Week 12 In The NFL

Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G on the team990.com

This week we’ll be looking at the following

-how good are the Patriots (very)
-how close Brett Favre is to breaking another record (very)
-did Jack Del Rio gamble again on 4th down (of course)
-did Jason Campbell fail in the 4th quarter again (most definitely)
-the Bears and Rex
-the Chiefs wasting timeouts

and an assortment of other subjects that I hope you find entertaining and worthwhile.

Without further delay, here I go again.

An Update On Brett Favre: When Will He Break Dan Marino’s Yardage Record?

The only record left for Brett Favre to break is most passing yards by a quarterback, held by none other than Dan Marino.

Dan Marino 61,361
Brett Favre 60,856

Yards needed to break record: 506

Favre is averaging 306 yards passing per game this season.

Using that number as a barometer, Brett Favre will break Marino’s record on Sunday, December 9th, against the Oakland Raiders, in the 3rd quarter, to be exact.

How Good Are The New England Patriots? Part 1 In A Never Ending Story

For those football fans who think that New England’s 11-0 record is a product of an easy schedule, please think again.

Since the NFL went to a 16 game schedule in 1978, 21 teams have finished with either a 14-2 or 15-1 record.

Assuming that the Patriots do not lose 3 of their last 5 games, they will be the 22nd club to join this illustrious group.

Which of these 14-2 or 15-1 teams had the toughest schedule?

Let’s look at the top 5
1.Washington 1991 127-113-0 (.529)
2.NEW ENGLAND 2007 58-52-0 (.527)
3.NEW ENGLAND 2004 124-116-0 (.517)
4.Pittsburgh 2004 123-117-0 (.513)
5.(TIE)Washington 1983 120-116-4 (.508)
5.(TIE)NEW ENGLAND 2003 122-118-0 (.508)

As you can see, the Patriots, after 11 games, have the second toughest schedule among the 22 teams that finished with either a 14-2 or 15-1 record. The Patriots will definitely finish with 14 or 15 wins, maybe even...let’s not jinx them.

The Patriots are not feasting on soft opposition. That is the moral of this story.

How Good Are The New England Patriots? Part 2 In A Never Ending Story

When the Patriots took the lead against the Eagles in the 4th quarter, it was time for me to close my TV. The game was over.

Since Tom Brady took over three games into the 2001 season, the Patriots are 81-1 in the regular season when they have the lead at any time during the 4th quarter.

During that same time period,, the Patriots have won 16 games when they have been trailing at any time during the 4th quarter.

Sixteen comeback victories versus one blown fourth quarter lead since 2001. Impressive.

Schedule Strength, Lane Kiffin and Brian Billick

Which two teams have had the easiest schedule so far in 2007?

The results may surprise you.

The Oakland Raiders are 3-8. Since their Super Bowl appearance in January 2003, their record has been progressing downward: 4-12, 5-11, 4-12 and 2-14. Therefore their 3-8 record this year is hardly surprising.

What is surprising is the following: after 11 weeks the Raiders have had the league’s easiest schedule.

Yes it is true. Oakland’s opponents have a combined record of 53-68. If you adjust the record to include only the games played against anyone but Oakland, the record becomes 45-65, the easiest schedule in the NFL.

Baltimore is 4-7. Not good. You’d think that their 4-7 record is a result of a tough schedule.

You’d be wrong. Baltimore has the second easiest schedule in the NFL so far: opponents are currently 46-64.

The Detroit Lions Lost To The Packers ....And Guess Who Benefited?

In my predictions post last Wednesday, I wrote about how all eyes in the NFC were on the Detroit Lions. Why? Because the Lions were in sole possession of the final wild card spot at 6-4. If the Lions could beat the Packers on Thanksgiving, they would put all the pressure on other teams to catch them.

The Lions lost to the Packers and they fell to 6-5.

This opened the door to the three teams at 5-5: the Redskins, Cardinals and Eagles.

So what happened?

