwards goes with Croyle, he risks the same fate as Shanahan.
Cutler is both the present and future for Denver. Unfortunately the present isn’t looking so good, what with the Broncos 3-5 and a game out of first place in the AFC West.
Edwards is going to stick with Huard. Why? Because even though Croyle needs to play now in order to develop into a quarterback who can bring a team long term success, the Chiefs and Coach Edwards want to win now.
Croyle will need a few games to adjust to playing regularly in the NFL. The Chiefs don’t have a few games to spare. Every game is a fight for playoff survival.
Speaking Of Young Quarterbacks
Kellen Clemens didn’t put up great numbers against Washington: 23 of 42 for 226 yards is hardly impressive.
But Clemens showed why experts have been calling for him to start at quarterback for the Jets: he possesses poise in the pocket and he finds room to manouevre when the pass rush gets extreme.
And Clemens did a few things that Chad Pennington couldn’t do: find his receivers in stride over the middle and throw a nice deep ball. With Pennington, Jets receivers would have to come back to the ball and passes over the middle would become potential career enders for anyone trying to make the catch.
Take the last drive of regulation: down 3 with just over 5 minutes to play, Clemens drove the Jets from his own 25 to the Skins 11 yard line in 15 plays.
Three times the Jets faced 3rd down and three times Clemens converted: completions to Mcareins and Washington plus a scramble when flushed out of the pocket. Field Goal Jets. Overtime.
Speaking Of Overtime
When you are out of field goal range, the coaches handbook dictates that you never give up field position on 4th and long unless there is a guarantee that your opponent cannot get the ball back or if you are trailing and down to your final possession.
Using this theory, Jets Head Coach Eric Mangini made the right decision.
Situation: It is overtime, Jets have the ball on the Redskin 39, 4th and 7. A field goal is out of the question. 57 yards, outdoors, windy. A missed field goal would give the Skins the ball at their own 47. Not an option.
Again, if the handbook is correct, punting the football has its advantages for the Jets.
(1)The Skins will be pinned inside their 20 as long as the punt doesn’t land in the end zone. If the punt is really good, the Skins might find themselves on the goal line, where a safety becomes a giant possibility.
(2)A three and out will give the Jets another possession near midfield.
If the Jets go for it and fail, they would be giving the Skins the ball back from anywhere between their own 32 to 38 yard line.
I was going to write about how Eric Mangini made the wrong decision, how he should have gone for it. Why not? He’s 1-7 and out of the playoffs. Why not take a risk?
But just like last week when Mangini punted on 4th and 3 on the Bills 42 trailing by 3 late in the 4th quarter, Mangini made the safe, and ultimately, correct choice.
Unfortunately, similar to last week, the Jets still lost. The Bills scored on a long touchdown pass to Lee Evans and yesterday the Skins drove 61 yards in 10 plays to set up Shaun Suisham’s 46 yard overtime field goal.
I’ll repeat what I wrote last week. In 2006, the Jets had the lead or were tied in the 4th quarter 11 times. The Jets won 10 of those games.
In 2007, the Jets have had the lead or were tied in the 4th quarter 6 times. The Jets have only one win.
It Is Time For Jamarcus Russell
The Raiders are 2-6. Whether it be Josh McCown or Daunte Culpepper, the production from the quarterback position has been non existent. In their win against the now 0-8 Dolphins Culpepper ran for three touchdowns but only threw 12 passes, a clear indicator of how much confidence Head Coach Lane Kiffin has in the former Viking star.
Let’s get back to the record. At 2-6 the season is over for Oakland. It is time to face facts.
Culpepper has limited mobility, lacks confidence and shows very little poise in the pocket. There are reasons for Culpepper’s poor performance.
Culpepper completely blew out his knee in week 7 of the 2005 NFL season. It would normally take an athlete, according to medical specialists, a year and a half to fully recover from such an inury.
Culpepper came back in less than 10 months, fully participating in 2006 training camp drills with his new team the Miami Dolphins.
Big mistake. Culpepper only lasted 4 games. His base numbers weren’t terrible: 134 pass attempts, completion percentage 60.4 (good) yards per pass attempt 6.93 (good) only 3 interceptions (excellent). Certainly nothing to complain about.
However, two statistics were problematic for Culpepper in 2006: sacks and wins.
Sacks: In 4 starts as a Dolphin Culpepper was sacked 21 times. If you factor in that he only threw 134 passes, it comes out to 1 sack for every 6.38 pass attempts. There were 1161 sacks and 16,392 pass attempts. The ratio: a sack for every 14.11 pass attempts.
