An Analysis Of Week 10 In The NFL

Welcome to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the Team 990.com

I’m Jimmy Garoufalis and I’ll be writing NFL and at the end I’ll be analyzing Jim Popp and his 3rd down gamble versus Winnipeg.

Any questions, comments to make. Send them to jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com

I will delve more deeply into the e-mailbag hopefully for my predictions post this Saturday. Today I’ll answer the most pertinent question.

From Jonathan Morell comes an Eagles question.

“I'm a big Eagles fan, so I consider myself lucky that they are in the NFC where they still have a decent shot at the playoffs. Here's my question: With Donovan McNabb returning this year after
the tough surgery last season, do you expect him to ever fully regain the mobility and scrambling ability that has always been a hallmark of his? Can he return to form? Thanks for your time and keep it up!”

Jonathan, I don’t think Donovan will every full regain his scrambling skills and mobility because he has had multiple injuries to his knees/ACL and he is about to turn 31 in a few days. But at the same time I don’t think he has to be a running quarterback to be successful. McNabb is a professional quarterback who is smart enough to change his style on the fly to fit into whatever strategy the team requires.

Donavan McNabb is and should remain the Eagles starting quarterback, Kevin Kolb be damned. And once Andy Reid decides that Kevin Kolb should be the starter, which could take place at next years’s training camp then Donovan should be traded or waived immediately.

Why? Look around. Joey Harrington is starting for Atlanta. Vinny Testeverde is starting in Carolina. Josh McCown in Oakland. Cleo Lemon in Miami. Tarvaris Jackson/Brooks Bollinger/Kelly Holcomb in Minnesota.

Is anyone going to suggest that these teams wouldn’t want Donovan McNabb to be their starting quarterback?

There is a huge market for experienced winning quarterbacks. Donovan McNabb is an experienced winning quarterback.

Now I’d like to focus my Week 10 analysis on the playoff races in both the AFC and NFC.

First the AFC

Division Leaders
New England 9-0
Indianapolis 7-2
Pittsburgh 7-2
SD 5-4

Wild Card Teams
Tennessee 6-3
Jacksonville 6-3

Still fighting hard
Cleveland 5-4
Buffalo 5-4
Kansas City 4-5
Denver 4-5

Perhaps a little too far back
Baltimore 4-5

Let’s start with the basic facts.

(1)The AFC West will produce only one playoff team this season: the division winner and that’s it.

(2)The Colts, Patriots and Steelers have all but clinched their divisions.

(3)Baltimore is finished. The Ravens are two games out of a playoff spot. Even if they beat the Browns next weekend to get to .500, they then play the Chargers, Patriots and Colts back to back to back. The Ravens need to be at least 7-6 with three games remaining to have any chance at making a playoff push. Can the Ravens win three of their next 4 to get to 7-6? Highly unlikely.

(4)The Browns can make the playoffs only as a wild card. By blowing a 21-9 halftime lead to the Steelers, the Browns fell to 5-4, three games back of Pittsburgh (including the tiebreaker) Therefore Cleveland will not be winning the division unless the Steelers collapse, which is very unlikely to happen.

Can the Browns make a playoff push? Let’s look at who the Browns play over the last 7 weeks.

Week 11 Baltimore 4-5
Week 12 Houston 4-5
Week 13 Arizona 4-5
Week 14 NYJets 1-8
Week 15 Buffalo 5-4
Week 16 Cincinnati 3-6
Week 17 San Francisco 2-6*

I’d say the Browns have a better shot than people think. Their schedule, unlike Baltimore’s, does not include powerhouse teams.

(5)Who has the edge among the three AFC West teams? Let’s look at the remaining schedules, shall we?