The Redskins lost to Tampa Bay
The Cardinals lost to San Francisco
The Eagles lost to New England

Oh yes I almost forgot. Quite a few teams benefited from the Lions loss, just not the ones directly behind them.

The Vikings beat the Giants. The Vikings are now 5-6
The Saints beat the Panthers. The Saints are now 5-6
The Bears beat the Broncos. Chicago is now 5-6

So how does the NFC wild card picture stack up right now.

Wild Card 1: New York Giants 7-4
Wild Card 2: Detroit Lions 6-5
Redskins, Eagles, Cardinals, Vikings, Saints and Bears are all 5-6

It seems to me that 8-8 might be enough to get you into the playoffs.

Remember this:
Last season the Giants were a wild card with an 8-8 record
In 2004, the Vikings and Rams qualified as wild cards with 8-8 record
In 1999, the Lions and Cowboys both qualified as wild cards with 8-8 record

The Bears Are Still Very Much Alive, Thank You Rex Grossman, Special Teams and Defense

Two weeks ago against the Raiders Rex Grossman had a defining moment. Having been benched a month earlier in favor of Brian Griese, Rex needed redemption. He got redemption and a defining moment, at least for a few days.

Down 6-3 to Oakland, the Bears got the ball back on their own 30 yard line with just under 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter. Rex had replaced an ineffective/injured Griese late in the first half with limited success. With a 3-5 record the Bears were in a must win situation.

Rex delivered and it only took 2 passes. 10 yards to Cedric Benson then 59 yards and a TD to Brian Berrian for the go-ahead and winning touchdown. Bears win 17-6, Bears get to 4-5. Rex was the starting quarterback again.

The following week against Seattle, Rex did not deliver. Down 7 with 8:10 left in the 4th quarter, Rex took over from his 20 yard line. 3 straight completions for 47 yards brought the ball to the Seattle 42 yard line. It looked like Rex was going to tie the game with a touchdown.

It wasn’t to be. Rex was sacked, fumbled, Seattle recovered and kicked a field goal with 3:30 left, making it a 10 point game. Game Over.

And now...the Broncos game. This was an absolute must win situation in a series of must win games for both the Bears and Broncos, but especially for the Bears.

To quote CBS analyst Dan Dierdorf , “it is a must win situation for both teams, but especially for the Bears. I mean, the Broncos play in the AFC West, so they can afford a loss, but the Bears, if they lose they are done.”

So how did Rex do? Rex did extremely well. The Bears special teams as well. Defense also.

Down 34-20 with just over seven minutes left in the 4th quarter, the Bears blocked a punt, giving them great field position on the Bronco 15 yard line.

10 yards to Greg Olsen, short 1 yarder to John Gilmore set up an Adrian Petersen TD run (not that Adrian Petersen) Bears down 7, 5:13 to go.

Now it was the defense’s turn. Get the ball back to Rex with enough time on the clock to move down the field and maybe just maybe, there can be overtime.

After just one first down, Denver was forced to punt, giving the Bears one last chance with 2:58 to play. Season, as Dan Dierdorf of CBS kept repeating, was on the line.

Just like the Oakland game, Rex delivered: 5 of 8 for 47 yards, including a great throw on 4th and goal from the 3 that required a circus catch by Brian Berrian to force overtime.

Overtime was just a formality. The Bears were destined to win and Rex only threw one pass: 39 yards to Desmond Clark that brought them to the Denver 37. Adrian Petersen 4 runs for 14 yards plus a Denver penalty brought out Robbie Gould for a 39 yarder straight and true.

Bears are 5-6. Very much alive. Why?

There are five other teams at 5-6 and the Bears play 3 of them: Minnesota, Washington and New Orleans. They still have to win those games but at least they are in the equation.


An Update On Jack Del Rio, The Rambling Gambling Man

Last week I wrote in great detail how Jaguars Head Coach Jack Del Rio’s gambling tendencies have helped the Jags beat the Chargers and Titans back to back.

Well, I thought it would be nice to give an update on Jack Del Rio and whether he gambled on 4th down today against the Bills.