What does all this mean? It means that Culpepper was sacked twice as much as the average quarterback. Bad offensive line play may have been responsible for some of the sacks, but TWICE the league average. It can only mean one thing: IMMOBILE QUARTEBACK IS IN THE LINEUP.
Wins: The Dolphins were 1-3 in Culpepper’s 4 starts. Coupled with his 2-5 starter as Vikings QB in 2005, Culpepper went into the Raiders training camp having lost 8 of his previous 11 starts.
What about 2007? Culpepper has won 2 of his 5 starts, a reasonable record considering that the Raiders were 2-14 last year. Culpepper has a one year contract worth 3.2 million.
Culpepper can definitely still play in the NFL, even as a starter. However, it would have to be on a franchise which can surround him with a good running game, sound offensive line and an overall competitive team. This way Culpepper’s rapidly diminishing physical skills won’t be on display as much.
The Raiders won loss records since losing the Super Bowl in January 2003: 4-12, 5-11, 4-12, 2-14 and thus far in 2007, 2-6. The Raiders are not an “overall competitive team”
Let’s get back to Jamarcus Russell and the reasons he should be starting.
(a)Russell is a first pick overall with unlimited potential. This doesn’t mean anything, of course. Ryan Leaf had unlimited potential as well and how did that work out for the Chargers?
(b)The Raiders are getting no production from their current quarterbacks
(c)The Raiders are 2-6 and out of the playoff picture. If Russell ends up being a bust, start finding out now instead of later.
(d)There are no salary cap implications. Culpepper is not signed past 2007, so he comes off the books once the season ends.
There might be some readers who question why I wouldn’t support Daunte Culpepper starting for the Raiders but in turn support the Kansas City Chiefs for sticking with veteran Damon Huard. Aren’t the situations the same? Veteran quarterback supplanted by up and coming gunslinger?
The answer: the situations are not similar. The Chiefs are in a playoff race. They cannot afford to groom a quarterback when every game is an elimination game. Sticking with a veteran who avoids big mistakes is what will work best for the Chiefs. The Raiders, on the other hand, can throw caution to the wind, roll the dice and let the young QB Jamarcus learn on the field without the pressure of losing a big game.
Recommended Reading
Here are some columns that I recommend to all football fans.
(1)
Woody Paige, Denver Post “Broncos Lucky To Win 6 Games”
http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_7371401
If you want to know why the Broncos are struggling, read Woody.
(2)
Jason Whitlock, Kansas City Star “Chiefs Season Takes Another Strange Twist”
http://www.kansascity.com/sports/columnists/jason_whitlock/story/346905.html
From Priest to LJ, now perhaps the other way around.
(3)
Jim Souhan, Minneapolis Star Tribune “The Rookie Started Slowly But Oh What A Finish”
http://www.startribune.com/souhan/story/1528502.html
Sid Hartman, Minneapolis Star Tribune “It Goes Without Saying, This Kid Is Special”
http://www.startribune.com/507/story/1528511.html
I’ll bunch the above 2 columns together, since they are about the new Superman, Adrian Peterson.
And finally, more from the Minneapolis Star Tribune. This one is also written by Jim Souhan and it involves a certain coach and how he might find himself roaming the Vikings’ sideline very soon.
Jim Souhan, Minneapolis Star Tribune “San Diego Could Land Its Former Coach A Job Today”
http://www.startribune.com/souhan/story/1525444.html
Old Man River Has One Final Record To Break
Brett Favre has broken a few regular season records for quarterbacks this season.
Most Wins by a starting quarterback: Week 2 against the Giants
Most Pass Attempts by a quarterback: Week 3 against the Chargers
Most TD passes by a quarterback: Week 4 against the Vikings
Most Interceptions by a quarterback: Week 6 against the Redskins
Now circle your calendar for Sunday December 9th: Oakland at Green Bay
Why? Because Brett Favre is averaging 301 passing per game this season. If Favre continues this pace he will break Dan Marino’s career record of 61,361 passing yards against the Raiders on that day.
The Bills And The Saints: Something In Common
Let us go back to Week 5 in the NFL.
The Bills blew an 11 point 4th quarter lead at home to the Cowboys, falling to 1-4, seemingly done for the season.
The Saints blew a 7 point lead at home to the Carolina Panthers, falling to 0-4, seemingly done for the season.
Not so fast there.
Since Week 5, the Saints have won four straight and the Bills have won three straight. Both are now 4-4, right in the thick of the playoff race in their respective conferences.
And who the Bills and Saints play this weekend? The Bills play the 0-8 Dolphins and the Saints play the 0-8 Rams.
A perfect opportunity for both the Saints and Bills to finally get over the .500 mark.
That’s it for me. I’ll be back with my predictions for Week 10 on Saturday.
No comments:
Post a Comment