The Chiefs play: Indianapolis, Oakland, San Diego, Denver, Tennessee, Detroit and NYJets
The Broncos play: Tennessee, Chicago, Oakland, KC, Houston, San Diego and Minnesota.
The Chargers play :Jacksonville, Baltimore, KC, Tennessee, Detroit, Denver, Oakland

Each team plays the other plus Oakland. So those 3 games cancel out.
The Chiefs play 3 teams who are 6-3 or better: the 8-1 Colts, 6-3 Titans and 6-3 Lions
The Chargers play 3 teams who are 6-3 or better: 6-3 Jaguars, 6-3 Titans, and 6-3 Lions
The Broncos play only Tennesse who is at 6-3. The Broncos also play the 4-5 Ravens, 4-5 Bears, 4-5 Texans and 3-6 Vikings.

Face facts: two weeks ago everyone was counting Mike Shanahan and the Broncos out of the playoffs. Now with a big division win on the road and the Chargers only one game up, the Broncos are right back in the thick of things.

(6)The Titans blew a chance to put some distance between themselves and everyone else. A win against the Jags would have given them a 2 game lead over Jacksonville for the first wild card spot, a three game lead if you include the tiebreaker (Titans sweep of the Jags that didn’t take place) If the Titans don’t make the playoffs, this is the game they’ll regret: a home game against a divisional opponent where they came out flat.

(7)If Buffalo Bills Head Coach Dick Jauron is ever going to win a big game against a powerhouse team, next week has to be it. Four game winning streak, 5-4 record, one game out of a playoff spot and they play at home on national TV Sunday night against a 9-0 Patriots team coming off a bye.

After the Patriot game, the Bills travel to Jacksonville and Washington. Tough teams both of them are. Dick Jauron needs to pull out all the stops from his playbook. This game means everything. If he has to stay up until 4 a.m. studying game film so be it. If he can’t see his family for an entire week because he is sleeping on the couch at the office, well them’s the breaks. Whatever it takes, Jauron and the Bills must do.

(8)The Chiefs, I imagine, will be starting Brodie Croyle against the Colts next Sunday. I have been Damon Huard’s biggest supporter but enough is enough! Two consecutive blown second half leads at Arrowhead! I am worried that Brodie Croyle is going to make rookie mistakes just like Jay Cutler did down the stretch for Denver last season.

But as Hall of Fame coach Sid Gillman once said, “Quarterbacks are like tea leaves, you have to put them in hot water to find out what you got”

If the Chiefs are going to find out about Brodie Croyle, they might as well start finding out now.


Now the NFC playoff picture

Division Leaders
Dallas 8-1
Green Bay 8-1
Tampa Bay 5-4
Seattle 5-4

Wild Card Teams
Detroit 6-3
NYGiants 6-3

Still Fighting Hard
Washington 5-4
Arizona 4-5
Carolina 4-5
New Orleans 4-5

Perhaps a little too far back
Philadelphia 4-5
Chicago 4-5

Question 1
If they all have the same record, why are the 4-5 Cardinals, Saints and Panthers listed above the 4-5 Eagles and Bears?
Answer 1
Because the Cards, Saints and Panthers are only one game out the division lead. The Bears and Eagles can’t win their divisions and are 2 games out the wild card. That’s a huge difference.

(1)The Redskins blew another 4th quarter lead to a division opponent. First it was to the Giants and now to the Eagles. They sit at 5-4 and they play Dallas next week. But all is not lost. Why?

(2)The Giants and the Lions both lost as well, and those teams hold the 2 wild card spots at 6-3, one game up on Washington. The Giants and Lions also play each other next week, so unless the game ends in a tie, the Skins are guaranteed at worst to remain one game back for the final playoff spot (should they lose to Dallas) or be tied with the loser of the Giants-Lions (should they beat Dallas)

(3)Let me understand this. The Saints win four straight to get to 4-4, a half game out of first. In order to get to 5-4 all they have to do is beat an 0-8 Rams team at home. Granted the Rams had a bye week but still! The Rams are 0-8! Result: The Saints lose to the Rams 37-29! The loss basically means that for the Saints to make the playoffs they have to win the division.

(4)The Falcons are not out of the playoff picture! Don’t laugh! Look at their schedule.