Obviously he did. He’s not Jack Del Rio for nothing. And it worked. Again. Sort of. Let me explain.

Situation: Jags lead 13-7, 3:20 left in the 2nd quarter. 4th and 1 at the Bills 41 yard line.

Field Goal is out of the equation. A punt in the end zone would yield a net gain of only 21 yards.
Jags went for it, but unlike their attempts against Tennessee and San Diego, they failed. Maurice Jones Drew lost 5 yards.

Bills got possession. 3 plays later, JP Losman fumbled, Jags recovered. 7 plays later, Josh Scobee kicked a 22 yard field goal. 16-7 Jags.

What did we learn from the failed 4th down attempt? That Jack Del Rio (a)has the confidence in his offensive line to get him 1 yard every time (b)has confidence in his defence to get him the ball back if his offense cannot get the one yard and (c)the team has confidence in itself to get it done as well.

Teams have to be willing to gamble in short yardage situations near midfield. The Jags do this as well as, if not better, than any other team in the NFL. Even when they fail, they seem to succeed.

An Update On Jason Campbell: Another Failed Final Drive

An update on a coach, now an update on a quarterback.

Last week I wrote in excruciating detail how Redskins quarterback Jason Campbell has failed to get the necessary points in his final drive four times this season: against the Giants, packers, Eagles and Cowboys. On each occasion Campbell had enough time to get the job done: each time he and the Redskins failed.

Today against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers it happened again.

Redskins trailed 19-13, own 7 yard line, 3:05 remaining.

Campbell did a great job running the hurry up offense, or 2 minute drill if you will. He completed his first 7 passes on the drive for 66 yards. Add in a 2 yard scramble and the Redskins had the ball on the Buc 16 yard line.

Unfortunately, that was the extent of the good news for Skins fans. Next snap incomplete and then Campbell threw an interception in the end zone.

Make that 5 games this season where Jason Campbell had enough time to get the necessary points on his final drive and failed.

What Was Herman Edwards Thinking?

The Chiefs lost to the 2-8 Raiders today at Arrowhead. KC is now 4-7, three games out of the wild card race and two games out of the AFC West division lead.

The Chiefs play the Chargers next week and the Broncos the week after. Let’s just say that beating both teams that are ahead of you in the division is imperative if the Chiefs are to make the playoffs. One loss and they are toast.

Why did the Chiefs lose to the Raiders? Two words: Herman Edwards.

I am not a big fan of Herman Edwards. I have never made a secret of my distaste for Coach Edwards, both when he was Jets Head Coach and especially now that he is Chiefs Head Coach.

I will acknowledge that Edwards does have a good record when it comes to making the playoffs, having done so in four of his six full seasons as a head coach, not including 2007.

So what exactly happened?

Situation: Chiefs trail 20-17. It is 3rd and 5 on the Raider 27 yard line. 4:41 left in the 4th quarter. Clock is moving. Chiefs have all 3 timeouts remaining.

What happened on 3rd down? Completed pass to Eddie Kennison to the 23. A circus catch by Kennison, he rolled over, ball landed between his legs. The ball was spotted reasonably close to where it should have been. It is now 4th and 1 for the Chiefs at the Raider 23.

Herman Edwards decided he was going to go for it. He called timeout to set up the all important 4th down play. Should he have gone for it? It is debatable. Quarterback Brody Croyle is making his second career start, his running back Kolby Smith is making his first career start. Should Edwards trust either Kolby or Croyle on such a gamble? The season is hanging in the balance.

I would have attempted a game tying 40 yard field goal, but that is hardly the issue. Either decision is one I would support. 4:26 with 2 timeouts is plenty of time for a defense to get the ball back in case the 4th down play fails.

The issue is what happened next. During the timeout, Edwards and his offensive coordinator Mike Solari came up with the idea of challenging the spot where Kennison caught the ball. It was a poor decision for two reasons (a)the spot was very close to being accurate and (b)Coordinator Solari had plenty of time to view the game tape to make the same determination. A close extended look at the play should have discouraged such a challenge.

Why is this a problem? The Chiefs have already called a timeout, which they cannot get back. A team that throws the challenge flag on a play that is not reversed will lose ANOTHER timeout. If a team calls a timeout, THEN decides to challenge the play, they will not get their ORIGINAL timeout back even if the call is reversed. If the call is not reversed, they will lose a timeout on top of the timeout they already called. Got all that. It really is not that complicated.

The play was not reversed. The Chiefs lost a timeout, meaning they only had one timeout remaining with 4:26 left in the fourth quarter.

A 4th down gamble was an option BEFORE the officials review. AFTER the officials review, a 4th down gamble should have been thrown out the window. Why? A failed 4th down gamble with only one timeout remaining would allow the Raiders the to run out the clock with two first downs.

Kick the field goal and then hope your defense gets you the ball back. If you miss the field goal, and from 41 yards out it is not a chip shot, then your defense will have to work even harder.

You know the rest. Chiefs gamble, Kolby Smith, who had a great game until the 4th down play, gets stuffed.

Raiders take possession, 2 first downs later, Game Over for the Chiefs.

Should Cam Cameron Be Fired?

An 0-11 record will not guarantee a head coach any kind of job security. And rightfully so. 0-11 is 0-11, and 0-11 is not good.

Cam Cameron is 0-11 in his first season as a head coach.

However, keep the following information handy.

Tom Landy went 0-11-1 in his rookie season (1960) Landry won two Super Bowls
Chuck Noll went 1-13 in his rookie season (1969) He won four Super Bowls
Bill Walsh went 2-14 in his rookie season (1979) Walsh won three Super Bowls
Jimmy Johnson went 1-15 in his rookie season (1989) Jimmy won two Super Bowls
Bill Parcells went 3-12-1 in his rookie season (1983) The Tuna won two Super Bowls

I would never suggest that Cam Cameron should keep his job based on everything I just wrote.

However, sometimes a coach needs time to build a winning team.

Just a thought.

Meet The New Boss. Same As The Old Boss. The Story of Ken Whisenhunt

Imagine that you are Arizona Cardinals Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt. Your franchise is a loser, having made the playoffs just once since 1982. The records of your predecessors are absolutely awful: Gene Stallings (22-32) Joe Bugel (20-44) Buddy Ryan (12-20) Vince Tobin (28-43) Dave McGinnis (17-4) Dennis Green (16-32)

The reason you were hired by Arizona is because you were the offensive coordinator of a Super Bowl winning team: the Steelers of January 2006. As a result, your pedigree of success was very attractive to owners of downtrodden franchises, the Cardinals being at the top of the list.

Your team is 5-5, one game out of both a wild card berth and the division lead. Nothing worthy of a parade but in the NFC it will do quite nicely.

A few days previous the team ahead of you in the wild card standings lost, that team being the Detroit Lions. The door was opened for you.

Then, earlier in the day, one of the teams that was tied with you, the Washington Redskins, also lost. The door was opened even more.

The other 5-5 team, the Philadelphia Eagles, was schedule to play the 10-0 Patriots in the evening game. Not a guaranteed loss for the Eagles mind you, but...oh who are we kidding? Eagles lose, they fall to 5-6, just like the Redskins. The door has been smashed open. All you and your team have to do is win your game to put you in a tie for the last playoff spot and keep you one game out of the division lead.

And who are you playing? The 49ers, a team with the worst offense in the league and on an 8 game losing streak.

If you’re Ken Whisenhunt, you were hired to be the Cardinals head coach for just such a game. An extremely winnable game. Stallings, Bugel, Buddy, Tobin, McGinnis and Green couldn’t win these games. But you’re Ken Whisenhunt, you are different. You’ll find a way to win against a 2-8 team. Nobody in the Cards organization cares how you do it, but you have to win this game to get to 6-5.

Except you don’t. You blow a 4 point lead in the 4th quarter, but you tie the game up at the end of regulation. You win the coin toss, you go down the field but you take a delay of game penalty on the play where your kicker puts it through the uprights.