Week 11 Tampa Bay
Week 12 Indianapolis
Week 13 Saint Louis
Week 14 New Orleans
Week 15 Tampa Bay
Week 16 Arizona
Week 17 Seattle

Aside from the Colts, every is extremely winnable.

Small reminder: In 1992 the San Diego Chargers hired Bobby Ross away from Georgia Tech to be their new head coach. How did the Chargers do? They started 0-4, then rattled off an 11-1 record the rest of the way. See, it is possible.

(5)The Cardinals are one game back of Seattle and have the two biggest games of the season coming up: against the 3-6 Bengals and the 2-7 49ers. They simply cannot split the next two weeks if they are going to make the playoffs. A true playoff team does not lose to the Bengals and 49ers. A playoff wannabe does. Which are the Cardinals? We’ll find out soon enough.

(6)When it comes to 4-5 teams the Bears are in the worst spot. They cannot catch Green Bay and unlike the Eagles, they have been swept by the team directly in front of them (Lions)

(7)Mike Holmgren is a lucky man. His Seahawks have had one of the three easiest schedules in football each season since 2004. What about 2007 you may ask?

If the season ended today, the Seahawks would have played only three games against teams above .500 (Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay)

None of the remaining opponents for Seattle has a record that currently stands over .500


A Small Note About The AFC West

If Brodie Croyle and Jamarcus Russell both start this week for the Chiefs and Raiders, then every quarterback in the division will be either a first of second year starter. Very strange that such an occurrence would take place in the league’s most traditional division.

Everyone Please Apologize To Bill Belichick

Let me understand correctly.

The New England Patriots running up the score by keeping their starters in for practically the entire game makes Bill Belichick a bad person.

Okay so far I understand the reasoning.

Now, using the same reasoning, what do you think of Packers Head Coach Mike McCarthy?

The Packers are leading the Vikings 27-0 with just over 11 minutes to play in the 4th quarter.

They get the ball back and guess who is still under center? Brett Favre.

Okay, so Brett Favre is under center. That doesn’t necessarily mean that the Packers are going to run up the score. Not at all. If they run the ball on every snap that would be showing respect to the Vikings. By running the ball, the Packers would in effect be saying: we are telegraphing our plays, go ahead and stop us. If you don’t stop us, that’s your problem. I’m down with that.

But what does Packer Coach Mike McCarthy decide? He decides that Brett Favre should throw on 4 of the 9 snaps during the drive. Result: TD pass to Ruvell Martin. 34-0 Packers.

Please understand this: I have no problem with teams running up the score. If the opposition cannot stop you, you shouldn’t be forced to stop yourself.

However, everyone should be consistent with their criticism. If you are going to blast Bill Belichick, then blast everyone else who behaves in a similar fashion. Starting with Mike McCarthy.

A Few Words About Jim Popp and Similar Gambles

I cannot post my blog without commenting on Jim Popp and his highly questionable decision to gamble on 3rd and inches from his own 44 yard line with 1:37 to play in the 4th quarter, leading 22-21.

Highly questionable decision? Who is kidding whom?

It was a ridiculous decision made by a coach who put his ego in front of the team’s best interest.

Before continuing, let’s rewind the cassette shall we?

The Alouettes were leading 22-21
The Alouettes were at their own 44 yard line
The Alouettes defense had done a great job containing the Blue Bombers

An average punt by Damon Duval with an average return would have pinned the Bombers inside their own 35 yard line. Those are better odds than a 3rd down gamble that gives the opposition possession at your 44. That is a difference of anywhere between 30-35 yards in field position. A significant amount of yardage even when you factor in that there as plenty of time remaining.

The only decision to make under these circumstances is to punt. Anything else would be madness.

Instead Jim Popp elected to gamble. Marcus Brady is stuffed at the line of scrimmage, Bombers get great field position, Alouettes defense gets pushed back by aggressive Bomber front line and a hungry Charles Roberts gets big yards, Troy Westwood with the chip shot field goal to win the game. End of Alouettes season.

Why would Jim Popp go for it? Ego.