And since you are coach of the Cardinals, you just know that your kicker will miss the official kick on the next snap.

But that’s okay, because your defense gets you the ball back, albeit on your 4 yard line with 5 minutes left in OT. Figure a couple of running plays to open up the field, then punt, force a three and out and try to score on your last drive.

But since you are coach of the Cardinals, you just know that you’ll lose the game somehow, even against a 2-8 team on an 8 game losing streak.

Your quarterback fumbles the football and the other team recovers in the end zone. The fumble was not relevant of course, since the sack would have equalled a safety and the game would have been over anyways.

So please explain to me Coach Whisenhunt: what separates you from your predecessors?

As The Who once sang in their “Won’t Get Fooled Again”, “Meet the new boss, same as the old boss”.

This was the story of the Arizona Cardinals and Ken Whisenhunt. No matter who is in charge, you can expect to lose.

A Question For Lions Head Coach Rod Marinelli

Picture the situation: The Lions are trailing the Packers 34-12, 10 minutes left in the 4th. Lions get a TD, score is now 34-18, extra point pending. If the Lions go for 2 it becomes a 14 point game, eliminating the need to go for 2 later on (assuming they get another TD of course)

Lions Head Coach Rod Marinelli elects to kick the extra point. It is now 34-19, a 15 point game. But wait...the Packers are offside. This means that the Lions have the following choice: (a)take the extra point they just kicked or (b)go for the 2 point convert from the 1 yard line (half the distance to the goal line)

Why should the Lions go for 2. Because it is easier to score from the 1 yard line than it is to score from the 2.

Marinelli decides to take the extra point. Okay, with 10 minutes left perhaps it is too much of a risk.

The Lions get the ball back quickly, score another TD with 8 minutes left, making it 34-25, extra point pending.

If Marinelli goes for 2 and makes it, it is a 7 point game. If he goes for 2 and misses, it is a 9 point game. If he kicks the extra point, it is an 8 point 8 game. Decisions are the privelege of rank, and Marinelli is the boss.

Marinelli elects to kick the extra point again...and once again Green Bay is offside.

Decisions decisions. At that moment with 8 minutes left, Coach Marinelli had the exact same decision to make.

Option 1: Take the penalty and go for 2 from the 1 yard line
Option 2: Take the extra point

Again, not to nitpick but with the ball on the 1 yard line instead of the 2, the chances of success are greater.

Coach Marinelli takes the extra point, making it 34-26, an 8 point game. This means that the Lions would need a touchdown and a 2 point convert to tie the game, assuming they can get the ball back still trailing by 8. Which they don’t, making the last few paragraphs utterly meaningless.

Joe Gibbs Had The Same Predicament

Do not think that I am picking on Lions Coach Rod Marinelli. Joe Gibbs had a similar predicament against Tampa Bay.

Situation: 11 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, Skins trail 19-3. Skins get a TD, making it 19-9.

A successful 2 point convert makes it a one possession game. If the Skins go for 2 and fail it is a 10 point game.

Joe Gibbs kicks the extra point....and just like the Packers, Tampa Bay jumps offside.

But Joe Gibbs, like Rod Marinelli, decided to take the point instead of go for 2.

Has Anyone Ever Gone For 2 After A Penalty On The Extra Point?

Yes, actually. Trailing the Redskins by 7 in Week 11 of the 2005 season, Tampa Bay scored a touchdown with 48 seconds left. They kicked the extra point but Washington jumped offside.

Bucs Coach Jon Gruden did the unthinkable. He told the referees that he would go for 2, so they spotted the ball at the 1. A failed 2 point convert would end the game. No other coach would have done it. But Gruden did. Result: Mike Alstott got the TD, although replays would show that the ball never crossed the plain of the goal line.

Just some history for team990.com readers.

That’s it for me readers. I’ll be back with my predictions for Week 13 on Thursday night, before the Dallas Green Bay game.

Next Tuesday I’ll delve into the emailbag to answer readers’ comments and questions. If you have a question or comment to make, send it my way at jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com