Jim Popp has stood in the background for so long watching his coaches, especially Don Matthews, get credit for the Als regular season success. That’s the nature of football. Head coaches receive the glory when a team is successful. General Managers stay in the background, accumulating respect from the media and maybe the fans.

That’s Jim Popp in a nutshell. Highly respected for his personnel decisions but hardly a guy
that the fans and media think of when they think of the Alouettes and their Grey Cup appearances. Nice man, very capable, a guy who can run my organization any day of the week from the office. But on the field, not a chance.

Most general managers accept the tradeoff because by nature that is how they are.

Jim Popp never struck me that way. Just reading Popp’s comments throughout the season worried me. I got the distinct impression that his boastful nature was not due to confidence, but a result of insecurity. Because Popp does not have an overbearing personality or the Grey Cup titles of a Don Matthews, he had to overcompensate by making bold and brash statements.

Just reading players comments throughout the season one got the impression that noone had confidence in Jim Popp’s coaching abilities. I think Jim Popp had very little confidence in his abilities, ergo, he had to talk tough to try to convince others, and maybe just maybe, he could then convince himself that he was a capable head coach.

Can you imagine any other coach with a sub .500 record saying that he was doing an excellent job. You’d be pressed to find a coach with great prior success to say those words.

Back to Popp.

The team’s best interest was to punt the football and then play good defense to prevent a game winning field goal by the Bombers.

Jim Popp’s best interest was to create an image for himself as an extreme risk taker willing to gamble everything away.

When a team’s intererest and a coach’s interest collide, the team’s best interest better win out. In this case it didn’t and as a result, the Alouettes are going home early.


Has a similar gamble ever taken place before?

I can think of two occasions.

Number 1 Steelers Cowboys Super Bowl X

Steelers lead 21-17, 1:27 remaining. Steelers ball at the Cowboy 42 yard line. 4th and 7.

A punt would give the Cowboys the ball inside their own 20 at best with no timeouts to go down the field.

What did Steelers coach Chuck Noll decide?. He went for it. Run up the middle failed. Cowboy ball at their own 43. Staubach completed two passes to get to the Steeler 40 before throwing an interception in the end zone to end the game.

Number 2 Cowboys Eagles Week 15 1995 Regular Season

Game tied. Cowboys ball at their 29 yard line. 4th and 1. The obvious decision was to punt the football, then force overtime by stopping the Eagles.

Cowboys Head Coach Barry Switzer had other ideas. He gambled. And Lost. Emmitt Smith was stuffed at the line of scrimmage. The Eagles got the ball at the Dallas 29, ran the clock down to zero and kicked the winning field goal.

So Jim Popp had history on his side. He and his supporters can easily quote these very famous incidents just as easily as I can.

Both Noll and Switzer were criticized for their decisions, although Noll ended up winning the game.

But let’s not kid ourselves. The similarities end with the situation. That’s it.

Why are the situations different? The identity of the decision maker, that’s why?

Who was Chuck Noll before he gambled late in Super Bowl X ? Chuck Noll was the head coach of the defending Super Bowl champions. After his gamble, Chuck Noll was the head coach of the two time defending Super Bowl champions.

Who was Barry Switzer before he gambled against the Eagles? Barry Switzer was a three time NCAA champion with Oklahoma, owner of a 12-4 record his rookie season in Dallas and a 10-4 record after the loss to the Eagles. And lest anyone forget, after the failed Switzer gamble, the Cowboys rattled off five straight wins to win the Super Bowl against hey hey, look at the irony here, the Steelers.

Now let’s look at Jim Popp. Who was Jim Popp before he gambled against the Blue Bombers? Owner of an 8-10 record in his first season as a head coach after a lifetime of background work.

That’s it. Nothing else. If Don Matthews goes for it and fails, he can point to his five Grey Cup titles with 4 different teams and the media and fans would have to grudgingly accept a Matthews risk as part of the package. You hire me, Matthews would say, you take the good with the bad, and a Grey Cup would be included somewhere down the line. So you have to accept it.


Well there you have it for another week. I’ll be back on Saturday with my predictions for Week 11 in the NFL.